Fact or Destiny?

[didshereallysaythat]

Bearmick is right. Every year, every team will always play the same 14 teams every 12 years. So next year, the Bears will play the AFC West and the NFC East just as they did in 2007. So the odds in any year of playing all 16 the same merely relies on those 2 games. Which is indeed 1 in 16 (not taking into account how good the teams should be in a given year ofcourse).

This probably happens all the time. I wouldn't be surprised if it happened to the Bears already.

 

[Novak]

So you think we have the same exact schedule on average every 16 years? Trust me, we don't.

No, every 12 years we have a 1 in 16 chance of getting the same schedule.

 

[bearmick]

That’s wrong. The odds of playing the exact same non-divisional teams on any given year would be 1/16. The odds of playing the the exact same non-divisional team on that 12th year is much worse.

LOL it's the same 1/16 every year.

A prerequisite for having all 16 teams the same is that you play the same AFC and NFC divisions, which happens every 12 years. You can eliminate that factor first since it's set. All you're left with is the same 1/16 chance of playing the same conference division placed teams as any other year.

 

[sevvy]

Bearmick:

Even though he's WRONG! Again, no evidence, no math, no supporting theories, no field experts to support my claims, just a gut feeling. I'm going with my gut, baby!

 

[bearmick]

Bearmick:

Even though he's WRONG! Again, no evidence, no math, no supporting theories, no field experts to support my claims, just a gut feeling. I'm going with my gut, baby!

This really isn't complicated.

 

[DaaBears]

No, every 12 years we have a 1 in 16 chance of getting the same schedule.

You are close but not completing it. So if every 12 years you have a 1/16 chance of having the same schedule, you have to multiply the 12 times 16 to answer the question at hand : WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF HAVING THE SAME EXACT SCHEDULE IN ANY TWO YEARS!

 

[xer0h0ur]

Bearmick:

Even though he's WRONG! Again, no evidence, no math, no supporting theories, no field experts to support my claims, just a gut feeling. I'm going with my gut, baby!

 

[didshereallysaythat]

You are close but not completing it. So if every 12 years you have a 1/16 chance of having the same schedule, you have to multiply the 12 times 16 to answer the question at hand : WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF HAVING THE SAME EXACT SCHEDULE IN ANY TWO YEARS!

It's not every 12 years, it's every year. It's just that every 12 years has the same 8 team mix (i.e. AFC East and NFC West).

 

[Novak]

You are close but not completing it. So if every 12 years you have a 1/16 chance of having the same schedule, you have to multiply the 12 times 16 to answer the question at hand : WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF HAVING THE SAME EXACT SCHEDULE IN ANY TWO YEARS!

But it's literally impossible to have the same schedule outside of a 12 year cycle. Not statistically improbable - impossible.

Why would we even consider those years in the equation? Seems silly to me.

 

[sevvy]

This really isn't complicated.

Stop acting all high and mighty about your fuckin' math "skills", Mick! Who do you think you are anyway, Alfred Einstein???

 

[JoJoBoxer]

No. 1 in 16 actually.

They play the AFCE every 4 years and the NFCW every 3, so they're always going to play these divisions in the same season every 12 years. There are no odds on that part of it as it's 100% guaranteed they were going to play these divisions this year, just as it's guaranteed that they'll play these two divisions again in 2030 (assuming there's no realignment before then).

The odds only come into play on two games - the NFC opponents from the other two divisions that finished in the same place as us last year - Giants and Bucs. The chances of the NFCE team being the Giants again (1 in 4) multiplied by the NFCS team being the Bucs again (1 in 4) = 1 in 16, or 6.25%.

Don't forget expansion too.

Nice points though.

 

[Novak]

It doesn't really make sense in math to account for impossibilities.. can't think of a single other instance where that is done.

 

[Novak]

Also, DaaBears, I don't even see the wording "any 2 years" in anybody's wording outside of your own.. did anyone even phrase the question like that?

Not trying to pick on you..

 

[bearmick]

You are close but not completing it. So if every 12 years you have a 1/16 chance of having the same schedule, you have to multiply the 12 times 16 to answer the question at hand : WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF HAVING THE SAME EXACT SCHEDULE IN ANY TWO YEARS!

No, because the same odds of it happening in 2006 and 2018 also happen in 2007/2019, 2008/2020 etc.

It's really this simple - each year you have a 1/16 chance of playing the exact same teams as you did 12 years ago. The chances of playing the same teams as you did in any other years between then and now are 0, because you aren't playing the same combination of AFC and NFC divisions.

 

[DaaBears]

But it's literally impossible to have the same schedule outside of a 12 year cycle. Not statistically improbable - impossible.

Why would we even consider those years in the equation? Seems silly to me.

Once you got the 1/16 part of the equation out of the way, you know those 2 teams, now you have to deal with is this one of those years that we play those divisions. ALL of this has to happen to have the same schedule. You know you are playing the same divisions every 12 years, so that's 1 out of 12 right there, then there are another 16 combinations of possible results.

 

[xer0h0ur]

Literal figurative speculation. SMH

 

[bearmick]

Once you got the 1/16 part of the equation out of the way, you know those 2 teams, now you have to deal with is this one of those years that we play those divisions. ..

But that isn't what he said. OP said we have the same schedule in 2018 as we did in 2006 (the SB year, obviously). The chances of that are, in fact, 1/16.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

No, because the same odds of it happening in 2006 and 2018 also happen in 2007/2019, 2008/2020 etc.

It's really this simple - each year you have a 1/16 chance of playing the exact same teams as you did 12 years ago. The chances of playing the same teams as you did in any other years between then and now are 0, because you aren't playing the same combination of AFC and NFC divisions.

Now if you were to say "what are the chances of the next time the Bears playing the same opponents in 2030"? Then that changes things because you are then predicting the year on top of the 1/16. That is where I think they are getting confused.

 

[DaaBears]

No, because the same odds of it happening in 2006 and 2018 also happen in 2007/2019, 2008/2020 etc.

It's really this simple - each year you have a 1/16 chance of playing the exact same teams as you did 12 years ago. The chances of playing the same teams as you did in any other years between then and now are 0, because you aren't playing the same combination of AFC and NFC divisions.

The question is not what are the same odds of having the same schedule every 12 years. It is what are the odds of having the same schedule in any 2 years.

 

[Novak]

The question is not what are the same odds of having the same schedule every 12 years. It is what are the odds of having the same schedule in any 2 years.

By who tho? I don't see that question lol