Expectations for Justin Fields vs other good rookies.

[mbison]

If Justin Fields starts week one in Matt Nagy's well oiled machine, what kinda passing numbers do you expect?

Seeing how we used a 1st round pick on Fields and traded the 2022 1st round pick, the expectations are immediately high. You don't make that trade for a guy that ends up like Sam Darnold. That trade was made because the Bears feel he's got top QB potential - not just a franchise guy - but something special like the men below.

I went to the trouble of adjusting some of the NFL's top young QBs as if they played 16 games...and here are the numbers. I used Lamar Jackson's second year because everyone knew he was a super rough prospect his rookie year. I understand if ppl think that he shouldn't be on the list - that's fine.

Looking at these guys: Isn't 3,800 yards and 30 TDs reasonable for Justin Fields in Nagy's 4th year of coaching? Considering the extra 1st round pick we gave up?

Patrick Mahomes - 5,097 yards, 50 TDs, 12 INTS (16 starts)
Justin Herbert - 4,336 yards, 31 TDs, 10 INTs (16 starts)
Baker Mayfield - 4,257 yards, 30 TDs, 16 INTs (Adjusted for 16 games)
Deshaun Watson - 3,883 yards, 43 TDs, 18 INTs (Adjusted for 16 games)
Kyler Murray - 3,722 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs (16 starts)
Joe Burrow - 4,300 yards, 21 TDs, 8 INTs (Adjusted for 16 games)
Lamar Jackson - 3,335 yards, 38 TDs, 6 INTs (2nd year, adjusted for 16 games.)

*maybe I'll add in everyone's rushing stats if this thread has interest.

you can’t adjust stats because a lot of these players improve during the off season

 

[JoJoBoxer]

I'm of the same mind. Draft picks are scratch off tickets, and it doesn't work like the opportunity cost of a business transaction. That kind of stuff applies to salary, not fucking draft picks.

On the topic, though, I don't care what his stats are. Really. It's wins, and how much a part he is of those wins. If he doesn't throw a single touchdown, but marches you all the way down the field and he wins, then fucking great. If he throws a bunch of short passes, who cares if you win? People get obsessed with stat lines because they think that that somehow equates success. The win column is what makes a winning team. Otherwise Stat Padford would be considered great for putting up so many yards while losing games

I understand where you are coming from, but I kind of have a different view.

Sometimes, a QB cannot will their team to win even though he is amazing during the game. An example was when Brady lost to Denver during one of Denver's Super Bowl season. The Denver defense beat the crap out of him all game long, yet Brady kept leading them to scores and even had a final chance of winning the game. A QB cannot get his team's defense to keep its end up. He can only do his part.

To me, if Fields does his part and leads a potent offense, he did enough where the Bears should win. If the defense had a bad day or fell off a cliff, it should not be held against Fields for losing.

As for Stafford, if he basically sucks all game long and then pads his stats once the game is out of reach, he never gave the defense a chance to win. That is on him.

This year the Bears have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, so a combination of .500 ball and good play by Fields is a successful season. If he can lead them to the post-season, that is a huge success.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

55,000 yds 443 TDs -25 Int

MVP

During his MVP speech, he will say that he had a bad season because of the 25 interceptions.

 

[Black Rainbow]

you can’t adjust stats because a lot of these players improve during the off season

Outside of Lamar the stats are based on their first year of starting. Obviously, Mahomes didn't truly start until year two.

There's nothing wrong with showing the statistical pace Burrow & Watson were on before they were injured to get a ballpark idea of where they could have finished.

 

[Bearly]

I think adjusting for16 games is a fail. D's get better at defending what you like and finding your weaker points that help create that rookie wall they sometimes hit. Also Mahomes was no rookie.

That said, I'd expect 4k yards and 90+ rating. I think we are actually going to mix more run in this year but that needs to be seen. I also don't think Justin starts the year but will play more than 1/2 of it.

I also think differentiating between star and franchise player in this trade context is pushing it. They make this trade because they hope they'll get a 10 year unquestioned starter. By definition, that's a franchise QB. Any more is gravy.

 

[nc0gnet0]

Eh I just wanted to make a jab at you and Detroit generally.

But for real, Fields is capable of getting plenty of stats. I just don't care what the final numbers are just like I dont care about highlight reels. They don't tell you whether or not you have a winning team, they are just snippets of a larger story

Nothing I said was against Fields.

 

[nc0gnet0]

I agree.

But that blind squirrel getting that nut gave him the energy to last one more day.

The same goes for Nagy/Pace. However; it was the insanity that happened leading up to the draft and during the draft (nuts, all of it) that gave the blind Pace and Nagy another chance to show something. Pace at least has some later round success. Nagy needs to show something this year. Zero excuses for him.

I hear this many times, but is there any statistics that show Pace is any more successful in the later rounds than the Average GM? I will grant you that yes he has found some nice players in the later rounds, but hasn't everybody?

 

[nc0gnet0]

I understand where you are coming from, but I kind of have a different view.

Sometimes, a QB cannot will their team to win even though he is amazing during the game. An example was when Brady lost to Denver during one of Denver's Super Bowl season. The Denver defense beat the crap out of him all game long, yet Brady kept leading them to scores and even had a final chance of winning the game. A QB cannot get his team's defense to keep its end up. He can only do his part.

To me, if Fields does his part and leads a potent offense, he did enough where the Bears should win. If the defense had a bad day or fell off a cliff, it should not be held against Fields for losing.

As for Stafford, if he basically sucks all game long and then pads his stats once the game is out of reach, he never gave the defense a chance to win. That is on him.

This year the Bears have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, so a combination of .500 ball and good play by Fields is a successful season. If he can lead them to the post-season, that is a huge success.

But then how do you explain having so many come from behind victories. Stafford being behind is the result of his shit defenses. Not stat padding.

Matthew Stafford: Dispelling the “Stat Padford” Moniker of the Detroit Lions QB

After another tough loss dropped the Detroit Lions to a disappointing 0–2 start to the 2018 season, quarterback Matthew Stafford has come…

medium.com

Did Matthew Stafford "Pad" His Stats in 2019?

Logan Lamorandier explores whether Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford "padded" his stats in 2019

www.si.com

"Yet, there is still a narrative surrounding Stafford that he can't seem to shake.


He only gets all of his gaudy numbers because of what many call “garbage time” -- a point in a game where the opposing defense just plays prevent and allows quarterbacks to rack up meaningless yards.

Oddly enough, the Lions held a lead in the fourth quarter at some point in every game with Stafford under center. Hard to point to the fourth quarter of any game last season and call it “garbage time” stats.

No matter the case, Stafford’s percentage of total yards coming from the fourth quarter were actually below the 2019 league average (26.1 percent).

Only 24.2 percent of Stafford’s yards came in the fourth quarter, to go along with a 111.6 passer rating.

Basically, Stafford just threw for more yards than most in every quarter -- not just the fourth."

So, the highlighted statement is pretty much one of ignorance.

 

[Black Rainbow]

I hear this many times, but is there any statistics that show Pace is any more successful in the later rounds than the Average GM? I will grant you that yes he has found some nice players in the later rounds, but hasn't everybody?

Pace's luck is about to run out.

He may have found a QB but the roster is depleted of real talent and depth.

This team cannot afford many injuries. I know ppl will say that is true of most NFL teams, but with us it's waaay worse.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

But then how do you explain having so many come from behind victories. Stafford being behind is the result of his shit defenses. Not stat padding.

Matthew Stafford: Dispelling the “Stat Padford” Moniker of the Detroit Lions QB

After another tough loss dropped the Detroit Lions to a disappointing 0–2 start to the 2018 season, quarterback Matthew Stafford has come…

medium.com

Did Matthew Stafford "Pad" His Stats in 2019?

Logan Lamorandier explores whether Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford "padded" his stats in 2019

www.si.com

"Yet, there is still a narrative surrounding Stafford that he can't seem to shake.

so, the highlighted is pretty much a statement of ignorance.

He only gets all of his gaudy numbers because of what many call “garbage time” -- a point in a game where the opposing defense just plays prevent and allows quarterbacks to rack up meaningless yards.

Oddly enough, the Lions held a lead in the fourth quarter at some point in every game with Stafford under center. Hard to point to the fourth quarter of any game last season and call it “garbage time” stats.

No matter the case, Stafford’s percentage of total yards coming from the fourth quarter were actually below the 2019 league average (26.1 percent).

Only 24.2 percent of Stafford’s yards came in the fourth quarter, to go along with a 111.6 passer rating.

Basically, Stafford just threw for more yards than most in every quarter -- not just the fourth."

Sorry, I was just using it as a generic situation of a QB having good stats, but getting them late when the game was out of reach. Lazy of me.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

I hear this many times, but is there any statistics that show Pace is any more successful in the later rounds than the Average GM? I will grant you that yes he has found some nice players in the later rounds, but hasn't everybody?

He has shown that he is an ok GM, not great.

Nagy, as the offensive genius, got most of his wins because of the defense. So what has he done for the offense?

Like I said, this year, Nagy has no excuses. He has to make the offense at least a middle of the pack offense. If he can't, then it is time to find someone who can. The Bears can't waste Fields' rookie contract on below average offensive coaching.

 

[playthrough2001]

Pace's luck is about to run out.

He may have found a QB but the roster is depleted of real talent and depth.

This team cannot afford many injuries. I know ppl will say that is true of most NFL teams, but with us it's waaay worse.

You should provide some specific examples and then show the board how their roster is “way worse” than the rest of the NFL.

Maybe start with how their roster and depth is “way worse” than the Texans or Lions.

I realize you like to bitch and really don’t know too much about football but it’s awesome you share your sunny observations at a relentless clip.

 

[Black Rainbow]

You should provide some specific examples and then show the board how their roster is “way worse” than the rest of the NFL.

Maybe start with how their roster and depth is “way worse” than the Texans or Lions.

I realize you like to bitch and really don’t know too much about football but it’s awesome you share your sunny observations at a relentless clip.

I don't have to.

Ppl will see during the season, and have the EXACT same complaints I'm having now...and try to pretend they were there all along.

Happens every year.

When I reiterate it later, they'll say "Well everyone knew that. That wasn't hard to see."

Edit: Also they'll say "no one could have known this guy or that guy would get injured...the season would have been so different otherwise."

 

[Midway Fields]

I'm certainly hoping Fields is better than Wentz and Goff.

I would think most of CCS agrees.

I agree, no one is higher on Fields than me. Just pointing out rookie season production is not the end all be all like you are arguing.

 

[Canth]

This year especially due to the lower cap means that quality depth will be lacking for most teams. Key injuries always have an impact on a team's ability to win and make the playoffs. Just a fact of life in the NFL and football in general.

I will say though that I feel even after they cut Leno that the offensive line depth appears better this year than years past. I think I said this elsewhere but the Bears were very fortunate that Leno didn't miss snaps in the sense that they had no real OT depth previously.

And the offensive line will have a huge effect on how this offense performs. I know that gets said a lot but for some reason, teams often still neglect their lines despite all the evidence that having a solid line makes such a huge impact on overall production. I am very interested to see how the Bears line grows under the tutelage of Castillo. Regardless of if it is Dalton or Fields, both guys will really appreciate having time to throw and an effective running game.

 

[FozzyBear]

You ppl arent Factoring in Daltons 16-0 Run and MVP season of 5500 yards 52 TDs 2 INts.

Fields Rookie Season.

1 Game (Week 18)

12-19 152 Yards 0 TDs 0 INTs - 3 Fumbles, 1 Lost.
8 Rushes for 55 yards, 1 TDs

 

[playthrough2001]

I don't have to.

Ppl will see during the season, and have the EXACT same complaints I'm having now...and try to pretend they were there all along.

Happens every year.

When I reiterate it later, they'll say "Well everyone knew that. That wasn't hard to see."

Edit: Also they'll say "no one could have known this guy or that guy would get injured...the season would have been so different otherwise."

Tell me how the Chiefs did in the Super Bowl after Eric Fisher went down? You would expect the defending Super Bowl champs would have some depth.

 

[Black Rainbow]

Tell me how the Chiefs did in the Super Bowl after Eric Fisher went down? You would expect the defending Super Bowl champs would have some depth.

Not sure what the Chiefs have to do with the Bears glaringly shallow depth.

 

[playthrough2001]

Not sure what the Chiefs have to do with the Bears glaringly shallow depth.

Which backup do you fear having to be next man up?

 

[Black Rainbow]

Which backup do you fear having to be next man up?

Anyone at ILB or CB