Joe Maddon's Job Security

[chibears55]

Heyward would be the one success story of taking a player who had been trying to change who he was at the plate for the club and then the new instructor comes in and wants him to go back to being his old self when he broke into the league. Duh. That's the idea. Too many other guys struggled and lost some pop. What progress did Baez make that he wasn't already making? I'd strongly consider a staff change and if I'm Theo, I'm adding players this off-season who actually have the DNA of hitting the ball and not striking out so much already. This team surely had to lead the NL in games scoring 1 or less runs. We're talking over 30 games.

Have to think that the one big change to the lineup will be either Machado or Harper ..

Im pretty sure their on top of Theo want list

Have to think a CFer is on that list too

 

[Parade_Rain]

I guess I just don't believe the hitting coach makes that much difference over 1 year. I think the issue is more the minor league development. Seems to me they focused a lot on power early in the front office's tenure and not enough on contact. Now they are seemingly trying to fix some of the K issues and it's costing them power. But doing it now at the MLB level isn't ever going to be pretty stat wise and it's not going to be easy.

Every year is precious.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Have to think that the one big change to the lineup will be either Machado or Harper ..

Im pretty sure their on top of Theo want list

Have to think a CFer is on that list too

I think Beckdawg commented on.this and thought Machado was a better match with needs. I tend to concur, but if they want to sign both of them, it's not my money.

 

[chibears55]

I think Beckdawg commented on.this and thought Machado was a better match with needs. I tend to concur, but if they want to sign both of them, it's not my money.

Machado does fit the greater need...
Kinda think Harper will be the easier get, as far as who want to be a cub more

As far as both...
I think they can do both if bulk of the money backloaded

Will they do both, i doubt it

 

[Parade_Rain]

https://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/1046740185751461888

Biggest YoY team improvements:
Red Sox +40 (+91 runs)
Angels +28 (+11 runs)
Yankees +26 (-7 runs)

Biggest YoY team declines:
Cubs -57 (-62 runs)
Marlins -66 (-189 runs!!)
Rays -78 (+20 runs)

 

[beckdawg]

Machado does fit the greater need...
Kinda think Harper will be the easier get, as far as who want to be a cub more

As far as both...
I think they can do both if bulk of the money backloaded

Will they do both, i doubt it

I don't really see either wanting to be a cub more. I mean sure Bryant and Harper are close but Machado and Almora are even closer. And I'm not sure Machado is going to have any loyalty toward LA built up from a half season there.

As for both... I can't see it happening. I don't even think it's about the money. The problem is you'd have to rearrange so many pieces to make it fit. If you grab one of the two you may have to move one guy. Hell, if they suspend Russell and you get Machado, you may not even need to move anyone because by the time Russell returns someone might be on the DL.

Plus honestly I just don't think Harper is worth the money people are talking about him getting. He's a slightly better version of Schwarber excluding 2015. The last 3 years he's hit .267/.391/.505(132 wRC+). Schwarber this year has hit .239/.357/.469(116 wRC+). That's +28 points in avg, +34 points in obp and +46 points in power. In other words, the difference between them is almost entirely their batting average as that feeds into OBP and SLG. Obviously some of that assumes you believe Harper isn't the guy he was in 2015 and also assumes you believe Schwarber will improve some like I do. But either way I'm not sure that's where I'd spend $25-30 mil a season.

 

[chibears55]

I don't really see either wanting to be a cub more. I mean sure Bryant and Harper are close but Machado and Almora are even closer. And I'm not sure Machado is going to have any loyalty toward LA built up from a half season there.

As for both... I can't see it happening. I don't even think it's about the money. The problem is you'd have to rearrange so many pieces to make it fit. If you grab one of the two you may have to move one guy. Hell, if they suspend Russell and you get Machado, you may not even need to move anyone because by the time Russell returns someone might be on the DL.

Plus honestly I just don't think Harper is worth the money people are talking about him getting. He's a slightly better version of Schwarber excluding 2015. The last 3 years he's hit .267/.391/.505(132 wRC+). Schwarber this year has hit .239/.357/.469(116 wRC+). That's +28 points in avg, +34 points in obp and +46 points in power. In other words, the difference between them is almost entirely their batting average as that feeds into OBP and SLG. Obviously some of that assumes you believe Harper isn't the guy he was in 2015 and also assumes you believe Schwarber will improve some like I do. But either way I'm not sure that's where I'd spend $25-30 mil a season.

Almora may not even be a cub next year, especially if they look for another CFer..

I think they trade Schwarber and Russell

Again, i don't think theyll attempt to sign both, im just saying they can if they really wanted to

This is going to be a very interesting and active offseason for the cubs

 

[beckdawg]

Almora may not even be a cub next year, especially if they look for another CFer..

I think they trade Schwarber and Russell

Again, i don't think theyll attempt to sign both, im just saying they can if they really wanted to

This is going to be a very interesting and active offseason for the cubs

I really don't think they can trade Russell. Like no one is giving you anything of value. And if you need to see how dumb it would be to trade him just look at what the Yankees gave up for Chapman and what they got 6 months later from the cubs. Plus it's not like Russell doesn't provide you value. They currently have no other SS on the roster for next year(not counting Freeman).

As for Schwarber, like I said, if he even marginally improves he's basically on a similar level to what Harper has been the past 3 years. Plus, I see no reason to trade him before Happ. Happ had a worse BA, OBP and SLG. And in terms of defensive metrics, Schwarber was +2 DRS to -7 for Happ and +13.9 UZR/150 to Happ's -7.7. I think you can make the case Happ is a better defender than that but my point here is that it's not like there's a huge gap between the two defensively and Schwarber has shown he's a better hitter currently. The one thing Happ has on him is he's a switch hitter but given the way Joe plays guys you're largely only going to see favorable split situations anyways because Zobrist is going to see time in RF next year and if they sign Machado Bryant probably will too meaning Heyward either has to play CF or Bryant has to go to LF.

As for Almora, what of value are you going to get for him? I like Almora probably more than most but it's not like he's going to return you a #2 or #3 starter in trade. He's a solid 3rd/4th OF with a good glove. He's perfectly suited for the joe plays his OF moving guys around.

 

[chibears55]

I really don't think they can trade Russell. Like no one is giving you anything of value. And if you need to see how dumb it would be to trade him just look at what the Yankees gave up for Chapman and what they got 6 months later from the cubs. Plus it's not like Russell doesn't provide you value. They currently have no other SS on the roster for next year(not counting Freeman).

As for Schwarber, like I said, if he even marginally improves he's basically on a similar level to what Harper has been the past 3 years. Plus, I see no reason to trade him before Happ. Happ had a worse BA, OBP and SLG. And in terms of defensive metrics, Schwarber was +2 DRS to -7 for Happ and +13.9 UZR/150 to Happ's -7.7. I think you can make the case Happ is a better defender than that but my point here is that it's not like there's a huge gap between the two defensively and Schwarber has shown he's a better hitter currently. The one thing Happ has on him is he's a switch hitter but given the way Joe plays guys you're largely only going to see favorable split situations anyways because Zobrist is going to see time in RF next year and if they sign Machado Bryant probably will too meaning Heyward either has to play CF or Bryant has to go to LF.

As for Almora, what of value are you going to get for him? I like Almora probably more than most but it's not like he's going to return you a #2 or #3 starter in trade. He's a solid 3rd/4th OF with a good glove. He's perfectly suited for the joe plays his OF moving guys around.

So basically you have the whole team coming back with no changes

Lol

 

[Omeletpants]

Why do I have the feeling Maddon is not a huge fan of Almora?

 

[beckdawg]

So basically you have the whole team coming back with no changes

Lol

No, I said I'd bring in Machado, probably deal Happ and probably look for a better back up C. I had a length reply typed out but people often want me to summarize so here's the deal. Schwarber and Almora compliment each other greatly. Schwarber had a 122 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Almora's a career 118 wRC+ vs LHP. And obviously Almora defensively compliments Schwarber's ok but weaker defense. You effectively platoon those two and you're getting a 120ish wRC+ LF. Zobrist as a switch hitter is largely platoon neutral hitting 116 and 126 wRC+ vs LHP/RHP. If you're bringing in Machado it's gonna be very hard for him to regularly play the infield and he's likely the front runner for the lead off man next year so you likely want him starting. And obviously Heyward is gonna play most days regardless of what they do.

In terms of infield, Machado, Baez, Rizzo and Bryant would all be mvp caliber bats. As for Contreras, I think you bring in a vet so you don't have to lean so hard on him vs what they did with Caratini. Presumably, La Stella is back as a barely ever plays PHer. And assuming Russell is suspended for like 50 games I would assume Bote is up. But after that you're talking about Russell as your 5th infielder rather than your starting SS.

The fact of the matter is if you bring in Harper and Machado you don't have a lead off hitter unless you try to shoe horn Heyward or Machado into it. Zobrist is going to need to be that guy and he's going to need to play fairly often given how well he's played. You're not doing that if Harper is there.

 

[chibears55]

No, I said I'd bring in Machado, probably deal Happ and probably look for a better back up C. I had a length reply typed out but people often want me to summarize so here's the deal. Schwarber and Almora compliment each other greatly. Schwarber had a 122 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Almora's a career 118 wRC+ vs LHP. And obviously Almora defensively compliments Schwarber's ok but weaker defense. You effectively platoon those two and you're getting a 120ish wRC+ LF. Zobrist as a switch hitter is largely platoon neutral hitting 116 and 126 wRC+ vs LHP/RHP. If you're bringing in Machado it's gonna be very hard for him to regularly play the infield and he's likely the front runner for the lead off man next year so you likely want him starting. And obviously Heyward is gonna play most days regardless of what they do.

In terms of infield, Machado, Baez, Rizzo and Bryant would all be mvp caliber bats. As for Contreras, I think you bring in a vet so you don't have to lean so hard on him vs what they did with Caratini. Presumably, La Stella is back as a barely ever plays PHer. And assuming Russell is suspended for like 50 games I would assume Bote is up. But after that you're talking about Russell as your 5th infielder rather than your starting SS.

The fact of the matter is if you bring in Harper and Machado you don't have a lead off hitter unless you try to shoe horn Heyward or Machado into it. Zobrist is going to need to be that guy and he's going to need to play fairly often given how well he's played. You're not doing that if Harper is there.

I can see Machado

Im thinking more the line of

Contreras

Rizzo
2Bmen
Baez
Machado

Bryant
CFer
Heyward

I think they go get a 2B and CF.
One who can be that leadoff type and the other guy who can slot in at the bottom of order ahead of the pitcher, patience singles type of hitter..
Both with base stealing ability

They need to balance out the lineup better over basically having 8 of the same type of hitters


I think they keep Happ for the bench with Zobrist Bote and Lastella
And i agree, they need to find a better backup catcher


Adding Machado, moving Bryant to left and getting an everyday CFer, gives the lineup more everyday type players in it...

 

[beckdawg]

I think they go get a 2B and CF.

I don't see any way they are getting 2 every day players who are better hitters than Zobrist and an Almora/Schwarber platoon. I mean there's not many 120+ wRC+ out there and as mentioned that's what your platoon of Almora/Schwarber would give you and Zobrist put up 124 this year. And more over you literally have to do nothing to make that happen vs either giving up a lot of prospects or paying a **** ton of money on players who may not even be out there. There's no CF out there that is a FA this coming season who's 120 wRC+. Pollock would be the closest but he's been hurt the past 3 years and is gonna be 31. That seems like a bad bet. And Murphy is probably the best hitting 2B on the market.

In terms of trades, Whit Merrifield is the only reasonable 2B who fits what you're asking for but the Royals have said they have no intention to trade him. And as for CF no team with a CF that good is going to be giving him up because the ones that are that good are on contending teams.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Must have a real leadoff man. Must have a real leadoff man.

 

[ijustposthere]

Cubs underachieved this season. Not sure why you're struggling to understand that.

Because he knows they didn't.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't see any way they are getting 2 every day players who are better hitters than Zobrist and an Almora/Schwarber platoon. I mean there's not many 120+ wRC+ out there and as mentioned that's what your platoon of Almora/Schwarber would give you and Zobrist put up 124 this year. And more over you literally have to do nothing to make that happen vs either giving up a lot of prospects or paying a **** ton of money on players who may not even be out there. There's no CF out there that is a FA this coming season who's 120 wRC+. Pollock would be the closest but he's been hurt the past 3 years and is gonna be 31. That seems like a bad bet. And Murphy is probably the best hitting 2B on the market.

In terms of trades, Whit Merrifield is the only reasonable 2B who fits what you're asking for but the Royals have said they have no intention to trade him. And as for CF no team with a CF that good is going to be giving him up because the ones that are that good are on contending teams.

Also re: this... i'm not honestly sure the offense is that big of a problem. They finished 4th in the NL in runs scored. The issue is situational hitting. In other words, if you fix the situational hitting flaw then the offense isn't just good it's likely great. Machado hit .309/.480/.491(150 wRC+) in high leverage situations this year. The guy he would be replacing as a starter in Russell hit .140/.211/.240(15 wRC+) in high leverage situations. One player with that sort of swing is going to make a big improvement on its own. Baez, Contreras and Schwarber all have to be better as they were all pretty terrible in high leverage situations. However, Zobrist and Almora were pretty good in those situations albeit without much power.

The more interesting aspect of team building to me is the bullpen. I think if everyone's healthy from a bat standpoint and you add Machado the problem will fix itself. Even if they aren't amazing in high leverage situations I think that group of hitters will put themselves in position to score enough that it wont matter so long as there's a little improvement. The bullpen on the other hand has been an issue seemingly since 2015.

 

[chibears55]

Also re: this... i'm not honestly sure the offense is that big of a problem. They finished 4th in the NL in runs scored. The issue is situational hitting. In other words, if you fix the situational hitting flaw then the offense isn't just good it's likely great. Machado hit .309/.480/.491(150 wRC+) in high leverage situations this year. The guy he would be replacing as a starter in Russell hit .140/.211/.240(15 wRC+) in high leverage situations. One player with that sort of swing is going to make a big improvement on its own. Baez, Contreras and Schwarber all have to be better as they were all pretty terrible in high leverage situations. However, Zobrist and Almora were pretty good in those situations albeit without much power.

The more interesting aspect of team building to me is the bullpen. I think if everyone's healthy from a bat standpoint and you add Machado the problem will fix itself. Even if they aren't amazing in high leverage situations I think that group of hitters will put themselves in position to score enough that it wont matter so long as there's a little improvement. The bullpen on the other hand has been an issue seemingly since 2015.

Machado replaces Russell, that a big lift for the offense..

This is going to be year 3 that we hope some of these guys improve

Now were hoping year 3 is a better year for Schwarber ?

If Maddon still the manager, Almora just not going to get an opportunity to do more..
He might've had an opportunity this year, but he shut down in the 2nd half..

Contreras probably improves if he gets more days off and works over the offseason

Zobrist gonna 38, odds against him repeating what he did this year..
Probably gets less AB next year with Baez and possibly Machado playing everyday and depending what they do with the OF


I dont wanna give up on these kids but i just see a change in the lineup..

I think Russell and Schwarber are expendable

 

[beckdawg]

This is going to be year 3 that we hope some of these guys improve

Now were hoping year 3 is a better year for Schwarber ?

Schwarber did improve. He had the highest walk rate of any of his 3 seasons by +2.2% while also having the lowest k rate of his career by -0.8%. He also had the most hard contact of his career by 0.6%. In terms of facing LHP, he's gone from .143/.213/.268 to .171/.306/.341 to this year at .224/.352/.303 which has taken his wRC+ from 30 to 75 to 85. He's making progress. And as I said before, at 122 wRC+ vs RHP you're not going to find any LF off the street that does that. There were 22 OF's in all of baseball with a wRC+ of 122+ vs RHP.

Now sure he has more work to do. But I've literally shown you the example of Rizzo who put up strikingly similar numbers in his first ~1200 PAs as a big LH power bat. The following year Rizzo hit .286/.386/.527 and was a 5.3 win player. I'm not going to hold out hope that he makes *that* big of an improvement but he's really not as far off as you are making him out to be. That year Rizzo broke out he hit .281/.373/.534 vs RHP. Schwarber hit .243/.358/.506 this year. So, you're roughly talking about ~20 points in average being the difference. Schwarber had 350 ABs this year vs RHP and had 85 hits. To raise his average 20 points he would need like 7 more hits. Over a full season that's nothing. Against LHP he'd need to find about 5 more hits plus he'd need to tap into some power vs LHP. He only had 4 xbh's vs LHP

Point here being, we're not talking about an astronomical change for him to break out in a similar fashion to Rizzo. It's like 12 hits over the course of a season.

 

[chibears55]

Schwarber did improve. He had the highest walk rate of any of his 3 seasons by +2.2% while also having the lowest k rate of his career by -0.8%. He also had the most hard contact of his career by 0.6%. In terms of facing LHP, he's gone from .143/.213/.268 to .171/.306/.341 to this year at .224/.352/.303 which has taken his wRC+ from 30 to 75 to 85. He's making progress. And as I said before, at 122 wRC+ vs RHP you're not going to find any LF off the street that does that. There were 22 OF's in all of baseball with a wRC+ of 122+ vs RHP.

Now sure he has more work to do. But I've literally shown you the example of Rizzo who put up strikingly similar numbers in his first ~1200 PAs as a big LH power bat. The following year Rizzo hit .286/.386/.527 and was a 5.3 win player. I'm not going to hold out hope that he makes *that* big of an improvement but he's really not as far off as you are making him out to be. That year Rizzo broke out he hit .281/.373/.534 vs RHP. Schwarber hit .243/.358/.506 this year. So, you're roughly talking about ~20 points in average being the difference. Schwarber had 350 ABs this year vs RHP and had 85 hits. To raise his average 20 points he would need like 7 more hits. Over a full season that's nothing. Against LHP he'd need to find about 5 more hits plus he'd need to tap into some power vs LHP. He only had 4 xbh's vs LHP

Point here being, we're not talking about an astronomical change for him to break out in a similar fashion to Rizzo. It's like 12 hits over the course of a season.

I would hope we expect more out of Schwarber then just walking more and striking out less...

Guy supposed to be a power hitting, run producer in the middle of the order..
Someone they can count on to carry them in stretches.
He been far from that

So, like i said it wouldn't disappoint me if they moved on from him

 

[fatbeard]

Must have a real leadoff man. Must have a real leadoff man.

Maybe they can finally trade Baez for Ender Inciarte?