It's Another VogelBomb! 2013 Minor League Thread

[KBisBack!]

What's a prospect? They haven't touched the majors so they're worthless!

Yep.

I am a fan of the Chicago Cubs. Not the Daytona Cubs.

When Baez actually does something for the CHICAGO CUBS, I will be happy.

Not make a mess because he hit a couple home runs off players that will pitch as many innings in the major leagues as I will.

 

[The Bandit]

Someone needs to teach KB how to use multi-quote so he doesn't clog the forums with his garbage.

 

[Jntg4]

But the idiots like yourself DONT KNOW HOW OFTEN THEY BUST.

That is why you guys keep staining yourselves every time a prospect gets a hit.

Yawn.

We understand that they bust way more often than not. At the same time, the elite prospects are those significantly more likely to do something, and every player was once a prospect. You can't get great players without top prospects, especially with marquee free agents becoming more and more rare under the new CBA. It's either develop or trade, in which case you need those top prospects anyway.

This is the Minor League Thread, we talk about prospects, I know, it's horrifying isn't it?

 

[nwfisch]

But the idiots like yourself DONT KNOW HOW OFTEN THEY BUST.

That is why you guys keep staining yourselves every time a prospect gets a hit.

Yawn.

I think the problem is these kids are too young to remember the hype train Corey Patterson had and Felix Pie had, and even Mark Prior had.

Despite Prior's dominance for a season, the wheels fell off quickly. Even Strasberg's arm isn't doing the best now.

Like you said, I'm not going to start the :fap:fest for prospects until they reach the MLB level. My expectations have been diminished so much from those 3 along with numerous others in the Cubs system.

 

[Jntg4]

I think the problem is these kids are too young to remember the hype train Corey Patterson had and Felix Pie had, and even Mark Prior had.

Despite Prior's dominance for a season, the wheels fell off quickly. Even Strasberg's arm isn't doing the best now.

Like you said, I'm not going to start the :fap:fest for prospects until they reach the MLB level. My expectations have been diminished so much from those 3 along with numerous others in the Cubs system.

Because we've had highly touted prospects does not mean that our current crop of prospects does absolutely nothing to help the organization.

What's better and gives you a more likely chance of getting a star out of the farm? Four Top 20's or nobody in the Top 100? It does make a difference.

 

[nwfisch]

Because we've had highly touted prospects does not mean that our current crop of prospects does absolutely nothing to help the organization.

What's better and gives you a more likely chance of getting a star out of the farm? Four Top 20's or nobody in the Top 100? It does make a difference.

To me the whole prospect ranking system is irrelevant when you see guys like Albert Pujols fall past all 30 teams.

Again, I can't really stand WAR, but this blogger paints a decent picture of the success and failure rate of prospects.

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

69% of prospects in the Top 100 are considered "busts" by this author.

I'd be interested in any other research done on the subject, because I'd like to compare the success rates of first round picks in other sports as well.

 

[SilenceS]

Albert Pujols made the majors in 2 years and was ranked 41 best prospect in 2001. He didnt come out of nowhere. The reason he wasnt higher was because there was huge dispute about his age. Which I believe he is older then what he says. You can look up every top 100 list since 1990. A ton bust, but also looks at the top 25's. A lot of very good players came out of the top 25's. I am not guaranteeing one prospect, but to dismiss them because they are not in the majors yet is crazy to me. Also, this whole internet thing has made a lot of people believe if a person is past the age of 22 they must be a bust. Different players take different times to develop. Of course there are a lot who never make it when every year MLB influxes 1200 plus players into their minor league system.

 

[nwfisch]

Albert Pujols made the majors in 2 years and was ranked 41 best prospect in 2001. He didnt come out of nowhere. The reason he wasnt higher was because there was huge dispute about his age. Which I believe he is older then what he says. You can look up every top 100 list since 1990. A ton bust, but also looks at the top 25's. A lot of very good players came out of the top 25's. I am not guaranteeing one prospect, but to dismiss them because they are not in the majors yet is crazy to me. Also, this whole internet thing has made a lot of people believe if a person is past the age of 22 they must be a bust. Different players take different times to develop. Of course there are a lot who never make it when every year MLB influxes 1200 plus players into their minor league system.

Nobody is dismissing prospects. People here have seen prospects fade and disappoint too many times, so we're not going to start a :fap:fest over someone hitting 4 HRs in AA ball.

 

[SilenceS]

Nobody is dismissing prospects. People here have seen prospects fade and disappoint too many times, so we're not going to start a :fap:fest over someone hitting 4 HRs in AA ball.

I have seen ton of prospects bust. I went through the Hee Sop Choi's, Pattersons, Pie. Prior is not in that category. Injuries derailed him not development. Who is jerking off to Baez hitting 4 homers. Like I said, I havent seen one person say he is the next coming but to not be impressed by it is insane. I would be impressed if a HS player did it. Baez is 20 and is making strides in the right direction. Sorry, I appreciate development. I am a Cubs fan. That means I am a fan of the whole organization not just 9 guys on the big league club. You have to have a farm to build a big league club. You have to know when to trade them when to keep them. How to develop them. I also dont believe in comparing prospects. I dont believe because one failed the other one is going to fail. They are each different. If you cant be happy for the Cubs top prospect belting 4 homers in a game then what the fuck are you ever going to be happy about.

 

[KBisBack!]

Nobody is dismissing prospects. People here have seen prospects fade and disappoint too many times, so we're not going to start a :fap:fest over someone hitting 4 HRs in AA ball.

Exactly.

Even guys ranked in the top 100 fail 5 out of 6 times and as I have also pointed out the Royals recently had 5 in the top 25 which have produced nothing of substance at the major league level.

Yet a bunch of college kids on a message board think that the Cubs have 4 All Stars in waiting in the minors because they haven't been watching baseball long enough to understand the facts and refuse to listen to those with much greater knowledge than they have.

 

[KBisBack!]

I dont believe because one failed the other one is going to fail.

I believe that the odds that were tracked over a decade of top 100 prospects that show only 15% succeed at an above average level that only 1 out 6 will perform at an above average level.

If you cant be happy for the Cubs top prospect belting 4 homers in a game then what the fuck are you ever going to be happy about.

A major league player in a Cubs uniform hitting 4 homers in a game.

 

[SilenceS]

I believe that the odds that were tracked over a decade of top 100 prospects that show only 15% succeed at an above average level that only 1 out 6 will perform at an above average level.



A major league player in a Cubs uniform hitting 4 homers in a game.

Well, you better summon the God's and bring back Sammy Sosa and a needle because I highly doubt anyone on this roster does it. Rizzo would be the only shot.

 

[nwfisch]

Well, you better summon the God's and bring back Sammy Sosa and a needle because I highly doubt anyone on this roster does it. Rizzo would be the only shot.

Navarro hit 3 in a game

 

[KBIB]

Even guys ranked in the top 100 fail 5 out of 6 times and as I have also pointed out the Royals recently had 5 in the top 25 which have produced nothing of substance at the major league level.

This would be BA's 2011 top 100. Of which players in the top 20 that year were; Harper, Trout, Machado, Shelby Miller, Chapman, Freeman, Chris Sale, Matt Moore. That's a pretty impressive list right there but selective knowledge is pointing out that the Royals had four players in that same top 20, none of which panned out even with Myers and Montgomery being used to get the Royals a top of the rotation guy in Shields.

Ouch. It seems like prospects do have some sort of value. I wont even mention how the Royals thru out all their years of being horrible, have possibly the worst reputation for developing prospects, so the Royals having a bunch of prospects is kind of like saying a library has a lot of books. Nobody checks out all the books at a library, but to each his own.

Yet a bunch of college kids on a message board think that the Cubs have 4 All Stars in waiting in the minors because they haven't been watching baseball long enough to understand the facts and refuse to listen to those with much greater knowledge than they have.

Show me somebody with knowledge here and trust me, somebody will read them.

Wait, did you mean you? (chuckles)




KANER!!!

 

[mountsalami]

I'll take KB's side here.

Top 20 prospects dont mean shit. Ask the royals.

No need to take KB's side, although in most cases it's not a bad idea.

Some here already realize that prospect's rankings don't mean jack shit other than to the media and other news outlets that are making money off of it.

Since rankings mean so much....

How is it that Hemmoroidys is still ranked the fifth or sixth best prospect of the Cubs and hasn't thrown a pitch. No one has a clue how this guy is going to recover, if he ever does.

So I guess if an injured Hemmoroidys is better than any prospective pitcher that isn't injured for the Cubs.......

Then can anyone tell me how the expert idiots that rank these guys come up with a number ?

It just can't be based on pure bullshit. Right ?

 

[mountsalami]

Even the royalsreview contains hard evidence proving that the prospect rankings don't mean shit.

I'm not sure what else a guy needs to show that the rankings are bullshit.

 

[nwfisch]

Even the royalsreview contains hard evidence proving that the prospect rankings don't mean shit.

I'm not sure what else a guy needs to show that rakings are bullshit.

I wouldn't call WAR "hard evidence" by any stretch, but I just hate the constant fap fest over prospects who have a good game.

 

[mountsalami]

I wouldn't call WAR "hard evidence" by any stretch, but I just hate the constant fap fest over prospects who have a good game.

I've read the review a while back fisch.

The body of evidence as a whole, using WAR or not, contains enough hard evidence to make a tremndous case that rankings are purely a fairy tale.

 

[KBisBack!]

This would be BA's 2011 top 100. Of which players in the top 20 that year were; Harper, Trout, Machado, Shelby Miller, Chapman, Freeman, Chris Sale, Matt Moore.

Well your 'great' knowledge left out the NL leader in HR's, Domonic Brown from that list.

Add Mike Minor, Jean Segura and Craig Kimbrel who were all top 100 prospects that year and that gives you 12 players performing at an above average level.

Right in line with the 15% figure I have been educating you with.

Show me somebody with knowledge here and trust me, somebody will read them.

And you read and respond often to me.

Guess you were right for a change.

 

[CSF77]

Jim Callis of Baseball America only sees two draftees this year becoming the top prospect in their respective organizations. Third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant had the best power in this year’s draft and even though it’s an extremely close call, Callis ranks him ahead of shortstop Javier Baez and outfielders Albert Almora and Jorge Soler in the Cubs system. He also puts righthander Jonathan Gray over outfielder David Dahl in the Rockies system.