Expectations for Justin Fields vs other good rookies.

[SlickWilly]

Thank GOD @halftime doesn’t run the Bears

I think I just liked my own post....

 

[Bears4Ever_34]

I would be shocked if Fields got anywhere close to 30 touchdowns in his first season. He'd have an outside chance if he started all 16 games, but I don't think he will, and I don't think the Bears have good enough weapons or a good enough playcaller to make Justin Fields look like Justin Herbert did in his rookie season.

I think he'll start more than 10 games, providing no injuries, and will put up closer to Mitch Trubisky year 2 numbers. Somewhere closer to 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions + a few running touchdowns.

 

[CHIBEAR]

If Justin Fields starts week one in Matt Nagy's well oiled machine, what kinda passing numbers do you expect?

Seeing how we used a 1st round pick on Fields and traded the 2022 1st round pick, the expectations are immediately high. You don't make that trade for a guy that ends up like Sam Darnold. That trade was made because the Bears feel he's got top QB potential - not just a franchise guy - but something special like the men below.

I went to the trouble of adjusting some of the NFL's top young QBs as if they played 16 games...and here are the numbers. I used Lamar Jackson's second year because everyone knew he was a super rough prospect his rookie year. I understand if ppl think that he shouldn't be on the list - that's fine.

Looking at these guys: Isn't 3,800 yards and 30 TDs reasonable for Justin Fields in Nagy's 4th year of coaching? Considering the extra 1st round pick we gave up?

Patrick Mahomes - 5,097 yards, 50 TDs, 12 INTS (16 starts)
Justin Herbert - 4,336 yards, 31 TDs, 10 INTs (16 starts)
Baker Mayfield - 4,257 yards, 30 TDs, 16 INTs (Adjusted for 16 games)
Deshaun Watson - 3,883 yards, 43 TDs, 18 INTs (Adjusted for 16 games)
Kyler Murray - 3,722 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs (16 starts)
Joe Burrow - 4,300 yards, 21 TDs, 8 INTs (Adjusted for 16 games)
Lamar Jackson - 3,335 yards, 38 TDs, 6 INTs (2nd year, adjusted for 16 games.)

*maybe I'll add in everyone's rushing stats if this thread has interest.

No there is zero context to any of these comparisons of the Bears because you cant really compare individual success to the vastly different team situations that the individuals are playing in .

Mahomes took over the #6 scoring offense(5th in yards) in the league in his 2nd year . Do you see the Bears as being the same ?

Jackson numbers are from his 2nd year

I don't see how either are a comparison for genuine rookie starter


The rest of these players basically played without much of a run game and from behind most of the season and so barring some major injuries to the Bears rbs and a total collapse by the defense I just dont see a scenario where he would get the opportunity to put up those types of numbers


I see 3400 yards and 25 tds as a natural expectation of him if he starts all 16 games because I fully expect us to resemble the Browns more than the Chiefs this year .

 

[Black Rainbow]

No there is zero context to any of these comparisons of the Bears because you cant really compare individual success to the vastly different team situations that the individuals are playing in .

Mahomes took over the #6 scoring offense(5th in yards) in the league in his 2nd year . Do you see the Bears as being the same ?

Jackson numbers are from his 2nd year

I don't see how either are a comparison for genuine rookie starter


The rest of these players basically played without much of a run game and from behind most of the season and so barring some major injuries to the Bears rbs and a total collapse by the defense I just dont see a scenario where he would get the opportunity to put up those types of numbers


I see 3400 yards and 25 tds as a natural expectation of him if he starts all 16 games because I fully expect us to resemble the Browns more than the Chiefs this year .

There's all kinds of context. Especially Murray going to a much worse team and doing well.

Several examples of good, young QBs making an immediate impact. Seems like in today's game you get results year one.

 

[Anytime23]

Thank GOD @halftime doesn’t run the Bears

Thank God none of us do, especially the ones like you who after 3 years didn't think the biggest problem on our team wasn't a problem at all.

 

[Anytime23]

It makes me nervous to see mainstream sports media, ESPN, etc., hyping Fields up. I'd rather he fly under their radar for a season or two and take everyone by surprise.

They build them up to tear them down. I hope Fields takes at least one thing from Mitch: his disregard for the media.

None of that matters. Mitch kept getting shit on(rightfully so) and it made no difference in him being a bust. Bears fans need to get over this media obsession where they think criticism or hype plays any role in how they develop or progress as players.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

I would be shocked if Fields got anywhere close to 30 touchdowns in his first season. He'd have an outside chance if he started all 16 games, but I don't think he will, and I don't think the Bears have good enough weapons or a good enough playcaller to make Justin Fields look like Justin Herbert did in his rookie season.

I think he'll start more than 10 games, providing no injuries, and will put up closer to Mitch Trubisky year 2 numbers. Somewhere closer to 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions + a few running touchdowns.

Why was the chargers offense so much better? Robinson is fairly equal to Keenan Allen. Mike Williams isn't something out of Mooneys reach as a playmaker. Ekeler was out a lot of the year. Hunter Henry didn't really do shit and the oline was terrible. Idk who the OC was but Lynn is a terrible HC

 

[Canth]

Random thought: Nagy did Mitch no favors by not giving him any real snaps in the preseason - when they had a preseason. I still don't fully understand that one. I think he overreacted to the Shaheen injury that occured in the preseason in 2018 and got so worried about starters getting hurt that he chose not to play them at all in 2019. And that clearly was a disaster - especially in the opener against GB.

Hopefully, he has learned from that and will give the guys a chance to work out some kinks and get into game shape this year. It sounds like the rumor is that Fields will be given a lot of snaps in the preseason. Overall, that will be a thing to keep an eye on - how many snaps both Dalton and Fields get to prepare for the season. Especially if Fields does not start the season, that will be the only time we will see him play for a bit.

 

[CHIBEAR]

There's all kinds of context. Especially Murray going to a much worse team and doing well.

Several examples of good, young QBs making an immediate impact. Seems like in today's game you get results year one.

Impact ? are you talking stats or are you talking winning ? because the Cards went 5-10 in Murrays rookie year and the coach basically imported his college playbook in a throw away season for them .

Justin can have 3k yards and 20 tds and still impact this team moreso than Herbert impacted the Chargers last year with with his 4k and 30 tds

Fields wont be judged simply by his numbers imo but in how his play changes the traditional dynamic of how the Bears offense has been viewed for years .

 

[DC]

Call me crazy, but I want a 2:1 TD/INT ratio in year one. If he starts 16 games, 3800 yards passing.

 

[nc0gnet0]

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Check out Sam Darnold's College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits and More College Stats at Sports-Reference.com

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Justin Fields College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Check out Justin Fields's College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits and More College Stats at Sports-Reference.com

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Fields - he is at least Darnold's equal as a passer, he is much better as a runner and had better actual production.

meh, that is not an apples to apples comparison as Fields played on a much better team with better skill position players. The fact remains, coming out, Darnold was thought of as a slightly better prospect then Fields, and as such, was rated higher.

 

[nc0gnet0]

There are countless ways a GM could have screwed the draft up. Especially with everyone knowing they were desperate for a QB. He could have easily sold the farm to try to move up to spots 4-10. He could have been gun shy about trading up again and not done so or assumed either Jones or Mac would fall to him. They could have fucked up the valuations and took one of the later QBs at 20.

He played it perfectly. He deserves his props.

And it's not just about Justin. He traded up in the second to get the tackle that everyone wanted in the first round. The entire draft looks outstanding without having seen any of the players in the NFL yet.

You can't say he played it perfectly until after you see how the players he selected perform. Moving up to draft a RT that you need to play LT isn't a stroke of brilliance unless it works. For all we know, it might be Bill Belicheck that played it perfectly and got mac Jones for much cheaper.

 

[Enasic]

I think his rookie stats will look closer to Kyler than Mahomes…and that’s not a bad thing. He has to battle through Nagy and mahomes/Herbert/Watson aren’t typical rookie years. My somewhat subjective guess but still well within reason, is fields has a better rookie year than kyler but not as good as Herbert and certainly not as good as mahomes. I think he’ll look the part though and be that dude for the bears for a long time

 

[CaliBearFan]

You can't say he played it perfectly until after you see how the players he selected perform. Moving up to draft a RT that you need to play LT isn't a stroke of brilliance unless it works. For all we know, it might be Bill Belicheck that played it perfectly and got mac Jones for much cheaper.

Your words were that Pace got dam lucky that Fields fell to him and that any GM would have taken him there (even though he traded up for him so that doesn't make sense) I'm saying it looks like he executed the draft perfectly to get Fields given the situation. It wasn't dumb luck and he deserves credit where due.

Regardless of where Jenkins ends up playing he was the player most mocked to the Bears at 20 and a player most Bears fans wanted there so getting him in the second round is going to be a home run in most fans minds

 

[FozzyBear]

Regardless of where Jenkins ends up playing he was the player most mocked to the Bears at 20 and a player most Bears fans wanted there so getting him in the second round is going to be a home run in most fans minds

I had Mac Jones mocked to the Bears at 20. Had Justin to NE at 15. I didnt do trades. I wasnt happy about Jones, but the Bears needed a QB

I did call the 5 Qbs in order though.

1 Lawrence
2 Wilson
3 Lance
4 Fields
5 Jones

My mock correctness compared well with an expert like Mcshay. Thing is, Im no expert

 

[SlickWilly]

I would be shocked if Fields got anywhere close to 30 touchdowns in his first season. He'd have an outside chance if he started all 16 games, but I don't think he will, and I don't think the Bears have good enough weapons or a good enough playcaller to make Justin Fields look like Justin Herbert did in his rookie season.

I think he'll start more than 10 games, providing no injuries, and will put up closer to Mitch Trubisky year 2 numbers. Somewhere closer to 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions + a few running touchdowns.

Please tell me what players on offense the Chargers have that are far superior to the Bears. And Shane Steichen was some great playcaller in his first year as O coordinator????

 

[Hawkeye OG]

Really hard to say with Nagy's offense. The easy answer is 4,000 yards, minimum 2TD/1INT ratio and most importantly, wins. I doubt we see all of that though. The Bears have never had a 4,000 yard passer, to put that as the goal for Fields in his rookie year in unrealistic.

What I want to see is that 'IT' factor and growth from his first start until his last. I want to see him come in and take advantage of the opportunity. Command the offense and step up in big situations. It should be evident that he can read defenses and make it through all his reads and/or throw to the correct read a majority of the time. Idk where his numbers end up, especially because we don't know when he will actually start. There will be much more pressure on him in year 2.

 

[Bearly]

Whenever Fields starts, I expect at least the 235 ypg average required to have 4K yards in the current 17 game season. I think the key is to wait until you're pretty sure he can do that without too many negatives in terms of reads/indecision killing drives, INTs and taking hits. You'd like to have him prepared for a quickly ascending curve once he steps on the field which I expect to be before or at the midpoint of the season.

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

Can someone answer why every time a post is made comparing rookie quarterback years to JF1, EVERY ONE excludes Prescott's ?

In either case, JF1 will fall somewhere between Dak and Kyler Murray, that would be an awesome year 1.

 

[satchice]

I don't have to.

Ppl will see during the season, and have the EXACT same complaints I'm having now...and try to pretend they were there all along.

Happens every year.

When I reiterate it later, they'll say "Well everyone knew that. That wasn't hard to see."

Edit: Also they'll say "no one could have known this guy or that guy would get injured...the season would have been so different otherwise."

This is true with most teams