Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

[beckdawg]

The reality here decisions are not just based off of saber-metrics. They are a part of the evaluation process but they by no means are a guide on how the decision process is made with talent.

I mean I get what you're saying but it's not just saber-metrics with regard to this. There were scouting questions surrounding Bryants ability to stay at 3B long prior to any talk of Alcantara in the OF and such. Most have said they think he can stay there but it's not like he's a lock. And overshadowed in his obviously monster offensive career thus far is he's not been very good fielding percent wise in the minors. He has 20 errors in 276 chances at 3B for a .928 fielding%. We've talked about Baez's struggles at SS. Last year Baez had a .932 fielding% or 44 errors in 644 chances. Now, I've personally thought that was slightly over blown even before the season. This year Baez has 10 errors in 239 chances or .958 fielding%. However, if there are concerns about Baez at SS coming into this years there should obviously be strong concerns about Bryant at 3B who has obviously had a worse fielding%.

Also, as an aside, I didn't realize Baez's fielding had improved that much in AAA. Over a full year this year he's likely on a 20-25 error pace. I had thought he was more in that .940% range but he's nearly in the .960% range. That puts him on pace with Castro's career major league .962% and Castro upped his minor league numbers in the majors. So, an argument could be made that Baez potentially could be better than average there in the future.

 

[CSF77]

I mean I get what you're saying but it's not just saber-metrics with regard to this. There were scouting questions surrounding Bryants ability to stay at 3B long prior to any talk of Alcantara in the OF and such. Most have said they think he can stay there but it's not like he's a lock. And overshadowed in his obviously monster offensive career thus far is he's not been very good fielding percent wise in the minors. He has 20 errors in 276 chances at 3B for a .928 fielding%. We've talked about Baez's struggles at SS. Last year Baez had a .932 fielding% or 44 errors in 644 chances. Now, I've personally thought that was slightly over blown even before the season. This year Baez has 10 errors in 239 chances or .958 fielding%. However, if there are concerns about Baez at SS coming into this years there should obviously be strong concerns about Bryant at 3B who has obviously had a worse fielding%.

Also, as an aside, I didn't realize Baez's fielding had improved that much in AAA. Over a full year this year he's likely on a 20-25 error pace. I had thought he was more in that .940% range but he's nearly in the .960% range. That puts him on pace with Castro's career major league .962% and Castro upped his minor league numbers in the majors. So, an argument could be made that Baez potentially could be better than average there in the future.

He will most likey play 3B until his lacking of D over comes his O.

With Lake and Vitters their O did not have Bryant's upside so they were moved off position.

Olt has solid D but his O is lacking.

What is happening is they were giving Olt a shot to take 3B going forward. He did not adapt to the league. Now Bryant got bumped above Christian.

From what has been given 3B is Bryant's to lose now. Only thing that could change it is something clicks with Olt and he starts on a .400 BA run in a hot streak. That is 99% unlikely with his league leading swing and miss rate.

They are not going to trade for a 3B. That is a given.


Baez is another story all together. His D has improved and it should be interesting how it all plays out. If his glove is better than Castro's at SS then I see Castro moved to 2B or traded as a SS for a pitching prospect. His value is peaking right now and a team like the Yanks could give up a decent package for Castro and Hammel.

 

[Captain Obvious]

He will most likey play 3B until his lacking of D over comes his O.

With Lake and Vitters their O did not have Bryant's upside so they were moved off position.

Olt has solid D but his O is lacking.

What is happening is they were giving Olt a shot to take 3B going forward. He did not adapt to the league. Now Bryant got bumped above Christian.

From what has been given 3B is Bryant's to lose now. Only thing that could change it is something clicks with Olt and he starts on a .400 BA run in a hot streak. That is 99% unlikely with his league leading swing and miss rate.

They are not going to trade for a 3B. That is a given.


Baez is another story all together. His D has improved and it should be interesting how it all plays out. If his glove is better than Castro's at SS then I see Castro moved to 2B or traded as a SS for a pitching prospect. His value is peaking right now and a team like the Yanks could give up a decent package for Castro and Hammel.

At 24? No way.

Until we have a better option at SS, Castro stays. If we get a better option at SS, move him to 2B. If we have better options at both, try to move someone to the OF. Castro is a cost controlled player for the next 5 years. Plus, he's only going to get better. The kid is 24. He's not old by any means. I just don't see what we have to gain by trading him.

 

[FirstTimer]

At 24? No way.

Until we have a better option at SS, Castro stays. If we get a better option at SS, move him to 2B. If we have better options at both, try to move someone to the OF. Castro is a cost controlled player for the next 5 years. Plus, he's only going to get better. The kid is 24. He's not old by any means. I just don't see what we have to gain by trading him.

Unless he gets worse, like we've already seen him do for 2-3 years prior to this one.

 

[beckdawg]

Baez is another story all together. His D has improved and it should be interesting how it all plays out. If his glove is better than Castro's at SS then I see Castro moved to 2B or traded as a SS for a pitching prospect. His value is peaking right now and a team like the Yanks could give up a decent package for Castro and Hammel.

See, while I can see your point of view, I see Baez's defense improving another way. While we could have the SS conversations eventually about Castro, you can also avoid that by just playing him at 3B which is also a more valuable position than 2B. And if he's average to above average at SS, he should be above average maybe better at third. That's why I view Baez as a SS or 3B rather than 2B. Baez moving to 3B would arguably make him a better defender and his bat plays the same. Bryant moving to RF would arguably make him a better defender and his bat plays the same. Alcantara moving to CF makes him an arguably worse defender.

That's why I view it as SS or 3B only for Baez. That being said, I don't think they will move Bryant off this year at least until maybe September because I don't think Baez will hit enough to force the issue before the end of the AAA season. A realistic scenario is Bryant smashes AAA for the next month or so and does enough to get called up in August. They can then leave him at 3B until the AAA season finishes at which time they likely will call up Baez too. They also could give Alcantara the majority of looks at 2B but if they keep Valbuena maybe also mix him in some at CF as you and others suggest. They could also do the same with Bryant and RF if they so chose to get Valbuena at bats and play arguably the best line up they have down the stretch.

 

[chibears55]

@BruceMiles2112: Theo says he does not foresee Bryant coming up to #Cubs this season

Which means then he most likely wont be up til may 2015 to save a full year..
So then they probably go with Valbuena to start season at 3B. Can't see them getting another 3B to be looking over his shoulder..

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[chibears55]

@ESPNChiCubs: Kyle Schwarber will play mostly LF the rest of this yr . He will catch a little and DH then they will decide in offseason where he'll play

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[Boobaby1]

@BruceMiles2112: Theo says he does not foresee Bryant coming up to #Cubs this season

Which means then he most likely wont be up til may 2015 to save a full year..
So then they probably go with Valbuena to start season at 3B. Can't see them getting another 3B to be looking over his shoulder..

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The only way he stays down next year is if they feel he needs to work on a few things. If he is raking in AAA for the rest of this year and hitting like Rizzo was for power, and if he starts to iron out any defensive issues, there is no way in hell he stays down there at the beginning of next year and you can forget about any time clock.

You can harm a player if he is not challenged and kept at a certain level as he will grow frustrated, especially when you look at the state of the Cubs in which he can probably hit better than most (pathetic as that is) on the team right now.

The year has a long time to play itself out, and the best scenario for the I-Cubs would be to somehow make the playoffs, and have futures players playing together in that playoff run. Then when they join the parent club next year, they will be in some familiar territory and have some comfort zone, along side of veterans helping them to adjust to everyday life in the bigs.

 

[chibears55]

@BleacherNation: Kyle Schwarber with a bomb, and Javy Baez just slapped his third hit of the night. #Hulk #BaezAfterDark

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[chibears55]

@TheCCO: MT @jimcallisMLB 7th-rder James Norwood's bonus w/@Cubs is $175k (pick 199 value = $201,900). Saint Louis RHP, FB up to 98, sits at 91-95.

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[beckdawg]

@BruceMiles2112: Theo says he does not foresee Bryant coming up to #Cubs this season

Which means then he most likely wont be up til may 2015 to save a full year..
So then they probably go with Valbuena to start season at 3B. Can't see them getting another 3B to be looking over his shoulder..

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Gotta be honest.... I don't get this. At the bare minimum you would expect to see him after the AAA season ends. Additionally, if he continues hitting similarly to what he was in AA over say 100 AB how do you justify keeping him down? His defense? I mean there are those of us who said he didn't need AAA at all. So, if he dominates AAA after dominating AA and they still don't promote him? I mean I get super 2 and all that jazz but that isn't not a concern on that sort of timeline.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Unless he gets worse, like we've already seen him do for 2-3 years prior to this one.

He could. But given that he's 24, I'm going to go ahead and place my chips on him getting better.

@BruceMiles2112: Theo says he does not foresee Bryant coming up to #Cubs this season

Which means then he most likely wont be up til may 2015 to save a full year..
So then they probably go with Valbuena to start season at 3B. Can't see them getting another 3B to be looking over his shoulder..

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Didn't Theo just say last week that Bryant wouldn't be up to AAA soon? He just doesn't want to get people's hopes up... At least that's what it sounds like to me.

 

[CSF77]

At 24? No way.

Until we have a better option at SS, Castro stays. If we get a better option at SS, move him to 2B. If we have better options at both, try to move someone to the OF. Castro is a cost controlled player for the next 5 years. Plus, he's only going to get better. The kid is 24. He's not old by any means. I just don't see what we have to gain by trading him.

The Cubs biggest need is top end SP with long term control.

Say Shark refuses to extend. Hammel regresses. Wood is off and on. That leaves Arrieta and Jackson to lean on.

For one I do not believe Hendricks is any more than a #4 SP. Edwards I wouldn't place any bets on long term. Health is a issue. Johnson has not got on on track this year.

To say the least the scariest thing looking forward is SP. Not to mention how the Ricketts will not spend for talent it doesn't bode well.

So in view of that: Say the Yanks are willing to give up a solid SP package for Castro and Hammel. You do it every time.

To me a solid return is Michael Pineda and Manny Banuelos. Now that return has upside and it fills 2 SP roster spots when Baez and Bryant are on the team.

Yanks get a SP they need to compete and a SS next year to replace Jeter. He slots at 2B until the end of the season.

That makes sense to me. Cubs have Baez and Alcantara to cover the MI and have plenty of OF depth right now. Lake, Sweeney. Kalish, Vitters and Jackson in AAA. Soler in AA. Not to mention OF in F/A are easy to obtain. SS has more trade value. Not to mention one on pace for 3000 hits. That is something Yankee fans want post Jeter.

Bottom line is if he is good enough to want to keep he has high value.
If you want to toss him he has low value.

 

[Captain Obvious]

The Cubs biggest need is top end SP with long term control.

Say Shark refuses to extend. Hammel regresses. Wood is off and on. That leaves Arrieta and Jackson to lean on.

For one I do not believe Hendricks is any more than a #4 SP. Edwards I wouldn't place any bets on long term. Health is a issue. Johnson has not got on on track this year.

To say the least the scariest thing looking forward is SP. Not to mention how the Ricketts will not spend for talent it doesn't bode well.

So in view of that: Say the Yanks are willing to give up a solid SP package for Castro and Hammel. You do it every time.

To me a solid return is Michael Pineda and Manny Banuelos. Now that return has upside and it fills 2 SP roster spots when Baez and Bryant are on the team.

Yanks get a SP they need to compete and a SS next year to replace Jeter. He slots at 2B until the end of the season.

That makes sense to me. Cubs have Baez and Alcantara to cover the MI and have plenty of OF depth right now. Lake, Sweeney. Kalish, Vitters and Jackson in AAA. Soler in AA. Not to mention OF in F/A are easy to obtain. SS has more trade value. Not to mention one on pace for 3000 hits. That is something Yankee fans want post Jeter.

Bottom line is if he is good enough to want to keep he has high value.
If you want to toss him he has low value.

You're just fixing a hole by making another. Sure, Baez could be a great SS, or he could end up like Adam Greenberg. I'm not willing to bet that he's going to be a 3 WAR SS, which is what Castro is right now, until he proves it.

You're also wanting to trade Castro, a player who has not been injured ever in his career, for two pitchers who have each missed full seasons due to injury. You're trading a proven MLB player who is young, good, and cost controlled, for 2 maybes.

You can be as worried about SP as you want. But Bosio seems to know his shit, as evidenced by how well our SP has been the last 3 years.

The Ricketts won't spend for talent? Well that may be, but we have about 50 MM coming up this next year to play with, if not more. We can go out and sign Scherzer and Lester and still have money left over. I seriously doubt we do anything that like, but we have money opening up.

You know why Yankee fans want a potential 3,000 hit SS post-Jeter? Because look how good Jeter has been. You're going to get more years out of a SS than a pitcher. He's going to be out there every day for you, and he's not going to command as much as even a good #2 SP, like Shark.

 

[beckdawg]

To me a solid return is Michael Pineda and Manny Banuelos. Now that return has upside and it fills 2 SP roster spots when Baez and Bryant are on the team.

That's no where near what I'd consider a good return for even Hammel alone honestly. Banuelos isn't the same pitcher. Klaw tweeted the other day that his fastball was a "soft 92."

keithlaw @keithlaw · Jun 18
Banuelos out after three on pitch count. Didn't throw anything over 92. Not quite the same guy he was before all the injuries.

keithlaw @keithlaw · Jun 18
Manny Banuelos a soft 90-92 in the first for Trenton

Pinadea you could argue is mildly intriguing but he's 3 years removed from his last full season. And in the 20 or so innings he threw this year his k rate is down considerably. He's on the 60 day DL right now as well.

An interesting return for Castro is Noah Syndergaard. Maybe you could argue that's slightly too much but around about there is where you're starting if you're the cubs. Keep in mind the talk about Castro to the cardinals prior to the hot stove was about Shelby Miller. Obviously we don't know the extent of how much of that was true but that gives you a guide of what popular opinion is.

Simply put the yankees honestly don't have anything to warrant a trade for Castro. They might not even have enough for Hammel by himself. The cubs likely could get one of their better pitching prospects for the first two IFA signings slots and something like Valbuena. That's not because those things are worth so much but rather the fact that the yanks pitching in the minors is pretty shitty.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Castro is a core player with 3,000 potential. Trading him after seeing him rebound this season would be mystifying...even for a top player who is only in the lineup 1 day out of 5.

 

[SilenceS]

Unless he gets worse, like we've already seen him do for 2-3 years prior to this one.

LOL, one bad season and he has gotten worse for 2 to 3 years prior to this one. LOL

 

[JP Hochbaum]

There is no reason to trade anyone right now for pitching.

1) We don't know who is coming from Cuba, Japan, etc... in the next couple of years that we could get to fill the 1/2 hole for pitching. No trading needed for that and it would happen when we are contenders.

2) Hoystein is kicking ass with signing upside potential guys and flipping them for prospects. Eventually we will be signing these guys and keeping them when we start to compete.

3) Epstein has claimed that he would pay premium for a top pitcher even if the contract would hurt them in later years.

So it is silly to trade anyone right now before we are contending.

 

[CSF77]

That's no where near what I'd consider a good return for even Hammel alone honestly. Banuelos isn't the same pitcher. Klaw tweeted the other day that his fastball was a "soft 92."



Pinadea you could argue is mildly intriguing but he's 3 years removed from his last full season. And in the 20 or so innings he threw this year his k rate is down considerably. He's on the 60 day DL right now as well.

An interesting return for Castro is Noah Syndergaard. Maybe you could argue that's slightly too much but around about there is where you're starting if you're the cubs. Keep in mind the talk about Castro to the cardinals prior to the hot stove was about Shelby Miller. Obviously we don't know the extent of how much of that was true but that gives you a guide of what popular opinion is.

Simply put the yankees honestly don't have anything to warrant a trade for Castro. They might not even have enough for Hammel by himself. The cubs likely could get one of their better pitching prospects for the first two IFA signings slots and something like Valbuena. That's not because those things are worth so much but rather the fact that the yanks pitching in the minors is pretty shitty.

Is there a need from the other side? You have to look at what team could benefit this and going into the future. Yanks have Brian Roberts back filling 2B. Jeter retiring. They have a clear need.

Now for Shark ya I would go for top 100 SP. He is proven. I would say the Yanks would be a prime landing spot but they lack blue chips. They traded them all away already.

With Shark I would just look at the best return with out a care where he lands. He already said he will test F/A so...not like you have to worry about finding a fit.

 

[CSF77]

There is no reason to trade anyone right now for pitching.

1) We don't know who is coming from Cuba, Japan, etc... in the next couple of years that we could get to fill the 1/2 hole for pitching. No trading needed for that and it would happen when we are contenders.

2) Hoystein is kicking ass with signing upside potential guys and flipping them for prospects. Eventually we will be signing these guys and keeping them when we start to compete.

3) Epstein has claimed that he would pay premium for a top pitcher even if the contract would hurt them in later years.

So it is silly to trade anyone right now before we are contending.

You can't wait around for things like that. Sure there maybe a new hot arm up comming...so what. As we have seen the Cubs are not willing to pay top dollar. They underbid by 1/2 on Darvish. Theo should have know it would go into the 50 mil range to net him. Tanaka went for 150 mil. Again you have to put on the big boy pants when you go up against these teams.

Don't come across about the next. They have been a also ran every major name with no legit offer made.

I expect them to do more of the same. Flip for 2nd rate prospects vs top 100 prospects and sign rentals.

My prediction is they trade both Shark and Hammel and we have never heard about any of the returns before. Then they back fill with Hendricks and Joch. Next year they do another 1 year with Kendrick.