J Freeman is better than Luke Kuechley

FirstTimer

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So, naturally, the question arises...or has arisen 58 times already...what makes you think Amos is comparable to Harrison Smith?

He already has admitted he didn't watch Amos play enough to evaluate him..................
 

remydat

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So, naturally, the question arises...or has arisen 58 times already...what makes you think Amos is comparable to Harrison Smith?

The point was Smith has the same lack of interceptions and PDs as Amos so it was an example of why I like to look at PFF to see how they have guys graded.

You have no mechanism based on the stats you are presenting to claim Smith had a great year in pass defense. You are just going off of reputation and the fact that as a team they had good passing stats overall.

That's not empirical data at all as it relates to Smith specifically. It's an assumption as if you are a Pro Bowl voter who just votes people in based on the fact they had good years in the past and played on

So I am not saying Smith and Amos are definitely comparable just as I'm not saying Freeman and Luke are definitely comparable. I'm saying their traditional stats aren't really all that far apart and it seems like people are just making assumptions that someone is much better based on past performance.
 

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The point was Smith has the same lack of interceptions and PDs as Amos so it was an example of why I like to look at PFF to see how they have guys graded.

Did you watch Harrison Smith play football in 2016?
 

remydat

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Did you watch Harrison Smith play football in 2016?

I watched him play whenever he played the Bears and a few other times when flipping through games over the course of the season. Not sure your point as I've already said I don't watch any of these guys close enough going through the tape to claim to have a comprehensive knowledge of how they performed in a given season. That's precisely why I think PFF is useful to look at in conjunction with the other stats since they do watch every play.

Now I am sure you are going to tell me you watch a ton of tape and you know how great Smith was in 2016 to which I say, I have no proof of them except your word. That doesn't carry any weight in an argument that Rory is alleging is based on empirical data.

There was a time when the traditional stats backed up how great Smith was. That time was like 2 or 3 year ago.
 

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I watched him play whenever he played the Bears
So twice.

Got it.

You don't watch these guys enough to form opinions of your own but watch them enough to defend 3rd party opinions and the methodology of those opinions.

:aj:

Unbelievable.
 

remydat

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So twice.

Got it.

You don't watch these guys enough to form opinions of your own but watch them enough to defend 3rd party opinions and the methodology of those opinions.

:aj:

Unbelievable.

I know those 3rd parties watch every play and I don't think you or Rory watch enough of the games either. So I am defending the fact that 2 guys that seem to be making conclusions based on past performance are complaining about a service who review every play.

Or are you going to claim you watched all of Smith's snaps this year?
 

remydat

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Wouldn't the overall effectiveness of a defense and past performance of a player be more telling of an individual player's talents as opposed to reading PFF giving Harrison Smith an "81" while Adrian Amos receives an "80"? For instance, do you really need PFF to tell you that Minnesota's CBs are better than Chicago's CBs...couldn't you just look at the pass defense statistics and draw that conclusion based on the empirical data?

I guess my issue is that I look at empirical data and draw conclusions...you have your conclusions drawn for you by PFF. Yet here we are on Page 14, and you still have yet to contribute a single cogent thought.

When that past performance includes years where he had a decent amount of Interceptions and pass deflections and current performance shows he had 0 interceptions and 2 passes defensed then no I would no rely on it.

This would be like saying if a QB had 30 TDs one year and 7 TDs the next year, we should just assume he's still playing at the same level.

Again all you are doing is making assumptions and claiming you have empirical data that proves something it doesn't. You can't honestly say you watched enough of Smith to prove that his 0 Ints and 2 PDs don't tell the story that he was still a top S this year. That's horseshit particularly when that team has a great pass rush and other good players in the secondary.
 

remydat

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Wouldn't the overall effectiveness of a defense and past performance of a player be more telling of an individual player's talents as opposed to reading PFF giving Harrison Smith an "81" while Adrian Amos receives an "80"? For instance, do you really need PFF to tell you that Minnesota's CBs are better than Chicago's CBs...couldn't you just look at the pass defense statistics and draw that conclusion based on the empirical data?

I guess my issue is that I look at empirical data and draw conclusions...you have your conclusions drawn for you by PFF. Yet here we are on Page 14, and you still have yet to contribute a single cogent thought.

When that past performance includes years where he had a decent amount of Interceptions and pass deflections and current performance shows he had 0 interceptions and 2 passes defensed then no I would not rely on it.

This would be like saying if a QB had 30 TDs one year and 7 TDs the next year, we should just assume he's still playing at the same level.

Again all you are doing is making assumptions and claiming you have empirical data that proves something it doesn't. You can't honestly say you watched enough of Smith to prove that his 0 Ints and 2 PDs don't tell the story that he was still a top S this year. That's horseshit particularly when that team has a great pass rush and other good players in the secondary.
 

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Better, worse or interchangeable?

Pro Football Focus or Pro Football Reference
Stats or grades or statsgrades
Cheese heads or head cheese
 

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Better, worse or interchangeable?

Pro Football Focus <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Pro Football Reference
Stats or grades >>>>>>>>>>>>>> statsgrades
Cheese heads <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< head cheese

....
 

remydat

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No you don't.

yes.

I do because they say they do and I trust their claims to watching all the snaps more than I trust yours. Theirs is backed up by the fact they have investors and clients that pay them from their service and there would be repercussions to them lying. You are just some guy on the internet with Rory as your reference.
 

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How many pages before the server goes down?
 

remydat

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But that's not what I asked. I asked you "Wouldn't the overall effectiveness of a defense and past performance of a player be more telling of an individual player's talents as opposed to reading PFF giving Harrison Smith an "81" while Adrian Amos receives an "80"?"

And I told you no it wouldn't in this specific instance for the reasons I stated. Past performance has no bearing on current performance because players can have up and down years. Smith's traditional stats suggests he's had a couple of down years in the passing game. It's not like a pass defense or int gets added to Smith's 2016 totals because he had a great rookie year. The numbers are what they are regardless of what you did last year.

And team performance doesn't prove a specific player is good when there are numerous instances of a good team D having average or bad players at position or two or instances where a bad team D has some good players that suffer statistically because the rest of the players suck.

There may be instances where what you are saying holds true but Smith is not one of them. His traditional stats in the pass game pretty much suck and aren't indicative of the numbers he put up in the past. His team passing D was great but the one area they seemed to be comparable to the Bears is the one area you would think he would be responsible for.

So in this instance I would consider his PFF grade a better reflection than past performance or the team D. There may be another example where I wouldn't because their traditional stats are more reflective of their actual performance.
 

remydat

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But you didn't state why the PFF grade would be more telling of an individual player's talents...you just listed the problems with using team stats and past performance. Perhaps you didn't understand my question, so I will ask again:

Wouldn't the overall effectiveness of a defense and past performance of a player be more telling of an individual player's talents as opposed to reading PFF giving Harrison Smith an "81" while Adrian Amos receives an "80"?

It would be more telling to me because someone sat down and reviewed every single play he was involved in and then came up with a grade that was reviewed by a professional coach.

In the context where said player has great traditional stats, I probably don't really care all that much about it. In the context of a guy that was a Pro Bowl talent whose numbers have dropped off in the passing game, I would check PFF to see if they also are saying his performance in the passing game has dropped or if they are seeing something different.

If PFF and the traditional stats are aligned then don't give a fuck. If there are anomalies then I might look into it more. Just like when Willie Young signed with the Bears, the traditional stats had Willie Young as not that great a pass rusher. PFF had Young getting a lot of pressure on the QB despite the lack of sacks. So it was something that piqued my interest when I saw it and subsequent to that, Young has had career highs in sacks which indicate that perhaps PFF saw something in Young that wasn't reflective in the traditional sack totals.

So I am not sure what confuses you about this. I like to look at PFF when it appears the traditional stats aren't telling me the whole story. I particularly like to look at them on the Bears because we suck at so many positions, it's quite easy to miss whether someone appearing to suck is due to the fact the overall team sucks or whether it's because they suck individually.

If for example, Amos ends up starting and performing well now that he's got competent CBs and a competent S next to him then I would consider his lack of impact stats a reflection of the shit he's been playing with the past few years. If he fades into the background or is cut then it would be an indication that whatever PFF saw was a bit of a mirage. Time will eventually reveal the truth IMO.

As it's a subjective grade, there will be times when PFF is proven wrong and times where they are proven correct as I know of no one who always gets their subjective opinions right.
 

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Oh cool. remy is still defending methodology of grading that he can't back up and of players he doesn't watch. Cool story.
 

remydat

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Oh cool. remy is still defending methodology of grading that he can't back up and of players he doesn't watch. Cool story.

Oh cool, FT is still being Rory's squire. Cool story.
 

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