Ugh, enough of the 'high risk' or 'low risk' stuff. Select the candidate who's philosophy and vision best aligns with yours and you'll mitigate that risk whether the candidate has 10 years of head coaching experience or no head coaching experience.
I get that Fox is a safer choice because of his experience, but look at a guy like Chuck Pagano. He was leading a young team and has done very well there without little coordinator experience and no prior head coaching experience.
If Fox is that guy, hire him. If he's not, don't hire him. If our goal is to truly win championships and be in contention year, hiring a guy just because he's more experienced is a perfect way to make sure that doesn't happen.
This could very well end up like a Joel Quenneville situation or a Joe Maddon situation. First few go arounds didn't work out and they then find a home in Chicago that is the right fit for them (jury is out on Maddon still, but he's pretty damn good). It also could end up like a Lou Pinella situation if we hire a guy just based on credentials.
If Pace feels like this team needs a steady hand that will offer stability and also checks off the boxes for who he wants in a head coach, great. If Pace feels like his relationship with Marrone and Marrone's coaching ability would be the answer, hire him. If Pace feels like this team needs someone brand new who he can build the identity of the Bears with, hire him.
Whoever has the best combination of the traits he is looking for is the guy he will hire. Whoever will provide that Sean Payton spark.