IGT: Cubs @ Giants Game 4(NLDS)

[SilenceS]

Figuring out how to get Baez more regular playing time next year while still balancing the lineup is going to be a real issue. Assuming Fowler departs via FA, Zobrist is the only hitter left capable of leading off, and so the Cubs will still have to find a way to keep him in the lineup regularly, which means more time in the outfield where there's already a logjam between Schwarber, Soler, Almora, and Heyward--and sometimes Bryant.

If I am the Cubs, I am thinking long and hard of packaging Arrieta and Soler for a young arm. I still think Soler bat will be fine, but his limited D and every other ability makes him expandable. I still believe Schwarber will catch one day a week. I also think Heyward and Almora will platoon CF with Heyward getting RF starts as well. Things will start figuring themselves out. Not everyone is going to produce. If they do, then that is one of the best problems to have ever.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

If I am the Cubs, I am thinking long and hard of packaging Arrieta and Soler for a young arm. I still think Soler bat will be fine, but his limited D and every other ability makes him expandable. I still believe Schwarber will catch one day a week. I also think Heyward and Almora will platoon CF with Heyward getting RF starts as well. Things will start figuring themselves out. Not everyone is going to produce. If they do, then that is one of the best problems to have ever.

I've been saying all year, I'd move Arrieta this winter. He's walking after next season anyways and we could replenish our system.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If I am the Cubs, I am thinking long and hard of packaging Arrieta and Soler for a young arm. I still think Soler bat will be fine, but his limited D and every other ability makes him expandable. I still believe Schwarber will catch one day a week. I also think Heyward and Almora will platoon CF with Heyward getting RF starts as well. Things will start figuring themselves out. Not everyone is going to produce. If they do, then that is one of the best problems to have ever.

I absolutely agree with this and have been saying that trading Arrieta this winter could be very smart. The issue is that you have to find a contender to make that deal. Say the Indians don't make it all the way this year. Would they trade Danny Salazar for a package headed by Soler and Arrieta? They might, except the word has been that they don't really like Soler much. Still Arrieta gives them a veteran starter to go along with Kluber and Carrasco.

 

[DanTown]

What? This is nothing like Soler. Baez had almost a 3fWAR this year as a part time player playing multiple positions. He excelled when he started. No one is saying Zobrist is being traded, but the Cubs dont need all high OBA guys. Baez could legit give a .900 OPS with that D. Zobrist showed this year he can not play a full year without getting extremely tired mid season.

Baez is much more than a spark plug player. You are trying to pass him off as an Augie Ojeda.

Baez first off wasn't that infrequent. He was a 2.7 fWAR getting 450 PA meaning you'd put him at about 3.6 fWAR with 600 PA. Russell this year was 3.9 and Zobrist was 4.0 meaning both guys were better than Baez. Doesn't mean Baez isn't good; just means he's not better than either guy.

Secondly, saying he could have a legit 900 OPS is laughable. He was at .737 this year; what part of his game do you think he's going to improve by almost 170 OPS points to get anywhere close to that? He'd have to all of the sudden slug in a way that his approach and contact stats simply does not allow for. I like Javy and love his utility and defense but just like Jorge last year, you can't take a good week and try and make that guy an all-star.

Third, Zobrist is your leadoff hitter next year (most likely) and he's not a guy who the Cubs want to playing full-time in the OF so it's highly unlikely that 2B is open for Baez. While you can say they don't need all high OBP guys, they're losing Fowler and replacing him with Almora so that's a decline of about 5-6% in terms of OBP production. Yeah he can play the OF when injuries dictate it but he played only 286 innings out there this year (so 33 full games roughly) and he's getting older so that number is probably going to stay close to that.

Baez doesn't need to play any more than he did this year.

 

[DanTown]

I absolutely agree with this and have been saying that trading Arrieta this winter could be very smart. The issue is that you have to find a contender to make that deal. Say the Indians don't make it all the way this year. Would they trade Danny Salazar for a package headed by Soler and Arrieta? They might, except the word has been that they don't really like Soler much. Still Arrieta gives them a veteran starter to go along with Kluber and Carrasco.

Why on god's earth would the Indians trade Salazar and his four more years of team control for a year of Arrieta and Soler? Arrieta's cost (even in arbitration) is quite a lot for them so there's almost no chance they sign him long term and Jake's production is dangerously close to Salazar's the last three years except for Jake's second half last year, which is starting to look more like a massive outlier than a new normal. While I like Soler, I simply don't think the difference in four years of value v 1 one year of value is made up by Jorge since Jorge has simply shown any ability to stay healthy and productive, regardless of talent.

This is more directed to the general board consensus than you but Jake is represented by Scott Boras and will be a FA in a year; the Cubs are not likely to go out and find a team that wants to trade multiple years of a TOR arm to get Arrieta; especially now that Arrieta has shown signs of regression to being an elite pitcher. It would have been one thing to trade him last winter when you were giving up two years and he had just peaked in terms of his on-field production. Now though, you're basically trading a guy who is good but not one of the three best pitchers in baseball. That's not so valuable teams would give up cost controlled arms for just a single season of production.

I think there's a trade market for Jake but the types of arms the Cubs would get back are either going to be massively lower ceiling, make their 2016 team worse, and/or have injury issues. Like the Angels would probably trade Jake for Andrew Heaney; should the Cubs make that deal?

 

[DanTown]

If I am the Cubs, I am thinking long and hard of packaging Arrieta and Soler for a young arm. I still think Soler bat will be fine, but his limited D and every other ability makes him expandable. I still believe Schwarber will catch one day a week. I also think Heyward and Almora will platoon CF with Heyward getting RF starts as well. Things will start figuring themselves out. Not everyone is going to produce. If they do, then that is one of the best problems to have ever.

Cubs don't really have the bats against lefties to really trade Jorge and get back a pitcher.

The odds are the Cubs simply wouldn't get back a better pitcher than Jake in the deal as it would be illogical for any team to trade a better pitcher than Jake to get Soler too since Soler is such a questionmark to be a full-time/productive OF. If it was Eloy, maybe teams think about the deal differently because there is the future hope for a ton of years of production.

There is all this talk about having to make a trade and I simply don't see it. Fowler and Ross' PA can be eaten up by Schwarber's return and a full year of Contreras. The rest of the team could keep their numbers in terms of PA and it's plenty of playing time. You start trading guys like Soler, etc and the team is simply one injury away from losing the flexibility and depth that they love to have.

 

[Boobaby1]

Why on god's earth would the Indians trade Salazar and his four more years of team control for a year of Arrieta and Soler? Arrieta's cost (even in arbitration) is quite a lot for them so there's almost no chance they sign him long term and Jake's production is dangerously close to Salazar's the last three years except for Jake's second half last year, which is starting to look more like a massive outlier than a new normal. While I like Soler, I simply don't think the difference in four years of value v 1 one year of value is made up by Jorge since Jorge has simply shown any ability to stay healthy and productive, regardless of talent.

This is more directed to the general board consensus than you but Jake is represented by Scott Boras and will be a FA in a year; the Cubs are not likely to go out and find a team that wants to trade multiple years of a TOR arm to get Arrieta; especially now that Arrieta has shown signs of regression to being an elite pitcher. It would have been one thing to trade him last winter when you were giving up two years and he had just peaked in terms of his on-field production. Now though, you're basically trading a guy who is good but not one of the three best pitchers in baseball. That's not so valuable teams would give up cost controlled arms for just a single season of production.

I think there's a trade market for Jake but the types of arms the Cubs would get back are either going to be massively lower ceiling, make their 2016 team worse, and/or have injury issues. Like the Angels would probably trade Jake for Andrew Heaney; should the Cubs make that deal?

I think you would have to sweeten that deal with Ian Happ for instance because Cleveland would be taking on a lot of Salary with Arrieta and Soler. Roughly 18-19 million.

They would need some cost control somewhere, and they surely would lose out on Arrieta the year after, so that would leave them with Soler and Happ. An infielder and outfielder.

Some package like that would be the starting point.

How bout this? Lets win the WS this year. Then I could care less who they package and/or re-sign.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Why on god's earth would the Indians trade Salazar and his four more years of team control for a year of Arrieta and Soler? Arrieta's cost (even in arbitration) is quite a lot for them so there's almost no chance they sign him long term and Jake's production is dangerously close to Salazar's the last three years except for Jake's second half last year, which is starting to look more like a massive outlier than a new normal. While I like Soler, I simply don't think the difference in four years of value v 1 one year of value is made up by Jorge since Jorge has simply shown any ability to stay healthy and productive, regardless of talent.

This is more directed to the general board consensus than you but Jake is represented by Scott Boras and will be a FA in a year; the Cubs are not likely to go out and find a team that wants to trade multiple years of a TOR arm to get Arrieta; especially now that Arrieta has shown signs of regression to being an elite pitcher. It would have been one thing to trade him last winter when you were giving up two years and he had just peaked in terms of his on-field production. Now though, you're basically trading a guy who is good but not one of the three best pitchers in baseball. That's not so valuable teams would give up cost controlled arms for just a single season of production.

I think there's a trade market for Jake but the types of arms the Cubs would get back are either going to be massively lower ceiling, make their 2016 team worse, and/or have injury issues. Like the Angels would probably trade Jake for Andrew Heaney; should the Cubs make that deal?

I don't think Arrieta would be a main target in a deal but for a contending team that needs some offense he might make sense as a 1 year replacement. I threw Salazar out there as they only one I could think of. Mostly I'm thinking of a team on a short window that wants some bats for the future. Listen 1 1/2 years of Jeff Samardzija and 1/2 year of Jason Hammel netted Addison Russell. Arrieta could be appealing to someone. As for teh Angels they have almost no path to contention so I can't see them wanting Arrieta at all.

 

[DanTown]

I think you would have to sweeten that deal with Ian Happ for instance because Cleveland would be taking on a lot of Salary with Arrieta and Soler. Roughly 18-19 million.

They would need some cost control somewhere, and they surely would lose out on Arrieta the year after, so that would leave them with Soler and Happ. An infielder and outfielder.

Some package like that would be the starting point.

How bout this? Lets win the WS this year. Then I could care less who they package and/or re-sign.

No way I trade a bat like Happ (who will be important in two, probably three years) just to get Salazar's 2018-2020 production. I just don't think it's that necessary for you to win.

The Cubs right now are roughly paying Arrieta, Lackey, and Hammel 36 million so the Cubs do have the flexibility to give Jake a deal that's like 20-25 million a year and not worry about the long term costs because you hopefully can find arms to come in and be decent 4/5 arms in front of an elite defense and pay them the same rate that those three are getting from the Cubs. I said last year you try and get him for 6/150 (buying out his arb years) so after this year, I'd go something like 5/110 (buying out his arb year next year) and give him an out after three years (and 50 million on the table) if he wants to be a FA and get one last bite at the apple. If he really wants to be a FA, you play him next year, get your 3-4 WAR (maybe higher, maybe lower) and let him leave and take the pick.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

How bout this? Lets win the WS this year. Then I couldn't care less who they package and/or re-sign.

That's the crux of it right there. Winning the WS would allow Theo and company to do some things that they probably couldn't do if they fall short.

 

[DanTown]

I don't think Arrieta would be a main target in a deal but for a contending team that needs some offense he might make sense as a 1 year replacement. I threw Salazar out there as they only one I could think of. Mostly I'm thinking of a team on a short window that wants some bats for the future. Listen 1 1/2 years of Jeff Samardzija and 1/2 year of Jason Hammel netted Addison Russell. Arrieta could be appealing to someone. As for teh Angels they have almost no path to contention so I can't see them wanting Arrieta at all.

Yeah, that deal netted them. Look at that deal

1. It was widely blasted at the time it was made (ala the Braves/Diamondbacks trade)
2. You'd have a hard time arguing Jeff Z and Arrieta are that different right now
3. The A's were in a position to know that they were most likely going to the playoffs (so they're more likely to trade future perfromance to win today) where any team trading for Arrieta has the unknown risk of being bad/injured next year so you've traded future assets for a meaningless season
4. The best players in that deal for the Cubs were not MLB ready players
5. The Cubs got back position players, not pitchers
6. The A's knew that they could flip Jeff Z again for 80% of the value that they traded

The trade value of MLB ready, cost controlled TOR arms is crazy high. Jake Arrieta and Soler is a good package but it's not competitive in terms of winning a bidding war for a team deciding it's trading one of those assets. You would have to take some assumption of risk in the deal to get back a future TOR arm (i.e trading Jake for Garrett Richards or Matt Harvey) for that package OR you'd have to add your valuable minor league assets (Happ, Eloy) to get a deal done.

 

[DanTown]

That's the crux of it right there. Winning the WS would allow Theo and company to do some things that they probably couldn't do if they fall short.

They're completely independent events. Winning the 2016 WS has no bearing on whether or not trading Jake Arrieta makes you more likely to win a future WS.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

They're completely independent events. Winning the 2016 WS has no bearing on whether or not trading Jake Arrieta makes you more likely to win a future WS.

I disagree with you there. They will need 2, maybe 3 starters for 2018 depending on if you think Montgomery is a viable option. I do not see any way they sign Arrieta. He may not be in the stupid money class after this year but if he bounces back some next year someone will probably give him his 6 years at maybe $25-$28 mil per because there's always a team that will. I don't see that there is anyway he signs in Chicago. They've been after a cost controlled starter for more than two years and I believe they'll find one eventually. If they win the WS it would be easier to trade Jake because the expectations for 2017 won't be quite as high and they can take a risk. Just my take.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Yeah, that deal netted them. Look at that deal

1. It was widely blasted at the time it was made (ala the Braves/Diamondbacks trade)
2. You'd have a hard time arguing Jeff Z and Arrieta are that different right now
3. The A's were in a position to know that they were most likely going to the playoffs (so they're more likely to trade future perfromance to win today) where any team trading for Arrieta has the unknown risk of being bad/injured next year so you've traded future assets for a meaningless season
4. The best players in that deal for the Cubs were not MLB ready players
5. The Cubs got back position players, not pitchers
6. The A's knew that they could flip Jeff Z again for 80% of the value that they traded

The trade value of MLB ready, cost controlled TOR arms is crazy high. Jake Arrieta and Soler is a good package but it's not competitive in terms of winning a bidding war for a team deciding it's trading one of those assets. You would have to take some assumption of risk in the deal to get back a future TOR arm (i.e trading Jake for Garrett Richards or Matt Harvey) for that package OR you'd have to add your valuable minor league assets (Happ, Eloy) to get a deal done.

My point is that there is always a team that makes a questionable move regardless of past results. Also with the injuries to young pitchers all over the league I think there is a line of thinking that might switch the conversation to bats as Theo had predicted. Maybe not but I think it's possible.

 

[DanTown]

My point is that there is always a team that makes a questionable move regardless of past results. Also with the injuries to young pitchers all over the league I think there is a line of thinking that might switch the conversation to bats as Theo had predicted. Maybe not but I think it's possible.

You're not talking about adding future TOR (like say the Pomeranz/Espizona deal), you're talking about acquiring CURRENT TOR arms via trade. Like essentially Jake would have to go out in a RA Dickey type trade (Mets got back Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard) where you get a future TOR arm but it's not current. THAT type of deal makes sense for the team acquiring Arrieta and for the Cubs way more so than trading Arrieta for a current arm in a rotation would make sense.

Again, the A's had a ton of reasons to make that trade that does not exist if the Cubs move Arrieta. You can say "bad teams make bad moves" but that's not a legitimate argument.

 

[DanTown]

I think a good example of Arrieta's value would be a deal with the Astros surrounding say David Paulino. Paulino is young (23 next year) and just had a fantastic year in AA/AAA and even got a cup of coffee but he's most likely not ready to be a top 15 pitcher in baseball that say Arrieta potentially is. So if the Cubs did some deal which was say Arrieta + Underwood for Sipp + Paulino, I could see the argument for the Astros. They need a SP who is MLB ready and Arrieta is that while Underwood gives them a guy who isn't Paulino but isn't a terrible prospect. Cubs also save some money for the Astros by taking on the 2/12 left for Sipp, who the Cubs could hope comes back to being a good lefty out of the bullpen.

 

[Diehardfan]

Garrett Richards managed to side step Tommy John surgery but just the fact that he's got a wonky elbow should make him a bit more affordable...at a risk.

 

[CSF77]

If I am the Cubs, I am thinking long and hard of packaging Arrieta and Soler for a young arm. I still think Soler bat will be fine, but his limited D and every other ability makes him expandable. I still believe Schwarber will catch one day a week. I also think Heyward and Almora will platoon CF with Heyward getting RF starts as well. Things will start figuring themselves out. Not everyone is going to produce. If they do, then that is one of the best problems to have ever.

-Best trade bait is Schwarber. But they need a 2nd power LH bat more.

-The big issue will be losing Fowler. A note was made about Zo tiring. Well as a lead off you are looking at over 600 AB's per. That becomes very problematic.

-Add to it there is no lead off in the wings like Zo was for Fowler.

-I've thought this stuff over for a while and they should resign Fowler and then use Almora as a 4th OF.

-I agree with Jake and Soler for a TOR with control.

 

[Mr. Cub]

**** you, ESPN! Why are you showing "Catching Hell" right now?

 

[fatbeard]

**** you, ESPN! Why are you showing "Catching Hell" right now?

It's ESPN's fault that FS1 bought the rights to air the NLDS?