Kane, Hammer Approve Of Blackhawks Offseason

[DewsSox79]

Where are you getting these numbers? Just by comparing the stats of Line X to Line Y.

it is pretty easy using excel. taking out all the regression and injuries, using a plus 4 formula per stat line category for each individual per line, in all combinations. I only did 4 lines as I can not keep trying to mix and match and not having enough data to fill in numbers for a ben smith or a viktor stalberg if they were inserted into the top 6. basically it is a plus 4 for each player across their statline in their best year ( career year ) it is almost like a sabermetric but more forgiving and more positive than anything since you are adding 4's across a career year which each individual will probably not repeat their career year.

 

[icehogfan08]

Kane is gonna be protected?

Yeah, Carcillo will put fear into people. :rolling:

Dude, your a fucking dumbass, go find a Red Wings message board

 

[DewsSox79]

I think I read this book, its called "pull the formula out your ass cause your not making any sense with other stats."

ok. im sorry that it is too hard for you to comprehend. Try using google for this, it works great. Thats all i had to do!

 

[derosabomb]

Kane is gonna be protected?

Yeah, Carcillo will put fear into people. :rolling:

lol care to throw in anymore completely irrelevant discussion into the ring while you dodge the questions that have been asked of you to answer?

 

[southern_cross_116]

Just because he is on a better line doesnt mean he will produce more.

Actually there is evidence that this can and has been the case - take the example of Warren Young.

Warren Young - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

1984-85 he was on a line with Mario Lemieux - scored 40 goals- then he gets signed in the Red Wings big free agent splurge of the following year - and note how this particular guy performed when not on a line with Mario Lemieux- you can also point to Brett Hull being separated from Adam Oates, and indirectly - Bernie Nicholls - in his first (and only) season with Wayne Gretzky - LAK -where Bernie scored over 70 goals - he was never a huge goal scorer before and never came close to that total again (which didn't make him a bad player- just not -that- player that scored 70).

Linemates make a big difference - which doesn't say anything directly to your point on Brunette -more about the generalisation being made about line composition not being a factor - I think that is wrong, think history shows it being wrong, and know that in my own experience - it was also wrong in my own personal playing situation.

Now I suppose that guys that are not really great playmakers (more of the one dimensional -shooter types) are going to be affected by this sort of thing -than say someone who is a good or better playmaker.

 

[icehogfan08]

ok. im sorry that it is too hard for you to comprehend. Try using google for this, it works great. Thats all i had to do!

No, I like what your doing, your avoiding me and TBO's stats that we throw at you by posting nonsense everytime.

 

[tbo41fan]

it is pretty easy using excel. taking out all the regression and injuries, using a plus 4 formula per stat line category for each individual per line, in all combinations. I only did 4 lines as I can not keep trying to mix and match and not having enough data to fill in numbers for a ben smith or a viktor stalberg if they were inserted into the top 6. basically it is a plus 4 for each player across their statline in their best year ( career year ) it is almost like a sabermetric but more forgiving and more positive than anything since you are adding 4's across a career year which each individual will probably not repeat their career year.

It is a sabermetric since you're adding in the unknown...you can only go off the past, what has actually happened....not using false numbers to career year.

You hate on saber in the baseball forums, but its ok to use in here?

 

[southern_cross_116]

it is pretty easy using excel. taking out all the regression and injuries, using a plus 4 formula per stat line category for each individual per line, in all combinations. I only did 4 lines as I can not keep trying to mix and match and not having enough data to fill in numbers for a ben smith or a viktor stalberg if they were inserted into the top 6. basically it is a plus 4 for each player across their statline in their best year ( career year ) it is almost like a sabermetric but more forgiving and more positive than anything since you are adding 4's across a career year which each individual will probably not repeat their career year.

Does this work with baseball?

If so -could you take Andre Dawson's career stats to 1986 and then would what he did in 1987 be able to be predicted by this model?

Or I suppose if you can agree that this sort of thing would vet this particular metric- then could this model Bernie Nicholls' 70 goal series in 1988-89 -keeping in mind that I don't think he was anything other than the Kings 2nd line centre that year. If you take his historical stats up to the 1987-88 season -that 1988-89 ends up breaking that model pretty decisively. Same thing with Warren Young prior to 1984-85 -if it can't predict stat models that there is an actual histocial basis for- then I can hardly see how it is a valid model.



Just curious.

 

[icehogfan08]

lol care to throw in anymore completely irrelevant discussion into the ring while you dodge the questions that have been asked of you to answer?

:clap::clap:

It is a sabermetric since you're adding in the unknown...you can only go off the past, what has actually happened....not using false numbers to career year.

You hate on saber in the baseball forums, but its ok to use in here?

:clap::clap::clap:

 

[DewsSox79]

It is a sabermetric since you're adding in the unknown...you can only go off the past, what has actually happened....not using false numbers to career year.

You hate on saber in the baseball forums, but its ok to use in here?

what fucking stats? his goals and assists and the line he was on? you talk about brunette like he is the 2nd coming of christ.

he sits in front of the net, big fucking deal. A player not sitting correctly in front of the net last year was one of 1000 variables that were missing last year, and a very small variable at that.

This is a saber stat that goes in your favor, that is why I posted it, to show you even with inflated numbers the margin between lines is thin, when looking at it passed face value. What dont you get here?

 

[DewsSox79]

It is a sabermetric since you're adding in the unknown...you can only go off the past, what has actually happened....not using false numbers to career year.

You hate on saber in the baseball forums, but its ok to use in here?

again, these numbers are wrong that I posted, they are inflated in your favor, in my debate to show you that even with inflated numbers the margain is still very thin between the lines. do you think adding 4 across the stat line of all combinations of players involved in the top 6 of their CAREER years is going to happen? **** no. that is why i posted it. Is This is hard to understand. it takes out all the things that you guys are concerned about, and gives the surrounding players monster years.

 

[tbo41fan]

what fucking stats? his goals and assists and the line he was on? you talk about brunette like he is the 2nd coming of christ.

he sits in front of the net, big fucking deal. A player not sitting correctly in front of the net last year was one of 1000 variables that were missing last year, and a very small variable at that.

This is a saber stat that goes in your favor, that is why I posted it, to show you even with inflated numbers the margin between lines is thin, when looking at it passed face value. What dont you get here?

He's not the 2nd coming of christ, but he is a piece which will help this team!
You are knocking on him for no reason, but get pissed when we appreciate what he brings to the table...

Not one of us has said he is coming in to be a #1 forward and score 60 goals, but we are trying to show you how he is a valuable assett and you dont get it...


I dont care if the stat helps me or not...its a saber stat, meaning its based on unknown factors...its not reliable

 

[DewsSox79]

He's not the 2nd coming of christ, but he is a piece which will help this team!
You are knocking on him for no reason, but get pissed when we appreciate what he brings to the table...

Not one of us has said he is coming in to be a #1 forward and score 60 goals, but we are trying to show you how he is a valuable assett and you dont get it...


I dont care if the stat helps me or not...its a saber stat, meaning its based on unknown factors...its not reliable

of course. it is taking away injury, age regression, and giving your surrounding players monster years which should benefit you.

 

[DMelt36]

what fucking stats? his goals and assists and the line he was on? you talk about brunette like he is the 2nd coming of christ.

he sits in front of the net, big fucking deal. A player not sitting correctly in front of the net last year was one of 1000 variables that were missing last year, and a very small variable at that.

This is a saber stat that goes in your favor, that is why I posted it, to show you even with inflated numbers the margin between lines is thin, when looking at it passed face value. What dont you get here?

With a player that sat in front of the net (Buff) the Hawks beat the Canucks in the playoffs. Without him, they did not.

As for your sabremetric-like stats ... I'll give your credit for effort and really can't say much else because I have no idea how those kinds of statistics work (nor do I really care).

I don't think you're ever going to find a statistical correlation that will indicate how Brunette will do next season. Is he upgrading his linemates? No doubt. But there isn't a guarantee that it will work.

However, I believe it will. Why? Because with a 2nd line of Brunette/Sharp/Hossa, you have three different styles of play that work well together.

Brunette can win 50/50 pucks and get to the dirty areas to maintain possession of the puck. He can get the puck to Sharp/Hossa who then have the ability to pass/shoot/finish from all over the ice.

Imagine any 3 on 3 rush in for this line ... Brunette center drives to the net while Sharp and Hossa find the opening to make the pass and the goal. And if a save is made, bet on Brunette to be there to poke home a rebound.

Simple hockey tells you their line sets up very well.

 

[icehogfan08]

what fucking stats? his goals and assists and the line he was on? you talk about brunette like he is the 2nd coming of christ.

he sits in front of the net, big fucking deal. A player not sitting correctly in front of the net last year was one of 1000 variables that were missing last year, and a very small variable at that.

This is a saber stat that goes in your favor, that is why I posted it, to show you even with inflated numbers the margin between lines is thin, when looking at it passed face value. What dont you get here?

Which is a big factor to winning. We seen that when we won the cup.

He also can playmake, someone that has been missing from Hossa for somtime. He also makes plays happen on the power play. He's a veteran presence in te locke room. He has played for Q before so he knows what to expect. See he brings alot to the team.

Can you do your little math and tell mehow may power play goals he will produce on a line with Toews, Kane, and Seabrook & Sharp at the point?

 

[tbo41fan]

With a player that sat in front of the net (Buff) the Hawks beat the Canucks in the playoffs. Without him, they did not.

As for your sabremetric-like stats ... I'll give your credit for effort and really can't say much else because I have no idea how those kinds of statistics work (nor do I really care).

I don't think you're ever going to find a statistical correlation that will indicate how Brunette will do next season. Is he upgrading his linemates? No doubt. But there isn't a guarantee that it will work.

However, I believe it will. Why? Because with a 2nd line of Brunette/Sharp/Hossa, you have three different styles of play that work well together.

Brunette can win 50/50 pucks and get to the dirty areas to maintain possession of the puck. He can get the puck to Sharp/Hossa who then have the ability to pass/shoot/finish from all over the ice.

Imagine any 3 on 3 rush in for this line ... Brunette center drives to the net while Sharp and Hossa find the opening to make the pass and the goal. And if a save is made, bet on Brunette to be there to poke home a rebound.

Simple hockey tells you their line sets up very well.

The bolded part is exactly what me and icehog are trying to say...


He is a valuable asset to this team, and based off what he has done with past lines, we can EXPECT an increase in production, but nothing is ever guaranteed

 

[icehogfan08]

The bolded part is exactly what me and icehog are trying to say...


He is a valuable asset to this team, and based off what he has done with past lines, we can EXPECT an increase in production, but nothing is ever guaranteed

Yep and all we get was he scored 18 goals, the other cawk disappared then showed up talkng aout Carcillo

 

[ClydeLee]

Actually the Hawks kinda did win some of those Canuckles games because of a player who stood in front of the net.. in Ben Smith, recall game 6 eh?

Brunette for 1 year is not disaster of a frail player. It's a solid move for a team with a good couple of guys just a step away from being NHL players on the prospect sheet.

 

[tbo41fan]

Actually the Hawks kinda did win some of those Canuckles games because of a player who stood in front of the net.. in Ben Smith, recall game 6 eh?

Brunette for 1 year is not disaster of a frail player. It's a solid move for a team with a good couple of guys just a step away from being NHL players on the prospect sheet.

:yep: alot of the 1 year deals are just fillers for next year when lots of talent from Rockford should be making the leap...

 

[DMelt36]

Actually the Hawks kinda did win some of those Canuckles games because of a player who stood in front of the net.. in Ben Smith, recall game 6 eh?

Brunette for 1 year is not disaster of a frail player. It's a solid move for a team with a good couple of guys just a step away from being NHL players on the prospect sheet.

True. That's why I'll bet that, at some point this season, you'll see Smith skating with Toews/Kane. May not last too long, but I think he'll get a shot.

And yeah, I recall Game 6. Lucky enough to be there, best fan experience of my life.