Emma: Ranking the Bear's Best Options at QB

[vabearsfan15]

To me its JG, Watson or bust.

 

[run and shoot]

Hard to dangle 3rd string QB'S when your 1 and 2 are nothing better than backup's themselves.

true..well the assumption is that we draft a better Qb than what have and maybe Shaw can compete & move up to backup.

 

[Tjodalv]

Hard to dangle 3rd string QB'S when your 1 and 2 are nothing better than backup's themselves.

Not entirely sure what imaginary "dangling" Run and Shit is talking about anyways. Cassel got traded with Vrabel for a 2nd rounder and...who else was "dangled?" Flynn signed in Seattle as a FA after those two or three ridiculous games, and there hasn't been another notable backup on either team other than those two anyone had a single bit of interest in until JG.

GB: Hundley, BJ Coleman, Brian Brohm (bwahahaha), Ingle Martin.
NE: Brissett, Mallett (got them a 7th rounder), Zac Robinson, Kevin O'Connell.

That's actually quite a bit of draft capital spent for fuck all of a return, especially when you consider some 2nd and 3rd rounders in that group. So, out of ten backup QBs over the last decade two have been "dangled," grossing NE a 2nd and a 7th round pick. Having spent a combined 2nd rounder, three 3rds, two 5ths, and four 7ths on those guys I'd say that's a net loss on those teams' investments. Of course, JG could throw that out of whack by a ton, but up until this point there really isn't any precedent of either of those teams cashing in on their backups other than Cassel; and they sure as shit haven't been getting fat off practice squad guys like Conner Shaw.

 

[satchice]

And I believe Watson could be a top 5 QB. He might not, but the only way you are ever going to get a top 5 QB is by drafting one. Might as well start now.

What makes you think that he could EVER be a top 5 QB? What is one thing that he does better then the top 5 QBs in the draft? With Kizer you can point out he is a physical freak, Mahomes has the consensus best arm, Trubisky has elite accuracy and ability to process the game. What does Watson do for you that makes you think he could be an elite QB?? Is it just that he played well against Alabama? Being a winner in NCAA does not translate to NFL success. Other QBs who recently played well against Alabama with lesser teams then Watson are not considered good QBs ie Bo Wallace, Trevor Knight, and Chad Kelly

 

[PolarBear]

What makes you think that he could EVER be a top 5 QB? What is one thing that he does better then the top 5 QBs in the draft? With Kizer you can point out he is a physical freak, Mahomes has the consensus best arm, Trubisky has elite accuracy and ability to process the game. What does Watson do for you that makes you think he could be an elite QB?? Is it just that he played well against Alabama? Being a winner in NCAA does not translate to NFL success. Other QBs who recently played well against Alabama with lesser teams then Watson are not considered good QBs ie Bo Wallace, Trevor Knight, and Chad Kelly

Haven't you heard? He just wins.

All he does is win.

 

[PolarBear]

Joking aside, Watson's best asset is his intangibles. He has the perfect mentality, leadership abilities and coolness under pressure you want from a QB.

Problem is, that all goes out the window if you aren't consistently accurate throwing the ball and making good decisions.

 

[satchice]

Joking aside, Watson's best asset is his intangibles. He has the perfect mentality, leadership abilities and coolness under pressure you want from a QB.

Problem is, that all goes out the window if you aren't consistently accurate throwing the ball and making good decisions.

I see what your trying to point to, but I just cant buy that is going to be what separates him from the others..

How can any scout, draftnik, or fan determine a players mentality, leadership abilities and coolness? Also, how much would you personally rank Watsons mentality, leadership abilities with Davis Webb or Tim Tebow?

Is there a huge gap in mentality, leadership abilities and coolness under pressure over the top five QBs, or is it marginal?

Do you think Watson's coolness under pressure is directly related to having the most NFL talent on a NCAA offensive?

 

[PolarBear]

There are some rumoured minor concerns about Kizer but nothing substantial in regards to character or locker room issues. I don't think there are any problems with Kizer.

Trubisky is a quiet dude. No character concerns at all and probably never will. Great work ethic and competitiveness. Not a vocal guy by any means though. Leader by example.

I think the way Watson has performed in the big games is a positive. He has played in 4 college playoff games and played great in 2 of them (the two NC games) and average in the other two (Semi-final). Some guys crumble under the pressure of those types of games and you don't have to worry about that.

Trubisky was shaky against Stanford early in his Bowl game, he settled and got his team back in the game with some really clutch throws. NC O-line got beat immediately on the last play to tie the game and Trubisky failed to make a play. Jury is out I think.

 

[dbldrew]

And most guys would be wrong. I already posted the article that analyzed this. I don't know what to tell you except the research proves this assumption is flawed.

That article is junk and actually shows the opposite of what you want it to. Look at the int% chart and you see that the scales are not the same in college vs pros so it gives the illusion that there isnt really an increase. But in reality the vast majority of that scatter plot shows an increase in INT% going into the pros..

not to mention the fact that this was trying to justify away Winstons INT and just like the plot shows that he continued to throw a lot of INT in the pros..

there will always be the odd exception to the rule like Ryan but the stats show that if you throw a lot of INT in college that you will probably throw a lot in the pros. Witch is a concern for Watson

 

[circusboy666]

If there is any chance of getting cousins you go for it....and for those who say he's not a top QB in 2-3 years I think he will be ranked much higher(top 5)...Brady, brees, roethlisberger, Eli, rivers, romo, palmer will all be retired most likely. Being a reliable and consistent QB means more to a franchise then to where they are "ranked". His character is high, work ethic good, and a leader...

 

[satchice]

the stats show that if you throw a lot of INT in college that you will probably throw a lot in the pros. Witch is a concern for Watson

Especially if you look at the interceptions. If the WR quit on the route, there was a obvious miscommunication, the Pass was deflected, the interception was a result of a hail mary gone bad with 3 seconds left in regulation, ect then I don't think that should count as much against the QB. However with Watson a lot of his INTs are due to bad decisions, or misreading the defense.

 

[PolarBear]

Especially if you look at the interceptions. If the WR quit on the route, there was a obvious miscommunication, the Pass was deflected, the interception was a result of a hail mary gone bad with 3 seconds left in regulation, ect then I don't think that should count as much against the QB. However with Watson a lot of his INTs are due to bad decisions, or misreading the defense.

All 17 INT's from last season for Watson.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGP_uJfqzL0

Guy in the comment section did a pretty good job summing it up -

1: Overthrown ball or miscommunication
2: Miscommunication again or stared down receiver
3: Stared down receiver
4: Miscommunication
5: Poor ball placement; behind receiver
6: Receiver drop
7: Overthrown
8: Didn't see defender?
9: Stared down receiver
10: Miscommunication or underthrown ball. Or baited by DB (2nd time in the game)
11: Stares down receiver, forced into double coverage
12: Overthrown
13: Stares down receiver
14: Receiver drop
15: Batted in the air by D-lineman; low pass trajectory
16: Williams slipped, but pass was a bit underthrown and DB could have gotten that anyway
17: Overthrown

 

[remydat]

Posts article defending Jameis Winston's interceptions in college...

Jameis Winston goes on to have 3rd worst interception % in NFL.

And yet there are other guys like Matt Ryan that threw 19 interceptions his final year and then have never thrown that amount in the NFL.

That's the entire point. Interceptions in college are not a good predictor of interceptions in the NFL. You have guys that threw a lot of interceptions in college that didn't throw a lot in the NFL. You have a lot of guys that didn't throw a lot of them in college but threw a lot in NFL.

What the above shows is that there is no pattern hence why it's not a good predictor in and of itself. Again, if you want to say there are certain things about Watson's interceptions that make it likely they would reoccur in the NFL that's fine. Just blindly assuming they will simply because he threw them is simply terrible logic.

 

[dbldrew]

And yet there are other guys like Matt Ryan that threw 19 interceptions his final year and then have never thrown that amount in the NFL.

That's the entire point. Interceptions in college are not a good predictor of interceptions in the NFL. You have guys that threw a lot of interceptions in college that didn't throw a lot in the NFL. You have a lot of guys that didn't throw a lot of them in college but threw a lot in NFL.

What the above shows is that there is no pattern hence why it's not a good predictor in and of itself. Again, if you want to say there are certain things about Watson's interceptions that make it likely they would reoccur in the NFL that's fine. Just blindly assuming they will simply because he threw them is simply terrible logic.

I said that you can get the odd guy like Ryan but the majority of players will increase there INT% going into the pros and the scatter plot shows it.

The article is junk because he is trying to mislead the plots to try to justify drafting Winston. He changed the scale in pros vs college to make it look better. And then completely went away from int % plot for the 3 year average because as he said it increased even more (would be harder to hide I guess lol)

here is the thing the data shows that the average of 2.3% INT in college goes up to 3.4% in the first year of the pros.. and gets even higher comparing it to a 3 year pro.

The article shows the exact opposite of what you are trying to say

 

[remydat]

That article is junk and actually shows the opposite of what you want it to. Look at the int% chart and you see that the scales are not the same in college vs pros so it gives the illusion that there isnt really an increase. But in reality the vast majority of that scatter plot shows an increase in INT% going into the pros..

not to mention the fact that this was trying to justify away Winstons INT and just like the plot shows that he continued to throw a lot of INT in the pros..

there will always be the odd exception to the rule like Ryan but the stats show that if you throw a lot of INT in college that you will probably throw a lot in the pros. Witch is a concern for Watson

No the article says quite clearly that for the 38 quarterbacks looked at, their collective interception rate was 2.3% in college and it rises to 3.4% in the NFL. What the article is saying is that you can't predict which QB will be responsible for that increase because there are guys with higher rates in the NFL than in college but also guys like Ryan with lower rates than in college. Collectively, the rate increases but it's not as simple as the guys who threw a lot of picks are the ones driving that increase.

And the reason why the scales are different is because you had some guys that were absolutely terrible so you had to increase the scale of the NFL vertical line to represent it. For example the guy at the very top in the first graph had an Int Rate of under 1.5 in college but then jumped to over 6% in the NFL. So what the graph is really showing is that there are guys who end up being absolutely terrible in the NFL and they in tern bring the average up overall.

Also Winston Int rate has actually declined in the NFL. He was at 3.9% his last college season. He was at 2.8% in first year and 3.2% his second year. He's also thrown for over 4,000 yards both years, has 50 TDs passing, 7 rushing. and this past year he led a young Bucs team to a 9-7 record.

It's almost as if Interceptions don't tell the whole story of a QB.

 

[PolarBear]

Here is what I know.

Deshaun Watson had 4 NFL prospects (off the top of my head) at skill positions around him, 1 of them was the best WR in the country. He had a very good defense behind him that put him in good spots and allowed him for the most part to play with leads most of the time. He played in a relatively simple offense with a lot of 1 read, throw it type looks.

And yet he still averaged more than 1 INT per game. That's concerning to me. He had the highest interception percentage among the top prospects in this draft and he had the best supporting cast of the lot.

 

[bearmick]

Here is what I know.

Deshaun Watson had 4 NFL prospects (off the top of my head) at skill positions around him, 1 of them was the best WR in the country.

I had no idea Watson played at Western Michigan.

 

[PolarBear]

I had no idea Watson played at Western Michigan.

Arguably #1. Not really the point.

 

[remydat]

Here is what I know.

Deshaun Watson had 4 NFL prospects (off the top of my head) at skill positions around him, 1 of them was the best WR in the country. He had a very good defense behind him that put him in good spots and allowed him for the most part to play with leads most of the time. He played in a relatively simple offense with a lot of 1 read, throw it type looks.

And yet he still averaged more than 1 INT per game. That's concerning to me. He had the highest interception percentage among the top prospects in this draft and he had the best supporting cast of the lot.

Watson didn't have Williams in 2015 and had a better year overall with less interceptions. Not sure how many times this has to be pointed out.

No one said you can't be concerned. I said stupidly just assuming he will throw more interceptions in the NFL is not supported by the analysis. I posted a link of every single one of his interceptions in another thread. If you want to go look at them and then decide what about them concerns you then that would be more fruitful.

Based on what I saw, I didn't see a guy throwing into coverage a lot or making a ton of bad decisions. I saw a guy where the majority of his interceptions were simply bad throws or ball placement when throwing to a WR that was one on one. So the interceptions are simply a function of the underlying issue he as with accuracy and ball placement rather than poor decision making.

Now you can go review and let us know if you agree or disagree but this is why interceptions are not a good predictor of success in the NFL. They are merely a symptom of a disease and not the disease itself. So the point here is rather than talk about symptoms without any understanding of the underlying causes, why not get to the heart of the disease and then conclude on whether it's treatable or not. If you think Watson can clean up his accuracy and placement issues then it's less likely for the disease to carry over to the NFL. If you think he can't then it's more likely.

This whole time I have yet to see any discussion by you regarding what causes his interceptions so you seem to have no understanding over what those causes are and whether they are correctable.

 

[satchice]

All 17 INT's from last season for Watson.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGP_uJfqzL0

Guy in the comment section did a pretty good job summing it up -

1: Overthrown ball or miscommunication
2: Miscommunication again or stared down receiver
3: Stared down receiver
4: Miscommunication
5: Poor ball placement; behind receiver
6: Receiver drop
7: Overthrown
8: Didn't see defender?
9: Stared down receiver
10: Miscommunication or underthrown ball. Or baited by DB (2nd time in the game)
11: Stares down receiver, forced into double coverage
12: Overthrown
13: Stares down receiver
14: Receiver drop
15: Batted in the air by D-lineman; low pass trajectory
16: Williams slipped, but pass was a bit underthrown and DB could have gotten that anyway
17: Overthrown

exactly my point, how is this guy ever going to be an upgrade over Cutler? I would say 4 of those INTs were not entirely his fault, but when he makes it to the NFL he will not be on a team that has so much more talent then the opposition.