Gabriel has said he'd be a mistake.

[WindyCity]

Bullshit. There's 3 other years to say that, including the most recent one. Go ahead and cherry pick that one year that's the clear outlier so far though.

You are cherry picking his worst year [8.8].

If you average him out he is a 10.1 YPC player, which is solid for a player in the slot.

 

[WindyCity]

You can't just "guess" that with no precedence. Just like you pay on the open market, you pay to keep guys OFF the open market.

The Bears offer to Jeffery was more than what he got from the Eagles. But it didn't keep him off the market, because it wasn't enough. If Hopkins didn't get that amount of money, he'd be in this free agent class (more likely franchised).

Fine, take the projection out. Although we know that multiple teams bidding is how you get the highest number.

The most recent contracts will tell you elite WR money is 16-17 million.

The most recent good WR contracts have been 13-14 million.

14 million is not elite money in 2018. It is Adams/Jeffery money.

 

[satchice]

Don't understand the point of this. You saying that's not elite WR money? 4 WRs get paid more than 14Mil (Evans is not one of them). Adams technically isn't one until 2020.

You said "13-14 Mil is most certainly elite WR money" Name me an elite WR who will sign for 13-14M ???? don't pull up contract in the past project a future contract that you think will be under 13-14M.. 13-14M avg is no longer elite money plain and simple. #1 WR contracts should avg 17M+

 

[WindyCity]

You said "13-14 Mil is most certainly elite WR money" Name me an elite WR who will sign for 13-14M ???? don't pull up contract in the past project a future contract that you think will be under 13-14M.. 13-14M avg is no longer elite money plain and simple. #1 WR contracts should avg 17M+

If it was 2016 there were some, but then the cap went up 30 million.

 

[rawdawg]

You are cherry picking his worst year [8.8].

If you average him out he is a 10.1 YPC player, which is solid for a player in the slot.

Still less than Golden Tate, Albert Wilson (who have similar average yards per target) and 88 other WRs in the NFL based on 2017 numbers.

 

[rawdawg]

You said "13-14 Mil is most certainly elite WR money" Name me an elite WR who will sign for 13-14M ???? don't pull up contract in the past project a future contract that you think will be under 13-14M.. 13-14M avg is no longer elite money plain and simple. #1 WR contracts should avg 17M+

Ok what the hell ever. This is a stupid point anyway. Ok 13-14 is not elite money, which works because Landry isn't elite.

 

[rawdawg]

Fine, take the projection out. Although we know that multiple teams bidding is how you get the highest number.

The most recent contracts will tell you elite WR money is 16-17 million.

The most recent good WR contracts have been 13-14 million.

14 million is not elite money in 2018. It is Adams/Jeffery money.

AKA better WRs than Landry money.

 

[WindyCity]

Still less than Golden Tate, Albert Wilson (who have similar average yards per target) and 88 other WRs in the NFL based on 2017 numbers.

Albert Wilson had a really great year last year. in 2016 he averaged 9 YPC.

 

[satchice]

Bullshit. There's 3 other years to say that, including the most recent one. Go ahead and cherry pick that one year that's the clear outlier so far though.

Cherry pick .... wholly shit that is what you do, with this 8.8 BS the year he played 0 snaps with his starting QB! His career avg with the bad 2017 year is still 10.1 which is not bad for a slot WR.

the 2016 year is a lot more relevant then the 2017 year that he had to play with handicapped QBs. 2016 was a normal year that he showed progression at age 23-24.

It should be obvious that you should discount his rookie year and any year that he had to play with a backup/emergency QB more then 50% of the time.

 

[WindyCity]

AKA better WRs than Landry money.

I am not sure by what metric you are saying that Adams and Jeffery are better WRs than Landry other than gut feeling. Their production levels are almost identical over the last 4 years.

Landry is in that group of guys who is not elite, but is really good, and he is totally right to be asking for money in that range.

 

[Adipost]

Still less than Golden Tate, Albert Wilson (who have similar average yards per target) and 88 other WRs in the NFL based on 2017 numbers.

Landry was a superstar in Gase’s offense his first year. This year, because of Cutler and the offensive line/running game, Gase had to change his offense. He knows Cutler’s limitations, and that is why most of the calls were for Cutler to get rid of the ball ASAP. very much like he did with Cutler in 2015.

 

[rawdawg]

I am not sure by what metric you are saying that Adams and Jeffery are better WRs than Landry other than gut feeling. Their production levels are almost identical over the last 4 years.

Landry is in that group of guys who is not elite, but is really good, and he is totally right to be asking for money in that range.

Did anybody read the link I've linked twice?

And their production isn't the same if you give those guys the 161 chances that Landry got.

 

[WindyCity]

Ok what the hell ever. This is a stupid point anyway. Ok 13-14 is not elite money, which works because Landry isn't elite.

Exactly

 

[WindyCity]

Did anybody read the link I've linked twice?

And their production isn't the same if you give those guys the 161 chances that Landry got.

Based on 2017 it would be better because of the difference in YPC.

But based on a 4 year average of catch % and YPC they would be close Jeffery is higher, Adams is lower.

 

[rawdawg]

Landry was a superstar in Gase’s offense his first year. This year, because of Cutler and the offensive line/running game, Gase had to change his offense. He knows Cutler’s limitations, and that is why most of the calls were for Cutler to get rid of the ball ASAP. very much like he did with Cutler in 2015.

Not according to advanced metrics he was not. And that still doesn't help explain why Landry did less with the ball in his hands than several other receivers. Not even talking yards per catch. Talking yards after the catch, per catch.

 

[Adipost]

Did anybody read the link I've linked twice?

And their production isn't the same if you give those guys the 161 chances that Landry got.

All the stats in that link are based off of the 2017 Cutler broken offensive season.

 

[WindyCity]

Not according to advanced metrics he was not. And that still doesn't help explain why Landry did less with the ball in his hands than several other receivers. Not even talking yards per catch. Talking yards after the catch, per catch.

When you catch the ball close to the line there are a lot more guys to tackle you.

A guy like Tyreek Hill has really good YAC because he often runs by one DB and gains 40 yards of YAC off it.

 

[rawdawg]

All the stats in that link are based off of the 2017 Cutler broken offensive season.

Right so it never happened. Yet, we're arguing 4-year trends for Davante Adams who barely saw the field his 1st year.

 

[WindyCity]

Right so it never happened. Yet, we're arguing 4-year trends for Davante Adams who barely saw the field his 1st year.

No, 2017 counts, but it is not the only statistical data point that should be considered.

You cannot look at 2017 in isolation, the same way that it is not fair to look at one good year in isolation.


Davante Adams started 11 games as a rookie and played in all 16. You know who also started 11 games as a rookie?

 

[rawdawg]

When you catch the ball close to the line there are a lot more guys to tackle you.

A guy like Tyreek Hill has really good YAC because he often runs by one DB and gains 40 yards of YAC off it.

Golden Tate caught the ball closer to the LOS and got more yards per catch. Albert Wilson nearly doubled Landry's RAC production. Tyreke Hill has a really good YAC because he's capable of consistently catching passes down the field.

You are simply much more likely to get better yardage throwing the ball down the field. In that link, it says that the expected yardage from throwing the ball to the worst catch % in the league (Josh Doctson, 44.6%) is higher than throwing it to Landry. Sure 45% completions look terrible, but it moves the ball more than completing 66% to Landry, thus puts more points on the board.

It's no secret the Dolphins perform worse when Landry catches more. They had Kenny Stills on that team who can take the top off the defense. They were better off throwing it to him 161 times and letting more balls fall to the ground than getting small ineffective chunks with Landry.