Move on from Yu!!!!!!!

CubsFaninMN

Active member
Joined:
Jan 8, 2018
Posts:
581
Liked Posts:
120
Better to not sign anyone unless it is a TOR guy. Leave the cap space available and hope you get a crack at whoever turns out to be this years Verlander. Filling another spot with an expensive middle or bottom guy solves nothing for the playoffs.

Yep -- but if you sign a Chris Tillman, say, as a MOR guy (for not huge bucks) and then go for a TOR guy in the mid-season trade frenzy, you would have that guy to trade off to replace the other team's better starter. I'd rather do that than have to dip into the farm system once more, or lose a Happ or Baez, just to get a TOR guy mid-season for a WS push.

Anyone less than a TOR guy we pick up now has got to realize he'll be trade bait by July.
 

CSF77

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 16, 2013
Posts:
18,029
Liked Posts:
2,779
Location:
San Diego
I'm actually fine with Montgomery starting. He is in his last year of cheap control. If they traded him in July he would come with 3+ years of control. That can buy some minor league pitching depth which they need now.

As far as replacing him in the rotation they have Butler, Mills, Tseng and Alzolay. Add to that Underwood. All should be at Iowa after S/T. Then you have Smyly. He went into surgery 6/28/2017.

For baseball players, full rehabilitation takes about one year for pitchers and about six months for position players. Players typically begin throwing about 16 weeks after surgery.[4] While eighty percent of players return to pitching at the same level as before the surgery, for those Major League pitchers who receive the surgery twice, thirty five percent do not return to pitch in the majors at all.[5]

So we have a 80% recovery rate in 1 year. So basically he should be in the minors for around a month by the deadline and could fill in as the 5 or a 2 inning guy if Alzolay is ready to go at that point.

I don't see a problem if their goal is to go after Harper for RF next year and they are holding out on him. A line up of Schwarber/Bryant/Harper/Rizzo/Contreras/Heyward(CF)/Russell/Baez is pretty crazy and is worth letting Alzolay get a chance to break the rotation.

Now if Yu breaks down and takes their offer that is fine also. But I feel if Alzolay or Smyly can give plus production that cash is better used to go after a player on par with Bryant vs a 2nd tier player if you are looking at 25 mil plus per.
 

anotheridiot

Well-known member
Joined:
Jul 15, 2016
Posts:
5,935
Liked Posts:
799
Good luck with that...

Tell 700 players that are under contract and getting paid to sit out and lose money for 100 guys who are either looking for more years and or money then offered or are just guys that would be at end of rosters making a million bucks or so....
Not Happening

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

really? they get paid for spring training games? They have to report on certain dates, but play?
 

chibears55

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 18, 2013
Posts:
13,554
Liked Posts:
1,924
really? they get paid for spring training games? They have to report on certain dates, but play?
They get fined everyday they dont report...
So if they sit out most to all of it, their losing money..

Season dont start or start on time because they wanna strike, they lose money from their actual paychecks...

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

TC in Mississippi

CCS Staff
Joined:
Oct 22, 2014
Posts:
5,305
Liked Posts:
1,815
Nobody is boycotting shit. Players are angry and I get it. Can you imagine the shit they're getting from their wives right now? They need to find a place to live, kids in scholl, etc., etc. So some players and agents are blowing off steam. The agents promised players something they couldn't deliver. I do side slightly on the side of labor in the quagmire, but I see the owner's side too. This was a perfect storm with next year's FA class causing teams like the Yankees and Dodgers to spend less, only 2/3 of the teams actually competing and a correction for not-quite-superstar players all happening at once. The owners probably shouldn't have held quite this hard a line, but guys like JD Martinez expecting $210 mil didn't help either. Now you have the situation where no one wants to set the market. If Darvish signs Arrieta will have to sign quickly or teams will start turning to Cobb and Lynn and agents start to lose whatever leverage they have left. When guys do start to sign the market will move fast but no one wants to be the guy that lowers the value of other players and don't think the MLBPA isn't cautioning against this. The guys really getting hurt are guys like Jon Jay who had been convinced someone would give him a chance to start this year, but why would anyone sign Jay right now when so many players are still available? Darvish, Arrieta, Martinez and Hosmer will all get paid handsomely, they just won't get the years and the AAV, they'll get one or the other probably the AAV although Hosmer's supposed two seven year offers bely that to some degree, but I tend to think that's just an anomaly of the market if it's even true.

To the point of this post though, why the fuck would you just give up on signing Darvish now? Sure he's waiting but he's waiting because he hopes more teams get in and drive up his price which likely isn't happening but it's completely understandable why he would try. The Cubs probably have the best shot of him as any and maybe even at four years. If Milwaukee has a five year offer in as rumored the only reason he hasn't taken that is because he doesn't want to go there or is thinking someone else will come in at six years. That puts the Cubs in the driver seat, they probably know they can get him at five years but if they wait they could get him at four, so you wait. He's still the best option and I guarantee Arrieta is not signing before Darvish regardless. Would the Cubs be OK with Cobb or Lynn? Sure, for the regular season but then Q, Lester and Hendricks all have to perform and Alzolay has to be ready to pitch a playoff game in October. It's do-able but not predictable. So they wait. What else would they do?
 

CSF77

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 16, 2013
Posts:
18,029
Liked Posts:
2,779
Location:
San Diego
Nobody is boycotting shit. Players are angry and I get it. Can you imagine the shit they're getting from their wives right now? They need to find a place to live, kids in scholl, etc., etc. So some players and agents are blowing off steam. The agents promised players something they couldn't deliver. I do side slightly on the side of labor in the quagmire, but I see the owner's side too. This was a perfect storm with next year's FA class causing teams like the Yankees and Dodgers to spend less, only 2/3 of the teams actually competing and a correction for not-quite-superstar players all happening at once. The owners probably shouldn't have held quite this hard a line, but guys like JD Martinez expecting $210 mil didn't help either. Now you have the situation where no one wants to set the market. If Darvish signs Arrieta will have to sign quickly or teams will start turning to Cobb and Lynn and agents start to lose whatever leverage they have left. When guys do start to sign the market will move fast but no one wants to be the guy that lowers the value of other players and don't think the MLBPA isn't cautioning against this. The guys really getting hurt are guys like Jon Jay who had been convinced someone would give him a chance to start this year, but why would anyone sign Jay right now when so many players are still available? Darvish, Arrieta, Martinez and Hosmer will all get paid handsomely, they just won't get the years and the AAV, they'll get one or the other probably the AAV although Hosmer's supposed two seven year offers bely that to some degree, but I tend to think that's just an anomaly of the market if it's even true.

To the point of this post though, why the fuck would you just give up on signing Darvish now? Sure he's waiting but he's waiting because he hopes more teams get in and drive up his price which likely isn't happening but it's completely understandable why he would try. The Cubs probably have the best shot of him as any and maybe even at four years. If Milwaukee has a five year offer in as rumored the only reason he hasn't taken that is because he doesn't want to go there or is thinking someone else will come in at six years. That puts the Cubs in the driver seat, they probably know they can get him at five years but if they wait they could get him at four, so you wait. He's still the best option and I guarantee Arrieta is not signing before Darvish regardless. Would the Cubs be OK with Cobb or Lynn? Sure, for the regular season but then Q, Lester and Hendricks all have to perform and Alzolay has to be ready to pitch a playoff game in October. It's do-able but not predictable. So they wait. What else would they do?

Cubs offered Cobb 3/42 and he turned it down. Then they moved on to Darvish. Darvish has a 5 year offer. But it must not be a overwhelming AAV if he didn't take it. Most likely 5/100-110 range. I'm pretty sure if he has a offer for 4/100 with a option year that kicks in with innings pitched on the last year with a 10 mil buyout he would jump on it at this point.
 

TC in Mississippi

CCS Staff
Joined:
Oct 22, 2014
Posts:
5,305
Liked Posts:
1,815
I think Darvish gets 5/$130, with the 5th year being a vesting option, iwith an opt out after year 2 or 3 as a concession. I also think he ends up a Cub.
 

CSF77

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 16, 2013
Posts:
18,029
Liked Posts:
2,779
Location:
San Diego
I think Darvish gets 5/$130, with the 5th year being a vesting option, iwith an opt out after year 2 or 3 as a concession. I also think he ends up a Cub.

5/125 would be fair. But I would bonus 25 mil upfront. So something like 25 mil signing bonus then 15 mil year 1. Then 25 AAVyears 2 And 3. So years 4 and 5 his AAV drops to 17.5 which is reasonable for his age then.
 

The-0

New member
Joined:
Nov 24, 2016
Posts:
13
Liked Posts:
0
Pecota has the cubs at 89 wins, Vegas has 93.5. How many extra wins does yu get us compared to Montgomery? Arrieta?
 

chibears55

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 18, 2013
Posts:
13,554
Liked Posts:
1,924
Pecota has the cubs at 89 wins, Vegas has 93.5. How many extra wins does yu get us compared to Montgomery? Arrieta?
Pecota usually wrong

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

The-0

New member
Joined:
Nov 24, 2016
Posts:
13
Liked Posts:
0
Pecota nailed our win total last year. I see it as a 3-5 win difference as well. Yu on the high end of that arrieta on the low. It’s hard to move on from that.
 

CSF77

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 16, 2013
Posts:
18,029
Liked Posts:
2,779
Location:
San Diego
Expecting more wins then 10 out of Montgomery is a reach
 

chibears55

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 18, 2013
Posts:
13,554
Liked Posts:
1,924
Pecota nailed our win total last year. I see it as a 3-5 win difference as well. Yu on the high end of that arrieta on the low. It’s hard to move on from that.
Sure they'll come close on a couple teams but overall their off...

How do you make a prediction in February? Especially this year when there still a bunch of high end free agents unsigned

They have cubs starters at 55 and 42..
You see the ERA of the bullpen , their mostly in the 4s and 5s..lol
If pen that bad , their not winning 89 games..
Especially if they got Chatwood and Montgonery sucking ass with ERA in the 4s...

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

Parade_Rain

CCS Donator
Donator
Joined:
Aug 23, 2012
Posts:
9,995
Liked Posts:
3,630
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Illinois Fighting Illini
At this point I have had enough of the Yu Darvish soap opera. He clearly doesn't want to be here. Stop playing his game, come out as an organization and say No to Yu!!!!!!

Sign Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn and be done. Jake is a #3 starter on the downside of his career. If he doesn't want to take #3 starter money for 3-4 years come out as an organization and say Hell No to Jake. If Cobb thinks he is worth more then 4/64 say........(you know how this sentence ends)!!!!!!!

Sign Lynn and be done!!!!!!!

The Cubs forum should move on from you!!!!!!
 

TC in Mississippi

CCS Staff
Joined:
Oct 22, 2014
Posts:
5,305
Liked Posts:
1,815
Sure they'll come close on a couple teams but overall their off...

How do you make a prediction in February? Especially this year when there still a bunch of high end free agents unsigned

They have cubs starters at 55 and 42..
You see the ERA of the bullpen , their mostly in the 4s and 5s..lol
If pen that bad , their not winning 89 games..
Especially if they got Chatwood and Montgonery sucking ass with ERA in the 4s...

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Pecota is not a prediction system it's a projection system and overall the accuracy has been about 86% over the last ten years or so. Their algorithms are weighted towards similar players with similar outcomes so they don't do really well when players return from injury, or are injured and they also miss on improvements from young players often. Such as it is though it's a damn good guidepost. As far as the unsigned players Pecota changes weekly so ti will reflect that as guys sign.

As far as Montgomery and Chatwood how could you project them otherwise based on what they've done so far in starting roles? That's why I've been so insistent that the Cubs have to sign Darvish. Not only does it add a TOR it allows for depth. If Chatwood is at 5 and not performing you have Tseng and probably Alzolay by August or so if he performs in AAA. Now, again you can predict them to be better but you can't project that.
 

chibears55

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 18, 2013
Posts:
13,554
Liked Posts:
1,924
Pecota is not a prediction system it's a projection system and overall the accuracy has been about 86% over the last ten years or so. Their algorithms are weighted towards similar players with similar outcomes so they don't do really well when players return from injury, or are injured and they also miss on improvements from young players often. Such as it is though it's a damn good guidepost. As far as the unsigned players Pecota changes weekly so ti will reflect that as guys sign.

As far as Montgomery and Chatwood how could you project them otherwise based on what they've done so far in starting roles? That's why I've been so insistent that the Cubs have to sign Darvish. Not only does it add a TOR it allows for depth. If Chatwood is at 5 and not performing you have Tseng and probably Alzolay by August or so if he performs in AAA. Now, again you can predict them to be better but you can't project that.
Predictions or projections, the stats they show for the pitching is pretty bad, especially for the pen...

There no way they win 89 games with that pitching projection...


Anyways, yes i agree that they need another TOR type starter to improve the rotation, the bullpen ( keeping Monty there), and yes the pitching depth...

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

chibears55

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 18, 2013
Posts:
13,554
Liked Posts:
1,924
Heard that Epstein called last month on Archer and was told he can add a bench player but the return would be Russell and Baez...

Theo hung up the phone...lol

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

beckdawg

Well-known member
Joined:
Oct 31, 2012
Posts:
11,731
Liked Posts:
3,726
Heard that Epstein called last month on Archer and was told he can add a bench player but the return would be Russell and Baez...

Theo hung up the phone...lol

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Not putting this on you since you're just sharing what you heard but that deal wouldn't make much sense for Tampa. I could see them asking for one of the two Baez/Russell but several of their best current players/prospects are 2B/3B/SS types.
 

Top