Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

[beckdawg]

Lets face it Alcantara, Baez and Castro are all not D wizzes. So seeing how Castro is the SS you let the other pieces fall where they may.

Alcantara has been fine at 2B defensively. He has a .948 fielding% over 731 chances. Maybe that's not Barney level but it's good enough. What worries me about moving all these players around is you are quite likely to end up with a pretty poor defensive team. For example, let's say you put Schwarber in LF, Bryant at 3B, Castro at SS, Baez at 2B, and Alcantara in CF you are arguably playing 5 players who are average to below average defensively for their positions. I guess I just don't buy the theory of Alcantara playing the OF especially CF. Lake is a similar player having played numerous infield positions in the minors and has been well below average in CF with a -22.6 UZR/100. He's been ok in LF but the standards there are much lower. I also don't like that they are moving people all around in positions they didn't come up playing in the minors. I mean I get it. They have a crowded infield and Castro as a potential long term piece to work around.

I get that all of these players have bats that should play wherever. However, Alcantara's best position fielding% wise is 2B. Baseball ref only has Baez playing SS though i thought he'd played some 2B in AAA. Anyways, at SS he has a .938 fielding%. Bryant has been some what poor at .927 fielding%. To put that into perspective, Castro was a .942 fielding% at SS in the minors. Since joining the majors, Castro has gone from .950 to a peak last year of .967. Obviously many would consider fielding% a bad metric for defense but they don't have UZR for minor leagues least near as I can tell.

So, given that data if we assume similar progression to what Castro has and where he is right now you can say that Alcantara is probably an average to plus defender at 2B in time. Baez likely could end up as good as Castro defensively in time at SS. However, you would likely expect him to be a plus defender at a slightly less demanding 3B. It may be too early to say on Bryant at 3B as he's only had around a full year of data. But thus far his results are worrying defensively.

As such, I really don't want to see Alcantara anywhere but 2B. I just feel it's either Baez at 3B or SS. Hopefully we get to see Alcantara in the majors about a month from now at 2B to get some idea if he is MLB ready or not. I strongly doubt Baez is going anywhere until his k rate falls substantially from 34.3%. He may be in AAA the rest of the year. I've already been on record as saying I don't think Bryant needs AAA. So, we could potentially see him in the majors this year too. If that situation plays out and Alcantara hits it will be curious to see what they do with Baez. Presumably they would play Bryant at 3B the rest of the season at the very least. However, you could quickly run into the situation where Bryant is already up playing 3B and Alcantara is up playing 2B. If both are hitting then you run into the situation outlined with Baez at SS or they could give Bryant a look in RF during spring training to have the option of 3B for Baez.

 

[SilenceS]

Alcantara is playing center.

 

[SilenceS]

I can totally see Alcantara being the in the Bonafacio role. Playing center and second from time to time. Baez is either going to second leaving Bryant at third or Bryant is going to right and leaving third and second open for Baez and Alcantara.

 

[beckdawg]

I can totally see Alcantara being the in the Bonafacio role. Playing center and second from time to time. Baez is either going to second leaving Bryant at third or Bryant is going to right and leaving third and second open for Baez and Alcantara.

Perhaps but Bonifacio isn't particularly good in CF with a career -3.2 UZR/150 there. If Baez isn't at SS, I'm really hoping he goes to 3B rather than 2B unless Alcantara just doesn't hit in the majors.

 

[SilenceS]

Perhaps but Bonifacio isn't particularly good in CF with a career -3.2 UZR/150 there. If Baez isn't at SS, I'm really hoping he goes to 3B rather than 2B unless Alcantara just doesn't hit in the majors.

I think its a big long shot he stays at short. Castro is raking this year and they arent going to move him off for an unproven talent.

Castro now at a .815 OPS that ranks second among SS.

 

[SilenceS]

Iowa update

Alcantara is 1 for 3 with a K

Baez is 1 for 2 with an IBB

Bryant is 0 for 3 with a K

I said this on another site. Baez will never be steal more than around 20 bags in a season, but he is very good at stealing bases. He is at like a 82% clip in the minors. He chooses his spots well and I have read scouts that rave about his base running instincts.

 

[beckdawg]

I think its a big long shot he stays at short. Castro is raking this year and they arent going to move him off for an unproven talent.

Castro now at a .815 OPS that ranks second among SS.

I can see that being a long shot like you mention. Like I said, I'm kind of glad Alcantara may get a shot in the majors before Baez. That way we at least see how he does prior to having to make a final decision of Baez. Realistically, it feels like Bryant to RF makes a lot of sense. They have a giant hole there this year and Schierholtz is gonna be gone after the season. Valbuena could play 3B until whenever Baez is ready and if Bryant progresses fast in AAA this year you could feasibly talk about him as the starter in RF in training camp or early April.

If his defense was better at 3B I don't think you'd really want to consider moving him. But even the projections on his defense just put it at a average 50. His arm is a 60 so should play well in RF and given Soler has the injury bug who knows if and when he's going to be ready for the majors. That said, it could be sort of tricky from an experience stand point as they likely will want to move Villanueva back up to AAA. I suppose you wouldn't have to do that until Villanueva starts raking which he's yet to do at AA.

 

[SilenceS]

It took him 4 at bats but Bryant goes big fly for a 2 run dinger. Opposite field shot as well.

 

[nwfisch]

:fap:

 

[SilenceS]

:fap:

Dont hate because the legend of Bryant grows. He already got two handy's from groupies for that homer just wait to see what he gets when he is at Wrigley!

 

[nwfisch]

I'm not jealous, I'm actually happy :shrug:

 

[Mr. Cub]

Bryantisthefuture!

 

[CSF77]

Alcantara has been fine at 2B defensively. He has a .948 fielding% over 731 chances. Maybe that's not Barney level but it's good enough. What worries me about moving all these players around is you are quite likely to end up with a pretty poor defensive team. For example, let's say you put Schwarber in LF, Bryant at 3B, Castro at SS, Baez at 2B, and Alcantara in CF you are arguably playing 5 players who are average to below average defensively for their positions. I guess I just don't buy the theory of Alcantara playing the OF especially CF. Lake is a similar player having played numerous infield positions in the minors and has been well below average in CF with a -22.6 UZR/100. He's been ok in LF but the standards there are much lower. I also don't like that they are moving people all around in positions they didn't come up playing in the minors. I mean I get it. They have a crowded infield and Castro as a potential long term piece to work around.

Sure and ask Junior Lake how being shoved into LF works for him. Not to mention Alcantara made a nice running catch to deep left center. Due is athletic. Enough said.

 

[CSF77]

I can see that being a long shot like you mention. Like I said, I'm kind of glad Alcantara may get a shot in the majors before Baez. That way we at least see how he does prior to having to make a final decision of Baez. Realistically, it feels like Bryant to RF makes a lot of sense. They have a giant hole there this year and Schierholtz is gonna be gone after the season. Valbuena could play 3B until whenever Baez is ready and if Bryant progresses fast in AAA this year you could feasibly talk about him as the starter in RF in training camp or early April.

If his defense was better at 3B I don't think you'd really want to consider moving him. But even the projections on his defense just put it at a average 50. His arm is a 60 so should play well in RF and given Soler has the injury bug who knows if and when he's going to be ready for the majors. That said, it could be sort of tricky from an experience stand point as they likely will want to move Villanueva back up to AAA. I suppose you wouldn't have to do that until Villanueva starts raking which he's yet to do at AA.

I believe Bryant will be a 3B IMO. Iowa had no clear cut RF and a top 20 3B prospect. The 3B prospect got the boot.

The way I believe this works out is Baez and Bryant come up next year after the 172 day cut off hits. The season has 185 days (they include days off) so 2 weeks in then they can get that year for free. If they come up in sept then those days count against 2015.

What I see is Bonifacio traded. Alcantara taking over CF vs LH pitching and 2B vs LH pitching. Just like the season started before Sweeney went down. I do not see any other major moves.

Reason is Alcantara I do not believe will cost the Cubs a arm and a leg to retain down the road. Bryant will and Baez most likely will get costly. They will try to get the most control with them.

 

[dabynsky]

I believe Bryant will be a 3B IMO. Iowa had no clear cut RF and a top 20 3B prospect. The 3B prospect got the boot.

The way I believe this works out is Baez and Bryant come up next year after the 172 day cut off hits. The season has 185 days (they include days off) so 2 weeks in then they can get that year for free. If they come up in sept then those days count against 2015.

What I see is Bonifacio traded. Alcantara taking over CF vs LH pitching and 2B vs LH pitching. Just like the season started before Sweeney went down. I do not see any other major moves.

Reason is Alcantara I do not believe will cost the Cubs a arm and a leg to retain down the road. Bryant will and Baez most likely will get costly. They will try to get the most control with them.

40 man roster spots are also a factor in this as well. Baez and Bryant can stay off the 40 man through the offseason. Vizcaino and Alcantara are already on the 40 man so when rosters expand I would look to those two getting promoted.

 

[beckdawg]

Sure and ask Junior Lake how being shoved into LF works for him. Not to mention Alcantara made a nice running catch to deep left center. Due is athletic. Enough said.

Lots of people are athletic. Doesn't mean they are good defenders in CF. I'm not saying you're view is invalid. It could happen. I just hope it doesn't. If we're talking about guys like Logan Watkins and Lake who aren't really prospects in the sense that they aren't top 10 guys then fine I see the reasoning. You need utility if your path appears to be bench player. But Alcantara is a legitimate prospect almost as much as the top 4 guys. He's got a legit shot to be an average or better starter. After he showed he couldn't play SS long term they moved him to 2B and he's shown enough there to stay long term. I just don't like the idea that maybe he can play CF because he's athletic.

Again, to use the Bonifacio example people have tossed around, yeah Bonifacio can play CF but that doesn't mean he's a good defender there. Many believe he can be a plus defender at 2B and I've seen some scouting reports that he may be plus-plus there in time. At CF, you're likely talking average at best and maybe not even that good.

They haven't had to make the decision on Bryant and Baez yet so they didn't. Both are playing SS and 3B respectively. The difference here if you move Bryant to the OF is it arguably make him a better defender. CF is actually more difficult than 2B. Corner OF is easier than 3B though given we're likely talking about RF for Bryant you do need a strong arm which he does have. If we're talking this year, if we assume given his struggles in AAA that Baez will be in AAA until say September at the earliest, I think you can play Bryant and Alcantara ad 3B/2B respectively since again you don't have to make the decision. Assuming they call Baez up in September with the other two potentially sooner, you would then need to make the decision either way with likely Bryant or Alcantara seeing a month or so in the OF.

Again, I think moving Alcantara to the OF just makes them a worse defensive team. Additionally, if we look to FA going into 2015, you have Rasmus and Span as potential CF you could sign short term or longer term in the likely case of Rasmus. In RF it's not nearly as nice. Norichika Aoki would be ok and similar to Span. Cruz has played there in the past but he's played more in LF this year and has been rather bad there this year in RF(-33.3 UZR/150 in RF vs -4.6 in LF). Given his advancing age that's not all that surprising. So, you arguably have more options at CF.

 

[CSF77]

Lots of people are athletic. Doesn't mean they are good defenders in CF. I'm not saying you're view is invalid. It could happen. I just hope it doesn't. If we're talking about guys like Logan Watkins and Lake who aren't really prospects in the sense that they aren't top 10 guys then fine I see the reasoning. You need utility if your path appears to be bench player. But Alcantara is a legitimate prospect almost as much as the top 4 guys. He's got a legit shot to be an average or better starter. After he showed he couldn't play SS long term they moved him to 2B and he's shown enough there to stay long term. I just don't like the idea that maybe he can play CF because he's athletic.

I'll bet that he just wants to be on a MLB roster and will do anything it takes. It goes beyond number crunching and goes into the human factor.

I do not see them moving Castro off of SS. Not to mention he is putting up some solid production right now. Now in a few years when Almora develops? Leave that as a question mark because he has at least 2 more years then I could see Castro moved.

The reality here decisions are not just based off of saber-metrics. They are a part of the evaluation process but they by no means are a guide on how the decision process is made with talent.

Some times you have to go with Castro is producing. Alcantara is producing. Baez is struggling. Bonifacio is in his 30's and after Apr his BA regressed. There is a clear need for a younger option at lead off going forward. Alcantara fills that need. So you plug and play like they did with Bonifacio until they can fill the roster with more long term options and get rid of more replacement players.

It is more like a jigsaw puzzle. Piece here and there, with flexibility in mind. Now 5 years down the road sure I'll bet these kids will have defined roles but until then flexibility will be needed.

It is a process.

 

[CSF77]

40 man roster spots are also a factor in this as well. Baez and Bryant can stay off the 40 man through the offseason. Vizcaino and Alcantara are already on the 40 man so when rosters expand I would look to those two getting promoted.

What was said Viz is they wanted to start him in Daytona due to the weather. They babied him along. When Tenn warmed up he went there.

This year it was more about conditioning his arm for use vs developing him.. He is major league quality now.

I see him in the closer mix and there is a clear need on this team. On avg a SP should avg 6 IP per game. That leaves 3 IP to cover on Avg. Right now they have 2 solid options in Ramirez and Rondon. They need a 3rd body. Add to that days off. The better this team gets the more save situations. They need 3 solid options at the back end.

 

[CSF77]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/chc...md=20140619&content_id=80666294&vkey=news_chc

 

[dabynsky]

What was said Viz is they wanted to start him in Daytona due to the weather. They babied him along. When Tenn warmed up he went there.

This year it was more about conditioning his arm for use vs developing him.. He is major league quality now.

I see him in the closer mix and there is a clear need on this team. On avg a SP should avg 6 IP per game. That leaves 3 IP to cover on Avg. Right now they have 2 solid options in Ramirez and Rondon. They need a 3rd body. Add to that days off. The better this team gets the more save situations. They need 3 solid options at the back end.

Vizcaino has been on a strict schedule all year of pitching an inning every third day. He has pitched on one days rest only twice all year as far as I've seen. So I would expect that until they can hide him in a deep pen for him to stay in AAA. But I agree his stuff is major league caliber now. Hopefully no setbacks because he could be special even as just a reliever.