Is Burton worth the money?

Joeyo_pr

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I think they overpaid more for Gabriel than Burton. That said, they overpaid for both, but I think Burton has a better chance to live up to the contract
 

greg23

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I dont think there should be any question that gabriel will produce the lowest raw numbers and worst contract value (production vs dollars).

If all goes well and people are health he's probably around the 5th or 6th option in this offense (Howard, arob, burton, miller, Cohen; gabriel) which should translate to 25-35 catches for the year.

However his skill set compliments the roster and should help everyone else produce at similar or higher raw numbers.
 

WindyCity

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When 12-15 of your 33 receptions are on screen passes behind the line of scrimmage, you’ll probably end up with a decent catch rate.

If 50% of your catches are on screens and you have a 14 YPC average you are a damn animal.

Jarvis Landry catches that many short passes and averages 8.8.
 

WindyCity

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Lolwut??? Gabriel is the 30th highest paid WR in the league going into this season. Gabriel makes the same money as his former teammate, #2 WR in Atlanta, Mohamed Sanu. Gabriel got a better deal this year than Marquis Goodwin, the 49ers #1 WR! Goodwin played like an all pro WR with Jimmy Godroppolo.

When Goodwin signed he had done next to nothing. The fact that he signed a 2 year deal and was not a free agent screwed him into taking a below market value 3/20 million dollar extension.

Gabriel signed for what has essentially, and moving forward, has become #3 money.

#2 money is in the 8-10 million dollar range, not 6 million annually, Albert Wilson [8 million], Paul Richardson [8 million], Marquise Lee [8.5 million] all signed for what can be more accuratley defined as #2 money.

If you look at this years WR signings, Taylor Gabriel was the 9th highest paid WR in terms of average salary.

Roughly Speaking Based on the Current Market

#1 14-17 million

#2 8-10 million

#3 5-7 million *I think age and injury dragged Crabtree and Jordy into the top end of this group.
 

WindyCity

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I think they overpaid more for Gabriel than Burton. That said, they overpaid for both, but I think Burton has a better chance to live up to the contract

Based on production and where the market was Burton is the biggest financial risk based on what he has done and what others got paid this season.
 

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I dont think there should be any question that gabriel will produce the lowest raw numbers and worst contract value (production vs dollars).

If all goes well and people are health he's probably around the 5th or 6th option in this offense (Howard, arob, burton, miller, Cohen; gabriel) which should translate to 25-35 catches for the year.

I would question all of that. Bear Nation may not want to hear it, but Gabriel will have a better season than Anthony Miller.

#bookit
 

WindyCity

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Using overall contract ranking is pointless as most top guys at the position are on long term extensions that were negotiated years ago. For example Julio Jones makes 14 million a season, which at the time was top money, but now he is underpaid as elite WRs are making 17 million and lower level #1 types make what he makes simply because of timing.

Using non-elite [market setters] players that sign extensions before they hit the open market is also pointless. They are not being impacted by the free market and are taking less money for more security rather that playing out their shit deal. Marquise Goodwin could have easily gotten the 8.5 million that Marquise Lee got, but he was not a free agent and did not have any leverage in the negotiation with the 49ers.

Really with how often the NFL salary cap goes up you can only use the current year to determine how much someone was overpaid/underpaid.
 

WindyCity

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When speed is your only asset and you get so few thrown your way that defenses forget you're on the field it adds up to gimmick role player IMO.

Even if you think he is only a gimmick role player, he is being paid fairly accurately for someone who has his skill set and his specific gimmick.
 

Noonthirtyjoe

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I would question all of that. Bear Nation may not want to hear it, but Gabriel will have a better season than Anthony Miller.

#bookit

I would take that bet all day long. Miller will double Gabreil in yards and receptions. Gab is a one trick pony that will average 2 to 3 catches a game. He will be useful at opening up other players more then being useful as a WR himself. His job will be to pull defenders deep thus opening up the underneath game for others.
 

Noonthirtyjoe

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Even if you think he is only a gimmick role player, he is being paid fairly accurately for someone who has his skill set and his specific gimmick.

Ya I guess, everything is expensive nowadays. I'm not sold on the guy but I will root for him anyway. I know Nagy will get good use of him in ways that are outside of making catches alone. He does give the offense a different dimension that a innovative coach can use to our advantage. Just imagine how useless the guy would be with Foxy still here. I just like most everyone else needs to adjust my thinking with this modern system coming. As you know this will be different then anything us fans are used to seeing in Chitown.
 

gilder121

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I would take that bet all day long. Miller will double Gabreil in yards and receptions. Gab is a one trick pony that will average 2 to 3 catches a game. He will be useful at opening up other players more then being useful as a WR himself. His job will be to pull defenders deep thus opening up the underneath game for others.

I hope so. Just for reference, doubling your low end of 2/game for Gabriel would put Miller at 64 catches, which is more than any rookie WR in 2017. Two reached that mark in 2016. One in 2015. Certainly not impossible, but just realize that it's a pretty high bar for recent rookies.
 

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I hope so. Just for reference, doubling your low end of 2/game for Gabriel would put Miller at 64 catches, which is more than any rookie WR in 2017. Two reached that mark in 2016. One in 2015. Certainly not impossible, but just realize that it's a pretty high bar for recent rookies.

^^^^ This ^^^^

Rookie receiver that will see most of his reps in the slot does not add up to 64 catches without another season of three or four other receivers on IR.
 

Hawkeye OG

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I would question all of that. Bear Nation may not want to hear it, but Gabriel will have a better season than Anthony Miller.

#bookit

I, respectfully, disagree with this. I just have a gut feeling that Gabriel will be underwhelming. He's going to have some boom weeks and a lot of bust weeks. I think Miller's skillset paired with the vaunted Naggy offense will have a much better rapport with Bitchell and his skillset. JMHO, IMO.
 

bearmick

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Not sold on vets like Gabriel and Burton that have shown they can produce in the NFL, but all in on a rookie receiver taken in the second round of a weak draft class.

Miller looks like a stud. Honestly given the choice of having to release him or Gabriel tomorrow, would anyone keep Gabriel?
 

WindyCity

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Ya I guess, everything is expensive nowadays. I'm not sold on the guy but I will root for him anyway. I know Nagy will get good use of him in ways that are outside of making catches alone. He does give the offense a different dimension that a innovative coach can use to our advantage. Just imagine how useless the guy would be with Foxy still here. I just like most everyone else needs to adjust my thinking with this modern system coming. As you know this will be different then anything us fans are used to seeing in Chitown.

Speed seems to be the most expensive of the solo skill sets, or at least elite speed.

Paul Richardson making 8/season seems crazy, but we have seen what teams do when you lack someone with elite speed in the WR core. Everyone sitting at 10 yards and crowding the underneath zones.
 

WindyCity

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Miller looks like a stud. Honestly given the choice of having to release him or Gabriel tomorrow, would anyone keep Gabriel?

No, he has better size and a more diverse skill set.

That being said Gabriel needs to catch 30-40 passes to be more than worth it. The threat of Gabriel is worth half of his salary.
 

Penny Traitor

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I, respectfully, disagree with this. I just have a gut feeling that Gabriel will be underwhelming. He's going to have some boom weeks and a lot of bust weeks. I think Miller's skillset paired with the vaunted Naggy offense will have a much better rapport with Bitchell and his skillset. JMHO, IMO.
Well, I respectively wish you fall into a pit of thorn covered snakes for having such audacity.

Bear Nation just needs to learn that I am infallible and to treat every one of my posts as though it was written by the Football Gods themselves.
 

WindyCity

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^^^^ This ^^^^

Rookie receiver that will see most of his reps in the slot does not add up to 64 catches without another season of three or four other receivers on IR.

The #3 target in this offense has historically had around 60 catches. It will depend on who between Gabriel and Miller is the 2nd most targeted player. My guess is that Miller will be and may get closer to 80 targets with 50 something catches.

We also have a QB who really used the slot at UNC and last season.
 

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