Cubs trade targets (The Athletic article)

[CSF77]

And Chatwood's 4 starts 1-0 4.26 ERA 1.37 WHIP. as a #5 that is median.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

And Chatwood's 4 starts 1-0 4.26 ERA 1.37 WHIP. as a #5 that is median.

And you think Chatwood's value could even get HIGHER? Wow. When teams are trying to acquire #5 starter types, they typically use assets to pick up pitchers with $38M contracts!

I can't believe you are still trying to be "right" about this.

 

[CSF77]

And you think Chatwood's value could even get HIGHER? Wow.

We really don't know that now do we?

He has been tossed out there this year on the fly and has not been conditioned for the role.

This is my opinion. He lost his release point and then his confidence then his job.

This year he has it back but has been bouncing back and forth.

Stable role who knows honestly. I really do not want to define him because he also was a successful pitcher before. 1 bad year doesn't define a player.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

We really don't know that now do we?

So its normal for teams to trade for nominal 5th starters who are coming off historically bad seasons while making $38M? Got it.

I can't believe you are still trying to be "right" about this.

 

[TL1961]

You forgot how he went to Nat in a trade and posted a .84 ERA.

Greg is not with out warts. But he is cheap and a better option than Strop. I think that we all can agree with that part.

As far as Wade Davis goes. 18M/17/M/15M

There would have to be a contract offset involved.

I have suggested Morrow. This year he is owed 9M next year a 12 opt that can be dropped. That would offset salaries a bit. Basically the Cubs would get what they were supposed to pay for 9Mil this year. Col would get out of that contract with a opt that they can drop while shedding 1/2 of what is left this year.

As far as next year is concerned they are dropping Strop, Hamels, Cishek and Kintzler. The money will be there to justify having that much resource invested into the 8-9th.

Davis is mid-30’s, is owed FIFTY million dollars, and his position has been filled.

You seem to link the Cubs to every player rather than look at what is reasonable to expect.

I won’t rule out Theo making a move that surprises but the payroll isn’t going to be expanded by $18 million. It wasn’t ever going to be, and with Kimbrel signed, it’s not going to happen for sure.

 

[TL1961]

We really don't know that now do we?

He has been tossed out there this year on the fly and has not been conditioned for the role.

This is my opinion. He lost his release point and then his confidence then his job.

This year he has it back but has been bouncing back and forth.

Stable role who knows honestly. I really do not want to define him because he also was a successful pitcher before. 1 bad year doesn't define a player.

“Has it back” meaning what, exactly?

 

[CSF77]

Cubs, Orioles Have Discussed Jonathan Villar

The Cubs talked to the Orioles about a potential deal for second baseman Jonathan Villar, but it appears unlikely. Read more at MLB Trade Rumors.

www.mlbtraderumors.com

 

[CSF77]

“Has it back” meaning what, exactly?

Confidence and release point. BB/9 are a indicator or a mechanic flaw with his delivery. Not that he lacks talent.

2018 he was near 9 walks per 9. That is a mechanic issue.

2019 4.86 BB/9. Which is more in line with his career 4.74.

If that is not getting it back I'm not sure what is.

Theo paid for a back of the rotation not a front of the rotation. Expecting more than that is your problem.

 

[CSF77]

So its normal for teams to trade for nominal 5th starters who are coming off historically bad seasons while making $38M? Got it.

I can't believe you are still trying to be "right" about this.

Again that is fair to say that. But teams trade for different reasons. A team in sell mode might be looking to off load talent and will need innings covered for Aug-Sept. That is a real need that non contenders deal with and the result is less important than the chore.

 

[CSF77]

Davis is mid-30’s, is owed FIFTY million dollars, and his position has been filled.

You seem to link the Cubs to every player rather than look at what is reasonable to expect.

I won’t rule out Theo making a move that surprises but the payroll isn’t going to be expanded by $18 million. It wasn’t ever going to be, and with Kimbrel signed, it’s not going to happen for sure.

I agree with you. That is why I started this with the word Ideal. Not most likely.

Whit and Davis are the ideal solutions in a vacuum

 

[CSF77]

But I'm seeing this as Theo is tossing his line in every fishing hole. He got a bite that he liked with Mald. Then he gave nothing for Holland. Now he is dangling Mald again. He missed on Sogard and now it sounds like he is not willing to pay the cost on Villar.

That is why I said that he should just go all in on Whit in the opener. Every option out there is not a clear upgrade to the status que. If you want a clear upgrade it will cost talent.

Status que is tossing a platoon of Garcia and Bote and waiting on Zobrist. Whit is a clear upgrade to that.

 

[CSF77]

I found this interesting in this article.

• The Mets’ surprise acquisition of Marcus Stroman has sparked even more rumors about a possible Noah Syndergaard trade, with the Padres one of the teams (if pessimistically so) still in talks about Syndergaard. While the Padreshave a deep farm system’s worth of prospects to offer, one name that isn’t available is top pitching prospect MacKenzie Gore, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets. Gore has been mentioned as a possible trade chip in quite a few speculative deals since the offseason, though the Padres reportedly consider the young left-hander to be next to untouchable. Ironically, the Mets themselves may have contributed to the Padres’ stance on not including Gore in a Syndergaard trade — since the Mets didn’t have to give up even a top-100 MLB.com-ranked prospect for Stroman, San Diego can argue that a consensus top-10 arm like Gore is too much to give up for Syndergaard.

So here is how this plays out in market shaping.

Stroman just got traded and didn't cost any top 100 prospects to get. The Mets bought 1+ years of control in that trade.

That impacts this market. Now a 2-3 quality pitcher is not worth a top 100 pick at all. He is valued at 2.9 WAR this year.

 

[TL1961]

Confidence and release point. BB/9 are a indicator or a mechanic flaw with his delivery. Not that he lacks talent.

2018 he was near 9 walks per 9. That is a mechanic issue.

2019 4.86 BB/9. Which is more in line with his career 4.74.

If that is not getting it back I'm not sure what is.

Theo paid for a back of the rotation not a front of the rotation. Expecting more than that is your problem.

Well, getting it back could also refer to ability to get people out, but with an ERA near 5.00, that remains to be seen.

 

[TL1961]

Status “quo”.

 

[TL1961]

And Chatwood's 4 starts 1-0 4.26 ERA 1.37 WHIP. as a #5 that is median.

Last start was 4 innings. And that was a “good” start.

We hear complaints about every reliever, but praise for a start that requires 5 innings of relief.

Doesn’t jibe.

 

[CSF77]

Last start was 4 innings. And that was a “good” start.

We hear complaints about every reliever, but praise for a start that requires 5 innings of relief.

Doesn’t jibe.

He was pulled. That was on Joe. His performance was fine. Joe has a short leash lately and you just complained about it with Kyle.

 

[DanTown]

I agree with you. That is why I started this with the word Ideal. Not most likely.

Whit and Davis are the ideal solutions in a vacuum

In no world is Wade Davis "ideal". This year
- Velocity on the FB is down (94.6 as a Cub to 93.8 to this year; down from peaks of 96.7)
- Ks are down (12.12/9 as a Cub, 10.74/9 last year 9.19 this year)
- BBs are way up (5.46/9 this year; 3.58 last year)
- FIP has gone up every year since 2014
2014 - 1.19
2015 - 2.29
2016 - 2.29
2017 - 3.38
2018 - 3.65
2019 - 4.35

Every single metric you want to judge a pitcher by says Wade Davis is in decline yet your idea is to go trade for him and give him the 8th inning.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

He was pulled. That was on Joe. His performance was fine. Joe has a short leash lately and you just complained about it with Kyle.

So you think MLB teams would be more willing to trade for Chatwood because Maddon isn't using Chatwood properly, and there is some potential that the Cubs simply aren't allowing Chatwood to reach?

I can't believe you are still trying to be "right" about this.

 

[CSF77]

In no world is Wade Davis "ideal". This year
- Velocity on the FB is down (94.6 as a Cub to 93.8 to this year; down from peaks of 96.7)
- Ks are down (12.12/9 as a Cub, 10.74/9 last year 9.19 this year)
- BBs are way up (5.46/9 this year; 3.58 last year)
- FIP has gone up every year since 2014
2014 - 1.19
2015 - 2.29
2016 - 2.29
2017 - 3.38
2018 - 3.65
2019 - 4.35

Every single metric you want to judge a pitcher by says Wade Davis is in decline yet your idea is to go trade for him and give him the 8th inning.

Road .68 ERA
Home 9.00 ERA

that is the main stat to look at.

But you are right on velocity. That happens with age.

Kimbrel used to throw 101. Now 97. Theo still paid for him. I wouldn't use that excuse. Pitchers also use location and movement and obviously looking at those splits coors's environment limits those factors.

 

[CSF77]

So you think MLB teams would be more willing to trade for Chatwood because Maddon isn't using Chatwood properly, and there is some potential that the Cubs simply aren't allowing Chatwood to reach?

I can't believe you are still trying to be "right" about this.

What I posted is based in fact.

2018 he had a 9.00 BB/9.
2019 it is back to his mean of just under 5.

He is a #5 quality starter and that goes for about 8-12 mil. That is his market value.

As a starter he is making market value.
As a long relief he is vastly over paid.

So what is your arguement then? No team would trade for a market value player?

Your opinion I believe is limited to Chatwood = sucks no matter what the facts say.

Which is caveman logic.