It's time

[CSF77]

I think that you are weighing too much into pitches per AB. Nowadays teams are going into 8 deep BP’s where you are not hurting yourself as much by pulling a starter early.

I would look at it more as is he getting on base near .400 or not. If he is hovering around .330 or lower then he is losing his battles with the pitcher. Near .400 he has been having better quality AB’s.

You could drag a AB out 10 Pitches and pop up. Or hit a single on the 3rd pitch that leads to a run. Which carries more weight into the game result?

 

[CubsFaninMN]

I think that you are weighing too much into pitches per AB. Nowadays teams are going into 8 deep BP’s where you are not hurting yourself as much by pulling a starter early.

I would look at it more as is he getting on base near .400 or not. If he is hovering around .330 or lower then he is losing his battles with the pitcher. Near .400 he has been having better quality AB’s.

You could drag a AB out 10 Pitches and pop up. Or hit a single on the 3rd pitch that leads to a run. Which carries more weight into the game result?

Depends on what team you're facing. An 8-man pen ain't gonna help you deal with early exits from your starters if the other team is just salivating over the prospect of getting past your starter and into your pen. And unlike the top five or six teams out there, a lot of teams have got shit for bullpen pitchers. Especially the long guys -- who on many teams truly are failed starters. Heavy emphasis on the word "failed".

That's why some teams play better against the .500-and-under teams than others. A team like the '17 Cubs, that went deep into counts just to strike out, could get to the opponents' bullpens earlier than most teams, and could wipe the floor with those teams which had relatively poor pens. But face us up against teams where their pens were just as good, overall, as their starters (if not better), and the Cubs struggled.

As Beck says, it's almost always better to get the ball into play -- more good things can happen for you if you put the ball in play than if you strike out. But failing that, against teams with so-so-and-below pens, taking pitchers into long counts (especially starters) helps you, whether you strike out or not. It's only ineffective when there are three or four guys as good or better than that starter just waiting to come in, against whom you'll likely have no better luck...

 

[chibears55]

https://twitter.com/ESPNChiCubs/status/977953609798135808?s=19

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[beckdawg]

I think that you are weighing too much into pitches per AB. Nowadays teams are going into 8 deep BP’s where you are not hurting yourself as much by pulling a starter early.

I would look at it more as is he getting on base near .400 or not. If he is hovering around .330 or lower then he is losing his battles with the pitcher. Near .400 he has been having better quality AB’s.

You could drag a AB out 10 Pitches and pop up. Or hit a single on the 3rd pitch that leads to a run. Which carries more weight into the game result?

If you are facing the cubs would you rather face Hendricks, Lester, Darivsh, Q, Chatwood or would you rather face whomever you believe will be the middle relief? It's really that simple to me. Even great bullpens only have 3 guys that are dominant. And if you're playing an NL team and make them burn those guys when they face you early in the season that can matter in the latter part of the year or in the post season.

Some days pitchers are going to have it going and runs will be hard to come by. But if you are at least making them rack up pitches they may only go 6 innings rather than 7 or 8 and that gives you a chance at someone different in the bullpen. And additionally, I believe that often pitchers will run into a little trouble even if they are going good and that it's that point you have to make him work. The example I bought up is having someone really make him work right before Bryant and Rizzo. If you make a guy show you everything he's got right before your two best hitters that's always a good thing whether or not you get on base.Think of it like this. You are the pitcher and you are having to throw everything but the kitchen sink at someone and you finally get an out and then two MVP candidates are up to bad. That's entirely different if the person in front of you has weak a contact profile. You either walk him or strike him out but you're not really "battling."

I'm a believer that those type of situations matter even more than just straight pitch count because it's one thing to throw something like 60-70 fastballs in a 100 pitch outing. It's another when you force the guy to use his breaking stuff a lot. That's more stress on their arms and they tire more.

 

[beckdawg]

Hendricks' spring line after 4 innings today..... 19.0 IP, 2.37 ERA, 23 K, 2 BB

That'll do.

 

[CSF77]

If you are facing the cubs would you rather face Hendricks, Lester, Darivsh, Q, Chatwood or would you rather face whomever you believe will be the middle relief? It's really that simple to me. Even great bullpens only have 3 guys that are dominant. And if you're playing an NL team and make them burn those guys when they face you early in the season that can matter in the latter part of the year or in the post season.

Some days pitchers are going to have it going and runs will be hard to come by. But if you are at least making them rack up pitches they may only go 6 innings rather than 7 or 8 and that gives you a chance at someone different in the bullpen. And additionally, I believe that often pitchers will run into a little trouble even if they are going good and that it's that point you have to make him work. The example I bought up is having someone really make him work right before Bryant and Rizzo. If you make a guy show you everything he's got right before your two best hitters that's always a good thing whether or not you get on base.Think of it like this. You are the pitcher and you are having to throw everything but the kitchen sink at someone and you finally get an out and then two MVP candidates are up to bad. That's entirely different if the person in front of you has weak a contact profile. You either walk him or strike him out but you're not really "battling."

I'm a believer that those type of situations matter even more than just straight pitch count because it's one thing to throw something like 60-70 fastballs in a 100 pitch outing. It's another when you force the guy to use his breaking stuff a lot. That's more stress on their arms and they tire more.

Right now? Honestly just talking Cubs’ pen they could drop Strop or Duesing. Or if it is to get out of a inning Edwards. It is a live arm that can dial it up.

And yes it depends on the quality of depth going on. Some teams push BP quality over anything else. Royals were built that way where getting to the pen was a disadvantage.

Game is going strange directions now. TB going 4 deep so they can push their pen more in games. LAA going 6. Which means less on the pen. We are in a transition phase right now

 

[beckdawg]

Carrie Muskat
✔
@CarrieMuskat
One other note re: #Cubs Happ: He's full-time OF and hasn't played any 2B this spring. Maddon: "It's not impossible [for him to play 2B] but it's not part of the plan right now short term"

So then I guess if this is the way they are going, you're probably not going to see Zobrist in the OF much at all. Heyward as a full time "starter" played in 126 games last year. If we assume the other 2 starters are at 120 games as well you could throw the 4th guy(likely almora it seems) roughly 40 starts at all 3 positions which would also be 120 games. I hadn't really thought about doing it that way but it makes sense. Schwarber could be your LF. Happ is LF/CF depending on Schwarber/Almora sitting. Almora is CF/RF depending on Heyward sitting and Heyward is RF/emergency CF as needed. Doing that, Heyward had nearly 500 PAs and if all 4 guys get 500-ish PAs I'd be fine with it.

What has me curious is what role Zobrist will have. If they largely stick to the 4 man OF idea outside of like PH situations and injury situations that doesn't leave a lot on the plate for Zobrist. Presumably the only starts La Stella may get are at 3B on Bryant days off. Can't imagine them starting him at 2B assuming everyone stays healthy because presumably that time goes to Zobrist. Joe was pretty full force behind Russell when healthy in 2016. He played 151 games there. My thought would be you just give Russell like 120-130 games at SS with Baez taking 20-30 games there and say 100 at 2B. That would open 30-40 games for Zobrist to play second. And with say 100-150 PAs pinch hitting would put him around 250-300 PAs.

But, I'm worried they will cut Almora playing time for Zobrist frankly.

 

[Hammer]

Just wanna say it, 1-6 lineup consisted of Happ, Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras and Baez has some serious power, probably best in the league as an unit (plus, on the other side, Russell and Heyward give you great defense at SS and RF).

Btw. I'd also like to see as many ABs and starts possible given to Almora and Caratini when resting starters.

 

[chibears55]

So then I guess if this is the way they are going, you're probably not going to see Zobrist in the OF much at all. Heyward as a full time "starter" played in 126 games last year. If we assume the other 2 starters are at 120 games as well you could throw the 4th guy(likely almora it seems) roughly 40 starts at all 3 positions which would also be 120 games. I hadn't really thought about doing it that way but it makes sense. Schwarber could be your LF. Happ is LF/CF depending on Schwarber/Almora sitting. Almora is CF/RF depending on Heyward sitting and Heyward is RF/emergency CF as needed. Doing that, Heyward had nearly 500 PAs and if all 4 guys get 500-ish PAs I'd be fine with it.

What has me curious is what role Zobrist will have. If they largely stick to the 4 man OF idea outside of like PH situations and injury situations that doesn't leave a lot on the plate for Zobrist. Presumably the only starts La Stella may get are at 3B on Bryant days off. Can't imagine them starting him at 2B assuming everyone stays healthy because presumably that time goes to Zobrist. Joe was pretty full force behind Russell when healthy in 2016. He played 151 games there. My thought would be you just give Russell like 120-130 games at SS with Baez taking 20-30 games there and say 100 at 2B. That would open 30-40 games for Zobrist to play second. And with say 100-150 PAs pinch hitting would put him around 250-300 PAs.

But, I'm worried they will cut Almora playing time for Zobrist frankly.

Zobrist role will be what ive been saying and hoping it is...

Just a bench guy used to PH and give occasional rest...
He has been playing 1B this spring, so he may just be the guy to give Baez/Russell a day off vs. some RHers and Rizzo a day off vs. some LHers...

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[beckdawg]

Zobrist role will be what ive been saying and hoping it is...

Just a bench guy used to PH and give occasional rest...
He has been playing 1B this spring, so he may just be the guy to give Baez/Russell a day off vs. some RHers and Rizzo a day off vs. some LHers...

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I mean I hope you're right but I don't entirely trust Maddon to do that.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

It's been widely reported that Zobrist asked Maddon if he could be the starting second baseman this year, as opposed to fill-in utility guy with a lot of OF and PH appearances.

It sort of has to make you wonder where Zo's head is at. He obviously still sees himself as a superior choice starting at 2B over anybody else. And, to be fair, I would want to think I would feel that way if I were in his shoes. I just hope he can accept the more limited role he's likely to be seeing this year.

And after all, there is a classic method of capturing a starting job -- play so well they don't dare bench you..

 

[CSF77]

I see Almora’s role as PH/ late inning D upgrade with starts vs righties.

 

[chibears55]

Sorry but watching Cubs and Redsox game tonight..

Heyward looks awful up there..
He looks like he upper cutting his swings hoping to hit the ball..

46 AB .174 Avg 14 Ks

He wasnt making all that money he'd be starting the season in Iowa or at least on the bench..

Bryant said every guy in lineup could hit 25 HRs, he must be spotting Heyward 15..

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[beckdawg]

Sorry but watching Cubs and Redsox game tonight..

Heyward looks awful up there..
He looks like he upper cutting his swings hoping to hit the ball..

46 AB .174 Avg 14 Ks

He wasnt making all that money he'd be starting the season in Iowa or at least on the bench..

Bryant said every guy in lineup could hit 25 HRs, he must be spotting Heyward 15..

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You're beating a dead horse mate.

 

[chibears55]

You're beating a dead horse mate.

I know, he just aggravates me.....



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[beckdawg]

I know, he just aggravates me.....



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It is what is. That's the way I look at it. Honestly if he's just what he was last year I'm fine with him. I'd like there to be more certainly but as I've said before i don't think he was all that bad last year. One thing I haven't really mentioned that I have been thinking about is I feel like the cubs not stealing bases has hurt him a bit value wise. I don't know for certain that is a org. decision. It could just be him getting older but they don't run much as a team and that was one of the better aspects of him before he signed. He was always a good(not great) base runner.

Regardless, at this point you're playing either him, Almora or Zobrist in RF. Think you take his glove and hope he comes around.

Also unrelated to the above comments, saw someone on twitter mention an interesting thing regarding Darvish and his new use of the pause in his leg during delivery. My initial thought was he'd just worked out with Kershaw who will do it to throw people off. But someone else mentioned it might be a good way to stop him from tipping pitches some.

 

[chibears55]

It is what is. That's the way I look at it. Honestly if he's just what he was last year I'm fine with him. I'd like there to be more certainly but as I've said before i don't think he was all that bad last year. One thing I haven't really mentioned that I have been thinking about is I feel like the cubs not stealing bases has hurt him a bit value wise. I don't know for certain that is a org. decision. It could just be him getting older but they don't run much as a team and that was one of the better aspects of him before he signed. He was always a good(not great) base runner.

Regardless, at this point you're playing either him, Almora or Zobrist in RF. Think you take his glove and hope he comes around.

Also unrelated to the above comments, saw someone on twitter mention an interesting thing regarding Darvish and his new use of the pause in his leg during delivery. My initial thought was he'd just worked out with Kershaw who will do it to throw people off. But someone else mentioned it might be a good way to stop him from tipping pitches some.

I saw that with Darvish too, he did it tonight and threw a slider and made the hitter look silly with the swing...

He definately should be fun to watch all year..



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[CSF77]

Projected Opening Day lineup

1. Ian Happ, CF
2. Kris Bryant, 3B
3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
4. Willson Contreras, C
5. Kyle Schwarber, LF
6. Addison Russell, SS
7. Jason Heyward, RF
8. Javier Baez, 2B
9. Jon Lester, P

 

[beckdawg]

Projected Opening Day lineup

1. Ian Happ, CF
2. Kris Bryant, 3B
3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
4. Willson Contreras, C
5. Kyle Schwarber, LF
6. Addison Russell, SS
7. Jason Heyward, RF
8. Javier Baez, 2B
9. Jon Lester, P

I think Maddon will bat Schwarber 2nd. 325 of his career 764 PAs have come out of the 2 hole(42.5%). 181 PAs have come batting first(23.7%). Only 114 have come out of the 5 hole(14.9%). Given 2/3's of his PAs have come out of the 1 or 2 hole I think it's safe to assume Maddon likes him at the top of the line up. So, assuming Happ bats lead off think you push Bryant, Rizzo and Contreras down a slot and probably flip Heyward and russell as he likes to keep to the R/L/R style in the line up.

 

[Iceman2385]

Projected Opening Day lineup

1. Ian Happ, CF
2. Kris Bryant, 3B
3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
4. Willson Contreras, C
5. Kyle Schwarber, LF
6. Addison Russell, SS
7. Jason Heyward, RF
8. Javier Baez, 2B
9. Jon Lester, P

I think that will be r opening day lineup. Personally I like Zobrist in there instead of Baez or JHey, preferably JHey. Taking JHey out w Happ in CF and Scwarbs worries me w outfield defense tho lol. If u had Almora in CF, Zobs in Right and Scwarbs in LF doesn’t feel as bad. I also think Happ will strike out too much to be r leadoff hitter, could be wrong, but I’m not sold on him yet. I’d rather have Zobs leadoff, maybe use Almora there against lefties.

1. Zobs RF
2. KB
3. Rizz
4. Willy
5. Scwarbs
6. Addy SS
7. Happ CF
8. Baez 2nd base

Maybe that could be r lineup if JHey struggles this year? Scwarbs and Happ would need to show defense improvement for that lineup to really be possible tho.