Expectations for Justin Fields vs other good rookies.

[WindyCity]

Ok, so in some alternate universe, where both Fields and Darnold are in the same draft class, and both are available when Pace makes his selection, who do you think he picks? And this is without any knowledge of how he did with NY.

Fields was a better prospect.

Pace… probably Darnold because he can’t scout QBs at all.

Nagy… likely picks Fields again.

 

[Bearly]

I never understood why Darnold was so highly rated.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

You can't say he played it perfectly until after you see how the players he selected perform. Moving up to draft a RT that you need to play LT isn't a stroke of brilliance unless it works. For all we know, it might be Bill Belicheck that played it perfectly and got mac Jones for much cheaper.

The choice was not either the Bear move up and pick a QB (Fields) or take whoever the Pats did not. The choice was move up for Fields or get no first round QB. The Vikings were going to draft Fields if he were there and the Pats would then get Jones.

Do you remember how the fans were in a state of depression before the draft and how they were no longer in depression after? I am sure that the Bears players were in the same situation.

Now, we may find out that the best QB was not Fields, nor any one of the 1st round QBs, but drafting with no hindsight, the Bears did very well.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

Can someone answer why every time a post is made comparing rookie quarterback years to JF1, EVERY ONE excludes Prescott's ?

In either case, JF1 will fall somewhere between Dak and Kyler Murray, that would be an awesome year 1.
View attachment 12434

I am guessing that it has to do with looking at 1st round drafted rookie QBs, but that is just a guess.

Good info with Dak. Thanks.

 

[Hawkeye OG]

Can someone answer why every time a post is made comparing rookie quarterback years to JF1, EVERY ONE excludes Prescott's ?

In either case, JF1 will fall somewhere between Dak and Kyler Murray, that would be an awesome year 1.
View attachment 12434

From a statistical standpoint and that alone - these would be solid numbers that everyone would be happy with.

 

[Wild_x_Card]

meh, that is not an apples to apples comparison as Fields played on a much better team with better skill position players. The fact remains, coming out, Darnold was thought of as a slightly better prospect then Fields, and as such, was rated higher.

Rated by whom exactly? That's not the way it works. Teams have their own rankings and there's definitely not always a consensus league wide on who's the better prospect for an individuals respective team/scheme/philosophy.

That's not a fact at all. It's totally subjective.

 

[run and shoot]

The question is still.....what kind of offense is Nagy going to run to take advantage of Fields' skill set.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

The question is still.....what kind of offense is Nagy going to run to take advantage of Fields' skill set.

Maybe run and shoot, but with Nagy it'll look more like runny shits

 

[Pegger]

I expect him not to start, so I'm not going to let you know what I expect if the thing I don't expect to happen ends up happening...

If he starts the team will do worse passing wise. All receivers will generate less stats and RBs will face more run heavy fronts. This isn't specific to Fields, but just what happens with rookie QBs. Even great QBs like Russell Wilson had a 'game manager' type rookie season. It's just what happens when someone is making the transition.

For you Bears fans what I'm most fearful of is that he starts too early and becomes more of a runner than a passer. I'm facing the same issue with Jalen Hurts. Last year the OL was a jail break, so he looked better because he could use his athleticism to make plays. I'm worried that his success as a runner will hurt his development as a passer. I know there's always someone using Lamar Jackson as the example of how it can work, but I'd remind them outside of his truly amazing 2019 MVP season in terms of overall offensive efficiency it hasn't been all that great. This past season in15 games he passed for only 2757 yards (~184 yards/gm). This falls short of 3127 in 2019, but still seems fairly normal. It's great that he rushed for over 1000 yards for the 2nd straight season, but you have to wonder if that's sustainable? We've seen similar running ability from Mike Vick, Vince Young and Cam Newton only to realize that wasn't something a 10+ year career is built off of.

I want to be very clear, the fact that he's an exceptional athlete is a good thing. The issue I have is that he's making a large transition and I think a year of learning would do him good and I also think giving him too much too early will create certain habits that could slow his development as a passer.

 

[modo]

1.3 passing TDs a game
.7 INTs per game
225 passing yards per game

 

[Bearly]

Darnold had a very high point grade coming out. It's also true that it's subjective and and Teams could be all over the map on any QB but like I said, I personally didn't see it. I could still be proven wrong but I just don't see Fields with the same potential to a fail.

 

[MikeDitkaPolishSausage]

I expect him not to start, so I'm not going to let you know what I expect if the thing I don't expect to happen ends up happening...

If he starts the team will do worse passing wise. All receivers will generate less stats and RBs will face more run heavy fronts. This isn't specific to Fields, but just what happens with rookie QBs. Even great QBs like Russell Wilson had a 'game manager' type rookie season. It's just what happens when someone is making the transition.

For you Bears fans what I'm most fearful of is that he starts too early and becomes more of a runner than a passer. I'm facing the same issue with Jalen Hurts. Last year the OL was a jail break, so he looked better because he could use his athleticism to make plays. I'm worried that his success as a runner will hurt his development as a passer. I know there's always someone using Lamar Jackson as the example of how it can work, but I'd remind them outside of his truly amazing 2019 MVP season in terms of overall offensive efficiency it hasn't been all that great. This past season in15 games he passed for only 2757 yards (~184 yards/gm). This falls short of 3127 in 2019, but still seems fairly normal. It's great that he rushed for over 1000 yards for the 2nd straight season, but you have to wonder if that's sustainable? We've seen similar running ability from Mike Vick, Vince Young and Cam Newton only to realize that wasn't something a 10+ year career is built off of.

I want to be very clear, the fact that he's an exceptional athlete is a good thing. The issue I have is that he's making a large transition and I think a year of learning would do him good and I also think giving him too much too early will create certain habits that could slow his development as a passer.

I know this post is your opinion but you make it seem like it’s a guarantee for all rookies. If Fields started the season, he very well could have a Herbert or Prescott type of rookie season. Because of his athleticism and accuracy, he might allow for all weapons on the offense to increase their stats.

I don’t think using Hurts, Jackson, Young or Newton are good examples. They came from college programs where they were used as runners. Running has always been in their DNA. Fields has always been pass first. He does use his legs, but isn’t always looking to run and I think that will transition into the NFL.

I also don’t think you would have to throw a lot at him his rookie year. If the running game stays consistent, I think a mixture of simple concepts can go a long way. A couple of athletic plays, accurate balls and connections on deep passes can make defenses back off. A big reason the offense was terrible under Glennon, Trubisky, Foles was because of accuracy issues and no deep balls.

 

[Black Rainbow]

I know this post is your opinion but you make it seem like it’s a guarantee for all rookies. If Fields started the season, he very well could have a Herbert or Prescott type of rookie season. Because of his athleticism and accuracy, he might allow for all weapons on the offense to increase their stats.

I don’t think using Hurts, Jackson, Young or Newton are good examples. They came from college programs where they were used as runners. Running has always been in their DNA. Fields has always been pass first. He does use his legs, but isn’t always looking to run and I think that will transition into the NFL.

I also don’t think you would have to throw a lot at him his rookie year. If the running game stays consistent, I think a mixture of simple concepts can go a long way. A couple of athletic plays, accurate balls and connections on deep passes can make defenses back off. A big reason the offense was terrible under Glennon, Trubisky, Foles was because of accuracy issues and no deep balls.

Agreed.

Nagy isn't going to let him run and will be developing him as a passer. He'll only run when the play breaks down or the opposing defense gives him a huge lane for an easy first down.

I'm confident he can immediately be good like the guys I listed.

 

[MikeDitkaPolishSausage]

Agreed.

Nagy isn't going to let him run and will be developing him as a passer. He'll only run when the play breaks down or the opposing defense gives him a huge lane for an easy first down.

I'm confident he can immediately be good like the guys I listed.

I think Nagy would have designed run plays for him just like he did Trubisky, but would have to use them in the right scenario. But I agree that Fields would only choose to run with the situations you brought up.

 

[vabearsfan15]

I'm not sure how many games Justin will play but I'm hoping he averages 300 total yards between both passing and running per game.

I also would like to see 3 TD : 1 INT ratio.

Thats the hope at least. Its his rookie year, so he gets some leeway

 

[Zvbxrpl]

I never understood why Darnold was so highly rated.

Same reason Zach Wilson was this year.

They could make bum-slaying look pretty at the NCAA level even though they struggled against good college defenses, interviewed/tested impeccably, and had really pretty pro-day tapes without pads or NFL speed defensive ends trying to earhole them. There was a clear-cut #1 guy ahead of him draft-wise (Mayfield then and Lawrence this year) so pundits/fans needed to fawn over him to create controversy/change up otherwise monotonous draft talk during Feb-April.

As for Fields--keep things simple--adjust to NFL level speed, and be better than a half-field, one read guy more than Mitch. Hopefully after some experience--he can get to a point where he could see the open guy over the top the way Mitch never could.

 

[run and shoot]

I think Nagy would have designed run plays for him just like he did Trubisky, but would have to use them in the right scenario. But I agree that Fields would only choose to run with the situations you brought up.

I hope not on the designed run plays. I don't wanna see Fields taking unnecessary shots and end up injured.
DC's tell players to take them out on runs.

 

[MikeDitkaPolishSausage]

I hope not on the designed run plays. I don't wanna see Fields taking unnecessary shots and end up injured.
DC's tell players to take them out on runs.

I agree, I don’t want to see them either but it’s fucking Nagy. He will think he’s being clever with designed runs or option plays.

 

[remydat]

meh, that is not an apples to apples comparison as Fields played on a much better team with better skill position players. The fact remains, coming out, Darnold was thought of as a slightly better prospect then Fields, and as such, was rated higher.

Did you bother to research anything? Darnold played with Ronald Jones, Juju and a young Micahel Pittman Jr. That is 2 WRs drafted in the 2nd round and a 2nd round RB. So no Fields did not play with much better skill position players. You are 100% full of shit there. Juju was a 1,000 yard WR in college. Olave and Wilson have yet to put up 1k yard seasons and we don't know how they will fare in the NFL although they may end up drafted early if they continue to progress just as Pittman did after Darnold left.

There is no fact remains. You asked who we would take if we were Pace. I am telling you I would take Fields. I don't give a shit if others have Darnold higher just like I didn't give a shit that draft experts, the Browns and the Bears apparently had Trubisky higher than Watson and Mahomes.

In looking at their passing ability, there isn't a single thing Darnold does that Fields can't do. And once again the fact remains that Fields had better production and is a much better runner. So rather than trumpet draft experts who are wrong all the time when it comes to QBs, what are you claiming makes Darnold better?

 

[remydat]

I think his rookie stats will look closer to Kyler than Mahomes…and that’s not a bad thing. He has to battle through Nagy and mahomes/Herbert/Watson aren’t typical rookie years. My somewhat subjective guess but still well within reason, is fields has a better rookie year than kyler but not as good as Herbert and certainly not as good as mahomes. I think he’ll look the part though and be that dude for the bears for a long time

Mahomes played 1 game his rookie year. You can't really compare Mahomes 2nd year to a rookie QB because he had the luxury of learning for almost an entire year.

I expect him not to start, so I'm not going to let you know what I expect if the thing I don't expect to happen ends up happening...

If he starts the team will do worse passing wise. All receivers will generate less stats and RBs will face more run heavy fronts. This isn't specific to Fields, but just what happens with rookie QBs. Even great QBs like Russell Wilson had a 'game manager' type rookie season. It's just what happens when someone is making the transition.

For you Bears fans what I'm most fearful of is that he starts too early and becomes more of a runner than a passer. I'm facing the same issue with Jalen Hurts. Last year the OL was a jail break, so he looked better because he could use his athleticism to make plays. I'm worried that his success as a runner will hurt his development as a passer. I know there's always someone using Lamar Jackson as the example of how it can work, but I'd remind them outside of his truly amazing 2019 MVP season in terms of overall offensive efficiency it hasn't been all that great. This past season in15 games he passed for only 2757 yards (~184 yards/gm). This falls short of 3127 in 2019, but still seems fairly normal. It's great that he rushed for over 1000 yards for the 2nd straight season, but you have to wonder if that's sustainable? We've seen similar running ability from Mike Vick, Vince Young and Cam Newton only to realize that wasn't something a 10+ year career is built off of.

I want to be very clear, the fact that he's an exceptional athlete is a good thing. The issue I have is that he's making a large transition and I think a year of learning would do him good and I also think giving him too much too early will create certain habits that could slow his development as a passer.

Neither Jackson or Hurts were as well regarded passing the ball as Fields. Both were 1k yard rushers in college because rushing was a large part of their game. Fields never rushed for more than 500 yards despite 4.4 speed. That tells us he was much more comfortable throwing the ball than either Jackson or Hurts. Hell even Watson had a 1k yard season rushing. It simply was not the focal point for Fields. He ran when he had too.

I suppose there is always a risk he can develop happy feet in the NFL but I think his arm talent is too good for him to defer to running and he is well aware of how good his arm is. Jackson and Hurts are running QBs who are trying to develop as passers. Fields is a passer who simply has the elite athleticism to run if necessary.