Pitchers poised to make 'the leap'
Six hurlers with the stuff to emerge like Max Scherzer did in 2013
Updated: January 24, 2014, 12:16 PM ET
By Dan Szymborski | ESPN Insider
One of 2013's big stories was the emergence of Max Scherzer, the eventual American League Cy Young Award winner. Though he entered the season with a career-best ERA of 3.50 and neither an All-Star Game or Cy Young vote to his name, the 28-year-old righty dominated the AL en route to a 21-3 record, a sterling 2.90 ERA, and the Cy Young Award.
The elite pitchers in baseball don't emerge from the ground, fully formed stars in the manner of Greek mythology; they usually come from the group of good to very good pitchers. Somewhere out there, there's a merely good pitcher about to become a terrific one. The challenge is identifying just who that will be.
The odds of any particular pitcher taking a step forward are relatively small -- if it were easy, everybody would do it -- but here are my favorite candidates to break out and have a Cy Young-esque 2014 season.
Jeff Samardzija, RHP | Chicago Cubs
Three years ago, Samardzija's name being on a list like this would be absolutely ludicrous. Lots of people -- myself included -- doubted the Cubs could ever turn Samardzija from a flamethrower with miserable command into a top-flight starter.
Even the Cubs appeared to question their chances at times, trying the Shark in a number of roles in his first three stints in the majors, which consisted of a 5.95 ERA and 50 walks in 81 2/3 innings for Chicago. He even struggled at times to get minor leaguers out, with a 4.17 ERA and five walks per game in Triple-A -- not exactly screaming "top-flight starter."
The wide receiver jokes about Samardzija are a thing of the past as he continues to show steady improvement. Sometimes the hardest thing for a prospect to do is lose those extra walks, but while he's no Bob Tewksbury, his 3.1 walks per nine in the past two seasons is quite respectable. Samardzija's second half featured a rather ugly 4.72 ERA, but a lot of that was fueled by a .324 BABIP as the Cubs' summer turned sour faster than an egg salad sandwich left sitting in your car.
Homer Bailey, RHP | Cincinnati Reds
After years of underperforming, Bailey finally established himself as a Real Major Leaguer in 2012, but I still suspect that his upside is higher than the solid 111 ERA+ he has put up the past two seasons.
In 2013, Bailey was 11th in baseball in percentage of pitches that were swinging strikes. The top 10 includes both Cy Young Award winners and five others who received votes (Yu Darvish, Anibal Sanchez, Sale, Harvey, and Madison Bumgarner). Bailey throws hard, with the seventh-fastest fastball average in 2013 and the second-fastest slider, and given his ability to miss bats, his upside is higher than simply being a good No. 2 or 3 starter.