Gabriel has said he'd be a mistake.

[modo]

He plays the game with a fierce temperament that sometimes goes over the line with personal fouls, but I have never seen anything where his teammates question him or he is like OBJ.

It is possible some of this stuff is overblown, but Landry has no problem publicly ripping into his team.

 

[Luke]

I think the only way to tell landry's value is to compare him to the most recent WR who signed for 4/58 mil, 34mil guaranteed. Here are their last 2 years stats comparison. Landry obviously has an enormous amount of targets/receptions but he should not see near that much in Nagy's system. The glaring stat is really the # of TD's between them and this alone separates worth IMO. I would say Landry's worth is 4/48mil on the top end which I believe is where the Phins maxed out in their offer. Since Pace is the most desperate GM out there, it wouldn't surprise me if he duplicates Adams contract and offers it to Landry.

Rec yards Avg TD 20+ 40+ 1st downs 1st %
Adams 149 1882 12.6 22 25 7 90 60
Landry 206 2123 10.3 13 22 4 112 54

 

[WindyCity]

I think the only way to tell landry's value is to compare him to the most recent WR who signed for 4/58 mil, 34mil guaranteed. Here are their last 2 years stats comparison. Landry obviously has an enormous amount of targets/receptions but he should not see near that much in Nagy's system. The glaring stat is really the # of TD's between them and this alone separates worth IMO. I would say Landry's worth is 4/48mil on the top end which I believe is where the Phins maxed out in their offer. Since Pace is the most desperate GM out there, it wouldn't surprise me if he duplicates Adams contract and offers it to Landry.

Rec yards Avg TD 20+ 40+ 1st downs 1st %
Adams 149 1882 12.6 22 25 7 90 60
Landry 206 2123 10.3 13 22 4 112 54

One had 22 starts with a HOF QB and the other had 16 with Jay Cutler.

One plays in the slot and the other on the outside.

 

[Bearin' Down]

Landry is basically a poor man's Brandon Marshall. Even the mental issues and pseudo-control over them aren't up to par. No thanks for number one money.

 

[WindyCity]

Golden Tate caught the ball closer to the LOS and got more yards per catch. Albert Wilson nearly doubled Landry's RAC production. Tyreke Hill has a really good YAC because he's capable of consistently catching passes down the field.

You are simply much more likely to get better yardage throwing the ball down the field. In that link, it says that the expected yardage from throwing the ball to the worst catch % in the league (Josh Doctson, 44.6%) is higher than throwing it to Landry. Sure 45% completions look terrible, but it moves the ball more than completing 66% to Landry, thus puts more points on the board.

It's no secret the Dolphins perform worse when Landry catches more. They had Kenny Stills on that team who can take the top off the defense. They were better off throwing it to him 161 times and letting more balls fall to the ground than getting small ineffective chunks with Landry.

Golden Tate did not catch the ball closer to the line of scrimmage. Landry has the shortest distance of throw last season.

A big bunch of that goes on how pathetic Cutler was.

 

[WindyCity]

Landry is basically a poor man's Brandon Marshall. Even the mental issues and pseudo-control over them aren't up to par. No thanks for number one money.

What mental health issues?

It isn't #1 money.

 

[WindyCity]

Run After the Catch

Landry: 4.6
Tate: 6.9
Hill: 6.1
Wright: 3.3
Wilson 7.6

2016 Landry: 6.7

 

[rawdawg]

No, 2017 counts, but it is not the only statistical data point that should be considered.

You cannot look at 2017 in isolation, the same way that it is not fair to look at one good year in isolation.


Davante Adams started 11 games as a rookie and played in all 16. You know who also started 11 games as a rookie?

Even if you take him at his career average of 10.1 ypc, he's still 90th. I have been very open to taking his career as a whole.

Landry was a rookie in 2014. 9 ypc. Can kinda throw it out the window because of his youth and inexperience. But then he put up 8.8 this year. Those are the 2 most similar seasons he has.

2015 was better 10.5 ypc, closest to his career average.

2016 was Tannehill's best year. So, I'll give you maybe if Tannehill was healthy, they would have been able to continue that with their rapport together.

But that's still 1 out of 4 years. Shit happens in the NFL. There's no guarantee that Trubisky would even be as good as Tannehill was in 2016.

But overall, I think the big issue with Landry is that a throw to him is a throw not going to anyone else. It's not his fault per se, but I don't want 161 targets to my slot WR. Maybe that's a design flaw in the Dolphins offense (but it was essentially the same design before Gase). Maybe it's not. But when you take a normal pass target distribution, Landry should only get 90-110 targets. At that point, you're looking at a 70 catch, 800 yard type of WR (that also typically doesn't score much outside of 2017). Not nearly worth the money. And if you make him earn the money by throwing to him 160 times, you are making your team worse because you aren't taking huge chunks of yardage available on the outside.

 

[rawdawg]

Golden Tate did not catch the ball closer to the line of scrimmage. Landry has the shortest distance of throw last season.

A big bunch of that goes on how pathetic Cutler was.

Yes, he did.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-intended-yards

 

[satchice]

I think the only way to tell landry's value is to compare him to the most recent WR who signed for 4/58 mil, 34mil guaranteed. Here are their last 2 years stats comparison. Landry obviously has an enormous amount of targets/receptions but he should not see near that much in Nagy's system. The glaring stat is really the # of TD's between them and this alone separates worth IMO. I would say Landry's worth is 4/48mil on the top end which I believe is where the Phins maxed out in their offer. Since Pace is the most desperate GM out there, it wouldn't surprise me if he duplicates Adams contract and offers it to Landry.

Rec yards Avg TD 20+ 40+ 1st downs 1st %
Adams 149 1882 12.6 22 25 7 90 60
Landry 206 2123 10.3 13 22 4 112 54

Simple yes or no question... If, Aaron Rodgers was the Dolphins QB would Landry's stats be better?

 

[gallagher]

Listing all those players and the only one who might be available for the Bears is D. Thomas..... So Landry is the front runner by default... Get Both. Still much better than any one we have.

Oh god, imagine if we got both AND drafted Ridley to be the other outside receiver! We'd have a good corps now and a solid start on building for the future. We wouldn't be relying on Meredith to come back fully from a knee injury or Inman to be less sporadic. With our running game, the only thing we left to do to help Trubisky is solve our OL depth issues (or get our blockers bionic limbs to solve our injury problems)

Allen Robinson and Sammy Watkins are better and as available as Landry is right now.

13-14 Mil is most certainly elite WR money. There's like 1 WR that gets paid more than that.

Allen Robinson and Sammy Watkins worse injury histories than Landry, and both have crossed the 1000 yard threshold once apiece. If you thought fans were pissed at White for not seeing the field, imagine how they'll feel after you shell out big bucks to fix our receiving corps only to see the same result. Being injured in the past doesn't mean you'll be injured in the future, but there's nothing that they've done on the field that makes me confident that either would outperform Landry for us. Hell, Landry did better with Jay-Fucking-Cutler last year than Watkins did on the Rams new, "innovative" offense.

 

[Luke]

Simple yes or no question... If, Aaron Rodgers was the Dolphins QB would Landry's stats be better?

of course, as he did have 2 less TD's and 9 fewer 20+ catches with Hundley in there. I would still say Adams is worth more but like I said, Pace is desperate and will have to overpay for him. Man, the combine and FA cant come soon enough!

 

[satchice]

I'm still waiting for your list of better slot receivers available. For that matter any better WR available, and no one thinks Watkins or Robinson will be available.

 

[rawdawg]

I'm still waiting for your list of better slot receivers available. For that matter any better WR available, and no one thinks Watkins or Robinson will be available.

There's probably no better slot WR available. I'll give you that. Though I could argue Albert Wilson (more separation, better RAC, similar catch rate)

But if you think it's fair to ask me to name better WRs while you make the caveat that the best 2 don't count, then I don't know what to tell you.

 

[Luke]

Can someone please pro rate Landrys numbers targets/catches down and Wilsons targets/catches up to where they expect them to be within Nagys system for a more accurate comparison?

 

[rawdawg]

Can someone please pro rate Landrys numbers targets/catches down and Wilsons targets/catches up to where they expect them to be within Nagys system for a more accurate comparison?

To be fair, I'm sure Nagy would throw Landry the ball a lot more. The question I have is would it be because of his ability or his paycheck? Even if it's the latter it's fine if Landry can consistently run deeper more productive routes.

 

[satchice]

of course, as he did have 2 less TD's and 9 fewer 20+ catches with Hundley in there. I would still say Adams is worth more but like I said, Pace is desperate and will have to overpay for him. Man, the combine and FA cant come soon enough!

That is a good point... IF Adams would of made it to free agency, one would have to think he would be getting over paid as well.

The options that are realistic if we don't get Landry are:

Draft Ridley with #8 or possible trade up for him. -- trading down and getting Ridley is a pipe dream.
Picking up tier 2 or 3 level players to compete for jobs with are current WR and wish for a miracle.
Wait till next season and prey for a miracle that Mike Evans or ODJ are FAs and prepare to pay them 19M

If these things don't pan out then Trubisky goes into his 3rd season with not even an above avg #2 and it is time to start over and draft a new franchise QB that the new GM hand picks.

 

[WindyCity]

Yes, he did.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-intended-yards

On targets yes.

On catches Landry had the lowest yards before he caught the ball.

 

[WindyCity]

Can someone please pro rate Landrys numbers targets/catches down and Wilsons targets/catches up to where they expect them to be within Nagys system for a more accurate comparison?

I doubt he would be targeted 62 times, that is very low.

He should be around the 124 that Maclin had in the system.

 

[rawdawg]

On targets yes.

On catches Landry had the lowest yards before he caught the ball.

All that shows is that Landry had less variance in where his passes were thrown. Lions at least took some deep shots with Tate.