LOL At Jeff Samardzija.

[beckdawg]

I know the Cubs this season were looking for sky high offers. Im not opposed to trading if the package is right, but it has to be right. The Cubs are to thin at pitching to make a mistake in tradin one.

Presumably, the return would have to include top pitching prospects unless he were part of a package for a MLBer so, it wouldn't necessary be a total loss. At this point, they should have a pretty good idea what it will take to re-sign him long term. If they aren't comfortable paying that now is probably the point they have the most value for him. Additionally, if they don't plan to sign him, every start he makes is a risk. We saw Garza go down last year before the trade deadline which may or may not have cost the cubs a chance at a better deal than they got.

Just running through a year end top 100 here's some of the pitching prospects

#4 Archie Bradley - D-backs
#7 Taijuan Walker - M's
#9 Noah Syndergaard - Mets
#13 Robert Stephenson - Reds
#16 Jameson Taillon - Pirates
#17 Dylan Bundy - O's
#18 Jonathan Gray - Rockies
#20 Mark Appel - Astros
#22 Kyle Zimmer - Royals
#23 Alex Meyer - Twins
#28 Yordano Ventura - Royals
#29 Lucas Giolito - Nats
#33 Eddie Butler - Rockies
#34 Kyle Crick - Giants
#35 Andrew Heaney - Marlins
#35 Matt Wisler - Padres
#38 Tyler Glasnow - Pirates
#40 Julio Urias - Dodgers
#44 Aaron Sanchez - Blue Jays
#45 Lucas Sims - Braves
#46 Marcus Stroman - Blue Jays
#50 Max Fried - Padres

Of these teams, I don't see why the D-backs, M's, Rockies, Astros, Twins, Marlins, and Padres would move for him given their situation. The pirates could make sense. Burnett is a FA, Wandy will be one after next year and Liriano has an option for this year. Taillon and Glasnow surely would be worth considering together or with other prospects. The Royals could be another potential suitor. They have Santana becoming a FA with Chen. Shields is a FA after next year. A package including Zimmer and/or Ventura would definitely be worth talking about. They also have Miguel Almonte who's the #51 pitcher. Both of those teams appear to be in win now mode and Shark would be affordable.

After those two teams I think it's a bit more difficult to see anything. If the Mets were willing to part with Syndergaard I could potentially see them being a suitor. They have Harvey and Wheeler as young guys with Gee and Niese having 4 years before becoming FAs. Additionally, Santana could come off their books this year so they presumably would have the money to sign him longer term. As for the rest of the teams, I'm not sure they have the win now mentality and the prospects to get a deal done.

 

[SilenceS]

You're confusing high with stupid.

So, you are stupid not high?

 

[brett05]

Honestly, unless he comes out and is dominate next year I'd expect the cubs to entertain trade offers at next years deadline. I also wouldn't be shocked to see him traded this offseason if they can get the required haul you would expect. Pitching is pretty weak this off season. An argument could be made that he is comparable to Garza who likely will be the top pitcher on the market. Garza will almost certainly get a qualifying offer as well. When you add that into the equation, giving up a top 5 prospect in your system with say a top 10 and a top 15 for Shark doesn't really seem that unreasonable.

As an example, if you are the White Sox, that probably gets it done. If you are a team like the Twins or the Cardinals, that's over paying.

 

[brett05]

Like I said, this year is the telling year. I think people have gotten to jumpy about some of these players. Baseball is a game of ups and downs. People seem to get to high and to down to quickly. One year doesn't make a player.

The problem is that Shark is at his max value now in a trade. If he does well early in 2014 you sign him, if he doesn't make strides on improvement his trade value drops steadily. Is it a risk to take? I think yes. Keep him and risk the trade value loss.

 

[brett05]

Just running through a year end top 100 here's some of the pitching prospects

#4 Archie Bradley - D-backs
#7 Taijuan Walker - M's
#9 Noah Syndergaard - Mets
#13 Robert Stephenson - Reds
#16 Jameson Taillon - Pirates
#17 Dylan Bundy - O's
#18 Jonathan Gray - Rockies
#20 Mark Appel - Astros
#22 Kyle Zimmer - Royals
#23 Alex Meyer - Twins
#28 Yordano Ventura - Royals
#29 Lucas Giolito - Nats
#33 Eddie Butler - Rockies
#34 Kyle Crick - Giants
#35 Andrew Heaney - Marlins
#35 Matt Wisler - Padres
#38 Tyler Glasnow - Pirates
#40 Julio Urias - Dodgers
#44 Aaron Sanchez - Blue Jays
#45 Lucas Sims - Braves
#46 Marcus Stroman - Blue Jays
#50 Max Fried - Padres

Of these teams, I don't see why the D-backs, M's, Rockies, Astros, Twins, Marlins, and Padres would move for him given their situation. The pirates could make sense. Burnett is a FA, Wandy will be one after next year and Liriano has an option for this year. Taillon and Glasnow surely would be worth considering together or with other prospects. The Royals could be another potential suitor. They have Santana becoming a FA with Chen. Shields is a FA after next year. A package including Zimmer and/or Ventura would definitely be worth talking about. They also have Miguel Almonte who's the #51 pitcher. Both of those teams appear to be in win now mode and Shark would be affordable.

After those two teams I think it's a bit more difficult to see anything. If the Mets were willing to part with Syndergaard I could potentially see them being a suitor. They have Harvey and Wheeler as young guys with Gee and Niese having 4 years before becoming FAs. Additionally, Santana could come off their books this year so they presumably would have the money to sign him longer term. As for the rest of the teams, I'm not sure they have the win now mentality and the prospects to get a deal done.

I agree with the bold. I'd also say that Jeff isn't the missing piece for the Pirates and I think his game would be below average in the AL so I eliminate those as well.

Given that, I think this is what is left.

 

[CSF77]

The problem is that Shark is at his max value now in a trade. If he does well early in 2014 you sign him, if he doesn't make strides on improvement his trade value drops steadily. Is it a risk to take? I think yes. Keep him and risk the trade value loss.

I agree with this.

Right now most teams don't know what he is yet. Even us. So his value is at a max right now.

It comes down to do you hold him for 2 years and let him walk? No that has not been the trend.

Has he earned a extension? No he has not.

I'd go 50%/50% right now if they deal him at the winter meetings.

Right now there is a better chance they extend Wood around 30 mil and they trade up Shark's last 2 years.

And to be honest regardless of what Shark becomes he is too big of a risk right now to gamble on becoming that ace. They would be better served signing J. J. on the market if they want to gamble coming in off of surgery. He has been an ace before. Shark never has.


Josh Johnson Has Elbow Surgery; Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training
By Tim Dierkes [October 1, 2013 at 11:21am CST]
Righty Josh Johnson underwent minor elbow surgery this morning to remove bone spurs, agent Matt Sosnick tells MLBTR. Dr. James Andrews performed the procedure, telling Johnson he feels the discomfort caused by the spurs was the cause of his struggles with the Blue Jays this year. No issues were found with Johnson's elbow ligament. Johnson will be throwing in five weeks, and will be ready for spring training.

Johnson, 30 in January, is eligible for free agency for the first time this offseason. His season in Toronto did not go as planned, ending in August with the elbow issue. He made 16 starts, posting a 6.20 ERA despite a good strikeout to walk ratio.

Sosnick, who also represents free agent hurler Ricky Nolasco, tells MLBTR Johnson will absolutely consider signing with the Blue Jays if they do not make a qualifying offer. Johnson loved playing for manager John Gibbons, and bought into the vision of GM Alex Anthopoulos. A one-year deal with incentives seems likely for Johnson.

 

[Boobaby1]

I agree with this.

Right now most teams don't know what he is yet. Even us. So his value is at a max right now.

It comes down to do you hold him for 2 years and let him walk? No that has not been the trend.

Has he earned a extension? No he has not.

I'd go 50%/50% right now if they deal him at the winter meetings.

Right now there is a better chance they extend Wood around 30 mil and they trade up Shark's last 2 years.

And to be honest regardless of what Shark becomes he is too big of a risk right now to gamble on becoming that ace. They would be better served signing J. J. on the market if they want to gamble coming in off of surgery. He has been an ace before. Shark never has.


Josh Johnson Has Elbow Surgery; Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training
By Tim Dierkes [October 1, 2013 at 11:21am CST]
Righty Josh Johnson underwent minor elbow surgery this morning to remove bone spurs, agent Matt Sosnick tells MLBTR. Dr. James Andrews performed the procedure, telling Johnson he feels the discomfort caused by the spurs was the cause of his struggles with the Blue Jays this year. No issues were found with Johnson's elbow ligament. Johnson will be throwing in five weeks, and will be ready for spring training.

Johnson, 30 in January, is eligible for free agency for the first time this offseason. His season in Toronto did not go as planned, ending in August with the elbow issue. He made 16 starts, posting a 6.20 ERA despite a good strikeout to walk ratio.

Sosnick, who also represents free agent hurler Ricky Nolasco, tells MLBTR Johnson will absolutely consider signing with the Blue Jays if they do not make a qualifying offer. Johnson loved playing for manager John Gibbons, and bought into the vision of GM Alex Anthopoulos. A one-year deal with incentives seems likely for Johnson.

Sounds like Cubs material.

 

[brett05]

I'd roll the dice with JJ, but it sounds like he wants to stay with the Jays. So to get him away it would take a big time offer. I think that risk is too big for a team like the Cubs to take.

 

[Boobaby1]

I'd roll the dice with JJ, but it sounds like he wants to stay with the Jays. So to get him away it would take a big time offer. I think that risk is too big for a team like the Cubs to take.

I think they should offer him a 3 year deal, and then deal Samardzija to beef up the farm with some more arms.

Right now, I would take Tanaka, JJ, Mike Morse, get rid of Barney, and trade Shark for prospects and call it a year.

That is well within their budget.

 

[SilenceS]

LOL at Jeff Samardzija.

Like I said depends on package but I don't find shark a risk bc he isn't a scrub pitcher. The cubs most likely will not compete next year. Unless the cubs get what they want there is no risk. What if he comes out and dominates the first half then you sold him at a low value. Teams are more on projecting then anything. I roll the dice all day over josh Johnson. Shark has had no injuries and put up a 200 inning season with a high strikeout rate. Josh Johnson hasn't been right in like 3 years. He has probably maxed out. Shark may have but can still gothe other way. You remember when theo said they are paying for future performance not past? The cud get what they want for him then alright but to trade him just to trade him would be a huge mistake. The reason sveum was fired was because of the lack of progression with castro rizzo and shark. They may want to see what he does with a new coach at the helm.

 

[beckdawg]

I agree with the bold. I'd also say that Jeff isn't the missing piece for the Pirates and I think his game would be below average in the AL so I eliminate those as well.

Given that, I think this is what is left.

I don't think you should ever count out the Royals from doing something silly. Last year they traded their #1, #4 and #5 prospects as well as a 20+ guy for Wade Davis and Shields. Myers was the #4 overall prospect, and Jake Odorizzi the #92 overall and presumably Montgomery would be top 150 or so. I'll concede Shields was probably the better pitcher at this point and you'd also need to figure in Davis. That being said, a top 5 prospect is worth worlds more than a top 25. And to give some idea of value, the source I took that from was suggesting the upside for Zimmer was #2 starter. I think Ventura was a #3. So, in that regard two unproven pitchers not yet in the majors with ceilings of #2/3 starters for a guy who would probably be a #3 in KC doesn't seem that crazy. And that's if it was those 2 for him. You very likely could start with Zimmer and use Almote and others lower on their chain.

Additionally, I don't really see how the Royals can make that trade and then not try and do something similar again. They are likely to lose at least one of Chen or Santana if not both. It's difficult to see them having the money to spend in FA with Shields incoming FA. They have 5 top 100 prospects so if they were to trade Zimmer and a pitcher in the 6-10 range like say Sean Manaea or Miguel Almonte and say Cam Gallagher(12th ranked C) they surely could land someone like Shark without gutting their farm system. They wouldn't have to pay a 1st round draft pick for any pitcher who gets a qualifying offer and Shark is still relatively cheap allowing them to resign one of Chen/Santana. And best case, Shark gets even better and they have a long term solution.

 

[brett05]

I don't think you should ever count out the Royals from doing something silly. Last year they traded their #1, #4 and #5 prospects as well as a 20+ guy for Wade Davis and Shields. Myers was the #4 overall prospect, and Jake Odorizzi the #92 overall and presumably Montgomery would be top 150 or so. I'll concede Shields was probably the better pitcher at this point and you'd also need to figure in Davis. That being said, a top 5 prospect is worth worlds more than a top 25. And to give some idea of value, the source I took that from was suggesting the upside for Zimmer was #2 starter. I think Ventura was a #3. So, in that regard two unproven pitchers not yet in the majors with ceilings of #2/3 starters for a guy who would probably be a #3 in KC doesn't seem that crazy. And that's if it was those 2 for him. You very likely could start with Zimmer and use Almote and others lower on their chain.

Additionally, I don't really see how the Royals can make that trade and then not try and do something similar again. They are likely to lose at least one of Chen or Santana if not both. It's difficult to see them having the money to spend in FA with Shields incoming FA. They have 5 top 100 prospects so if they were to trade Zimmer and a pitcher in the 6-10 range like say Sean Manaea or Miguel Almonte and say Cam Gallagher(12th ranked C) they surely could land someone like Shark without gutting their farm system. They wouldn't have to pay a 1st round draft pick for any pitcher who gets a qualifying offer and Shark is still relatively cheap allowing them to resign one of Chen/Santana. And best case, Shark gets even better and they have a long term solution.

Shields>Shark. That's the issue. Plus Shark coming to the AL makes him not nearly as valuable as an NL pitcher.
The Royals had a surplus of starters last year. Given the guys in the minors they will again this year. Is Shark better than Chen/Sanatana/ Top two pitchers in the minors? I am not going to answer that, but that is my point too. Shark just isn't the difference between a near playoff spot and the next step as it concerns the Royals.

 

[beckdawg]

Shields>Shark. That's the issue. Plus Shark coming to the AL makes him not nearly as valuable as an NL pitcher.
The Royals had a surplus of starters last year. Given the guys in the minors they will again this year. Is Shark better than Chen/Sanatana/ Top two pitchers in the minors? I am not going to answer that, but that is my point too. Shark just isn't the difference between a near playoff spot and the next step as it concerns the Royals.

The thing is they would have to give Chen and Santana probably $30 mil+ per year combined. Do they have that and enough to re-sign Shields? As for guys in the minors, you don't know if they are going to be anything let alone as good as Shark. I could see them going with Shields(signing him long term) and then pick one of Chen/Santana and signing them this FA period. They would then have Shark and Guthrie longer term along with Davis, Duffy and whomever they don't trade to compete for the end of their rotation over the next few years.

Also I wouldn't say they had a surplus of starters. They had 6 guys who made 15 starts. Hochevar had started in the past but was never really a quality starter.

 

[brett05]

The thing is they would have to give Chen and Santana probably $30 mil+ per year combined.

Probably closer to $20 million. Chen is 36, turning 37 next June and was paind $4.5 this year. Santana got $13 million this year and should get a raise on a longer deal.

Do they have that and enough to re-sign Shields?

Honestly I have no clue their financial situations. Do you?

As for guys in the minors, you don't know if they are going to be anything let alone as good as Shark.

I agree you don't know. But Shark in the NL is average at best right now. In the AL he'd be below average as it stands. Can that be had by the youth who you'd have under control for a lot lot longer than Shark?

Also I wouldn't say they had a surplus of starters. They had 6 guys who made 15 starts. Hochevar had started in the past but was never really a quality starter.

No he wasn't good as a starter. Just a 5th starter innings eater. But everyone said they had a surplus at the start. And Luke could go back to the rotation assuming he figured something out as a reliever.

 

[beckdawg]

Probably closer to $20 million. Chen is 36, turning 37 next June and was paind $4.5 this year. Santana got $13 million this year and should get a raise on a longer deal.


Honestly I have no clue their financial situations. Do you?


I agree you don't know. But Shark in the NL is average at best right now. In the AL he'd be below average as it stands. Can that be had by the youth who you'd have under control for a lot lot longer than Shark?




No he wasn't good as a starter. Just a 5th starter innings eater. But everyone said they had a surplus at the start. And Luke could go back to the rotation assuming he figured something out as a reliever.

If they have enough money to sign both chen and Santana then I agree it doesn't make a lot of sense but I think they will get more than you'd expect after having a good season.

 

[CSF77]

Samardzija Extension Appears Unlikely
By Steve Adams [October 28 at 3:13pm CST]
An extension between the Cubs and Opening Day starter Jeff Samardzija this offseason "looks like a long shot" according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Wittenmyer's sources indicate that a sizable financial gap exists between the two sides, and neither is confident that said gap can be closed this winter.

Samardzija, 28, completed his first 200-inning season in 2013, totaling a 4.31 ERA with 9.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 48.2 percent ground-ball rate. His ERA is surprising when considering his K/BB numbers and strong ground-ball rate, and indeed, sabermetric stats such as xFIP (3.45) and SIERA (3.60) feel that he had quite a bit of poor luck on his side.

Samardijza has transitioned from a solid setup man to a reliable rotation piece in recent years. He's racked up 388 1/3 innings in Chicago's rotation since Opening Day 2012 and figures to hold down a spot in their 2014 rotation as well, barring a trade.

The Cubs were willing to listen on Samardzija this July, with the Diamondbacks among the most frequently rumored teams to have interest. However, in the end, it was reported that the Cubs never got close to dealing the Notre Dame product and planned to discuss a long-term deal this offseason.

As shown in MLBTR's Extension Tracker, recent extensions for starting pitchers with between four and five years of service time include Matt Harrison (five years, $55MM), John Danks (five years, $65MM), Justin Verlander (five years, $80MM) and Felix Hernandez (five years, $78MM). Five years would seem is likely the target for agents Mark Rodgers and Sam Samardzija (Jeff's brother).

This is my own speculation, but the Danks contract may be the Samardzija camp's floor, as the 3.99 ERA compiled by Danks over his 383 1/3 innings prior to the extension is similar to the 4.10 mark that Samardzija owns over his past 388 frames. While Danks had a slight edge in ERA and control, Samardzija has Danks dwarfed in strikeouts, has a more impressive ground-ball rate and is considered a better pitcher in sabermetric circles.

Wittenmyer spoke with Samardzija's close friend and former teammate Ryan Dempster about the situation, with Dempster noting that Samardzija's strongest desire is to win with the Cubs. Wittenmyer points out that Samardzija has said all along that money isn't the biggest issue for him, but he also cautions that doesn't mean Cubs fans should expect a hometown discount. Samardzija has shown a willingness to go year-to-year at this point, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz expects a healthy raise on Samardzija's modest $2.64MM salary this offseason, projecting him to earn $4.9MM after the arbitration dust has settled.

Wittenmyer feels that barring an extension this offseason, Samardzija is certain to be dealt next July, if not this winter. The Cubs control Samardzija through the 2015 season, so dealing him with more than one year of team control left would maximize his trade value.

 

[patg006]

Angels reportedly shopping Trumbo for pitching.

bye, Jeff......

make it happen boy blunder

 

[brett05]

Re: LOL at Jeff Samardzija.

Angels reportedly shopping Trumbo for pitching.

bye, Jeff......

make it happen boy blunder

Don't see it for the Angels. Not enough

Sent from my SCH-I200 using Tapatalk

 

[JosMin]

Don't see it for the Angels. Not enough

Sent from my SCH-I200 using Tapatalk

I don't see where Trumbo is going to fit. Rizzo still needs time to develop and Trumbo is adequate at best defensively, whether he's in left or at first. The 30-homer potential is nice, but the lack of OBP, high strikeout total and lack of roster fit would be a concern. The one nice upside to Trumbo is that he's not eligible for free agency until '17. Considering the huge disparity in salary between Trumbo and what they would have to pay Samardzija, I just don't see that trade being a fit for both sides.

However, if Samardzija were to interest the Angels, I could potentially see them creating a package centered around Peter Bourjos and maybe a few young pitchers like Nick Maronde or R.J. Alvarez. Nice power arms with higher floors and a cheap centerfielder who excels at defense, base running and making contact. I wouldn't mind a trade like that.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't see why the cubs would want Trumbo. His OBP is terrible. Ideally he'd be playing at 1B which is filled. He also can play 3B but again soon to be filled. He's not a particularly good OF.