Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel traded to Oakland Athletics for Addison Russell plus

[Derkach77]

I do.

You're overrating this Cubs team.

We'll see.

 

[FirstTimer]

I guess I'm one of those people that while the farm system is much better than it was 3 years ago, and it is imperative to building a successful MLB club I won't really recognize or give credit to having "x" top 100 prospects etc. :shrug:

I would think as a big market team and seeing what big markets with strong minor league systems under Theo have done I'd be enthusiastic about history repeating itself and seeing trends.

I'm not arguing, nor should anyone be, that it's foregone conclusion for success, but I'd rather have a highly ranked minor league system than not and I'd rather(in context of where the Cubs came from) have that system in place for when the teams starts to spend bigger money.

 

[nwfisch]

I would think as a big market team and seeing what big markets with strong minor league systems under Theo have done I'd be enthusiastic about history repeating itself and seeing trends.

I'm not arguing, nor should anyone be, that it's foregone conclusion for success, but I'd rather have a highly ranked minor league system than not and I'd rather(in context of where the Cubs came from) have that system in place for when the teams starts to spend bigger money.

There are people that are doing that, that believe that 4-5 years of losing and misery will result in this being the "right way."

I'm still leery now, we'll see once all of the impact players arrive at Clark and Addison.

 

[FirstTimer]

There are people that are doing that, that believe that 4-5 years of losing and misery will result in this being the "right way."

I'm still leery now, we'll see once all of the impact players arrive at Clark and Addison.

IMO losing records now are irrelevant to the future success of the team. Because the Cubs sucked in 2011-2013 with a bunch of guys that won't be on the roster in 2015 means nothing for the performance of the 2015. They are independent of each other.

 

[Diehardfan]

Having a strong minor league system is all fine and dandy but until they come up and prove they are actual major league players.....they are just "prospects". And being a prospect means that player is a roll of the dice as what he'll develop into. There's been a shitload of "can't miss kids" that invariably turned into useless ball players on the major league level. So when you get one that actually develops into a player, you might think about retaining that player just so all the time and money invested in him doesn't move along with him to another team. So getting back to the what this thread was originally about....I think they'd be wise to pay the man and let him lead that pitching staff.

 

[beckdawg]

So far the Cubs have Rizzo, Castro, and maybe Castillo and Lake that will be around when this team starts competing.

Yep. That's a lot of building done at the major league level in three years.

3 of those guys were here when management arrived.

Until Bryant, Almora, et. al get to the MLB level, the MLB team isn't built. There is a difference between building a farm system and building the MLB ballclub.

And the point you're missing is what assets did they have to build with? Few if any of the guys they had in AA/AAA are ever going to have MLB careers. So, how are you suppose to build? The fabled "spend more money" argument of course. Except the fact that another $60 mil buys you what? 4-5 average or better players or 2-3 stars? That doesn't fix the roster. It is a band aid on a head shot wound. Would the be more competitive? Sure. Does it make them a contender for a title? No.

As for what they've built that might be around when they team is competitive. You've conveniently left out Arrieta and Wood. Now maybe they are traded before then. I'll be the first to admit it's possible. But until that point they are under consideration. They've also added Grimm, Ramirez, Strop, and Wright to the bullpen all of whom could be long term pieces. They've added Valbuena who could easily be a solid bench piece on the team going forward. Again, maybe they traded him maybe not.

Those pieces aren't sexy. However, it's shit you have to have to compete. Mike Trout is arguably the best player in the game and maybe one of the best in history. Players like him never end up as FA. The angels have also thrown a shit load of money around the past 2-3 years into FAs. They've also missed the playoffs the past 4 years. This year they are 6 games back in the west and teetering on the edge of WC right now. Why? They had below average play at SS last season. They had below average play at 3B. They had below average play at LF. The rest of the positions minus Trout were average to slightly above. They had 2 of their 5 starters as above average players. And finally they had a below average bullpen.

Valbuena last year was an average MLB player and is on pace for a better season this year. Wood was an above average player last year and is on pace for at least average this year. Arrieta is on pace for an above average year. And finally the cubs bullpen has been above average. These are all small pieces but pieces none the less. If the angels with the best player in the game and having spent $18.5 mil, $149.5 mil, and $330.5 mil the past 3 years aren't a playoff team what hope do the cubs have with a substantially smaller payroll by spending money? The Angels have done essentially what you're suggesting should make the cubs competitive and they have Trout and may miss the playoffs for the third straight year with an MVP caliber player.

In other words, this shit isn't basketball. 1 or 2 players don't make you a title contender. You build a team of players not a couple of stars. And in the case of the cubs they didn't have the players in the minors to build that team so they've been trying to acquire them. Additionally, by being shit they've also secured high round picks which may add the stars they need. So as I said before, yes they've built talent in the majors you just don't see it that way because they aren't stars.

 

[Derkach77]

And the point you're missing is what assets did they have to build with? Few if any of the guys they had in AA/AAA are ever going to have MLB careers. So, how are you suppose to build? The fabled "spend more money" argument of course. Except the fact that another $60 mil buys you what? 4-5 average or better players or 2-3 stars? That doesn't fix the roster. It is a band aid on a head shot wound. Would the be more competitive? Sure. Does it make them a contender for a title? No.

As for what they've built that might be around when they team is competitive. You've conveniently left out Arrieta and Wood. Now maybe they are traded before then. I'll be the first to admit it's possible. But until that point they are under consideration. They've also added Grimm, Ramirez, Strop, and Wright to the bullpen all of whom could be long term pieces. They've added Valbuena who could easily be a solid bench piece on the team going forward. Again, maybe they traded him maybe not.

Those pieces aren't sexy. However, it's shit you have to have to compete. Mike Trout is arguably the best player in the game and maybe one of the best in history. Players like him never end up as FA. The angels have also thrown a shit load of money around the past 2-3 years into FAs. They've also missed the playoffs the past 4 years. This year they are 6 games back in the west and teetering on the edge of WC right now. Why? They had below average play at SS last season. They had below average play at 3B. They had below average play at LF. The rest of the positions minus Trout were average to slightly above. They had 2 of their 5 starters as above average players. And finally they had a below average bullpen.

Valbuena last year was an average MLB player and is on pace for a better season this year. Wood was an above average player last year and is on pace for at least average this year. Arrieta is on pace for an above average year. And finally the cubs bullpen has been above average. These are all small pieces but pieces none the less. If the angels with the best player in the game and having spent $18.5 mil, $149.5 mil, and $330.5 mil the past 3 years aren't a playoff team what hope do the cubs have with a substantially smaller payroll by spending money? The Angels have done essentially what you're suggesting should make the cubs competitive and they have Trout and may miss the playoffs for the third straight year with an MVP caliber player.

In other words, this shit isn't basketball. 1 or 2 players don't make you a title contender. You build a team of players not a couple of stars. And in the case of the cubs they didn't have the players in the minors to build that team so they've been trying to acquire them. Additionally, by being shit they've also secured high round picks which may add the stars they need. So as I said before, yes they've built talent in the majors you just don't see it that way because they aren't stars.

I think you and I have very similar beliefs. I think people look way to deep into things though. As I said earlier it's plain and simple. "We" are not far away from contending. A few call ups and FA signings and you got yourself a playoff team here. Wild card for sure imo. I am very optimistic about 2015. They will be in position to compete because they will have some guys ready like Baez and Bryant and also will have cap space to sign a FA or two. There are some pitchers who can really help us as well. Although the bullpen has been solid they can use some help.

 

[WindyCity]

I think that Shark just wants to leave at this point.

I cannot blame him, he has been here for the ugly rebuild and if he wants to move on we should attempt to trade rape someone and get him somewhere where he wants to be.

This may not be a money issue, it may also have to do with his desire to continue to be a Cub.

 

[Boobaby1]

I think you and I have very similar beliefs. I think people look way to deep into things though. As I said earlier it's plain and simple. "We" are not far away from contending. A few call ups and FA signings and you got yourself a playoff team here. Wild card for sure imo. I am very optimistic about 2015. They will be in position to compete because they will have some guys ready like Baez and Bryant and also will have cap space to sign a FA or two. There are some pitchers who can really help us as well. Although the bullpen has been solid they can use some help.

You can be optimistic all you want (which is perfectly fine), but you need to factor a couple of things.

First off, to compete, you need pieces in place. You can't trot out Castro, Rizzo, and Shark and then lose 1/3rd of that with no back-up plan in place to replace it immediately. By that, you are taking a step backwards or at best making somewhat of a lateral move.

Second, to assume that Baez and Bryant are going to come up and immediately have success has great odds stacked against it. They will need probably a couple of years like Rizzo to iron out issues.

The best thing to do in this off-season IMO is to spend money and position themselves where whomever they get, that they don't block anybody. Those positions probably include every outfield position, 3B, 2B, and pitching. Bryant, Baez, and Alcantara could man 3 of those, but that still leaves two open, and some much needed pitching.

If they feel Baez can man 3B or 2B, Alcantara at CF or 2B, and Bryant at 3B or in RF, then they could maintain Valbuena and Bonafacio as insurance and go get a bona fide veteran LF'er and some pitching, plus having presumably a good haul for Shark thrown into the system. Viscaino and Rivera could also join the pen.

And before anyone goes on about the LF'er, you can forget about Lake because he is not an answer for that position in the future.

 

[FirstTimer]

I don't mind Lake as a CF with absurd range like what the Royals have in Lorenzo Cain. But Lake needs to improve on defense a bit. If he can be a 1-2 win player in dWAR and then on offense be somewhere around replacement level that's respectable enough but he's got to be doing it in CF. As a corner OF'er he'd be a big value drain.

 

[Captain Obvious]

It's ok. CO is still pissy that in 2012 ESPN pretty much nailed the fact that Altuve>Barney, Alvarez>Stewart, and most of the NLC LF's>Soriano.

Yup.

You can be optimistic all you want (which is perfectly fine), but you need to factor a couple of things.

First off, to compete, you need pieces in place. You can't trot out Castro, Rizzo, and Shark and then lose 1/3rd of that with no back-up plan in place to replace it immediately. By that, you are taking a step backwards or at best making somewhat of a lateral move.

Second, to assume that Baez and Bryant are going to come up and immediately have success has great odds stacked against it. They will need probably a couple of years like Rizzo to iron out issues.

The best thing to do in this off-season IMO is to spend money and position themselves where whomever they get, that they don't block anybody. Those positions probably include every outfield position, 3B, 2B, and pitching. Bryant, Baez, and Alcantara could man 3 of those, but that still leaves two open, and some much needed pitching.

If they feel Baez can man 3B or 2B, Alcantara at CF or 2B, and Bryant at 3B or in RF, then they could maintain Valbuena and Bonafacio as insurance and go get a bona fide veteran LF'er and some pitching, plus having presumably a good haul for Shark thrown into the system. Viscaino and Rivera could also join the pen.

And before anyone goes on about the LF'er, you can forget about Lake because he is not an answer for that position in the future.

We can forget about Lake because you say so? Or because he is 24 and has time to develop?

 

[beckdawg]

Yup.

We can forget about Lake because you say so? Or because he is 24 and has time to develop?

I think what Boo is trying to say is Lake isn't a future starter. I do however like his chances of being a better player than Soriano this year which I argued prior to the season was a decent possibility. Lake's hitting .236/.265/.429 with 9 homers in 224 PAa. Soriano's hitting .229/.253/.390 with 6 homers in 217 PAs. At this point in the season I think it's fair to say trading Soriano was the right move without a shadow of a doubt. Lake's not doing much to earn the spot but thankfully Soriano is doing even less. $4 mil saved along with Black who's had a 3.25 ERA in AA? I'll take that though admittedly Black likely wont be a starter if he doesn't figure out some command. 5.20 bb/9 is pretty atrocious but 9.76 k/9 is quite good.

 

[beckdawg]

Here's some more Shark rumors on cubs den
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2014/06/trade-rumors-danny-duffy-to-the-cubs/

Gist of it is Danny Duffy is a possibility in a Royal trade, Atlanta and Rockies appear to be out, and while the rockies may be out on Hammel and Shark they perhaps might be in on Arrieta,

 

[chibears55]

Here's some more Shark rumors on cubs den
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2014/06/trade-rumors-danny-duffy-to-the-cubs/

Gist of it is Danny Duffy is a possibility in a Royal trade, Atlanta and Rockies appear to be out, and while the rockies may be out on Hammel and Shark they perhaps might be in on Arrieta,

jake arrieta is 28, he what the cubs want, he could be a part of this rotation for the next 8 yrs. he not going anywhere..

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[beckdawg]

jake arrieta is 28, he what the cubs want, he could be a part of this rotation for the next 8 yrs. he not going anywhere..

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Meanwhile, the Denver Post's Patrick Saunders reports that the Rockies have not decided whether they will be buyers or sellers at the deadline. Whatever they end up doing, however, they are not interested in either one of the Cub pitchers. This is pure speculation, but given Jake Arrieta's extreme ground ball splits this year, could the Rockies be the team willing to part with two impact players to acquire him?

Shark is 29 and he is going some where.... just sayin. Additionally, Arrieta is 3.5 years from FA. If someone is willing to give up 2 impact players for him why wouldn't the cubs trade him? They go into links discussing why a team would do that but you can read those yourself.

 

[chibears55]

Shark is 29 and he is going some where.... just sayin. Additionally, Arrieta is 3.5 years from FA. If someone is willing to give up 2 impact players for him why wouldn't the cubs trade him? They go into links discussing why a team would do that but you can read those yourself.

first.. shark looking for 20+ mil per for the next 5-6 yrs..
arrieta is at 500,000 now and team control next 3 yrs.

I dont know about a team willing to give up 2 impact players for him now, plus if their that much of an impact player(s) wouldn't they rather keep them over arrieta..

if im the cubs, id much rather keep the 28 yo established starter that cheap and controlled for the next 3 yrs over 2 prospects that you hope at least 1 turns out as good as Arrieta. ..

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[beckdawg]

first.. shark looking for 20+ mil per for the next 5-6 yrs..
arrieta is at 500,000 now and team control next 3 yrs.

I dont know about a team willing to give up 2 impact players for him now, plus if their that much of an impact player(s) wouldn't they rather keep them over arrieta..

if im the cubs, id much rather keep the 28 yo established starter that cheap and controlled for the next 3 yrs over 2 prospects that you hope at least 1 turns out as good as Arrieta. ..

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I can see that point of view but you have to remember that Arrieta has also long had control issues. His career rate is 3.88 bb/9 and this year he's at 2.70. You can make the argument that he's changed something but there are other worrisome aspects as well. His 83.9% strand rate is high for anyone not just him. His career rate is 68.8% and to put that 84% rate into perspective, Clayton Kershaw has a career 77.8% rate. Additionally, his HR/FB rate is 5.9% vs his career 11.7%. His groundball rate is up but even someone like Felix Hernandez who's got a similar career mark to what he's putting up this year is around 10% HR/FB.

I'm not trying to talk down his season but similar to Wood last year there's reason to believe it's not sustainable. Last year Wood's BABIP as really low comparatively as well as having a lower BB/9 and HR/FB than career averages. If someone is willing to buy Arrieta's season as the real deal it's probably worth consideration. The thing is it's often not hard to find 4/5 starters which most would have assumed him to be prior to the season. So, if someone's going to pay you like he's a 2 starter you should arguably take it.

 

[chibears55]

I can see that point of view but you have to remember that Arrieta has also long had control issues. His career rate is 3.88 bb/9 and this year he's at 2.70. You can make the argument that he's changed something but there are other worrisome aspects as well. His 83.9% strand rate is high for anyone not just him. His career rate is 68.8% and to put that 84% rate into perspective, Clayton Kershaw has a career 77.8% rate. Additionally, his HR/FB rate is 5.9% vs his career 11.7%. His groundball rate is up but even someone like Felix Hernandez who's got a similar career mark to what he's putting up this year is around 10% HR/FB.

I'm not trying to talk down his season but similar to Wood last year there's reason to believe it's not sustainable. Last year Wood's BABIP as really low comparatively as well as having a lower BB/9 and HR/FB than career averages. If someone is willing to buy Arrieta's season as the real deal it's probably worth consideration. The thing is it's often not hard to find 4/5 starters which most would have assumed him to be prior to the season. So, if someone's going to pay you like he's a 2 starter you should arguably take it.

that the thing, arrieta could end up being anywhere between a 3-5 so why would a team give up a top impact prospect for him ?

even if your talking a playoff contender looking for another starter for back end to make a run, im sure they can find one just as good as him at a lesser cost in return.

I guess anything possible, I just think if their trading both hammel and samardzija its highly unlikely they also move arrieta unless between the 3 trades they get back 3-4 starters that could fit right into the rotation by 2015.

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[beckdawg]

that the thing, arrieta could end up being anywhere between a 3-5 so why would a team give up a top impact prospect for him ?

even if your talking a playoff contender looking for another starter for back end to make a run, im sure they can find one just as good as him at a lesser cost in return.

I guess anything possible, I just think if their trading both hammel and samardzija its highly unlikely they also move arrieta unless between the 3 trades they get back 3-4 starters that could fit right into the rotation by 2015.

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Well I'm not saying I would give that up for him and quite the opposite in fact. However, that's what cubs den is suggesting might be out there based on things they've heard from sources. As to why a team would do it, if a team doesn't have the ammo for Shark and Price and craps out landing Hammel what then? Let's put it this way, if you're a team like the Royals or the Pirates would you rather give up two impact players for Hammel or Arrieta? Both have pitched well enough this year to warrant that sort of consideration and Arrieta has multiple years of control. So, even if you don't believe he's as good as Hammel, he's got the longevity rather than being a one year piece.

I could easily see why a team would want Arreita over Hammel and I think the way Hammel has pitched he could return something slightly less than Garza.

 

[chibears55]

@BleacherNation: The Blue Jays' Director of Pro Scouting is Reportedly Watching Jeff Samardzija Tonight http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/...-reportedly-watching-jeff-samardzija-tonight/ #Cubs

Have to think if a team really wants samardzija, their gonna make their best offer sooner rather then later to get those extra starts out of him..

With that in mind this start or the next could be his last as a cub