IST: Chicago Cubs (25-35) at Pittsburgh Pirates (29-33) (June 9-June 12)

[zack54attack]

Rizzo!

 

[nwfisch]

If you're in the hunt for a championship and someone like Bryant is what you need to go over the top, fine. But, we're clearly not in that situation.

FWIW I don't think Bryant is ready this year anyways, but the principle remains the same.

 

[zack54attack]

And Castro adds another run.

 

[chibears55]

Here what I think about Super2 garbage,,,

If a player is that good, he going to be extended beyond that point like castro and rizzo were anyways, so worrying about super 2 dates on a player tearing up the minors is pointless...

If such player dont play up to hype, your only gonna end up paying what you feel he worth in ARB if he that bad..which mean they prob. end up signing to some agreement before it gets thst far..

So to me, super 2 deadline are for players on the fence that may be good enough to get paid but teams wanna get that extra year to be sure before they extend..


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[chibears55]

Good to see rizzo turning on balls, hopefully he gets that AVG back up and keeps it there..



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[SilenceS]

Rizzo with a gift double by Polanco. I thought that should of been an error but I will take it! 2 run lead turns into a 4 run lead with the Castro RBI single.

 

[zack54attack]

Rizzo slash line update...

.284/.406/.514/.920

 

[beckdawg]

If a player is that good, he going to be extended beyond that point like castro and rizzo were anyways, so worrying about super 2 dates on a player tearing up the minors is pointless...

When you go to extend players it's based on service time. If you are on pace for super 2 then you're paying substantially more for one of the years. It's not a case where you can say well the guy is good and we can just avoid that by signing him long term. You pay for it either way if they already have the service time. The only way this isn't the case if you do something like the Astros did with Singleton by signing him before he plays. However, players generally wont do this and in fact many are criticizing Singleton for not betting on himself.

People can say well the extra arbitration year is what maybe $5-10 mil more? In the case of the cubs this year, that's Hammel and Bonifacio. Like I said, if you're doing it one time because the player is the difference between a championship and not fine. But, if you start hitting it with multiple players then your ability to add other players with them is severely limited.

 

[chibears55]

FWIW I don't think Bryant is ready this year anyways, but the principle remains the same.

Bryant is staying in AA until the cubs start trading players..
at which point he will be permoted to AAA to replace the ones from there that were brought up or moved, or they just go for it and bring him up to see if he can handle it now in the final 2 + months..

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[X]

Fisch needs to get laid. Less time straight trolling is a good thing. Mute point. lel. gtfo.

 

[beckdawg]

Bryant is staying in AA until the cubs start trading players..
at which point he will be permoted to AAA to replace the ones from there that were brought up or moved, or they just go for it and bring him up to see if he can handle it now in the final 2 + months..

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I've said it before but I don't think that's right. I think they are waiting until some point likely based on his service time clock and they then will just have him skip AAA. Villanueva isn't ready for the majors yet so they aren't going to call him up. They are going to want Bryant to play at 3B as long as he can. Given that Olt is playing like shit there, the open spot at a higher level of competition is 3B at the MLB level. If they do what you're suggesting he gets what a month maybe 2 at AAA? Then what? You obviously want him hitting as much as possible so then you're likely calling him up in September anyways.

I think they are just going to leave him in AA for the next month or two and then call him up to the majors for the remainder of the season. Where he starts in 2015 will be determined by how he plays in the majors as well as spring training. If he hits then obviously he's got a decent shot to break camp next season with the team. If he doesn't then you have a decision to make likely in spring training next year.

The problem with calling him up to AAA is then you're likely screwing with Villanueva's development. And while I get he's not a Bryant level prospect, he's not a scrub either. If Bryant needed AAA that's one thing. However, the only areas I see as needing improvement at AA is his defense at 3B which you don't need AAA for and his k-rate. However, his k-rate as he's settled into AA is actually dropping below 25%. Other than those two areas there's not much more you could want from him. If it continues to improve down to say the 20% rate he likely has the tools to be MLB ready.

 

[chibears55]

When you go to extend players it's based on service time. If you are on pace for super 2 then you're paying substantially more for one of the years. It's not a case where you can say well the guy is good and we can just avoid that by signing him long term. You pay for it either way if they already have the service time. The only way this isn't the case if you do something like the Astros did with Singleton by signing him before he plays. However, players generally wont do this and in fact many are criticizing Singleton for not betting on himself.

People can say well the extra arbitration year is what maybe $5-10 mil more? In the case of the cubs this year, that's Hammel and Bonifacio. Like I said, if you're doing it one time because the player is the difference between a championship and not fine. But, if you start hitting it with multiple players then your ability to add other players with them is severely limited.

like I said, if he that good a player, their going to come to an agreement which in most cases is team friendly money wise and giving the player an extra yr or two past original FA date..

I get what your saying about adding a player if he helps, but I think in the cubs case their still trying to build a foundation and realistically their looking to add 4-5 position players to the core of Castillo Rizzo and Castro..
So them deciding to bring up Bryant, Baez, and maybe Alcantara at some point this year will basically be to get that ball rolling by giving them that experience now and show their not overly concerned about the cost of extending later if they earned it..

one other thing and not being an ass saying this but there no salary cap in baseball so if in a couple years the team is good and there a player or players available that could help, I dont see them being severely limited in bringing in such player(s)..

I think some of you need to stop thinking that what we seen with payroll the last couple yrs is going to be the norm...





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[chibears55]

Cubs win... good hitting and pitching
Like what I see out of Neal Ramirez, looking more and more like a solid closer..


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[theberserkfury]

Rizzo's looking real good too... not sure how out of date these numbers are, but it looks like he's clearly in the top 20 for OPS in the league...

 

[zack54attack]

Rizzo's looking real good too... not sure how out of date these numbers are, but it looks like he's clearly in the top 20 for OPS in the league...

.284/.406/.514/.920

 

[theberserkfury]

.284/.406/.514/.920

Yeah, that'd put him at 16 right now, but I'm not sure how those other guys have shifted/will shift after today.

 

[beckdawg]

one other thing and not being an ass saying this but there no salary cap in baseball so if in a couple years the team is good and there a player or players available that could help, I dont see them being severely limited in bringing in such player(s)..

True but that isn't exactly the determining factor. There is a salary cap in the NFL and yet some teams don't spend all their money. So, while there may not be a cap on what they can spend, there is a limit on what teams will spend and owners determine that as we've obviously seen. To have that line of thought requires faith in ownership which I rarely have in any sport and this particular ownership group has yet to earn. Until we see otherwise, I'm going to continue to believe they will be operating on a similar budget to the Cardinals. And the cardinals in particular have been a team that hasn't let players reach super 2 status even when they were competing. Tavaraes likely could have helped them during last season but they held him back.

Now I realize after saying this that may seem at odds with what I'm saying about him being called up in a couple of months. But, in reality the way service timers work waiting an extra month can totally avoid super two status even if he breaks camp with them. If he doesn't it's possible he might not even reach 2 years in service time by the end of 2016. For example, if they hold him back in AAA for say a month and a half next season because he struggled, a partial season this year and next plus a full 2016 wouldn't get them there.

Also, there's the matter of how much difference a month or two more of a player will make. That's obviously a very difficult thing to measure. I know many don't like the concept of WAR but given this was essentially what it was developed for I think it's a good usage. Thus far this season Rizzo been worth about 2 WAR. That is to say he's two wins better than a 4A player. Given that's what Olt has been, had they called Bryant up and played at a Rizzo level you would expect to have won roughly 2 more games over slightly more than a third of a season. So, when you talk about elevating players prior to the super 2 cut off you need to factor that in. Additionally you have to factor in what level player you are replacing. Most teams that 2 wins will actually make a difference generally don't have many 0 WAR players for a prospect to supplant.

That's why it's difficult for me to get behind the idea of pre-super 2 call up players. The only situation I can think of where it would make the difference is if you have an extremely tight race for a division and you have 1-2 guys go down for lengthy periods of time but they will be back for the playoffs. In other words, a case where you already have a competitive team where injuries put you in a bind in the short term and you need someone to carry you through that.

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs win... good hitting and pitching
Like what I see out of Neal Ramirez, looking more and more like a solid closer..


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I'd like them to give him a short at starting next year or after they deal Hammel. He has the pitches for it. His biggest issue has just been he walks people too much. However, thus far in relief he's at a pretty good 2.40 bb/9. He's a guy I liked a lot from a numbers standpoint prior to the season in the prospect thread I did.

 

[Captain Obvious]

They've done nothing for success this year and frankly the dragging of heels on Shark one way or another isn't doing anything to sustain success.


Bryant probably isn't ready now, so the point is mute.

That said, if the biggest worry for the parent club is whether or not the #1 pick from 2013 is playing AA or AAA ball is sad in of itself.

Highest OPS in AA and he's not ready why? He's absolutely owning that league.

1) super two is dumb to worry about
2) nice strawman you built there

Why is it dumb to worry about? If you don't have to spend the extra money, why do it? If you're going to do it, at least make it worth while. How does bringing Bryant up pre-Super 2 status benefit the team? It doesn't. Sure, we might get a few more wins this year. So what? We're not going to the playoffs. It doesn't benefit us.

Exactly. For a team in the third largest market in baseball, financial details about prospects shouldn't matter at all.

If Bryant is ready (which he isn't) he should be up in Wrigley.

Baez might be, and frankly he shouldn't be held back either.

Play the best 25 players in the organization right now, finances shouldn't matter at all in that aspect.

Again, why spend money if you don't have to? This apple costs $1, but here, let me pay you $2. It just doesn't make sense.

 

[nwfisch]

:enough:

If you couldn't follow along that I was implying Bryant isn't ready for the MLB level, I give up.

And the fact you defend ownership being cheap instead of building the best product is sad for a fan.