Updated top 25 MLB prospects
Keith Law updates his top prospects, with Byron Buxton still leading
Updated: May 31, 2014, 10:49 AM ET
By Keith Law | ESPN Insider
1. Byron Buxton | CF | Minnesota Twins (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Ft. Myers)
Preseason rank: 1
It looked like such a promising year for Buxton, but he sprained his wrist in the final week of spring training, returned in early May, then reaggravated the injury in his fifth game of the year, going back on the DL on May 8.
He still has the minors' best combination of present skills and ultimate ceiling, a potential plus-plus defender in center who hits for average and has some power, along with huge value on the bases.
2. Carlos Correa | SS | Houston Astros (age 19)
Current level: High Class A (Lancaster)
Preseason ranking: 4
Correa's always been a top offensive prospect, but he's continued to make believers out of scouts who see him at shortstop, and if he doesn't outgrow the position physically there's no reason he can't remain there at least into his mid-to-late 20s.
His performance so far has been excellent given his age, although I'd caution anyone looking at the raw stat lines (.305/.370/.458 through Tuesday) to bear in mind that Lancaster is a great place to hit, as are several other southern California League ballparks.
3. Gregory Polanco | CF | Pittsburgh Pirates (age 22)
Current level: Triple-A (Indianapolis)
Preseason ranking: 13
He's still working on some things, you know.
4. Oscar Taveras | RF | St. Louis Cardinals (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Memphis)
Preseason ranking: 5
Taveras' non-call-up (prior to Friday) was a little easier to understand given how much time he missed last year after suffering an ankle injury, as well as continued reports in spring training that he was running tentatively out of concern for the injury.
He's fine now, by all accounts, and he was called up on Friday.
5. Addison Russell | SS | Oakland Athletics (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Midland)
Preseason ranking: 3
Russell, like Buxton, has barely played this year, in his case due to a torn hamstring, and should be back fairly soon. He was impressive in spring training and has some of the best hands, both in the field and at the plate, I've ever scouted.
6. Francisco Lindor | SS | Cleveland Indians (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Akron)
Preseason ranking: 6
Lindor, one of three Puerto Rican-born players in the top 10 (along with Correa and Baez), is among the youngest regulars in the Eastern League, once again boasting strong walk and contact rates and destroying left-handed pitching while playing good defense at short.
7. Jonathan Gray | RHP | Colorado Rockies (age 22)
Current level: Double-A (Tulsa)
Preseason ranking: 12
I don't want to call anyone the minors' best pitching prospect because that seems to be the kiss of death this year, so let's just call Gray the minors' most good pitching prospect and hope that appeases Baal or Osiris or whoever else is blowing up elbows all over the minors.
I can't imagine he spends the rest of the year in Double-A; he should at least surface in Colorado's bullpen later this summer.
8. Kris Bryant | 3B | Chicago Cubs (age 22)
Current level: Double-A (Tennessee)
Preseason ranking: 15
Aside from a high strikeout rate (more than 25 percent of his plate appearances), Bryant's season so far is unimpeachable, as he's walking, hitting for average, hitting for huge power and improving the second time around the league. We'll have to see what happens to that contact rate when he gets to Triple-A, though.
9. Javier Baez | SS | Chicago Cubs (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Iowa)
Preseason ranking: 7
Speaking of Cubs who don't make enough contact in Triple-A, here's Baez, owner of the fastest bat in the minors, striking out in a third of his plate appearances so far this year for Iowa.
When he does square the ball up, he hits it hard, but he's got work to do to make more contact, especially cutting down on his aggressiveness with two strikes, before he's ready to come up and take over any position in Chicago.
10. Hunter Harvey | RHP | Baltimore Orioles (age 19)
Current level: Low Class A (Delmarva)
Preseason ranking: 38
Harvey's warming up with the weather, with one of the best curveballs in the minors and above-average velocity already from an easy delivery; he's still working on refining his changeup, but has been able to get left-handed hitters out in low A using his fastball and curve because he commands them so well.
He's probably still a good two years away from the majors but the upside is enormous.
11. Corey Seager | SS/3B | LA Dodgers (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Rancho Cucamonga)
Preseason ranking: 18
Seager scuffled a little after his call-up to Rancho last summer, but he's keeping his front side closed better and is making more contact this time around, leading the Cal League in average and doubles while ranking second in slugging percentage.
12. Archie Bradley | RHP | Arizona Diamondbacks (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Reno)
Preseason ranking: 9
Bradley probably would be in the majors by now had he not been slowed by an elbow injury that has cost him a month already and may not see him back in a game until mid-June.
He remains among the game's best pitching prospects despite his high ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, making four of his five starts so far in terrible pitchers' parks.
13. Miguel Sano | 3B | Minnesota Twins (age 21)
Current level: Out for season
Preseason ranking: 8
Sano will likely miss the entire year after Tommy John surgery -- he should be able to play winter ball and I'm hopeful the Twins send him to the Arizona Fall League first -- which costs him a lot of much-needed at-bats and reps in the field.
He remains one of the minors' best offensive prospects, as a hitter for both average and power, but the odds of him staying at third took a hit with this injury.
14. Lucas Giolito | RHP | Washington Nationals (age 19)
Current level: Low Class A (Hagerstown)
Preseason ranking: 21
Giolito is skipping a few turns in the Hagerstown rotation after he reported a little soreness and the Nats (wisely) chose to give him a rest rather than push their best prospect, who had Tommy John surgery himself back in July of 2012. He has a true three-pitch mix, all three pitches above-average to plus on the right day, with a good delivery and the size and athleticism you want from a No. 1 starter.
15. Julio Urias | LHP | Los Angeles Dodgers (age 17)
Current level: High Class A (Rancho Cucamonga)
Preseason ranking: 14
Urias missed a start in April with a sore shoulder, struggled in his first outing back, but has been very good since then, punching out 25 in 24 innings while allowing five walks, 18 hits and -- most impressive given his home park in Rancho -- no homers.
He won't turn 18 until August and will likely top out around 100 innings this year as the Dodgers try to keep him healthy for the long term, as he has top-of-the-rotation upside.
16. Mark Appel | RHP | Houston Astros (age 22)
Current level: High Class A (Lancaster)
Preseason ranking: 11
Appel's inability to adjust to Houston's four-day tandem rotation scheme isn't at all his fault, nor is it any kind of demerit toward his prospect status; the tandem system has its merits, but I wouldn't want to experiment like that with the first overall pick in the draft and my top pitching prospect.
He's been out of action for five weeks already, and while he's reportedly throwing very hard again in extended spring, I'd like to see him do it on a mound again -- preferably in Double-A, outside the tandem system entirely.
17. Eddie Butler | RHP | Colorado Rockies (age 23)
Current level: Double-A (Tulsa)
Preseason ranking: 17
Butler's season so far hasn't quite lived up to the scouting reports -- he's not missing that many bats, although he continues to generate ground balls (50 percent on the dot, according to mlbfarm.com) and throw strikes.
A guy with Butler's stuff should strike more hitters out, and he'll probably need to when he pitches in Denver at some point this year, but as long as he's still touching the mid-90s with two plus secondary pitches there's a chance he can find that extra gear.
18. Raul Mondesi | SS | Kansas City Royals (age 18)
Current level: High Class A (Wilmington)
Preseason ranking: 22
Mondesi has struggled so far in high A, especially over the past month, although a lot of that is his difficulty hitting right-handed, a switch-hitting experiment the Royals may eventually want to end so he can focus on hitting left-handed and utilizing his plus-plus speed to get on base more often.
He won't turn 19 until the week of the MLB trade deadline and remains one of the youngest regulars in any full-season league, so I'm not concerned about his performance as long as his raw tools remain intact.
19. JP Crawford | SS | Philadelphia Phillies (age 19)
Current level: Low Class A (Lakewood)
Preseason ranking: 46
After Bryant, Crawford is having the best 2014 of any player drafted in last year's first round, showing an outstanding approach at the plate and surprising doubles power along with very promising work at shortstop.
I loved him at the time of the draft but thought he'd be a slow-developing prospect; based on his work in pro ball so far, with a composite .324/.418/.440 line in his first 411 plate appearances since he signed, I might have been a little light on him.
20. Henry Owens | LHP | Boston Red Sox (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Portland)
Preseason ranking: 42
Owens' control has wobbled a bit early -- he had a three-start stretch in May where he walked 14 men across 15 2/3 innings -- but the stuff is still there, with a changeup scouts have told me might be as good as any in the majors right now and a fastball that plays up because hitters don't see the ball out of his hand. He does need to tighten up his breaking ball, and obviously throwing more strikes is rather important.
Statistical curiosity: Owens has always had a reverse platoon split, but managers still try to counter him with right-handed lineups, as 83 percent of the batters he's faced this year have been right-handed. Good job, good effort, guys.
21. Joc Pederson | OF | Los Angeles Dodgers (age 22)
Current level: Triple-A (Albuquerque)
Preseason ranking: 41
Pederson is getting a bit overrated through no fault of his own -- I think it's hard for people to see his raw stats and understand how to mentally adjust them to reflect the insanity of playing half your games in Albuquerque.
He's hitting .298/.387/.577 on the road, still playing a lot of games in hitters' parks, but that's at least a more accurate reflection of his skill set than his .410/.529/.735 line at home. Pederson is improving his approach every year, has power and speed, and is probably a better defender in center right now than anyone on L.A.'s active roster. Just don't ask him to come up and save the Dodgers' season all by himself.
22. Mookie Betts | 2B/CF | Boston Red Sox (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Portland)
Preseason ranking: 61
Betts has cooled down after putting up hallucination-inducing stats in April, hitting "just" .299/.425/.454 in May, while stealing 12 bases in 12 attempts. Everyone knew he was a great athlete, and those are generally the players you might bet on to take a sudden step forward like this, but this is way beyond any reasonable expectations.
He's second in the league in walks behind a 29-year-old who's in his 10th year in pro ball, and seventh in slugging behind six players all at least 18 months older than he is. The really interesting part is that Betts, a natural middle infielder, has made seven of his past 10 non-DH starts in center field, a position he's fast and athletic enough to handle -- and where the Red Sox may have a need.
23. Braden Shipley | RHP | Arizona (age 22)
Current level: Low Class A (South Bend)
Preseason ranking: 25
Shipley got a slightly late start after a brief elbow scare of his own, but he's been solid so far in low A, showing three above-average pitches at times with excellent control, walking two or fewer batters in every start but one so far. He's too advanced for low A, but the D-backs may be trying to keep him out of the hitter-friendly Cal League, or to minimize any eventual stay there.
24. Noah Syndergaard | RHP | New York Mets (age 22)
Current level: Triple-A (Las Vegas)
Preseason ranking: 24
We might have needed a #sadthor meme if Syndergaard's current elbow injury, which has him on the DL this week, turned out to be more serious, but an MRI showed no structural damage and he should be back dropping hammers on PCL hitters shortly. Don't let his 4.02 ERA there worry you -- his peripherals are strong and Vegas is also a lousy place to pitch.
He's throwing strikes, his curveball is still gradually improving, and he's keeping the ball down. This might delay his arrival in Queens by a bit but the long-term outlook is very positive.
25. Joey Gallo | 3B | Texas Rangers (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Myrtle Beach)
Preseason ranking: Unranked
Gallo moved up from low A to high A this year, leaving a few teammates behind to repeat the Sally League, and after drawing 48 walks and punching out 165 times for Hickory in 2013, Gallo has drawn 41 walks already and struck out 54 times for Myrtle Beach, with 18 homers to lead all of organized baseball -- even though Myrtle's not a great place to hit.
He's covering the plate better than he did last year, swinging and missing less at stuff in the zone, and laying off more pitches out of the zone, so while he's always going to be a high-strikeout guy, he doesn't look like he's going to be making annual attempts to topple Mark Reynolds' record once he reaches the majors.
Even if he strikes out 180-200 times a year, he's a very good bet to hit 40 homers and draw 80-100 walks, numbers that will play just fine even if he ends up at first base.
Honorable mentions: Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Kansas City Royals; Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets; Albert Almora, OF, Chicago Cubs; Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds; Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago Cubs; Andrew Heaney, LHP, Miami Marlins; Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins
