IST: Cubs@Reds

[DB012031]

I just took Tony's numbers from when he signed that deal and added some to where it would basically be the same.

That is not who Javy Baez is. He is at a measly 5, so getting to 10/11 next year, 16-18 the year after in his final two years of arbitration and you are giving him 20-25 for the next few years.

We have seen Mike Trout and Arrenado not want to deal with free agency the way things are going over the past two off seasons. I really dont see Rizzo getting a 300 million deal, or Bryant, so will Javy become that money whore where it changes him from who he is?

He wants his few acre stray dog park in Puerto Rico and to take care of his family. I am pretty sure he knows it does not take 300 million to be happy. 300 million means your family, your kids family and your grandkids family dont need to work a day in their lives. The money whores in todays game are doing it for themself.

I love Javy and believe he is really the heart and soul of this team. That being said, he is not sniffing $300M...He is going to be 27 in December and has 2 years of arbitration remaining (2020 and 2021 season). Is he worth $30M a year, yes I believe he is considering his pure baseball talent AND what he means to the Cubs. But, the Cubs, and the rest of baseball, are starting to wise up to these $300M+/10 year deals. Outside of A-Rod's original deal, these have never worked out for any team (Looking at you Albert Pujols and soon to be Bryce Harper). Cubs have all the advantage here with those Arb years that would take Javy until he is 29 before hitting FA.

Javy is grossly underpaid based on his last 2+ years of production. I think something more reasonable is in the area of 5-7 years/$25M a year (first 5 guaranteed, last 2 are option years). This way Javy gets his money, and the Cubs get him through his prime and then can see where he his at age 33 (depending upon who owns the last 2 option years, player or team)

Now the one that is really in an awkward position is KB. He is already 27 and also has 2 years of ARB remaining. No one in their right mind is giving him $300M+ nor a long term contract since he will be 30 when he is in his FA year. Love it or hate it, was a beautiful move by the Cubs to wait those extra 2 weeks to call him up to get that extra year. If Kris is Smart, he takes a similar deal like I mentioned above because NO ONE is going to pay a 30 year old 3rd basemen $300M plus.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Remember when you guys collectively lost your goddamn minds before the trade deadline had even passed?

Man...good times.

What a freakin implosion of the brain trust in here. Dear God, I thought higher of you all. A couple guys will settle down, a couple new guys...

Jesus this team is good, its got top end and its got depth now. The Cardinals lack the pitching and the Brewers lack the hitting to get it done. Cake walk into the playoffs.

 

[DB012031]

Remember when you guys collectively lost your goddamn minds before the trade deadline had even passed?

Man...good times.

What a freakin implosion of the brain trust in here. Dear God, I thought higher of you all. A couple guys will settle down, a couple new guys...

Jesus this team is good, its got top end and its got depth now. The Cardinals lack the pitching and the Brewers lack the hitting to get it done. Cake walk into the playoffs.

Getting Castellanos (and thus moving J-Hey to lead-off) has completely changed this team for the better. It forced Schwarbs into a more natural position of #6 (where he has been great since the move) and forced Happ to #7, again a great move. Top to bottom, once Wilson is back, this team, offensively, can go toe to toe with anyone. Starting Pitching has been solid (outside of the egg laid by Lester and Hammels last night). Wick and Ryan have shown something in the pen and keep in mind Kimbrel is still getting into "shape". Chatwood has been solid in his long reliever role and if Maddon will just stop trying to be the smartest man in the room, all the time, this team really does have a chance.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Unless somebody stepped up and did an amazing job, I would just go

1. Rizzo 2. Bryant 3. Baez 4. Schwarber 5. Contreras/Murphy 6. Happ/Constellanos/Bote 7. Contreras/Murphy 8. pitcher 9. Heyward

or something...

Rizzo is clearly the best lead-off man. It protects Bryant. It puts Schwarber in base runner situations where his power will pay-off. Maybe Murphy cleans up behind him with .300+ average to create problems.

The value of Rizzo later to me doesn't off-set a line-up opportunity to have your two best hitter get the most at bats and clearly Baez can handle a 3 role. You put standard power supply in that 4th hole...and without contreras or with contreras...

its the best order to have Rizzo/Bryant/Baez go 1,2,3...

which is the most important thing they could do, and when you have a 1,2,3 like that I for one am a firm believer in pitcher 8th and if you have a Heyward to put 9 hole..perfect. Heyward is a perfect 9 for national league and gives tons of value there.

I thought Maddon wa a smart guy but inability to get to this with these factors is a big smart guy failure to me.

 

[CSF77]

Morrow is done. He will never pitch for the Cubs again.

He is a option. That is all.

 

[CSF77]

How does Bryant seem open to an extension when he reportedly turned down a $300M deal at the end of 2017?

After Manny and Brice signed he changed hit tune as he has watched players with opts attached get passed by.

Trout signing a mega extension like that could change the dynamic.

That said I believe Bryant is in the same tier as Manny and Brice. Age should limit his earnings to 8 years because he went to college.

 

[anotheridiot]

Unless somebody stepped up and did an amazing job, I would just go

1. Rizzo 2. Bryant 3. Baez 4. Schwarber 5. Contreras/Murphy 6. Happ/Constellanos/Bote 7. Contreras/Murphy 8. pitcher 9. Heyward

or something...

Rizzo is clearly the best lead-off man. It protects Bryant. It puts Schwarber in base runner situations where his power will pay-off. Maybe Murphy cleans up behind him with .300+ average to create problems.

The value of Rizzo later to me doesn't off-set a line-up opportunity to have your two best hitter get the most at bats and clearly Baez can handle a 3 role. You put standard power supply in that 4th hole...and without contreras or with contreras...

its the best order to have Rizzo/Bryant/Baez go 1,2,3...

which is the most important thing they could do, and when you have a 1,2,3 like that I for one am a firm believer in pitcher 8th and if you have a Heyward to put 9 hole..perfect. Heyward is a perfect 9 for national league and gives tons of value there.

I thought Maddon wa a smart guy but inability to get to this with these factors is a big smart guy failure to me.

You know what I am getting sick of? Watching Javy lace a ball to the wall that he could probably turn into a triple, but he cant because Rizzo can barely get from first to third.

That is my problem with Rizzo, but Joe wont drop him to fifth.

This is my biggest reason for Javy leading off. Nobody in front of him on the bases, other than the rare possibility that the pitcher gets a hit instead of making the last out.

I gave up on Maddon being a smart guy a while ago. When he had Garcia leading off three games in a row after nothing the first game and nothing the second game, while, at the same time dropping Javy to fifth and take away his effectiveness on the bases while creating havoc lost me forever.

 

[DanTown]

I don’t need Happ or for that matter Schwarber to be elite hitters like maybe you thought when they were rocketing through the minors but if they can just be in that mid .250 / .350 - .370 / +.500 with passable defense then they can be contributor at 7/8.

 

[anotheridiot]

After Manny and Brice signed he changed hit tune as he has watched players with opts attached get passed by.

Trout signing a mega extension like that could change the dynamic.

That said I believe Bryant is in the same tier as Manny and Brice. Age should limit his earnings to 8 years because he went to college.

I dont think the Trout contrad did anything because there is no real competition for him as far as being the best in the game. The Arrenado deal of 8/260 was the contract that should set the dynamic. If players want to hold out and wait til March to get signed for their 300 million, I am sure some will do it. But there were quite a few would be free agents that decided to get their deals done this off season.

Harper was just plain stupid. Take the 10-300 and get some 40 million dollar deal when you are 37 when there will be so many players making 30 and you are stuck basically getting 10 million a year for the final 3 years.

You put Javy on the open market and who knows what kind of buzz there will be. No doubt some teams wont touch him because he has too much fun, can hit a ball that bounces off the wall, but look terrible other times. Half the teams wont want that as a 30 million dollar guy, and I just dont think Javy wants that pressure either.

 

[Raskolnikov]

If you could get Bryant at 8/270, and Baez at 7/225...I think it would be about fair. Not sure if that is possible but I think that is the minimum it will take.

 

[TL1961]

I love Javy and believe he is really the heart and soul of this team. That being said, he is not sniffing $300M...He is going to be 27 in December and has 2 years of arbitration remaining (2020 and 2021 season). Is he worth $30M a year, yes I believe he is considering his pure baseball talent AND what he means to the Cubs. But, the Cubs, and the rest of baseball, are starting to wise up to these $300M+/10 year deals. Outside of A-Rod's original deal, these have never worked out for any team (Looking at you Albert Pujols and soon to be Bryce Harper). Cubs have all the advantage here with those Arb years that would take Javy until he is 29 before hitting FA.

Javy is grossly underpaid based on his last 2+ years of production. I think something more reasonable is in the area of 5-7 years/$25M a year (first 5 guaranteed, last 2 are option years). This way Javy gets his money, and the Cubs get him through his prime and then can see where he his at age 33 (depending upon who owns the last 2 option years, player or team)

Now the one that is really in an awkward position is KB. He is already 27 and also has 2 years of ARB remaining. No one in their right mind is giving him $300M+ nor a long term contract since he will be 30 when he is in his FA year. Love it or hate it, was a beautiful move by the Cubs to wait those extra 2 weeks to call him up to get that extra year. If Kris is Smart, he takes a similar deal like I mentioned above because NO ONE is going to pay a 30 year old 3rd basemen $300M plus.

And yet, Bryant has been better than Javy.

 

[CSF77]

If you could get Bryant at 8/270, and Baez at 7/225...I think it would be about fair. Not sure if that is possible but I think that is the minimum it will take.

A fair offer would be 8/240 for Bryant. The Cubs have 2 years of control remaining and I'm guessing that he would get 16M and 18M via arb for those two years. Then he would get slapped with a QO which drives down his leverage. Bryant will be 29 when he hits F/A so 8/240 should be his market value for a 3B that most likely ends up on 1B 1/2 way through his deal.

Theo comes in and buys out his 2 years in a 10 year 275M it would be a strong offer.

Javy is a year younger 2 years of control. Will be 28 when he hits F/A and looking like a big payday. He could honestly get 10/300M

 

[CSF77]

And yet, Bryant has been better than Javy.

Total package no. If you just look at wRC+ yes. But Baez plays a more D demanding position and as he ages he can fall back to 3B or 2B while having the bat to support it. Bryant will age into 1B or DH.

So when you are looking at a term deal you really have to look at the future sense more so than the present sense.

 

[TL1961]

Total package no. If you just look at wRC+ yes. But Baez plays a more D demanding position and as he ages he can fall back to 3B or 2B while having the bat to support it. Bryant will age into 1B or DH.

So when you are looking at a term deal you really have to look at the future sense more so than the present sense.

Well, if you give Bryant a 15 year contract then, yes, he may be at 1B by the end of it.
But he won’t need to be for a decade at least.

People here seem to worry about the future a lot more than they should.

 

[CSF77]

Well, if you give Bryant a 15 year contract then, yes, he may be at 1B by the end of it.
But he won’t need to be for a decade at least.

People here seem to worry about the future a lot more than they should.

You are a fool to think that he will be on 3B after 36.

3B DRS:
15 3
16 4
17 1
18 -2
19 1

That is base avg in his prime. He will lose a step in the next 5 years and that makes him a sub avg 3B.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

You are a fool to think that he will be on 3B after 36.

3B DRS:
15 3
16 4
17 1
18 -2
19 1

That is base avg in his prime. He will lose a step in the next 5 years and that makes him a sub avg 3B.

How does losing a step move you from third to first? Speed doesn’t matter at either spot. Is there a reason you need a faster player at third than first? Losing a step moves you from MI to the corners but idk about 3B to 1B

 

[SilentLurker]

Holy moly! This Costy guy is on fire!

 

[TL1961]

You are a fool to think that he will be on 3B after 36.

3B DRS:
15 3
16 4
17 1
18 -2
19 1

That is base avg in his prime. He will lose a step in the next 5 years and that makes him a sub avg 3B.

You're worried in 2019 what position Kris Bryant will play at age 38, and you call me a fool?

You seriously think waaayyy too much. Relax and just enjoy some baseball.

 

[TL1961]

Why on earth would you throw that guy a strike?

 

[TL1961]

Holy moly! This Costy guy is on fire!

Costy? Really?

Good lord.

His name is "Coach".