Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

[beckdawg]

I think Baez is getting jealous of all the attention Bryant is getting. He goes big fly in his first at bat tonight. #9

Baez is so last June. Bryant is the new hotness.

 

[SilenceS]

Iowa putting a thumping on tonight. 11-1. Baez has hit a triple and a homer. Villanueva just hit a grand slam. Baez is going to hit at least one more time maybe two if they keep scoring.

 

[CSF77]

Nice games by AAA and AA.

Alcantara 2-5
Baez 3-5 2 RBI
Villanueva 2-4 5 RBI

Bryant 2-5 1 RBI

These guys need to get promoted to the Cubs this year.

Trade out Bonifacio add Alcantara
Trade out Barney add Baez
Trade out Valbuena add Bryant
Demote Olt add Villanueva.

I would normally Run out Bryant til the 8th inning when ahead then plug in Vill as a D replacement.
On Rizzo's days off move Bryant to 1B.

Pretty basic stuff.

MI Castro and Baez

Alcantara CF and MI back up.

Team should start to take shape then.

Bryant AA: .357/.460/.722 22 HR 55 RBI Screams #4 hitter
Baez AAA: .239 9 HR 31 RBI He has struggled but he makes a solid #5 bat.
Alcantara: AAA:.275 8 HR 30 RBI. Would bring more power to the lead off over Bonifacio and more youth.
Vill is not much more than a D replacement.

Adding that gets the overhaul in motion.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Nice games by AAA and AA.

Alcantara 2-5
Baez 3-5 2 RBI
Villanueva 2-4 5 RBI

Bryant 2-5 1 RBI

These guys need to get promoted to the Cubs this year.

Trade out Bonifacio add Alcantara
Trade out Barney add Baez
Trade out Valbuena add Bryant
Demote Olt add Villanueva.

I would normally Run out Bryant til the 8th inning when ahead then plug in Vill as a D replacement.
On Rizzo's days off move Bryant to 1B.

Pretty basic stuff.

MI Castro and Baez

Alcantara CF and MI back up.

Team should start to take shape then.

Bryant AA: .357/.460/.722 22 HR 55 RBI Screams #4 hitter
Baez AAA: .239 9 HR 31 RBI He has struggled but he makes a solid #5 bat.
Alcantara: AAA:.275 8 HR 30 RBI. Would bring more power to the lead off over Bonifacio and more youth.
Vill is not much more than a D replacement.

Adding that gets the overhaul in motion.

Everyone is ready to throw the book at Olt. He's had less than 200 MLB ABs. Look at Josh Donaldson. He's a perfect example of patience.

Also, why trade Valbuena? He's been a great bat for us this year and he can play multiple positions. He's a great back up option and can be a utility MI. As for Villanueva, he's been sucking at AAA. Why are we calling him up just to sit on the bench? We should let him develop and then trade him for pitching. Or if someone ends up as a bust, we have a back up plan.

I get the desire to get rid of dead weight, but some of these moves make absolutely no sense.

 

[dabynsky]

The flipping of the calendar to June seems to have done something for Javier Baez. His June slash line is now .364/.423/.773. It isn't a Kris Bryant slash line (.394/.500/.939), but Baez seems back on track finally.

 

[beckdawg]

Everyone is ready to throw the book at Olt. He's had less than 200 MLB ABs. Look at Josh Donaldson. He's a perfect example of patience.

Not really a great comparison. Even prior to vision issues with the rangers Olt came up to the majors and posted this .152/.250/.182 over 40 PAs which is remarkably similar to his current .153/.237/.372 over 156 PAs. The bigger worry is last year in AAA he hit .213/.317/.422 and .168/.276/.275. Ok so he had vision issues. In 2011 he had .267/.387/.504 at A+ as a 22 year old. While those numbers aren't terrible, he was about 2 years older than a lot of the players that end up there. Case in point, Almora turned 20 in April and is in A+. So, he should have arguably dominated the level of competition. Donaldson as a 22 year old in A+ hit .330/.391/.564. He was also far more consistent in his play in the minors. He had numerous minor seasons over .330 OBP where as Olt struggled quite a bit after A ball save for one really good AA season.

Additionally, Olt's glove is what's suppose to play big time and yet he's roughly 0 in UZR/150. Donaldson has been above 10 every year he's been at 3B. Also, Olt is getting murdered with k's. He currently sits at 35.3% k rate. Donaldson has never struck out that much at any level with a minimum of 50+ PAs.

Ultimately the problem becomes that Olt needs to be down in AAA. However, at this point Villanueva and Bryant are better prospects and Olt is 25. How long do you realistically hold out hope for him? Bryant likely will be in the majors before year end. If he plays well Olt's toast here. He can't play 1B because Rizzo is there and Bryant likely would be the better option at 3B. That then means you're trying to find time for him in AAA but as I said before, Villanueva's probably a better prospect. He could likely see time at 1B in Iowa but even then he hast to hit. And even if he does hit, you're talking about someone who will be 26 in August. As such, it's entirely possible he doesn't survive roster cuts at the end of the season.

 

[Jntg4]

Not really a great comparison. Even prior to vision issues with the rangers Olt came up to the majors and posted this .152/.250/.182 over 40 PAs which is remarkably similar to his current .153/.237/.372 over 156 PAs. The bigger worry is last year in AAA he hit .213/.317/.422 and .168/.276/.275. Ok so he had vision issues. In 2011 he had .267/.387/.504 at A+ as a 22 year old. While those numbers aren't terrible, he was about 2 years older than a lot of the players that end up there. Case in point, Almora turned 20 in April and is in A+. So, he should have arguably dominated the level of competition. Donaldson as a 22 year old in A+ hit .330/.391/.564. He was also far more consistent in his play in the minors. He had numerous minor seasons over .330 OBP where as Olt struggled quite a bit after A ball save for one really good AA season.

Additionally, Olt's glove is what's suppose to play big time and yet he's roughly 0 in UZR/150. Donaldson has been above 10 every year he's been at 3B. Also, Olt is getting murdered with k's. He currently sits at 35.3% k rate. Donaldson has never struck out that much at any level with a minimum of 50+ PAs.

Ultimately the problem becomes that Olt needs to be down in AAA. However, at this point Villanueva and Bryant are better prospects and Olt is 25. How long do you realistically hold out hope for him? Bryant likely will be in the majors before year end. If he plays well Olt's toast here. He can't play 1B because Rizzo is there and Bryant likely would be the better option at 3B. That then means you're trying to find time for him in AAA but as I said before, Villanueva's probably a better prospect. He could likely see time at 1B in Iowa but even then he hast to hit. And even if he does hit, you're talking about someone who will be 26 in August. As such, it's entirely possible he doesn't survive roster cuts at the end of the season.

Villanueva is nothing special either. Decent second-10 range prospect, not getting jittery over the thought of a promotion.

 

[SilenceS]

Villanueva is nothing special either. Decent second-10 range prospect, not getting jittery over the thought of a promotion.

Villanueva has a good glove at third. He did well second half of last year with the bat. What makes Villanueva not a real good prospect is lack of power. He would be better suited moving to second in my opinion.

 

[Jntg4]

Villanueva has a good glove at third. He did well second half of last year with the bat. What makes Villanueva not a real good prospect is lack of power. He would be better suited moving to second in my opinion.

Yep, he's decent and I like him, but I don't see him as an impact player by any means... feel a bit more time at AAA wouldn't hurt his development anyway.

 

[SilenceS]

So, I brought this up on another site and some posters got what I am saying. So, people are all about trading Castro. I was looking around and I came across Roberto Clemente stats.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/castrst01.shtml

Top is Clemente stats and under him is Castro. I bet the Pirates were glad they did not traded him. I am not comparing Castro as the next Clemente. What I am trying to say is development happens at the majors. Castro has move development in him. He will be 25 next year and that when Clemente exploded. This is why I am so against trading Castro. He still has insane eye to hand coordination in the box and the power has been much better this year. He is on pace for over 40 doubles and over 20 homers. That is fucking great for a SS in this league. This is why I say the internet is trying to ruin baseball. People think if a player isnt a star by 21 like Trout then he never will be. It doesnt make sense. People grow and learn at different rates. It takes the light bulb to go off to put it all together. I would take my chances with Castro for the next couple of years.

 

[nwfisch]

Bu bu but Mike Olt was a top prospect!

Can't miss they said!

 

[chibears55]

Bu bu but Mike Olt was a top prospect!

Can't miss they said!

where did he go ? thought he was just getting benched for now

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-T217A using Tapatalk

 

[beckdawg]

Villanueva is nothing special either. Decent second-10 range prospect, not getting jittery over the thought of a promotion.

I wasn't suggesting he was amazing just that he was more than what Olt is at this point

 

[Captain Obvious]

Not really a great comparison. Even prior to vision issues with the rangers Olt came up to the majors and posted this .152/.250/.182 over 40 PAs which is remarkably similar to his current .153/.237/.372 over 156 PAs. The bigger worry is last year in AAA he hit .213/.317/.422 and .168/.276/.275. Ok so he had vision issues. In 2011 he had .267/.387/.504 at A+ as a 22 year old. While those numbers aren't terrible, he was about 2 years older than a lot of the players that end up there. Case in point, Almora turned 20 in April and is in A+. So, he should have arguably dominated the level of competition. Donaldson as a 22 year old in A+ hit .330/.391/.564. He was also far more consistent in his play in the minors. He had numerous minor seasons over .330 OBP where as Olt struggled quite a bit after A ball save for one really good AA season.

Additionally, Olt's glove is what's suppose to play big time and yet he's roughly 0 in UZR/150. Donaldson has been above 10 every year he's been at 3B. Also, Olt is getting murdered with k's. He currently sits at 35.3% k rate. Donaldson has never struck out that much at any level with a minimum of 50+ PAs.

Ultimately the problem becomes that Olt needs to be down in AAA. However, at this point Villanueva and Bryant are better prospects and Olt is 25. How long do you realistically hold out hope for him? Bryant likely will be in the majors before year end. If he plays well Olt's toast here. He can't play 1B because Rizzo is there and Bryant likely would be the better option at 3B. That then means you're trying to find time for him in AAA but as I said before, Villanueva's probably a better prospect. He could likely see time at 1B in Iowa but even then he hast to hit. And even if he does hit, you're talking about someone who will be 26 in August. As such, it's entirely possible he doesn't survive roster cuts at the end of the season.

What I meant by Donaldson is basically what SilenceS said, sometime people develop later. We should be more patient. I'm all for giving him more time at AAA.

I am a big advocate of UZR, but this is with a total of 68 balls in his zone at 3rd. That's not even close enough to say that that is reliable.

Time is what Olt needs. Time is what Olt does not have. I still think that Olt can be valuable for us, whether it be as a bench player(I feel like he could make a hell of a PH), or in a trade after some time in AAA to develop.

 

[beckdawg]

Top is Clemente stats and under him is Castro. I bet the Pirates werent glad they traded him. I am not comparing Castro as the next Clemente. What I am trying to say is development happens at the majors.

By bring the two up together you sort of are comparing them. That being said, I get the point you're getting at. And Castro can improve. But he can also be what he is now for the rest of his career. His increase in power is nice but his drop in OBP from the .340's his first two years is a problem. If it were something flukey like the way Rizzo hit lefties last year I would be more jazzed about Castro's hopes. But, it's not a case of bad BABIP. He's at .303 BABIP. He's hitting .314 vs lefties and .267 vs righties. And he's not walking at a statistically significant difference from past years.

If we look at similar player types to what you're talking about someone like Jimmy Rollins. However, when he was at his peak years he was 25-30 homers, 35-40+ SB with a .340 OBP and often very good defense. Derek Jeter was in the 20-25 HR range with 25-30 SB and a .370 OBP with below average defense. Ian Desmond is a 20-25/20-25 type with around .320 OBP and average defense.

Ultimately, Castro could end up as one of those 20-25 HR guys. However, he's seemingly lost most if not all of his speed which would be a knock on him compared to those 3. He also has been in the .320 OBP range and average defense which would make him a worse Desmond. That's not to say that is a bad baseball player. At SS that's probably above average. I just want people to realize given the way Castro is developing there's limited upside there. If he was still stealing 20-25 bases his upside would go up substantially. If he was more like his rookie years OBP wise his upside would go up substantially. However, both of these things are on a decline not improving.

That's why I have trouble buying a giant season coming for Castro. It's not a case of him just being familiar and the next guy is new and shiney for me. I just think he's an above average SS and that's all he's going to be. There's no shame in that. However, until we see more from him I can't really buy him being anymore than that.

 

[SilenceS]

Did you look at Clementes stats?

 

[Parade_Rain]

Bu bu but Mike Olt was a top prospect!

Can't miss they said!

Who said this?

 

[SilenceS]

By bring the two up together you sort of are comparing them. That being said, I get the point you're getting at. And Castro can improve. But he can also be what he is now for the rest of his career. His increase in power is nice but his drop in OBP from the .340's his first two years is a problem. If it were something flukey like the way Rizzo hit lefties last year I would be more jazzed about Castro's hopes. But, it's not a case of bad BABIP. He's at .303 BABIP. He's hitting .314 vs lefties and .267 vs righties. And he's not walking at a statistically significant difference from past years.

If we look at similar player types to what you're talking about someone like Jimmy Rollins. However, when he was at his peak years he was 25-30 homers, 35-40+ SB with a .340 OBP and often very good defense. Derek Jeter was in the 20-25 HR range with 25-30 SB and a .370 OBP with below average defense. Ian Desmond is a 20-25/20-25 type with around .320 OBP and average defense.

Ultimately, Castro could end up as one of those 20-25 HR guys. However, he's seemingly lost most if not all of his speed which would be a knock on him compared to those 3. He also has been in the .320 OBP range and average defense which would make him a worse Desmond. That's not to say that is a bad baseball player. At SS that's probably above average. I just want people to realize given the way Castro is developing there's limited upside there. If he was still stealing 20-25 bases his upside would go up substantially. If he was more like his rookie years OBP wise his upside would go up substantially. However, both of these things are on a decline not improving.

That's why I have trouble buying a giant season coming for Castro. It's not a case of him just being familiar and the next guy is new and shiney for me. I just think he's an above average SS and that's all he's going to be. There's no shame in that. However, until we see more from him I can't really buy him being anymore than that.

So, your knock on him is he doesnt steal enough bags to go with a line conceivably this year that can be 20 homer and 40 doubles. You also stick with OBP when wOBA is the better way to go. Not all bags are created equal. The premise was that Clemente did not walk much and showed little power 5 years into the league then bursted through. I compared them because they walk at the same rate and seem to similar type hitters. Clemente never stole more then like 12 bags in a season. Numbers do not tell where a player will be the next year. Also, Castro BABIP is signficantly down from his career average even this year.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Ultimately, Castro could end up as one of those 20-25 HR guys. However, he's seemingly lost most if not all of his speed which would be a knock on him compared to those 3.

How does one lose most of his speed and he's not even 25 yet? Makes no sense.

 

[SilenceS]

How does one lose most of his speed and he's not even 25 yet? Makes no sense.

He hasnt lost his speed. Its about the same. He just stopped stealing bags. He wasnt very good at it to begin with. Stealing bags means nothing if you are getting caught half the time.