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The 2018 Chicago Bears are playing the same teams as the 2006 Chicago Bears.
msadows
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So you're telling me we should see what sexy rexy is up to nowadays?
Wintermute
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Bearshomer
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What are the odds? 1 in 192?
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No. 1 in 16 actually.
They play the AFCE every 4 years and the NFCW every 3, so they're always going to play these divisions in the same season every 12 years. There are no odds on that part of it as it's 100% guaranteed they were going to play these divisions this year, just as it's guaranteed that they'll play these two divisions again in 2030 (assuming there's no realignment before then).
The odds only come into play on two games - the NFC opponents from the other two divisions that finished in the same place as us last year - Giants and Bucs. The chances of the NFCE team being the Giants again (1 in 4) multiplied by the NFCS team being the Bucs again (1 in 4) = 1 in 16, or 6.25%.
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I feel like this isn't true. I don't have any numbers to back it up, and quite frankly, math is fuckin' hard. I just feel like this isn't correct. Thank you.
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Well, it is, so ...
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Mongo approves this post
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Some men are born to fail. Others have it thrust upon them. Fact or Density?
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You are taking the first part which is 1/12 as a given then forgetting about it and then doing the 1 out of 4 and 1 out of 4. I believe it should be 12*4*4 or 192. So we on average should have the same schedule 1 out of every 192 years. It can't be 16 as we only play those same divisions 1 out of 12 years.
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The odds of us playing these divisions this year was 100%. You are doing it based on any given year, but in other years the odds of playing is these teams is 0% since we couldn't play the AFCE and NFCW in the same season in other years.
the odds of the 16 game schedule featuring all the same teams in 2018 as 2006 is 1 in 16. Last year and the year before and any other year outside of 2018, 2030, 2042 etc, is 0%.
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The odds I gave are the odds of having the same exact schedule as another year, which is the topic. The odds you are giving are the odds of having the same schedule given you already know the divisions you are playing, which is not the topic.
mecha
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it's been 12 years. 12 is divisible by 3 and 4 -- the same amount of years to rotate divisions in the NFC and AFC conferences. mind=blown
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Just here to confirm that this is indeed correct.
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But there's still 2 variables.
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That’s wrong. The odds of playing the exact same non-divisional teams on any given year would be 1/16. The odds of playing the the exact same non-divisional team on that 12th year is much worse.
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So you think we have the same exact schedule on average every 16 years? Trust me, we don't.
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Yes, that's what I said. You have to multiply the 12 by 16, it is 192.
