IST: White Sox v Cubs

How many games will the Cubs Win?


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CSF77

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Hamels younger and better, hed be worth it for next 4 yrs

Price is an Ace, hed be worth 25+ per
(Any pitcher liable to blow an arm ) wheather they cost 20 or 25 per. not really much of difference. ..


Cubs offered Shields 2 yrs and a vesting option for 3rd at about 18.5 per i believe in January ...

doubt their willing to now give him 21 per for next 3 guaranteed, plus now give up players to get him. ..


Just think cubs will wait til off season to get another TOR guy, for this year they probably get a reasonable Middle guy...

Cole would cost Vogelbach, 1 MI (Baez or Torres) and 1 of the Cubs top 3 SP prospects. That is just to start.

Price will be closer to 30 per vs 25 per. 7 years would be a min. I question the investment. That could blow up in their face. Price is going into it with plenty of miles on his arm and he is not above what is happening to CC and Vandi late carrier. Both are over paid for what they are bringing.
 

chibears55

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Cole would cost Vogelbach, 1 MI (Baez or Torres) and 1 of the Cubs top 3 SP prospects. That is just to start.

Price will be closer to 30 per vs 25 per. 7 years would be a min. I question the investment. That could blow up in their face. Price is going into it with plenty of miles on his arm and he is not above what is happening to CC and Vandi late carrier. Both are over paid for what they are bringing.
Vogelbach has no place on this team..
Baez is expendable
Any Sp given up wouldnt crack rotation for a few years anyways....

I prefer Hamels over Price...


Their not going to invest players and more money then originally offered for a 33 YO Sheild for next 3 years...
Those players and or money will go into someone younger


If it isn't trading for Hamels, i dont think they will address a TOR starter until the off season. ..
i think they will eventually end up with a rental middle of order type that wont cost much in players to get them through this year, along with a bat and maybe a reliever. ...

17 days left......
 

CSF77

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Smart thing would be to trade for Norris in Toronto.

Storos are in on Cueto. Hamels most likely hits the market. Shields will most likely also.

I see the Yanks aiming for 1 of the 3. Dodgers depends on how Beachy does. They may need a 3rd arm. With Grenke's opt out clause it would be smart to get a arm with control. Shields seems a fit with them.

So I question if the Cubs are willing to give up too much. They could just promote up Baez and Schwarber later year and mix and match. See where they all pan out. Ideally you want to trade out Castro in the off season and move Schwarber to LF. Then for CF you aim at a guy with range.

I'm thinking that they get another filler arm then in the off season they might gun for Latos.
 

Parade_Rain

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Vogelbach has no place on this team..
Baez is expendable
Any Sp given up wouldnt crack rotation for a few years anyways....

I prefer Hamels over Price...


Their not going to invest players and more money then originally offered for a 33 YO Sheild for next 3 years...
Those players and or money will go into someone younger


If it isn't trading for Hamels, i dont think they will address a TOR starter until the off season. ..
i think they will eventually end up with a rental middle of order type that wont cost much in players to get them through this year, along with a bat and maybe a reliever. ...

17 days left......
Is Baez expendable? Do we know that for certain? I do agree that Vogel Bach is. He is AL DH material.
 

chibears55

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Is Baez expendable? Do we know that for certain? I do agree that Vogel Bach is. He is AL DH material.
I only say he expendable based on having others already in front of him at 2B SS and 3B. ..

Doubt they look to him for LF..

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Parade_Rain

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I only say he expendable based on having others already in front of him at 2B SS and 3B. ..

Doubt they look to him for LF..

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Got it. OK. I think it is a shame that he got hurt. He may have made the adjustments necessary to be that bat. Certainly a platoon with Coghs or something this year. What if he had Castro's current batting numbers but with a lot more pop? Would he be expendable then?
 

chibears55

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Got it. OK. I think it is a shame that he got hurt. He may have made the adjustments necessary to be that bat. Certainly a platoon with Coghs or something this year. What if he had Castro's current batting numbers but with a lot more pop? Would he be expendable then?
If he were hitting .250 plus with double digit HRs , hed be playing every day...

I just think that if they have a major trade in mind this deadline and if he back in iowa b4 then .. they could use him as a chip if needed...

Otherwise come off season, their going to need to figure out who they want amongst castro russell baez and use the odd man out aa a major trade piece

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If he were hitting .250 plus with double digit HRs , hed be playing every day...

I just think that if they have a major trade in mind this deadline and if he back in iowa b4 then .. they could use him as a chip if needed...

Otherwise come off season, their going to need to figure out who they want amongst castro russell baez and use the odd man out aa a major trade piece

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Sorry, I disagree with this. There will be no major trade at the deadline. Patchwork stuff only IMOP. Regardless of where they're at in the standings, they are still in rebuild mode. You won't see any rentals or back of their career veterans coming here at the deadline. No Hamels, no Shields.....maybe a guy like Latos who is only 27 and wouldn't cost all that much in comparison but I'm certain even that won't happen unless they know they can sign him multi-year next year.
 

chibears55

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Sorry, I disagree with this. There will be no major trade at the deadline. Patchwork stuff only IMOP. Regardless of where they're at in the standings, they are still in rebuild mode. You won't see any rentals or back of their career veterans coming here at the deadline. No Hamels, no Shields.....maybe a guy like Latos who is only 27 and wouldn't cost all that much in comparison but I'm certain even that won't happen unless they know they can sign him multi-year next year.
Not sure what your disagreeing to..

I said IF they have one in mind. ...

I think most on here feel as you do, that there wont be any major moves this deadline. ..

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Parade_Rain

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Baez needs to be a starting middle infielder for us next year.
I hope so. That would mean he got his act together. He certainly has a ton of power potential.
 

CSF77

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Baez needs to be a starting middle infielder for us next year.

A trade was pulled back after he DL'ed. Not sure on any details but most likely for a starter. I'll bet with the Mets.

If they retain they should keep the game plan of him at 3B and easing Bryant to LF.

Bryant needs to be moved off of 3B. Too many errors combined with Castro's record pace needs to end.

I honestly think they should push Torres as a trade chip. He is gaining interest.
 

TL1961

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A trade was pulled back after he DL'ed. Not sure on any details but most likely for a starter. I'll bet with the Mets.

If they retain they should keep the game plan of him at 3B and easing Bryant to LF.

Bryant needs to be moved off of 3B. Too many errors combined with Castro's record pace needs to end.

I honestly think they should push Torres as a trade chip. He is gaining interest.

Bryant may very well end up in LF. That won't surprise anyone. But he's fine defensively. Baez at 3rd, leaving Castro at SS is far less of a D upgrade than Baez at SS (or at 2nd with Russell at SS) and Bryant at 3rd. (Or even Castro, though the bat would certainly not justify that. But if it came down to Castro Baez and Russell all in the IF, Castro should be at third.)
 

TL1961

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Bryant may very well end up in LF. That won't surprise anyone. But he's fine defensively. Baez at 3rd, leaving Castro at SS is far less of a D upgrade than Baez at SS (or at 2nd with Russell at SS) and Bryant at 3rd. (Or even Castro, though the bat would certainly not justify that. But if it came down to Castro Baez and Russell all in the IF, Castro should be at third.)

But it won't come down to that.
 

beckdawg

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Bryant needs to be moved off of 3B. Too many errors combined with Castro's record pace needs to end.

Bryant is at 5.9 UZR/150 right now. Granted we're only talking 675.2 innings presently so it's not definitive but metrics say he's decently above average nearing the "good" level at 3B. Looking at the breakdown his range is pretty good at +5 but his fielding(err runs) is at -1.6. Then again, that's not that surprising for someone who hasn't played there a ton. I'd expect him to get better at playing the hops over time.

Either way, I see nothing to suggest he's any where close to being bad enough that they have to move him off 3B now.
 

beckdawg

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Is Baez expendable? Do we know that for certain? I do agree that Vogel Bach is. He is AL DH material.

My thoughts on Baez are well known in terms of what I think he will be. Excluding them, I think he is. Presumably Russell will be the SS sooner rather than later. Whether it's Castro to 2B, Baez to 2B or whomever that seems pretty safe to assume. Where I would argue Baez is expendable is two fold. For one, if you can sell a team that he is a SS the corresponding value of his bat increases his value pretty exponentially. Even at 2B, his bat holds serious value. This year 2B's across the league are hitting .258/.316/.380 with roughly 11 HRs(per 650 PAs) and 12 SB. Baez arguably can be a 30+HR 20+ SB guy. I'm not as convinced as some on Baez defense but those who like it will tell you he could be good. If we split the difference and say he's average that's a pretty good player. At 3B, that barrier to entry is higher. 3B are hitting .260/.317/.411 with 18 HRs and 6 SB. LF has a similar problem in that you care less about their defense and more about their ability to hit. As such, from a purely value standpoint Baez is worth the most as a SS followed by 2B then probably 3B and LF.

Some would(and have) made the argument if he's a pretty good player at 2B why not just keep him? In my opinion there's several reasons. For one, while his AAA numbers are definitely nice to see the largely mean nothing if they don't translate to the MLB level which we can't say for sure. Additionally, it's difficult to say that Baez will ever be better than Castro has been. You could make the argument that Castro has already proven his value as a hitter and provides some experience that Baez doesn't which has some intrinsic value. Baez outside of Schwarber has the most value of players not in the majors mean if you're going to trade anyone he'd bring the most return presumably.

I'd also throw out the idea that the cubs are ridiculously deep at 2B even if they trade Baez. Besides the idea of throwing Castro there you have Alcantara in AAA, Stephen Bruno in AA(hitting .266/.337/.346), Daniel Lockhart in A+(not that impressed myself but mlb.com has him in the top 30 prospects), Chesny Young in A(.332/.403/.380), Frandy Delarosa in A-(.304/.362/.424 and was also a top 10 IFA in 2012 I believe) and that's before you talk about Happ(heard they are going to try him at 2B in fall instructs) and Torres who's rating at SS in A plus some like La Stella. Now La Stella and guys like Young/Bruno probably aren't likely to be amazing players but they have a decent shot to be league average 2B and they would obviously be fall back options if Alcantara, Castro and/or Torres don't play to their talent levels.

Some are probably scared to trade Baez because "what if he becomes great?" My counter to that is it honestly doesn't matter what he does if you make the right trade. For example, if we throw out a hypothetical trade of Sonny Gray for Baez, Vogelbach, and McKinney plus filler out there does it matter if Baez is a star as long as Gray continues to pitch like he has this year over the prime years of his career? I don't know if that is enough to get Gray but my point here is what you give up really doesn't matter so long as what you get in return is as good. If Gray and Baez both perform up to expectations the only way you regret that is probably if McKinney becomes a star because frankly the cubs probably can't use Vogelbach anyways.

To summarize, Baez is probably the only player who can net you a franchise player outside of Schwarber. I think what makes the most sense is you role with Russell and Castro for the time being as MI be it as is or moving Russell to SS and Castro to 2B. Castro is under contract until 2019 with a 2020 option(2016: $7.8, 2017: $9.8, 2018: $10.8, 2019: $11.8, 2020 $16 mil option $1 mil buyout). Castro has been between a 2-3 fWAR guy with 1 WAR on FA being worth around $7 mil the past few years he's cheap still. From there, you can either wait for Castro to mature or ride with him until Alcantara, Torres, Happ or whomever supplants him. And even if all that talent fails, you're talking about a team which given the young bats they have should be above average hitting anyways. All that being said, I wouldn't move Baez unless you got a franchise player either in their prime or pre-prime.
 

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My thoughts on Baez are well known in terms of what I think he will be. Excluding them, I think he is. Presumably Russell will be the SS sooner rather than later. Whether it's Castro to 2B, Baez to 2B or whomever that seems pretty safe to assume. Where I would argue Baez is expendable is two fold. For one, if you can sell a team that he is a SS the corresponding value of his bat increases his value pretty exponentially. Even at 2B, his bat holds serious value. This year 2B's across the league are hitting .258/.316/.380 with roughly 11 HRs(per 650 PAs) and 12 SB. Baez arguably can be a 30+HR 20+ SB guy. I'm not as convinced as some on Baez defense but those who like it will tell you he could be good. If we split the difference and say he's average that's a pretty good player. At 3B, that barrier to entry is higher. 3B are hitting .260/.317/.411 with 18 HRs and 6 SB. LF has a similar problem in that you care less about their defense and more about their ability to hit. As such, from a purely value standpoint Baez is worth the most as a SS followed by 2B then probably 3B and LF.

Some would(and have) made the argument if he's a pretty good player at 2B why not just keep him? In my opinion there's several reasons. For one, while his AAA numbers are definitely nice to see the largely mean nothing if they don't translate to the MLB level which we can't say for sure. Additionally, it's difficult to say that Baez will ever be better than Castro has been. You could make the argument that Castro has already proven his value as a hitter and provides some experience that Baez doesn't which has some intrinsic value. Baez outside of Schwarber has the most value of players not in the majors mean if you're going to trade anyone he'd bring the most return presumably.

I'd also throw out the idea that the cubs are ridiculously deep at 2B even if they trade Baez. Besides the idea of throwing Castro there you have Alcantara in AAA, Stephen Bruno in AA(hitting .266/.337/.346), Daniel Lockhart in A+(not that impressed myself but mlb.com has him in the top 30 prospects), Chesny Young in A(.332/.403/.380), Frandy Delarosa in A-(.304/.362/.424 and was also a top 10 IFA in 2012 I believe) and that's before you talk about Happ(heard they are going to try him at 2B in fall instructs) and Torres who's rating at SS in A plus some like La Stella. Now La Stella and guys like Young/Bruno probably aren't likely to be amazing players but they have a decent shot to be league average 2B and they would obviously be fall back options if Alcantara, Castro and/or Torres don't play to their talent levels.

Some are probably scared to trade Baez because "what if he becomes great?" My counter to that is it honestly doesn't matter what he does if you make the right trade. For example, if we throw out a hypothetical trade of Sonny Gray for Baez, Vogelbach, and McKinney plus filler out there does it matter if Baez is a star as long as Gray continues to pitch like he has this year over the prime years of his career? I don't know if that is enough to get Gray but my point here is what you give up really doesn't matter so long as what you get in return is as good. If Gray and Baez both perform up to expectations the only way you regret that is probably if McKinney becomes a star because frankly the cubs probably can't use Vogelbach anyways.

To summarize, Baez is probably the only player who can net you a franchise player outside of Schwarber. I think what makes the most sense is you role with Russell and Castro for the time being as MI be it as is or moving Russell to SS and Castro to 2B. Castro is under contract until 2019 with a 2020 option(2016: $7.8, 2017: $9.8, 2018: $10.8, 2019: $11.8, 2020 $16 mil option $1 mil buyout). Castro has been between a 2-3 fWAR guy with 1 WAR on FA being worth around $7 mil the past few years he's cheap still. From there, you can either wait for Castro to mature or ride with him until Alcantara, Torres, Happ or whomever supplants him. And even if all that talent fails, you're talking about a team which given the young bats they have should be above average hitting anyways. All that being said, I wouldn't move Baez unless you got a franchise player either in their prime or pre-prime.
I don't have a problem getting Baez or Russell over to 3B either.
 

beckdawg

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I don't have a problem getting Baez or Russell over to 3B either.

To me it essentially becomes who do you prefer as a player long term between Baez and Schwarber unless you're absolutely convinced Scwarber is an every day catcher. Clearly Schwarber's bat is a plus major league bat. I don't really see any debating that at this point unless he just pulls a total 180 out of everything we've seen. That sort of bat is going to need to play daily. If the cubs think he can C daily then hey, I'm all on board with some form of Baez to LF or 3B and Bryant to the OF even though I'm not as thrilled by Baez's future as some.

My personal view is Schwarber will be a far better overall hitter(wont have as much power but average/OBP will make up for it) and I think he'll play like 60% LF, 35% C and say 5% 1B when Rizzo needs a day off. If I'm right in that view I think trading Baez even as a 2B to another team probably has more value than a quasi bench player playing part time LF/3B. I suppose you could make an argument for him over Castro at 2B too. I think that's a tough argument to win at this point but I do see the validity of the idea. That being said, I still feel like if you get 75% of what Baez's peak potential out of Castro, Alcantara...etc you're still probably talking an above average player at 2B and outside of maybe Castro and Torres none of those players nets you anything even close to what Baez should.

In other words, why would you trade Alcantara and maybe get a #4 or #5 starter(#3 with more parts) when you can trade Baez and probably get a #2 maybe even a #1 with other parts. Again, if the cubs can find some package of Alcantara, Almora, McKinney...etc without giving up Schwarber and get a #1/2 then by all means keep Baez but I don't think that trade is out there.
 

CSF77

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Schwarber is the best hitter in the system. Baez is #2 due to his higher SO%.

If Schwarber ends up in LF then you want Bryant at 3B. Then it becomes Castro or Baez. Baez has more trade value so the decision becomes easy to make then.
 
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