Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

[CSF77]

I'm pretty sure it's like I've said before. They want both Bryant and Villanueva getting consistent at bats and they aren't ready to move Bryant off 3B. Additionally, they aren't ready to promote Bryant to the majors. I think they will just have him skip AAA when they are ready to call him up to the majors. Olt's not giving them any reason not to either. I know you don't think Villanueva is much of a prospect but they clearly differ. Bryant's polished enough in most regards that he doesn't really need AAA. The one area holding him back is k rate at 26.4%. However, that's not even that bad. You can argue that's what they are waiting on. And given his walk rate, it's not that he's over aggressive like Baez is where AAA pitching would exploit him.

At best Vill is a RH complement for Valbuena. Olt is not crap right now.

Cubs need a better #4 hitter right now. This little winning streak is not sustainable with the current line up.

 

[CSF77]

You look at development first.

I look at winning games first.

Fans look at winning games.

Ownership looks at cost effectiveness.

Theo looks at development first.

When I see a hitter dominating a league and Theo has gone out and said players have to dominate a league to get promoted...well.....

Now I get the skipping AAA thing. Now will they? That is the real question. Bryant really has nothing to prove right now in the minors. He is not streaky. He has been the role model of constancy. That is needed to protect Rizzo in the line up fast.

 

[beckdawg]

At best Vill is a RH complement for Valbuena. Olt is not crap right now.

Cubs need a better #4 hitter right now. This little winning streak is not sustainable with the current line up.

You're welcome to your opinion but he's hitting .153/.237/.372 man(I assume I'm reading that right suppose you could be saying he's shit now)... As for the comments about development vs winning games, I fail to see how Bryant being in AAA changes anything. He's not winning games for the MLB cubs in either case. Villanueva is 23 and needs to see the more advanced pitching. He only walks at a 6.5% rate and is no where near the complete hitter Bryant is.

It's perhaps dumb that Bryant isn't already at the major league level. But, there's obviously some reason Bryant is still in the minors. It could be his defensive polish at 3B. It could be they want to see more out of his k rate. It could be something else play wise. Or it could be they just don't want to start his service clock yet which likely is the simplest answer. My point is that promoting him to AAA really wont change those issues. If there is a flaw in Bryant's approach at the plate, it's not something AAA would exploit. The reason Baez needs AAA is their advanced breaking pitches work against his aggressive approach. Bryant is essentially the reverse of that. He's perhaps too patient.

Bryant could probably help the MLB team right now. And I get why people would want to see him. But that's not the way it works. Promoting Bryant to AAA in my opinion doesn't speed up that process. I think they are waiting for something and once they see that out of Bryant they will call him up. Obviously that's kind of stupid but like I said, that is the MLB we live in.

 

[CSF77]

Ya he is crud IMO. His glove is decent and he can give a HR when he is hitting..lol...

My opinion was and I still feel that way. This seasons success was based off of Olt's success. Hin hitting .153 means he is not having success and they Cubs season has not been sucessful.

That reason being: They needed to replace Sori's bat in the line up. Pure and simple. Castro is not a HR hitter and he is a bad #4 hitter.

2B Bonifacio .265/.314/.350
3B Valbuena .265/.379/.429
SS Castro .270/.313/.435
1B Rizzo .282/.407/.500
CF Lake .244/.277/.450
RF Schierholtz .220/.277/.312
LF Coghlan and Ruggiano platooning
C platoon of Baker and Whiteside.

That is what they should be running right now. I would be tempted to demote Olt right nowand promote Vill. just to see if he can hit better than .150. The D would be better in a RH platoon partner.

 

[CSF77]

The problem I have with Ricky. Lake has a .277 OBA and hits #2. .450 SLG is #2 behind Rizzo. He should be in a RBI spot in the line up. IE 5/6 not 1/2. Ricky is dumb as rocks about this stuff.

Castro .313 OBA On this squad not bad....SLG .435 #3 in line up. Again not bad. He is more of a 6/7 hitter on a contender.

Valbuena has 1 thing going for him. OBA .379. He should be hitting #2 not Lake. Gets pretty dumb not seeing him on 1B with Rizzo up.

Schierholtz I believe will get better as the season goes along.

 

[CSF77]

Anyways Olt never mastered AAA last year and to be honest he is not ready for MLB pitching. Just like Jackson never mastered AAA and is still sucking up Iowa.

Ready to move on from players that failed to meet their potential.

 

[chibears55]

The problem I have with Ricky. Lake has a .277 OBA and hits #2. .450 SLG is #2 behind Rizzo. He should be in a RBI spot in the line up. IE 5/6 not 1/2. Ricky is dumb as rocks about this stuff.

Castro .313 OBA On this squad not bad....SLG .435 #3 in line up. Again not bad. He is more of a 6/7 hitter on a contender.

Valbuena has 1 thing going for him. OBA .379. He should be hitting #2 not Lake. Gets pretty dumb not seeing him on 1B with Rizzo up.

Schierholtz I believe will get better as the season goes along.

I think the only reason why Lake is batting 2nd is to have his speed at top of line up with Bonifacio...

Rizzo bats 3rd cause he their best overall hitter and they get him more ABs there...

Castro batting 4th because their 2 true power hitters ( Schierholtz and Olt ) arent hitting, So even though castro not a true power guy, he puts balls in play and gets hits which helps drives in runs.

I dont disagree with you about Valbuena but remember, usually when he starts Lake sits against Righties and coghlin plays LF which means using the faster guy in 2 hole and Valbuena with lil bit of power in middle of line up 6 where olt would bat


What kills the lineup is very little production from RF and 3B, usually your run producing players and their batting lower in lineup because of their struggles

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-T217A using Tapatalk

 

[beckdawg]

I mean let's be real here... no matter what arrangement you use it's still a stinky pig. Obviously there's varying degrees of stink but we're really not going to see much until some players start playing better or they get new players.

 

[CSF77]

I mean let's be real here... no matter what arrangement you use it's still a stinky pig. Obviously there's varying degrees of stink but we're really not going to see much until some players start playing better or they get new players.

That is forsure. But if you work with incomplete players you put them in position to maximize their productivity.

Having lots of talent lets a manager become lazy with his line ups as it is push and play. Having low talent makes the manager try to find the right mix to win games.

Boo, that is a big problem I have with Rick. He places too much into speed. OBA has always played trump to speed with top of the line up hitters.

 

[CSF77]

But lets say they promote Baez, Alcantara, Bryant after the all star game....

Say they feel Bryant can handle 3B. They want to retain Castro at SS and move Baez over to 2B. Alcantara gets pushed to the OF.

So the team starts to shape up as:

LF: Lake
CF: Bonifacio
RF: Alcantara
3B: Bryant
SS: Castro
2B: Baez
1B: Rizzo
C: Castillo

OF can go either way. I would rather move Lake to RF where his arm factors more.

Line up wise:

I would hit
Bonfacio
Alcantara.
Rizzo
Bryant
Baez
Castro
Lake
Castillo

Now it is RH heavy and this is why they drafted a LH power hitter #1 this year.

But this could very well happen this year with Soler in AAA next year to take over RF late 2015.

I still believe they should look to trade Castro and look for a short term LH power solution until Schwarber promotes. That is a glaring need going forward.

One guy I just noticed:

Seth Smith. For some reason he is crushing it this year. .302/.405/.527 in SD. They could easily offer him a 3 year deal this off season to play LF. That bridges the gap to Schwarber and opens up the possibility that Schwarber is just a good C and he sticks there.

To me that makes sense.

 

[SilenceS]

I think Bryant skipping AAA is very much a reality now. Its coming to the point that the minors are going to show no challenge and he has dropped his K rate. Baez still needs to show progression. He is still swinging and missing to much right now. If he starts to drop that then I can see all 3 of Baez, Bryant, and Alcantara coming up around the trade deadline or so. Alcantara still needs to improve some things before he gets called up as well.

 

[CSF77]

I think Bryant skipping AAA is very much a reality now. Its coming to the point that the minors are going to show no challenge and he has dropped his K rate. Baez still needs to show progression. He is still swinging and missing to much right now. If he starts to drop that then I can see all 3 of Baez, Bryant, and Alcantara coming up around the trade deadline or so. Alcantara still needs to improve some things before he gets called up as well.

Becomes interesting if that plays out.

I'm thinking Ol gets a demotion. Bryant takes over 3B F/T.

I doubt they keep Bonifacio around past this year. 30 YO. Best asset will go first in speed with age. Not a solid OBA clip. This year .321 career .322. Not really a solid investment.

So I see Alcantara getting his role post trade deadline. Makes the most sense with a cost savings to boot.

Baez I see going to 2B. Makes the most sense.

So that puts:

LF: Lake
CF: Alcantara
RF:?
3B: Bryant
SS: Castro
2B: Baez
1B: Rizzo
C: Castillo

In RF I'm just thinking they give it to Kalish after they dump off Schierholtz. Sweeney got injured and really did not do much.

Wild card is Valbuena. I don't see much P/T with Baez/Bryant and Castro being the starters. May 86 him also.

Makes more sense to bring Alcantara to the IF to give days off with Vill as a corner IF back up (Bryant late inning) with Sweeney/Rugg to back fill the OF vs keep a full time UI. Not worth the cash investment for the playing time used.

 

[brett05]

Are you sure Nate gets traded? I don't see what he gives any team right now.

 

[dabynsky]

Are you sure Nate gets traded? I don't see what he gives any team right now.

The bat is coming around to career levels now but the market was soft during a career year. Doubt he gets moved and if it does it wont be much in return.

 

[brett05]

The bat is coming around to career levels now but the market was soft during a career year. Doubt he gets moved and if it does it wont be much in return.

I agree. Nate at his norms is like 3rd/4th OF quality for a non contending team. It's why he stays put.

 

[CSF77]

I doubt he gets much at all but they need to get the 2015 squad out there more. Gives them a better idea if they need to add RF via F/A or will they suffice with what they have under control.

I'm under the opinion they should spend to retain shark. Hammel has been better this year but...are we seeing a Wood thing? 1 year jump? Is Wood what he is now or what he was last year?

Jackson they are stuck with him.

Iowa: Hendricks 6-4 3.90 ERA 1.30 WHIP. Screams a downgrade to Hammel post trade deadline.

3 LH
Wada 5-3 2.60 ERA 1.13 WHIP
Rusin 4-7 3.14 ERA 1.06 WHIP
Jokisch 5-5 3.33 ERA 1.12 WHIP

All 3 are not bad but it would be hard pressed to say any would be better than Wood.

I would retain Hammel and Shark going forward. Those 2 are solid at the top and worth the investment. Arrieta is a wild card. Seems like he is still putting it together but has shut down stuff. Wood not sure if he gets back to 2012 form. Jackson every year is less $$ to eat on a trade.

Just my opinion. Spend to retain the rotation.

 

[CSF77]

But looking at the line up in 2015:

Kalish:

CF: Alcantara
RF: Kalish
2B: Baez
1B: Rizzo
3B: Bryant
SS: Castro
LF: Lake
C Castillo

Or

RF platoon of Sweeney/Ruggiano

CF: Alcantara
SS: Castro
1B: Rizzo
3B: Bryant
2B: Baez
RF: Sweeney/Ruggiano
LF: Lake
C Castillo

Not sure kinda leaning to option #2.

Ya they could add another bat to RF but keeping the rotation intact means more right now. Out of the arms at AAA none have really jumped out. None are impact talent.

Best arm has been on the DL in AA. They are not in the position to play flip the deck with Braynt and Baez this close. They need to be gearing up to contend next year.

 

[beckdawg]

Are you sure Nate gets traded? I don't see what he gives any team right now.

I'm not sure he nets you much if anything but the idea would be a lefty off the bench. He wouldn't be a terrible 4th or 5th OF but as we've seen apparently he's not a starter. My guess is he would be best as a 2nd piece in a trade with Hammel or Shark to net them a player that the other team is hesitant to give up without him.

 

[SilenceS]

Bryant hits number 22. Its just ridiculous now.

 

[SilenceS]

I think Baez is getting jealous of all the attention Bryant is getting. He goes big fly in his first at bat tonight. #9