IST: Mets v Cubs

[CSF77]

Don't want to come off as egotistical here but I don't think you really follow the cubs MO if you think that. They are a team that has largely valued FIP or possibly something semi-related to it in evaluating pitching. If you look at the signings of guys like Feldman and Hammel, the year prior to their signing their ERA was bad but they had a much better FIP. Coke presently sits at 8.38 k/9, 2.79 bb/9 a .419 BABIP against and 6.52/3.57 ERA/FIP. Those number suggest someone who's playing better than his ERA shows. On top of that, given the issues with the bullpen, I'm guessing he's been slightly misused pitching in situations where it's not ideal given the over use of other guys. For example, he's thrown 5 innings vs lefties and 4.2 vs righties. Lefties(who you'd ideally be using him against) are BABIPing .500 against him leading to a robust .318/.348/.409 against. When that ultimately levels out closer to that MLB average of .300 BABIP you're likely talking about him being pretty dominant against lefties or at the very least much closer to the .240/.298/.353 he has for career marks.

If anyone is going to go it will likely be Motte first. He's not bringing much to the table. Though, other than Ramirez returning it's not like they have a number of options so really only see Motte as the guy to get the ax unless they get Turner/Wada back and finally decide to sever ties with Jackson.

Cubs team ERA: 4.10 FIP: 3.51

From worst:
Brian Schlitter: 7.39 FIP 9.53 ERA (AAA now)
Jason Motte 4.66 FIP 4.50 ERA (on team)
Zac Rosscup 4.58 FIP 3.38 ERA
(Wood/Hendricks fall here but not talking about SP)
Phil Coke 3.57 FIP 6.52 ERA (Talking FIP I see your point)
Neil Ramirez 3.49 FIP 3.00 ERA (need him back)
Hector Rondon 3.30 FIP 3.21 ERA
Gonzalez German 2.99 FIP 7.50 ERA (Was sent down so that blows up your theory)
Pedro Strop 2.54 FIP 3.68 ERA
Edwin Jackson 2.54 FIP 4.66 ERA (again another one with a inflated ERA....)
James Russell 2.03 FIP 1.69 ERA
Justin Grimm 1.87 FIP 0.00 ERA

If Wada gets promoted and goes to the pen I see him becoming a long man. So a L/R long man combo with Wada/Jackson depending on how the opponent sways line up wise. So one gets bumped then.

Russell and Grimm have done a excellent job after getting back. I would put them into late lead situations with Strop and Rondon to keep their arms fresh.

So the odd man looks to be Motte but he has $$$ tied to his name. Think 5 mil and Coke is at 2.75 mil. Schlitter and Germen are not making much so the choice was easy to demote. Motte and Coke you have to reassign them thus opening them to wavers. And I think they can opt out as a F/A at that point. Not sure on those rules though. So making that choice is a 1 way street. It would be easier to demote Rosscup if they went that direction as they can recall him at any time. Even though he has done fine to this point.

Thinking this rule is coming into effect:

With the player's consent, a player on the MLB 7-day DL may be assigned to a minor league club for rehabilitation purposes for up to five days (or maximum eight days for a pitcher), and a player on the MLB 15-day or 60-day DL may be assigned to a minor league club for rehabilitation purposes for up to 20 days (or maximum 30 days for a pitcher).

A player on a minor league "rehab" assignment continues to accrue MLB service time, and does not count against a minor league club's Active Roster.

A player on a minor league 7-day or 60-day DL may be assigned to Extended Spring Training for rehabilitation purposes prior to the start of the minor league "short season" in June, or to a "short-season" minor league club for rehabilitation purposes for up to 20 days (or maximum 30 days for pitchers) after the conclusion of Extended Spring Training. (If a player on a DL of a minor league club is assigned to a "short season" club for "rehab" purposes, the club to which the player is assigned must be in a league with a lower classification than the player's club). A minor league player on a "rehab" assignment does not count against the Reserve List or Active Roster of the club to which he is assigned. (There is no roster limit at Extended Spring Training).

A maximum of three "rehab" players may be assigned to any one minor league club at the same time, but there is no limit to the number of "rehab" players who may be assigned to Extended Spring Training.

So for a pitcher he has 30 days that he can be on Rehab assignment. Which Wada most likely has surpassed.

 

[CSF77]

Arrieta: 4-3 45 IP (6.42 per GS), ERA: 3.00 FIP: 2.54 K/9: 9.60 BB/9: 2.79
Lester: 3-2 41.2 IP (5.94 per start), ERA: 4.10 FIP: 3.42 K/9: 8.64 BB/9: 2.59
Hammel: 3-1 38.1 IP (6.38 per start), ERA: 3.52 FIP: 3.50 K/9: 8.22 BB/9: 1.17

Lester is closer to Hammel right now than Arrieta. He is on the rise though. Arrieta has just been that good and is emerging as a true league ace right now.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Lester hasn't been great but has left the team in a good position to win his last 4 starts. I think that's about what we can expect for an average Lester start and his ERA will fall back to around 3.5 like it always has. I'd like to see better but there's no reason to expect too much better.

Essentially correct. His 2.80 FIP last year (combined total) was the best of his career. Otherwise it falls between about 3.1 and 3.5 as you say. What still needs to improve is innings per game. That needs to get over 6. Getting better, not there yet. When it does he's the guy you paid for.

 

[CSF77]

ESPN Stats & Information

Rookie Kris Bryant will face Matt Harvey for the first time Wednesday night as the Chicago Cubs host the New York Mets.

We look at some of the key storylines for the game (8 p.m. ET, ESPN/WatchESPN).

Bryant is hopeful of more success against Harvey than some other young power hitters have had:

• Bryce Harper: 0-for-12, six strikeouts

• Giancarlo Stanton: 1-for-9, four strikeouts

• Freddie Freeman: 0-for-6, two strikeouts

Offense continues to be a problem for Mets

Mets' Offense
-----------------2014 2015
HR/FB pct.---8.5 6.4*
Slug pct.----.364 .352*
BA:------------.239 .236
*Bottom 3 in the majors
The Mets have had six consecutive losing seasons, one shy of tying the franchise record (done twice, from 1962 to 1968 and 1977 to 1983).

Last season, the Mets had a .364 slugging percentage, their lowest since 1992, and they were in the bottom four in the majors in that stat as well as batting average and home run/fly ball percentage. This season has been worse.

The Mets' average 3.8 runs this season is third worst in the National League.

Duda seeing shift frequently

Six hitters faced more defensive shifts than Lucas Duda last season, and nobody has seen more shifts than he has this season -- on 108 out of 135 plate appearances.

Last season, on ground balls and short line drives, Duda hit .202 against the shift and .313 without the shift on. This season, it’s .192 and .333.

Cubs’ offense improving, but struggles of late
Cubs' Offense
-----------------------Best since:
OBP---------.325 2009
BB pct.-------9.2 2009
Runs PG------4.3 2010
BA------------.249 2011

The Cubs have faltered lately, going 5-8 in their last 13 games and averaging 3.8 runs per game. In that stretch, shortstop Starlin Castro has a .487 OPS with 16 strikeouts, and Bryant is batting .217 with a 42 percent strikeout rate.

First baseman Anthony Rizzo, with 1.8 wins above replacement, has been the Cubs’ best hitter by far. Next is Bryant (0.8 WAR).

Six players have seen more shifts this season than Rizzo, who is hitting better when shifted than when not.

He’s hitting .276 on ground balls and soft line drives against the shift, and .214 on those same batted balls when no shift is on.

In Bryant’s last 13 games, he is seeing fewer fastballs (57 percent compared with 64 percent in his first 11 games), and he’s missing them 40 percent of the time (18 percent in first 11 games).

 

[Parade_Rain]

The Cubs have faltered lately, going 5-8 in their last 13 games and averaging 3.8 runs per game. In that stretch, shortstop Starlin Castro has a .487 OPS with 16 strikeouts, and Bryant is batting .217 with a 42 percent strikeout rate..

That's not possible. Only a fool would think Bryant would struggle a bit!

 

[beckdawg]

I wish we had better stats for minor leagues because I'm curious to know if the way pitchers are pitching Bryant in the majors is how they approached him in the minors. Logic would say in AAA it was probably the same. Reason I'm curious is I honestly don't think many minor league hitters would have a solid K rate given the crap he's seen in the majors those far. 60.1% of the pitches he's seen have been outside the strike zone according to pitch f/x. As a young hitter, I can't imagine how frustrating that would be. And the stuff he has seen in the zone will be junk like heat under his hands.

From a number perspective, Bryant is a rarity. As of today he has an 18.5% walk rate, a 31.5% K rate, a .420 BABIP, and a .276/.417/.460. When I say rarity... I mean it. Since 1871(yeah that far back), only in 7 seasons has a player had an OBP of over .400 with a K rate over 25% over a full season. 2007 Jack Cust at 32.3% k rate hit .256/.408/.504 with a 20.7% walk rate and a .355 BABIP. 2001 Jim Thome at 17.2%/28.7% bb/k rate, .353 BABIP, .291/.416/.624. 1999 Jim Thome, 20.2%/27.2%, .354, .277/.426/.540. 1998 Jim Thome 16.6%/26.3%, .363, .293/.413/.584. 2000 Jim Edmonds, 16.0%/26.0%, .349, .295/.411/.583. 2006 Ryan Howard, 15.3%/25.7%, .356, .313/.425/.659. And finally you guessed it 2007 Jim Thome 17.7%/25.0%, .316, .275/.410/.563.

So basically the list is Jim Thome and a couple of flukey seasons out of Cust, Edmonds, and Howard. Flukey more in the how. Edmonds had several seasons in the 20-25% k range at over .400 OBP. Cust and Howard just had career years. Interestingly enough because the threshold for qualified players isn't that high this year 3 players from 2015 showed up. Joc Pederson, Bryant(obviously) and Bryce Harper. Harper hasn't been a K magnet until the past year or so. His first two years in the league he was at 20.1% k rate and 18.9%. So, I sort of feel like that might fall off for him and leave him out of this distinction. Pederson though is pretty interesting as well. No one's throwing to him either(38.7% pitches in the zone).

Thome's not a name I've heard connected to Bryant but it strikes me as an interesting comparison. Thome is 6'4 while Bryant is 6'5. Thome is listed at 250 while Bryant is listed at 215 though come on.... that cant stay that low for a guy his size and surprises me it is that low to begin with. So, likely similar sized players at corner IF positions presently anyways. Bryant strikes me as having slightly better wheels as he has 5 triples in 973 professional PAs. Thome had 26 in 10,313 career MLB PAs. That plus he's playing the more athletic 3B as opposed to 1B/DH. But from a hitting stand point, other than the fact Thome was a lefty both have high k/bb rates with great power.

The other rarity with Bryant is that BABIP. You could argue it's sample size and what not but at every level except AAA he was over .400 and even in AAA it was .367 last year. That's CRAZY high. Only 4 players since 1871 have had a career BABIP over .370. They are Tom McCreery, Ty Cobb, Willie Keeler, and Tuck Turner and none of them played after 1930. There's a couple of guys in the .360+ range in present times in Billy Hamilton and Puig but guys that high tend to be base stealers not mashers. Rogers Hornsby is the only player above .360 with more than 150 HRs. Harry Heilmann at 183 HRs is the only other player above .350 though Jeter is right on .350 with 260 and Bill Terry(154) and Matt Kemp(183) are also there.

Normally with players you can generally find at least a dozen or so players who put up similar type numbers out of 144 years of data. With Bryant you're talking Thome and even he didn't have that sort of BABIP(.322 career). Saying a player is "unique" is often over used. I think Bryant is one of the few cases where it's 100% apt.

 

[justaChifan]

Clearly this was over your head. I'll make this as simple as I can. The poster I was replying to was discussing how no one truly dominates today. My point was that even in 1984 you had very similar circumstances. In that year Storm Davis was arguably one of the best pitchers in the league. No one would say he was a dominant pitcher because he had really 2 good years. On the contrary, people remember guys like Ryan because they were great players. The point here is that people tend to forget guys like Davis(with good reason) and only remember the stars from the 80's. That in turn makes it seem like that era was more dominant than it was. 10 years from now people are probably not going to talk about Jose Quintana to throw a name out. They are only going to remember guys like King Felix and Kershaw because in large part they are the ones worth remembering. However, that doesn't change the overall level of competition. The reason the dead ball era and now the steroid era are worth talking about is because the other 70-80 years or so of baseball often have very similar statistics.

Sorry, I thought the conversation was about durable aces, which Ryan was.
He pitched on some terrible Angel, Astro and Ranger teams. My bad.

 

[JosMin]

So amped for this game. I hope we rock Harvey.

 

[nwfisch]

:cubs:

 

[JosMin]

Granderson made some nice contact

 

[chibears55]

Im thinking Baez is definitely going to be traded at some point this year. ..

i was thinking maybe if he continues to show improvement in Iowa that they could bring him up and consider using him in LF

 

[JosMin]

Hammel having control issues early. Cold night taking its toll on locating pitches. Hammel missed with a few fastballs.

 

[chibears55]

So amped for this game. I hope we rock Harvey.

May need a bunch of runs the way this is starting out..
Bags loaded 1 out

 

[JosMin]

Winds are insane tonight, glad Coghlan was able to adjust there.

 

[JosMin]

That Harvey pitch missed by a lot.....

 

[JosMin]

Wind has helped both teams so far -- love seeing the bat speed from Rizzo and Bryant.

 

[JosMin]

Montero find some room up the middle. Let's get some offense going.

 

[SilenceS]

I know Harvey is good but these announcers are annoying talking about him


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[JosMin]

Double play.... Castro/Russell/Rizzo.

Let's keep that together for the next 10 years, please?

 

[chibears55]

Looks like a night their going to have to generate a run.

Getem on Getem over Getem in