IST: Cubs vs. Marlins

[brett05]

Dont get nuts. After their 25-6 start the Cubs are barely over .500 Trend is your friend over a long season

Omelet,
Serious question. If the Cubs do win it this year will you be able to enjoy it?

 

[Omeletpants]

Omelet,
Serious question. If the Cubs do win it this year will you be able to enjoy it?

I hope so. I do have micromanagement tendencies. After so many years in business I do have a tendency to get caught up in the details

 

[TC in Mississippi]

 

[beckdawg]

Now that brings up an interesting study for our resident numbers savant to address...Beckdawg. Beckdawg, How has the Cubs faired against the top 20 WAR pitchers of playoff teams and how did those teams perform?

I'll take a look at that later and maybe make a separate post for you. I might just do top 20 fWAR pitchers overall though because I imagine the sample size for just playoff teams would be low. Gut instinct though.... I'm guessing the numbers will look misleadingly bad. Good pitchers are good pitchers because they aren't in the habit of throwing bad games. So, I'm willing to bet that the cubs have worse than average numbers against good pitching but then so does everyone else which is kinda why I assume it will be misleading.

At least in the regular season, more teams fail not because they lack quality #1/2 pitchers but because they have horrid #3-5 pitching. I made this comment before the season with regard to the cubs starting pitching but they really do have the least variance #1-5. Hammel is clearly their worst starter but he has a 3.07 ERA and has been worth 1.3 fWAR which makes him the 64th best pitcher in the majors based on that. Lackey and Lester are #38 and #40. Hendricks is #19 and Arrieta is #9. And if you prefer RA9-WAR(runs against rather than using FIP), the cubs fair even better. #8 is Arrieta, #9 is Hendricks, #17 is Lester, #24 is Hammel and Lackey is #35. It's kind of interesting in that regard because what you want out of starting pitching in the regular season to some extent differs from the playoffs.

One thing that's kind of been overlooked by fans is just how good the overall team defense of the cubs is. In terms of overall team stats, the cubs are #1 in DRS at +50. The Astros(#2 team) has +42. In UZR/150, cubs are also #1 at 8.8. #2 teams is again the Astros at 8.2. That likely plays a lot into the strength of the starting staff. Last year the mostly same team was #11 in DRS and #4 in UZR/150.

So, if we're talking playoffs(PLAYOFF!?) I think that the way the cubs are constructed makes the need to hit less important. They clearly have a strong starting 4 for the playoffs. After the deadline they probably have the deepest bullpen in baseball and possibly the best overall though that's sort of an opinion thing. And to top off matters, they have the best defense in the league. The Sunday night game is a good example of how this team can perform in the playoffs even against a dominant starter. They don't have to smash the starter but if they can make him work and drive up his pitch count they can wreak havoc on a teams middle innings bullpen. And their starters/defense/bullpen should do enough to keep games close if they aren't hitting and if they are it makes coming back against the cubs extremely challenging. I mean the cubs were 55-1 going into the 9th with lead, 53-1 going into 8th, 53-5 going into the 7th BEFORE they got Chapman and Smith.

 

[DanTown]

Dont get nuts. After their 25-6 start the Cubs are barely over .500 Trend is your friend over a long season

If you took the Cubs start and just had them win games at the pace they've played the last 75 games (40-35) they'd still be leading the division.

Cubs ebb/flows
25-6
4-8
18-6
5-15
13-6

Essentially the Cubs were the worst team in baseball for three+ weeks. That's the entirety of their struggle this year. Other than that, very good (though not 25-6 good). You need to evaluate how you judge something if you're giving all the weight of their struggles to one 20 game stretch.

 

[fatbeard]

If you took the Cubs start and just had them win games at the pace they've played the last 75 games (40-35) they'd still be leading the division.

Cubs ebb/flows
25-6
4-8
18-6
5-15
13-6

Essentially the Cubs were the worst team in baseball for three+ weeks. That's the entirety of their struggle this year. Other than that, very good (though not 25-6 good). You need to evaluate how you judge something if you're giving all the weight of their struggles to one 20 game stretch.

Don't spoil his cherry-picking with your analysis.

 

[chibears55]

Strop got unlucky. A broken bat hit. MIF not communicating and a good throw turns into an error. Another DP ball hits off him and goes into RF. That isn't on Strop.

Where do you see me knocking strop? Strop my guy

I said he tried to be cute doing his tiant move and got the ball smashed up his ass..

Marlins did more that inning in 18 pitches then Hammel 80


They showed Hammel lookn upset for being pulled, so I said if he that upset for being pulled wait til he loses the W


I was making funnies with the situations ?



Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If you took the Cubs start and just had them win games at the pace they've played the last 75 games (40-35) they'd still be leading the division.

Cubs ebb/flows
25-6
4-8
18-6
5-15
13-6

Essentially the Cubs were the worst team in baseball for three+ weeks. That's the entirety of their struggle this year. Other than that, very good (though not 25-6 good). You need to evaluate how you judge something if you're giving all the weight of their struggles to one 20 game stretch.

Absolutely. The other thing, if you want look at the big picture, is that the Cubs have had 1 month (July) under .500 and if you go back through 10 years of WS winners you'll find that all of them had a month at or under .500. Sometimes that month was in September.

 

[beckdawg]

So La Stella still has yet to report to Iowa. It will be interesting if this becomes an "issue" later. Bleacher nation covered this well saying this

Lots of folks asking about Tommy La Stella, who was optioned to Iowa on July 29, but still hasn’t appeared in a game there. You will recall that Joe Maddon said La Stella did not take well to news of the option – which came because Chris Coghlan returned from the DL, and the Cubs wanted to be able to keep everyone (so they had to option someone with options left). Players have 72 hours to report when they’ve been optioned down. Seems like typically players report sooner, but, hey, a right is a right. Still, that period has now passed, and La Stella was not with the I-Cubs yesterday. That doesn’t mean he’s truant, though, as it’s possible the Cubs gave him permission to delay his appearance until the Iowa Cubs returned home today. No one really seems to know for sure. My guess is La Stella shows up today, it was never a problem, and this is mostly forgotten. It’s unfortunate that the roster situation dictated that a big league-caliber player had to spend some time in the minors, but that’s the way it is sometimes. It isn’t the first time it’s happened to a player, and it won’t be the last. At the latest, La Stella will be back in September when rosters expand.

 

[chibears55]

I kinda like what they did last year, with Bryant and rizzo batting third or fourth depending on starting pitcher matchup. Heyward just choked away the #2 spot, and even though he is still dangerous, provides no protection if you hit him fourth behind Bryzzo.. But you gotta understand Joes thinking that moving them both up one spot will get them more at bats.

Bryant in 2 hole may give him 1 extra AB in 9 innings, but it gives him less opportunities to drive in runs..
Pitcher batting 9th

2 spot 142 PA. 294 AVG 11 RBI


The offense was clicking better when it was
Bryant Rizzo Zobrist 3 to 5

He needs to go back to that or put Bryant 5 and give him more RBI chances and put Contreras in 2 hole with his OBP, decent speed, and will bring energy at the top

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[chibears55]

So La Stella still has yet to report to Iowa. It will be interesting if this becomes an "issue" later. Bleacher nation covered this well saying this

I just read it not a big deal, they gave him extra time to report
Non issue.....

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[chibears55]

Now that brings up an interesting study for our resident numbers savant to address...Beckdawg. Beckdawg, How has the Cubs faired against the top 20 WAR pitchers of playoff teams and how did those teams perform?

Off top of my head though not playoff teams
they recently beat Sale, Fernandez, and King Felix
All pitchers I'm sure probably rank very high in WAR

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[Parade_Rain]

I hope so. I do have micromanagement tendencies. After so many years in business I do have a tendency to get caught up in the details

After so many years in business you are a grumpy old man.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Where do you see me knocking strop? Strop my guy

I said he tried to be cute doing his tiant move and got the ball smashed up his ass..

Marlins did more that inning in 18 pitches then Hammel 80


They showed Hammel lookn upset for being pulled, so I said if he that upset for being pulled wait til he loses the W


I was making funnies with the situations ?



Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

Hammel looks upset just about every time he is pulled.

 

[SilenceS]

Bryant in 2 hole may give him 1 extra AB in 9 innings, but it gives him less opportunities to drive in runs..
Pitcher batting 9th

2 spot 142 PA. 294 AVG 11 RBI


The offense was clicking better when it was
Bryant Rizzo Zobrist 3 to 5

He needs to go back to that or put Bryant 5 and give him more RBI chances and put Contreras in 2 hole with his OBP, decent speed, and will bring energy at the top

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

Bryant is hitting and getting on base at his highest clip in the 2 hole. His OPS is about the same as it was in the 3 hole. I think a guy getting on at a .408 clip in the 2 hole is doing wonders for our lineup.

 

[Omeletpants]

After so many years in business you are a grumpy old man.

Ok, so what's your point?

 

[Omeletpants]

Silence wins Mod of the Year at the CCS National Mod Convention

 

[CSF77]

Bryant in 2 hole may give him 1 extra AB in 9 innings, but it gives him less opportunities to drive in runs..
Pitcher batting 9th

2 spot 142 PA. 294 AVG 11 RBI


The offense was clicking better when it was
Bryant Rizzo Zobrist 3 to 5

He needs to go back to that or put Bryant 5 and give him more RBI chances and put Contreras in 2 hole with his OBP, decent speed, and will bring energy at the top

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

Doubt they change things until next year

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Silence wins Mod of the Year at the CCS National Mod Convention

Is the National Mod Convention held at someone's mom's basement?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[SilenceS]

Bryant doesnt pick Gordons slapper. Contreras gets completely fooled on a line drive that plates Gordon. Nice start Cubs!