mlb draft june 8th-10th starts at 6 p.m. ET tomorrow

[beckdawg]

Not saying their bad players or picks..

Just that now they have a surplus of OFers that are projected to rise within next year or two..

Plus Schwarber, or Bryant who some suggest could end up in OF...

I personally think their setting up for a trade...

My personal view is people are over thinking this. Believe it or not the cubs don't really have amazing depth in the OF. It may seem that way because people are penciling in Soler for the next decade in RF and Bryant/Schwarber in LF. However, let's say Soler busts or gets hurt long term. You are then talking about Almora, McKinney and Eloy Jimenez as your OF in the top 10 prospects. Almora is obviously struggling. Jimenez is likely at least 4 years out. They have some other names like Mark Zagunis, Jacob Hannemann, Kevonte Mitchell and Bijan Rademacher but none of them are locks. The best of that group talent wise may be Mitchell but he too like Jimenez is probably 4 years out. Rademacher and Hannemann strike me as bench/4A types.

Mark Zagunis is an interesting name because in a lot of ways he's like Happ and Dewees. He's hitting .302/.436/.441 with 18.2%/15.1% bb/k rate in A+. He was drafted as a C but may end up in the OF. His bat probably plays as a starter but I'm guessing he would be a corner OF. That being said, both Dewees and Happ are better players than him based on their scouting. But he's an advanced college hitter with a good hit tool which is essentially what we're talking about them as.

Where teams often fall down is when they have 1 or 2 big name guys and don't have substantial depth behind them. Something like 40% of top 100 hitters end up being average MLB players. And honestly, until you have a guy stuck at AAA because someone is better at the MLB level there isn't really the concept of being blocked. So, I don't really see it as an issue. Either way, I don't see them drafting two OF's as a sure sign they are trying to trade Almora or whomever. I view it as them brining in more depth that appears to be able to hit. When they are stuck in AAA then I think you start talking trade set ups.

 

[beckdawg]

I feel Happ agreed to less cash than the pick and they took him.

From what I'm reading he's likely a neutral slot guy. In other words, not under but also not largely over. They might be able to get him cheaper but i don't think he's going to save them massively.

 

[Ari Bear]

I expected, and still do expect, Soler to be very good defensively. But he isnt right now

Lake isnt either.

 

[Ari Bear]

Really. How does that team keep in fist place with the bad luck?

Because they have good luck

 

[CSF77]

Because they have good luck

They have a better quality farm system and can replace talent from with in better. Losing their top hitter may be too big of a blow though.

 

[Ari Bear]

They have a better quality farm system and can replace talent from with in better. Losing their top hitter may be too big of a blow though.

That makes sense. Even so, it seems like they find a way to win regardless of their situation.

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs take Bryan Hudson

Fangraphs
Fastball: 45 / 50+
Curve: 50 / 55+
Change: 40 / 45+
Command: 40 / 50
Range: 87-91 mph tops out at 93

MLB.com

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
Illinois' best high school pitching prospect since the Astros made Mike Foltynewicz a first-round pick in 2010, Hudson is an extremely athletic and projectable left-hander whose stock continues to improve as the Draft approaches. He's a safe bet to go in the top three rounds, with some talk that he could become a supplemental first-rounder.

Hudson's best pitch is a 75-78 mph curveball with good depth that should add even more power once he adds strength to his skinny 6-foot-7 frame. He commands his breaking ball well, though he relies on it too often.

The Missouri recruit usually pitches at 86-90 mph and tops out around 92 with his fastball. With his arm action and projection, it won't be a surprise if he reaches the mid-90s in the future. He shows the makings of a changeup, though he doesn't trust it yet and doesn't need it much against high school competition.

 

[beckdawg]

Hudson is 6'7 205 and 18 so he has a pretty huge frame. Interesting as a lefty as well.

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs take DJ Wilson CF

Fangraphs
Hit: 20 / 45+
Game power: 20 / 40
Raw power: 45 / 45
Speed: 60 / 60
Field: 50 / 55
Arm: 45 / 45

MLB.com
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 30 | Run: 65 | Arm: 50 | Field: 60 | Overall: 45
While Chandler Day's stock has taken a downturn, Wilson's is headed in the opposite direction and he has surpassed his fellow Vanderbilt recruit as the best high school prospect in Ohio this spring. Teams that like Wilson see him as a Ben Revere-style player and could select him as early as the third round.

Wilson's game revolves around his well above-average speed. He uses a compact left-handed stroke to put the ball in play and use his quickness to beat out hits. His size and approach result in very little power, however, and he struggled at times against better competition on the showcase circuit last summer.

Wilson has all the ingredients to be a quality center fielder. He reads the ball well off the bat, covers plenty of ground, has average arm strength and makes accurate throws.

 

[Boobaby1]

OF, Darryl Wilson in round 4. Canton South High School from Ohio.

5-10" 165 Lbs.

Corey Patterson 2.0?

 

[beckdawg]

OF, Darryl Wilson in round 4. Canton South High School from Ohio.

5-10" 165 Lbs.

Corey Patterson 2.0?

Patterson was a top 5 pick. I personally like the pick. I feel that speed and defense are undervalued today and he's got that.

 

[Boobaby1]

Patterson was a top 5 pick. I personally like the pick. I feel that speed and defense are undervalued today and he's got that.

Sorry. I was merely referencing his size and speed. I hope he becomes a lead-off hitter in the future.

One thing seems for certain. It appears that the Cubs are going to get their TOR pitcher via trade, or more than likely through free agency. Either way, I am okay with as with all this young inventory on the current team, it keeps payroll down and gives them the flexibility to make moves like this.

Seeing that E-Jax only has one more year after this one, basically they can have a TOR pitcher, and payroll for the staff will basically stay about the same when losing guys like E-Jax (13m), Wada, (4M), and Wood, (5.685M).

That's a good start to a 22.5 million dollar pitcher if that's the route they go.

 

[Boobaby1]

Round 5. Cubs select 6'6", 230 LB Ryan Kellogg. LHP out of Arizona State.

Cubs so far have went with two tall LHP.

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs take Cyran Kellogg in the 5th

Fastbal: 45 / 45+
Slider: 40 / 45+
Curve: 40 / 45+
Change: 50 / 55
Command: 40 / 50
Range: 87-91 top end 92

Although he was looking like a stud his freshman year, he’s taken steps back the past two years. Jim Callis mentioned on the broadcast that he was better in the Cape Cod league last year, which could be what swayed the Cubs. He was ranked 171 to MLB.com, 150 to Kiley McDaniel, and 131 to BA. He’s another tall lefty – 6’5″ – but he lacks big velocity or stuff. Instead, he’s a guy who can work with four pitches. That means he can stay a starter, which is a good thing to find in an experience college lefty arm in the fifth round.

This looks to be right about where Kellogg was expected to be selected.

As a junior this year at ASU, Kellogg posted a 3.60 ERA over 16 starts, striking out 92 in 115 innings, walking 23.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
After a huge freshman year at Arizona State in 2013, it looked like Kellogg was pointing toward being one of the better college lefties in the Draft class of 2015. While he's been effective, he hasn't been quite as dominant as hoped.

At the outset, Kellogg looked more like a guy who would pitch in the low 90s with a power breaking ball. He's morphed a bit into more of a pitchability lefty, albeit one with three at least average offerings. His fastball sits more in the 90-91 range with some solid life when he keeps it down in the zone. He can spin a decent breaking ball and he mixes in a changeup that will be at least Major League average as well. Kellogg doesn't hurt himself with walks, but also doesn't miss a ton of bats, pitching to contact.

Even if Kellogg didn't develop into the pitcher scouts thought he would be, he still profiles as a starter who really knows how to pitch, a value especially as Day 2 of the Draft unfolds.

 

[CSF77]

This years draft is lacking impact talent.

 

[beckdawg]

Brett Jackson's brother just got drafted by seattle.

 

[PickSix]

3 out of first 4 picks play the same position.....short left handed hitting CF's. Do we have enough low end minor league teams to get these guys all on the field?
And 2 lefty P's.
BPA's or drafting for need?

 

[beckdawg]

3 out of first 4 picks play the same position.....short left handed hitting CF's. Do we have enough low end minor league teams to get these guys all on the field?
And 2 lefty P's.
BPA's or drafting for need?

Happ is probably not a CF. He's maybe a 2B but more likely a corner OF. As for minor leagues, You have AAA/AA/A+/A/A-/Rk plus some of the latin guys can go to the summer leagues. Also, another thing to consider is that you're not going to have a ton of depth on these teams. You might have 3 OF who have a shot to make the majors on some of the teams but not all of them. Happ and Deweese probably fly through rookie league after signing and end up quickly in A- and might push to A before the end of the year. Wilson probably stays in rookie league most of the year.

As far as approach, Kellogg seems like a value play. Lefties are harder to find obviously. he pitched well as a freshman but had a down year. They probably saw something more in him they could fix. I don't really want to talk about ceilings on these guys because it's hard to predict for any prospect but pitchers in general are just so difficult to judge. Edwards for example was drafted in the 40's in terms of rounds and those are guys you have very little hope for. But based on the scouting grades now you're probably looking at Kellogg having a shot at the back end starter. He has 4 pitches which is typically what you want out of a starter. Hudson might have middle of the rotation potential. He's got 2 pretty good pitches and as big as he is he might add in some speed to his fastball.

Overall, the baseball draft isn't really about drafting need in the traditional sense. As I mentioned earlier in the thread, the cubs didn't have much depth in the minors at OF(hence the draft playing this way). That's the "need" drafting. I think most people would think of need more as need at the major league level which is why I want people to make that distinction. As far as BPA, most of the ranking sights had the players the cubs drafted in the range they were drafted. Deweese is probably the only guy who was a really good value based on where he was drafted. Others were expected in that range.

 

[PickSix]

How do we find out who the scouts for each of these picks were?
I'd be concerned about a structural/communication issue in the scouting process. Each scout knows the future missing pieces..ie a lefty CF and lefty pitching. So each scout wants be the org hero and puts up these positional need guys as his BPA to say he found the missing piece for the organization.
Hope my skepticism is wrong.

 

[beckdawg]

Oh one more thing, the signability comes into play here as well. There's probably better talents than some of these guys who are HS players but with the way draft slot money works signing these guys can often be some what impossible. Typically rounds 1-10 the guys who get drafted you are pretty damn sure you will sign because if you don't you do get a compensation pick but you're losing a year of development. After the 10th round(believe this is accurate might be wrong) you no longer get compensation picks. So, there you will start to see guys who might not be signable players but are guys you hope to get signed by playing around with money.