Problem #1, you want to use Bears drafts since 2003 as an acceptable benchmark for good drafting, not even close, big swing and a miss.
While I work on my reading skills could you please list all the Hall Of Fame players picked after the 66th pick. That is the point, can a good GM find franchise changing players after the 66th pick. Or is mick correct about the 67th pick in the draft.
I think a good GM should be expected to find quality at 67. mick think it's throw away pick due to his lack of faith in Pace.
Who the fuck cares about Hall of Fame players selected after the 67th pick? They are just outliers and have nothing to do with a normal draft.
Moreover; Bearmick didn't say that the 67th pick had no value. He said that the value of being able to obtain the QB that you want is worth the small chance of drafting an eventual starter at 67.
As the OP stated, multiple teams were calling the 49ers for the 2nd round pick. Thus, the Bears had to trade up to #2 to draft Trubs. Pace made a decision and made sure that he got HIS player. He may be right or he may be wrong, but he had to use the 3rd, 4th and 3rd rounder in 2018 to get HIS player. Waiting for Trubs at #3 was not an option.
Do you know how I know this? Simple. Multiple teams were calling Lynch to trade up to #2. If they wanted to trade up to #2 to select any other player who wasn't Trubs, why were the phones silent after Trubs was drafted and every other player was still available who wasn't Trubs? When SF was on the clock, Garrett was already gone. Why were people calling SF when they were on the clock at #2 and not when they were on the clock at #3?
For your information, the 1st round of any draft is a 50/50 proposition. You have as much chance of drafting a bust than drafting a long-term starter.
I will use two cases for drafting success, one much more favorable to you but less realistic and one more realistic.
The best case is 50% success in the 1st, 40% success in the 2nd and 30% success in the 3rd. This is unrealistic but it will prove a point.
The more realistic is that the success rate is halved every round. So success is 50% in the 1st, 25% in the 2nd and 12% in the 3rd.
Looking at both cases, the chance of a team not having success with a 3rd round pick is between 70% and 88%. However; you demand that Pace better draft a starter with every 3rd round pick? Get a clue.
