It's Another VogelBomb! 2013 Minor League Thread

[SilenceS]

This is the guy 12uff interview with Jim Callis. Some good stuff!


. Who are the top 5 Cubs prospects and in what order do you rank them? Which Cubs prospects are in the mix for next year's top 100?


The top four prospects are pretty clear to me, though the order is debatable. I'd line them up like this: Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Albert Almora, Jorge Soler. At the time of the Matt Garza trade, I was willing to give Mike Olt a mulligan and put him at No. 5, but he has slumped even worse since the deal. Other candidates would be Dan Vogelbach, Arismendy Alcantara, Pierce Johnson and C.J. Edwards. I'll go with Johnson.


2. There's been a lot of talk about the Cubs potentially being a top 3 system going into next year. I believe you had the Cubs ranked 12th going into the season, where would you have the system ranked now after their recent acquisitions?


Hard to say exactly, because we don't rank all the systems until we break them all down for the Prospect Handbook. The Cubs are definitely on the upswing for a variety of reasons: a number of players have stepped forward; they've acquired more prospects via trades without graduating anyone significant to the majors; they've had a strong summer on the draft and international fronts. I think they definitely rank in the upper quartile of systems and could see them in the top three.


3. The front office decided they loved the international talent in this year's market and didn't let the new CBA rules stop them from signing everyone they wanted. They exceeded their pool to the amount that they will receive the maximum punishment of a 100% tax and no signings over 250K in next year's International free agent market. What do you think of that strategy and the talent they acquired? These guys are so far off, do they even sniff BA's preseason top 31 Cubs prospects?


I just wrote a column on this for the latest edition of our magazine. The strategy makes sense to me because the Cubs liked this year's pool better than next year's and essentially got two years' worth of talent up front this year. The penalties aren't as tough as they would be for draft overspending--the Cubs can't sign anyone for more than $250,000 next year but they'll still have their entire draft pool and can trade their slots they can't really use, which will have value. Outfielder Eloy Jimenez and shortstop Gleyber Torres were our top two prospects in our July 2 ratings, so I bet they both make the Top 30 in the Handbook.


4. For good and bad, which Cubs prospects have surprised you the most this year?

We had Arismendy Alcantara ranked pretty high (No. 10) on our preseason list, so I won't say that his year has been much of a surprise. Christian Villanueva has taken a step forward with his power, which is a positive development. Rock Shoulders has had a nice little breakout, Shawon Dunston Jr. has taken some positive steps. Kyle Hendricks and Erik Jokisch continue to prove themselves at every level they go to. On the downside, I thought Brett Jackson might turn things around this year and he hasn't. Tim Saunders' strong 2012 debut looks more like a mirage now. And Arodys Vizcaino hasn't been able to get back on the mound yet.


5. I think most fans have unrealistic expectations for prospects. I completed a study last year on the success rates of first round picks from 1990-2007 and there's other studies out there using similar methods with Baseball America's Top 100 rankings in previous years and the results are not good. What kind of percentage do you think the Cubs top prospects have at being at least an everyday player, and also, what percentage would you put on them reaching their ceiling? (specifically the ones you feel will be in the top 100)


I do think there's a lot of truth in that first statement--prospects miss a lot more than fans realize. I think the good news, though, with the Cubs' top guys (Bryant, Baez, Almora, Soler) is that they are rated so highly (upper third of the Top 100, at least) and were drafted so highly (the three draftees all were top-nine picks) that their success rate should be a lot higher than everyone in an entire Top 100 or an entire first round. I don't see anything right now that makes me think they all won't be good everyday players. But to inject a little realism, one of them probably will fall by the wayside.


6. There's 2 names I feel obliged to ask about, Matt Szczur and Junior Lake. Szczur's putting up another solid season this year at AA, and Lake hit the ground running with the big league team after posting the best numbers of his minor league career at Iowa. You tempered your Szczur expectations a bit last year and Lake you believed was the perennial tease who was not going to be an everyday regular- has your opinion changed on them any this season? What kind of future should fans expect from these guys?


I haven't changed my opinion much on those guys. I still like Szczur more than most but I still think he's more of a second-division regular or, on a contender, a fourth outfielder. Especially on the Cubs, I don't see how he cracks a projected outfield of Almora in center and Bryant and Soler on the corners. Lake is off to a nice start in the majors but he's also hitting .400 on balls in play and has a 28-5 K-BB ratio. I see him as more of a tools than skills guy, and there's also no place for him in Chicago's future outfield. His best position might be third base, but the Cubs are loaded there. I think the best case for the Cubs is that Lake plays well enough to where they could deal him for a pitcher.


7. I recently wrote an in-depth scouting report on Baez<http://viewfromthebleachers.com/blog/2013/07/18/scouting-javier-baez/>; his contact problems and plate approach are very worrisome for me and I have him ranked 4th behind Soler, Bryant, and Almora because of that. I think he's either going to figure it out and be a superstar or be a huge bust with no chance of anything in the middle. However, he's turned it around rather quickly at AA, as he did at Daytona earlier this season. How do you feel about him? Can he succeed at the majors with his ultra aggressive approach that has worked thus far or will something have to give if he is going to become a major leaguer?


The lack of plate discipline is a concern, but I'd look at him as more unique than worrisome. Yes, he swings at everything and strikes out, but he's also 20 and has hit 31 homers this year and done just fine in Double-A. His walk rate is actually improving as he moves up. He has yet to get to a level where pitchers have stopped challenging him, and he makes such hard contact when he connects that I think he can have a higher BAPIP than most. Right now, he looks to me like a .270 hitter with 30-plus homers in the majors who might be able to play shortstop. I'd have a hard time ranking him behind anyone besides Bryant in the system.


8. Which prospect has the highest power potential out of Baez, Bryant, Soler, Olt, & Vogelbach and which is most likely to reach it?


I like Olt's power but I don't think he belongs in the same group as the others. The other four all have elite power potential. All of those guys have 40-homer upside. I think Baez and Bryant are the most likely to get to that point.


9. The Cubs are still pretty weak in the pitching department but there are some interesting names and potential rotation pieces in the farm. What order would you put these pitchers in - Pierce Johnson, CJ Edwards, Juan Carlos Paniagua, Kyle Hendricks, Arodys Vizcaino, & Barret Loux - and what kind of potential do they have? Are there any other pitchers in the system that you're high on?


Johnson, Edwards, Vizcaino (if he's healthy, a huge if), Paniagua, Hendricks, Loux. Pitching is the Cubs' biggest need right now, and they need a lot more in their system. I do like some of the guys they've drafted the last couple of years, such as Paul Blackburn, Duane Underwood, Trey Masek and Tyler Skulina.


10. The organization is very strong on the left side of the infield. What position do you think the following players will end up at and what kind of defensive ability will they have there?

* Starlin Castro - I think he's far from their best option at shortstop, but he's already established there and I don't see him moving. To me, he's a 45 defender on the 20-80 scouting scale.

* Javier Baez - Think he could be a 50 defender at shortstop but will wind up as a 55-60 defender at third base.

* Arismendy Alcantara - Erratic at shortstop so he's probably a 45 in the long run there, see him as a 50-55 at second base.

* Kris Bryant - Think he could be a 50 defender at third base but if Baez goes there, Bryant becomes a 50-55 corner outfielder.

* Mike Olt - Can be a 60 defender at third base but hard to see where he fits in Chicago's lineup of the future right now.

 

[Jntg4]

Doubt it. I expect after the super 2 cut off.

I know, but Baez only has around 760 last I checking Minor league at-bats, I was pointing out that what Sveum said is really far off from reality, especially in this case.

 

[Jntg4]

Minor League Highlights: Bryant and Vogelbach go yard. Olt walks twice off bench, but hitless again (0-1). Baez ejected.

 

[SilenceS]

Javier Baez, SS, Cubs (Double-A Tennessee)
I’ve been fortunate enough to do a lot of radio hits in the Chicago market, and I’m usually asked about the positional depth in the Cubs’ org, and which prospect has the highest ceiling. Baez has long been my answer despite the fact that Baseball Prospectus ranked Almora higher on the pre-season and mid-season lists, mostly due to the fact that Baez was viewed by many to be a high-risk player. The tools are very loud, with elite bat speed at the plate and excellent hands in the field, but the aggressiveness and one-speed-at-all-times approach in all phases of the game painted the picture of an immature player, a prospect that might spoil his future before it has a chance to blossom. After an impressive run in the Florida State League, the blossoming we have eagerly anticipated has taken place after a promotion to Double-A, where Baez already has 26 extra-base hits in his first 40 games. Double-A is a test level, a separator level where pretenders are exposed and future major-league players are uncovered. It’s a small sample but a positive developmental step, and Baez is showing that he is not only prepared for the test but talented enough to excel against much older and wiser competition. He could be a star, a role 7 type with a middle-of-the-order bat and left-side chops in the field. Whatever his future role might be, the Cubs have an extremely valuable commodity in Baez.–-Jason Parks




Dillon Maples, RHP, Cubs (Short-Season A Boise)
The oft-maligned 2011 bonus baby has just enjoyed perhaps his best month of professional baseball, following a mid-July demotion to short-season Boise. After a rocky three-walk performance in his Northwest League debut – a relief outing in which he recorded no outs – Maples has rattled off six solid starts, totaling 28 innings, 30 strikeouts, 21 hits, six walks, and just three runs. This past week, Maples put together his most impressive outing yet against Eugene, the Padres’ Northwest League affiliate.

Maples breezed through six innings, striking out nine, walking two, hitting one batter, and allowing just one hit – a single to lead off the third inning, subsequently erased by a 6-3 double-play. Maples faced just two over the minimum and, perhaps most impressive, did not record an out in the air. Coming off what could have been a demoralizing set of struggles in the Midwest League, the Cubs have to be encouraged by the vigor with which Maples has attacked Northwest League competition while enjoying his first real taste of dominance at the pro ranks.

Though it seems like Maples has been around forever, the former UNC commit has logged 74 professional innings due to his late signing in 2011 and elbow troubles last summer that limited him to 10 innings. While his velocity has been inconsistent throughout 2013 – alternating between the upper 80s and lower 90s – Maples has had no issue missing bats, and has made positive strides in both control and command since his demotion, drastically cutting down on his free passes and doing a better job overall of commanding the ball to the bottom-U. There is still a long road ahead of the young righty, but recent signs point to Maples taking a developmental step forward. He’ll look to finish 2013 on a high note, and to carry that momentum into a second shot at the Midwest League in 2014. –Nick J. Faleris

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21554

 

[SilenceS]

We talk a lot about Cubs prospects here and we do our best to give you statistical analysis, scouts' takes and, of course, our own thoughts and opinions on each player. One question I often get are where the Cubs prospects rank in the top 100. My answer is always this: I'm not fully qualified to do that because I don't see as many prospects as the national writers. So I asked one of the best in the business, Jason "Professor" Parks of Baseball Prospectus, if he could compare some of the top Cubs prospects with some of the elite prospects in the game. I gave him some names to compare and he responded in his always entertaining style with some great, unbiased feedback.. It lends some great perspective on just where Cubs prospects stand overall.

I want to also note that I was ambitious with my comparisons because it was interesting to me to see where Cubs prospects don't quite measure up as well as some encouraging opinions on just how close they are -- and in some ways, how they can potentially be even better.

So with all that in mind, here are the comparison/contrasts I presented to Professor Parks:

1A and 1B: I was having trouble deciding whom to pair up with Sano. Baez because of their similar development pace, silly power, and top 10-ish prospect status and Bryant because they're both big, patient power hitting 3B who may need to move to RF. So, why choose? Let's do both.

Javier Baez/Kris Bryant vs. Miguel Sano

Parks: Baez has the highest ceiling of the trio, which is saying something considering Bryant’s recent draft placement and Sano’s monster power potential and present prospect status. Baez has the best bat speed in the minors, the kind that will eventually be compared to the best in the game, guys like Cano, et al. When discussing power, Sano is top of the food chain in the minors (along with Joey Gallo of the Rangers), but Baez has just as much raw power, as I’ve seen him go over the batter’s eye in dead center on a line, a shot that was basically 440 ft. The power utility is showing its face now, and if he can continue to temper his approach and keep himself in favorable positions, he can continue to bring his power into the game.

He’s never going to be an on-base machine, as he’s aggressive mentality will keep the bat moving and the ball in play. But he does have the potential to hit for a high average, which is a big separator between him and Sano. A good front office source just put a 6+ future on Baez’s bat, with 7 power, meaning he could be a .285+ hitter with 30+ bombs. That’s a monster. Sano is unlikely to find contact with such consistency, most likely developing into a low average/high power/high strikeout type. Bryant could end up a 6/6 type, which could put him in the same tier as Baez as far as offensive value is concerned, but I think Baez has a much better defensive skill-set and is likely to remain a left-side player, giving him the highest potential value of the group.

2. I know you dig on Almora about as much as I do and we may both be a little higher on him than most, so I'm throwing a lofty prospect comparison at you on this one-- the consensus best prospect in the game.

Albert Almora vs. Byron Buxton

Parks: Almora can show all five tools, with solid-average to plus projections across the board from a premium spot on the field. Add to the equation an intrinsic feel for the game, and his overall profile puts in the discussion for being a top ten prospect in the game. Buxton is by far the best prospect in baseball, with loud tools that can drown any and all in his class. He is a legit elite runner that hasn’t even learned how to steal bases yet. His arm is plus, his glove could be elite, and the combination makes him a potential gold glove winner in centerfield at the highest level. His bat is more advanced than expected, with easy plus bat speed and a knack for hard contact. He isn’t a free swinger, and knows how to identify pitches and shows an approach, so his attack at the plate isn’t one-dimensional. At the end of the day, Buxton could be a high-average hitter, with elite speed and solid-average power with top-shelf defense at a premium position. That’s one of the best players in the game, and that’s a moderate projection, as some in the industry have thrown 8 grades on his ceiling and compared his potential to that of hall of famer level players. One source suggested his floor was Torii Hunter and his ceiling was Willie Mays, and after a field sobriety test, it was determined that the scout was stone sober and dead serious. It’s lofty and borderline irresponsible to propagate, but his talent is on a different level than his contemporaries.

3. Here's a couple of tall, athletic future RF'ers for you who would have been at about the same pace had Soler not gotten hurt.

Jorge Soler vs. Gregory Polanco

Parks: I’d take Polanco over Soler, but mostly because I’ve been able to put eyes on him during his career and I’m more familiar with his skill; I think he’s a better all-around athlete, has more projection in the body, and can match (if not exceed) Soler’s offensive potential. Soler’s season was frustrating on several levels, but when he was healthy and on-the-field, it was easy to dream on the future, as he looked the part of a prototypical corner player, with 25+ home run potential. Polanco is most likely a right fielder at the end of the day, but has the athleticism to play some centerfield, and that swing from the left-side has the potential to hit for average and power. They have similar profiles and similar ceilings, but I’ll take the left-handed power and more projectable body. It’s close.

4. Alcantara has started to get more national attention this year and it looks like he'll crack some top 100 lists, so how does he compare with another wiry, athletic switch-hitting SS/2B who has been on that national radar a bit longer.

Arismendy Alcantara vs. Alen Hanson

Parks: I’ve often felt that Hanson was overrated, despite the fact that he was putting the bat on the ball at an advanced level at a very young age. I still think he’s a promising player, but I don’t think he’s the first-division talent that his early production might have suggested. He can swing it, shows good pop for his size, and can run, so he can beat you in several ways. He’s a legit prospect and a future major leaguer, but not a high-impact type, in my opinion. Alcantara might not live on the same prospect tier as Hanson, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up having the better major league career. Despite owning left-side tools, Alcantara is a better fit for second base, where his throwing mechanics won’t be such an issue and his range can really shine. He has the potential to be a very good second baseman, a position that often gets overlooked next to its left-side counterpart, but requires similar athleticism and coordination to properly execute. At the plate, Alcantara isn’t a middle-of-the-order hitter that will impact a lineup with his power; rather, he’s a catalytic player, with very good speed, very quick hands capable of producing quality bat speed and more pop than you would expect given his size. He has a lot of swing and miss, and I don’t see a high-average player despite the speed. But he can really drive the ball, especially to the pull-side, and if a pitcher sleeps on his bat speed and tries to work him in, he can get the bat head around on the ball and hurt you. Like Hanson, he’s probably a second-division type at the highest level, but a very capable (and affordable) talent nonetheless, and if I ran an organization and I had to pick either Hanson or Alcantara, I’d take Alcantara.

5. We'll take a different route here for this last question. The Cubs pitching prospects lag a bit behind right now but they have some interesting arms at the A ball level and below: Pierce Johnson, C.J. Edwards, Paul Blackburn, Duane Underwood, and a couple of guys drafted this year, Tyler Skulina and LHP Rob Zastryzny. There is also the injured, but still young and very talented Arodys Vizcaino and a pitchability/command guy having a great season in Kyle Hendricks at the upper levels. Do any of these guys have a shot at your top 101 list and whom among this group do you like best long term?

Parks: Johnson has a shot at the 101; Edwards should be in the discussion as well. I don’t love Edwards’ ceiling like some, but I’ve been around the kid since he was drafted and I want to be wrong about the projection. With Edwards, I see a short-burst reliever in the end, despite the easy delivery and loose arm. I don’t see a high-end secondary offering, and I question his physical ability to log 200+ a season at the highest level. The young arms have taken a frustrating journey so far, but the potential is still in place, so hopefully they can finish strong, take developmental steps forward this off-season, and put their names back on prospect lists in 2014. The talent is there.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21554

 

[SilenceS]

Baez 3 for 4 with 2 doubles and a walk. No k's and was caught stealing. He is up to .298 and has made AA his effing *****. His August has been nothing short of ridiculous.

 

[SilenceS]

Alcantara had a pretty good game as well. 2 for 5 with a homer and 2 k's. He has been struggling a bit, but this AA team is just loaded with hitting and Bryant, Volgelbach, Soler, and Almora haven't even gotten there yet.

 

[JosMin]

Alcantara had a pretty good game as well. 2 for 5 with a homer and 2 k's. He has been struggling a bit, but this AA team is just loaded with hitting and Bryant, Volgelbach, Soler, and Almora haven't even gotten there yet.

So much to look forward to right now, it's absolutely ridiculous. This year has been exciting for the Cubs' farm system, but I think next year is going to blow our lids off.

 

[Jntg4]

So much to look forward to right now, it's absolutely ridiculous. This year has been exciting for the Cubs' farm system, but I think next year is going to blow our lids off.

Until Dewey talks about our farm system getting worse when Baez graduates from it and acts like that's a bad thing :yep:

 

[SilenceS]

Until Dewey talks about our farm system getting worse when Baez graduates from it and acts like that's a bad thing :yep:

Baez has really taken off since mid season rankings. Anyone who ranks anyone in our farm above him is absolutely nuts. he has dominated level he should dominate at such a young age.

 

[SilenceS]

So, lets put this in perspective. If Baez has enough at bats in AA, he would be 3rd in BA, 1st in OPS by a large margin, 1st in SLG by a large margin, tied for 9th in OBP, 10th in homers. Unbelievable. He has a wRC+184 which is the only stat that compares players to leagues in minors. He also has wOBA of .441. He has been incredible. I try to hold back my expectations, but he is the best prospect I have seen the Cubs have in a very long time. I remember when people bitched about the pick. I loved it when he was drafted. His bat speed just sold me right off the bat! Im :fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap: all over the place.

 

[JosMin]

So, lets put this in perspective. If Baez has enough at bats in AA, he would be 3rd in BA, 1st in OPS by a large margin, 1st in SLG by a large margin, tied for 9th in OBP, 10th in homers. Unbelievable. He has a wRC+184 which is the only stat that compares players to leagues in minors. He also has wOBA of .441. He has been incredible. I try to hold back my expectations, but he is the best prospect I have seen the Cubs have in a very long time. I remember when people bitched about the pick. I loved it when he was drafted. His bat speed just sold me right off the bat! Im :fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap: all over the place.

But let's not get excited about him or anyone else because not all prospects turn into superstars, let alone everyday players.....

 

[JosMin]

Also, it's going to be fun to see how him and Francisco Lindor both continue to develop. Lindor is an absolute vacuum at short and has a laser arm to match. Maybe not quite as elite as Jose Iglesias, but I'd honestly put him a hair below -- he's that good defensively. Many still project him to add 15-homer pop and hit for a very solid average at short. Damn, prospects are fun.

 

[daddies3angels]

Also, it's going to be fun to see how him and Francisco Lindor both continue to develop. Lindor is an absolute vacuum at short and has a laser arm to match. Maybe not quite as elite as Jose Iglesias, but I'd honestly put him a hair below -- he's that good defensively. Many still project him to add 15-homer pop and hit for a very solid average at short. Damn, prospects are fun.

Want to know whats even more fun? When the team that you follow has the MLB team in a playoff race. Minors should be an after thought for fans.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Want to know whats even more fun? When the team that you follow has the MLB team in a playoff race. Minors should be an after thought for fans.

Or another way of looking at it could be that real fans are interested in all facets of the team they root for which includes young players who may be helping the MLB club in the future.

 

[CSF77]

Baez: 4 for 4. 2 HR's 5 RBI's

Season Totals:

.286/.348/.581 .929 OPS 33 HR 100 RBI's.

Uhm...Maybe they should think of giving him a taste in Sept.

 

[Boobaby1]

Baez has really taken off since mid season rankings. Anyone who ranks anyone in our farm above him is absolutely nuts. he has dominated level he should dominate at such a young age.

BTW, last night Baez only went 4 for 4 with 2 HR's and 5 RBI's, plus raised his average to .307. .

Not too shabby considering the slow start he had for Tennessee. :bow:

 

[SilenceS]

I will buy his jersey! He is a monster!

 

[CSF77]

Was thinking if they had some balls. Have both Baez and Bryant come up for sept. Tnen both hit fall and winter leagues together. S/T with the main team. If they keep up the high level of play start them both out of S/T.

Seeing the line up of Castro and Rizzo 1/2. Could you imagine Castro/Rizzo/Baez/Bryant/Schierholtz/Lake/Valbuena/Castillo on opening day.

May sound like a rush but after a player pulls a 30/100 with improved BB rates he deserves a chance to break with the club. Bryant is just an advanced hitter coming in. They both should should be given the opertunity to compete for starting jobs next year.

 

[Mr. Cub]

Baez: 4 for 4. 2 HR's 5 RBI's

Season Totals:

.286/.348/.581 .929 OPS 33 HR 100 RBI's.

Uhm...Maybe they should think of giving him a taste in Sept.

I like it. ......But, but, but LaHair had like 38 HR's in 2011..... Just saying. In Baez I Trust!