Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel traded to Oakland Athletics for Addison Russell plus

[Sunbiz1]

This was the worst move since trading away Greg Maddux.

The only thing they did right was making sure Shark was in the AL, so he wouldn't kill the Cubs for the next decade.

 

[beckdawg]

Great......based on everything you've said they are still 4 years away from being close to having a real team that can compete.

Awesome.

In case you hadn't noticed since a dreadful April I think they are .500. Granted that's with Hammel and Shark who are now gone. However, that's also without the addition of any of their top prospects at least 3 of whom are in AAA mostly ready. .500 may not be "competitive" but it's not that far away especially as you start to see help via hopefully impact prospects.

The real question is how far do they fall off without Shark and Hammel. Pessimist would suggest the world will crumble. However, I personally think Straily compares favorably to pre-trade Arreita and Wood and after some work with Bosio he might seem a similar improvement. At the very least, he can be what we thought Hammel was before the season. The fall off from Shark is the bigger worry. I personally think Hendricks is greatly underrated and think he will be pretty good(maybe decent #3). I'm not sure he gets the first call up though. It's probably going to be Beeler or Wada with my money being on Wada.

For the sake of argument, let's say whomever they put in for Shark ends up pitching like Wood this year. I think they can still be a .500 team with that the rest of the year especially if they call up Alcantara before the end of the season to give them a little more offense. At that point are they really that much worse off? You were losing Hammel in the offseason anyways and you have $50+ mil in payroll to go into that $110 mil range they were in 2012-13. They have the money to go after someone like Scherzer. I don't know if they will get him because there's other considerations(how close are they to winning?) but the fact remains they have at least a shot at getting pretty much any pitcher they want on the market with several being of a similar level to what Shark has been.

 

[BearsWillWin]

In case you hadn't noticed since a dreadful April I think they are .500. Granted that's with Hammel and Shark who are now gone. However, that's also without the addition of any of their top prospects at least 3 of whom are in AAA mostly ready. .500 may not be "competitive" but it's not that far away especially as you start to see help via hopefully impact prospects.

The real question is how far do they fall off without Shark and Hammel. Pessimist would suggest the world will crumble. However, I personally think Straily compares favorably to pre-trade Arreita and Wood and after some work with Bosio he might seem a similar improvement. At the very least, he can be what we thought Hammel was before the season. The fall off from Shark is the bigger worry. I personally think Hendricks is greatly underrated and think he will be pretty good(maybe decent #3). I'm not sure he gets the first call up though. It's probably going to be Beeler or Wada with my money being on Wada.

For the sake of argument, let's say whomever they put in for Shark ends up pitching like Wood this year. I think they can still be a .500 team with that the rest of the year especially if they call up Alcantara before the end of the season to give them a little more offense. At that point are they really that much worse off? You were losing Hammel in the offseason anyways and you have $50+ mil in payroll to go into that $110 mil range they were in 2012-13. They have the money to go after someone like Scherzer. I don't know if they will get him because there's other considerations(how close are they to winning?) but the fact remains they have at least a shot at getting pretty much any pitcher they want on the market with several being of a similar level to what Shark has been.

Being .500 since April has been just good enough to keep them............in last place.

Who cares about fall off right now? You can do worse than last, can you?

Basically right now if you want to see a team that can actually compete you need to pray a healthy percentage of prospects pan out and some pitchers start emerging from Theo's ass.

I'll get optimistic when all these "top" prospects do something at the major league level.

 

[chibears55]

@Ken_Rosenthal: Sources: #Yankees exchanged proposals with #Cubs on both Samardzija, Hammel. #Athletics had piece that could trump all - Russell.

 

[beckdawg]

You missed a lot of posts in the past nine months. Cub fans thought they'd get two pitchers in the top 30 plus some for Shark

Would you agree not all top five prospects are the same?

I don't think anyone said two top 30. I was probably the most optimistic and I said two top 50. And while that's not what they got, I'd argue a top 15 player is easily worth 2 players from 15-50. I frankly thought they had little shot at a top 15 player after the DBack rumors faded. I thought Towers might have got desperate to keep his job and have done something stupid like trading Bradley. I was wrong but he did trade Skaggs who was the second name I tied to that particular deal.

The example I used previously is would anyone trade Baez or Bryant for 3(an additional one for Hammel) of the Red Sox top 50 guys in Henry Owens, Blake Swihart, Allen Webster, Mookie Betts, and Garin Cecchini? I get many don't follow prospects quite the way I do but if we go back to 2011 an look at 15-50 you're talking about these guys Jake Odorizzi, Jarrod Parker, Anthony Rizzo, Mike Montgomery, Devin Mesoraco, Wilin Rosario, Dellin Betances, Nick Franklin, Aaron Hicks, Carlos Martinez, Drew Pomeranz, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Gibson, Brett Jackson, Yonder Alonso, Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Christian Friedrich, Gary Sanchez, Matt Dominguez, Miguel Sano, Guillermo Pimentel, Chris Archer, Wilmer Flores, Jose Iglesias, Tanner Scheppers, John Lamb, Tyler Matzek, Gary Brown, Matt Harvey, Arodys Vizcaino, Travis d'Arnaud, Hak-Ju Lee, Robbie Erlin, and Taijuan Walker

Would you rather have 3 of those or one of Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller, Jesus Montero, Jacob Turner, Martin Perez, Jameson Taillon, Jameson Taillon, Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar, Tyler Skaggs, Manny Banuelos, Casey Kelly, and Wil Myers? While you could argue, had you chosen Rizo, Harvey, and Zack Wheeler you'd likely rather quantity but I'd counter with Mike Trout. Just sayin' The back half of that 15 is kind of sketchy admittedly but that's where you start fading into the difference between *elite* and 60 rating types. If Russell ends up being as good as Trout, Harper, Moore, Teheran or Miller people will be thrilled.

 

[beckdawg]

Being .500 since April has been just good enough to keep them............in last place.

Who cares about fall off right now? You can do worse than last, can you?

Basically right now if you want to see a team that can actually compete you need to pray a healthy percentage of prospects pan out and some pitchers start emerging from Theo's ass.

I'll get optimistic when all these "top" prospects do something at the major league level.

Being .500 isn't about this year. It's about where that puts you going into next offseason. Where were they going into 2013? A 61 win team. Where were they going into 2014? A 66 win team. So, if they end up at 75-80 wins you're potentially talking about 80-85 next year. 80-85 wins would be pretty close to competitive. In the NL 85 wins would have put you 5 back last year in the wild card.

Additionally, it's not like they have made these improvements throwing money at the issue. In fact, they've done the opposite. So, with a minimum of $50 mil to spend this offseason what can they do? They aren't as far away from competition as people make it out to be. They were 18-13 since the start of June. So, where they finish actually does matter. If they stay a .500 team the rest of the way after losing Shark and Hammel it says a lot about what they have and additions in both prospects and FA could be coming shortly.

 

[TL1961]

This was the worst move since trading away Greg Maddux.

The only thing they did right was making sure Shark was in the AL, so he wouldn't kill the Cubs for the next decade.

Well....you're missing the fact that Shark won't be with one team for the next decade, and I highly doubt he'll "kill" any teams. He is just a guy. A guy who wants $20 mil per year. They overpaid to get him in the 1st place. He has an inflated view of his worth.

(And they only traded Maddux once, when he was 39. I assume that's not what you meant.)

 

[chibears55]

@JonHeymanCBS: "he's barry larkin ... with power." -- scout on addison russell. yes, i liked cubs deal (& a's too). cbsprt.co/1ry0LzK

 

[BearsWillWin]

So, with a minimum of $50 mil to spend this offseason what can they do?

And what in anything Theo and Ricketts have done so far makes you believe they would spend anywhere close to that number?

 

[beckdawg]

And what in anything Theo and Ricketts have done so far makes you believe they would spend anywhere close to that number?

I have 0 faith in Ricketts to increase payroll. However, that $50 mil assumes the same $110 payroll Theo did spend to in 2012 and did spend to in 2013 and would have spent to had they actually been able to sign Tanaka. You're looking at likely a $60 mil payroll after arbitration right now. Even this year they are at $90 mil and that was largely because Tanaka signed late which meant some of the FA the cubs might have wanted after failing to land Tanaka had already signed and there wasn't much left.

 

[BearsWillWin]

They actually have 50 million of active contracts on the books right now.

They have 21 million in dead money, 2/3 of that belonging to Soriano. Another 10 in IR right now.

Total payroll is 81 million.

It was 75 million in 2013.

So you're telling me they missed the boat on other FA targets because they were waiting for Tanaka? Haha. Because they obviously can't afford to sign multiple free agents. It's not like they are a big city, top revenue team in this league, right?

Hilarious.

 

[beckdawg]

They actually have 50 million of active contracts on the books right now.

They have 21 million in dead money, 2/3 of that belonging to Soriano. Another 10 in IR right now.

Total payroll is 81 million.

It was 75 million in 2013.

So you're telling me they missed the boat on other FA targets because they were waiting for Tanaka? Haha. Because they obviously can't afford to sign multiple free agents. It's not like they are a big city, top revenue team in this league, right?

Hilarious.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/chicago-cubs/
Note though that they have Jackson incorrect on here because he was given an $8 signing bonus the first year of the deal making the remaining years $11 mil. They've averaged his deal over the length of the contract.

Your 2013 figures aren't accurate.

Between, Castro, Jackson, Rizzo, Soler, buyouts of Veras and Fujikawa, Conception, and Sweeney they have ~$30 mil committed toward 2015. If you figure arbitration on Castillo, Arrieta and Wood you're probably taking upwards of $15 mil. As for the rest of the arbitration eligible players many are non-tender/trade candidates. You still will need to replace them on the 40 man roster however and they are likely around $15 mil. That gets you to the $60 mil I mentioned.

As for what they spent in 2012/13, the numbers are laid out right there in the link. My math is right.

Additionally, in reference to Tanaka, the cubs reportedly offered him a 6 year $120 mil deal plus the $20 mil posting fee. They could pay the fee over multiple years or all at once but if you assume 6 years $140 that's $23.33 mil. They gave Hammel $6 mil. $23.33 - $6 mil = $17.33. $17.33 + $ 92,677,368 = $110 mil. 2013 was $106,837,810. 2012 was $109,316,000

 

[chibears55]

And what in anything Theo and Ricketts have done so far makes you believe they would spend anywhere close to that number?

first need to realize that the last 2 years under Theo/Jed wasn't about spending money, it was about adding quantity / quality players to the farm system by way of IFA, Draft, FA flips and trades.

now, look at where payroll is for the next 5 years...

2015 31.160 MIL ( 6 players ) 2016 31.510 MIL (5 players ) 2017 20.810 MIL ( 3 players) 2018 22.810 MIL ( 3 players ) 2019 27.810 MIL ( 3 players )

one of the players in all 5 years is Jorge soler and the increase you see is from castro and Rizzo who as you see are the only 2 players signed with soler for those last 3 years.

of course those amounts will go up some after they include the ones in their ARBs years..

so, as you can see even if they keep payroll in the 100-110 MIL range, they have plenty of room to go after needed FA the next couple of years to fill whatever void they have and to keep and extend their own top players down the road like baez, Bryant, etc if they succeed on the major league level..

yes it sucked the last couple of years with the losing, etc.. but the next couple of years is looking a bit brighter for the north side because YES their going to be able to add solid players all 3 ways.. VIA trades, Home Grown, and FA

the bullpen is young and is already close to being solid..

the offense is being led by 2 of their young core and is about to get 3 new addition from their system either this year or next in baez, Bryant, and alcantara
Castillo is doing a pretty good job behind the plate, hopefully he can get his offense up a bit more..
so now that's 6 regulars out of 8 that will be set at the very lastest by May 2015

the rotation is now led by Arrieta and wood, were probably stuck with Jackson for another year or two..
they just drafted a shit load of pitchers the last 2 years, time will tell how many emerges as quality major league talent for the rotation, bullpen, or trades
they have a few in the system that are ready to step up now, were going to get a good look at at least 2 for the remainder of this season..

the rotation today may not have that no. 1 go to guy but they have plenty of arms in their system to see who steps up and future money available to be able to add or trade for a top arm when ready and needed.

 

[Sunbiz1]

Well....you're missing the fact that Shark won't be with one team for the next decade, and I highly doubt he'll "kill" any teams. He is just a guy. A guy who wants $20 mil per year. They overpaid to get him in the 1st place. He has an inflated view of his worth.

(And they only traded Maddux once, when he was 39. I assume that's not what you meant.)

Wrong on Greg:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maddugr01.shtml

Cubs know they cannot compete for a few years, so they dumped more payroll.

And WTF do they need 3 short-stops for?.

 

[beckdawg]

Wrong on Greg:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maddugr01.shtml

Cubs know they cannot compete for a few years, so they dumped more payroll.

And WTF do they need 3 short-stops for?.

One can play 3B. Bryant can play RF. Another could potentially play 2B though I think it's more likely they deal one of Baez/Castro for MLB pitching when they are closer.

 

[dabynsky]

You missed a lot of posts in the past nine months. Cub fans thought they'd get two pitchers in the top 30 plus some for Shark

Would you agree not all top five prospects are the same?

Yes well two guys at 29 and 30 isn't worth number 5. The drop off in value is pretty steep after you move out of the elite prospects as this article shows. I agree that top 5 prospects are different and derive their value differently. But seriously what is the flaw with Addison Russell? What is there to not be freaking ecstatic about having Addison Russell in the Cubs farm system? The only fault that people have is that he plays the most difficult defensive position in baseball well (if you can't tell that isn't a problem).

 

[2323]

@Ken_Rosenthal: Sources: #Yankees exchanged proposals with #Cubs on both Samardzija, Hammel. #Athletics had piece that could trump all - Russell.

Put another way:the Yankees didn't have enough to really be taken seriously but this is reported because Rosenthal knows if he mentions the Yankees, it will move the needle more than reporting this the way he should have.

 

[2323]

Castro should be the one traded for pitching.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Castro should be the one traded for pitching.

They aren't trading Castro. What do they need pitching for? Are they going to the WS this year?

 

[2323]

They aren't trading Castro. What do they need pitching for? Are they going to the WS this year?

Why is Castro off limits?