Move on from Yu!!!!!!!

[chibears55]

Before signing Yu I was thinking that they would start using the farm instead and then move Hayward to CF and go deep on Harper

Now it is more remote. Adding him and then dealing with Bryant’s increases. It just feels like too much of a reach. The O is fine honestly. It lacks a lead off more than another power stick.

Hopefully Almora nails down CF this year and gets a chance and sticks at top of order...

Heyward i believe is gone after this season..
Whether he opts or gets traded..

Harper more then a "power stick"..
Guy a .300 hitter and .400 OBP type player..





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[fatbeard]

Heyward i believe is gone after this season..
Whether he opts or gets traded..

Cocaine is a helluva drug.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Why would Heyward opt out? He''s getting paid an outrageously high AAV, far above what anyone is going to pay him based on his offensive numbers from the past two seasons.

Do you think he would do so because he feels guilty making all that money, and wants to make all us Cub fans who yell that we're overpaying for him stop saying bad things about him on the internet?

If so, yeah -- that cocaine is really getting in and eating away at the ol' brain cells, buddy.

Trading him is no better of an option -- no one will take him *and* his salary. So, we end up paying for him, whether he plays for us or against us. Sort of like good ol' Edwin Jackson, we paid his salary right up to this year, IIRC.

Any other trades you'd like to suggest? Justin Wilson straight-up for Clayton Kershaw?

Just because you don't like a player (or, more particularly, the salary he's getting), doesn't mean you can just get rid of him and not pay his salary. Besides, I like having that Gold Glove out there patrolling right field (or maybe center, next year). Recall, players also contribute who give us defensive runs saved, as well as those who bat .300 and slug .500...

 

[beckdawg]

Why would Heyward opt out? He''s getting paid an outrageously high AAV, far above what anyone is going to pay him based on his offensive numbers from the past two seasons.

Heyward isn't going to opt out but I don't think it's fair to say he's outrageously over paid. Well check that, after this year I don't think it's fair to say that. He's making $28.166 mil this year so by basically any metric he's going to be over paid unless he has a 4-5 win season this year but that's not really the concern. The concern is the following 5 years. Those years he makes 20, 21x2 and 22x2 for his age 29-33 seasons. Cain just got 14, 15, 16, 17 and 18 for 32-36. So you're talking about the difference between them over those 5 years being $106 mil for 29-33 vs $80 mil for 32-36. That's a $21.2 mil AAV vs $16 mil or roughly $5 mil difference per year. Over parts of 8 seasons Cain has been worth 23.5 fWAR. If we cut off the first two "developmental" years of that it comes down to 22.2 fWAR over 6 seasons or 3.7 a season. Heyward has been worth 30.2 fWAR over parts of 8 seasons which is 3.8 a season but the thing to remember was he was in the majors at 18 and he's only going to be 28 where as cain will be 32.

To be worth the $106 mil left on his deal after this coming season he'd need to put up 13.25 wins if you're going by $8 mil per win but more than likely by that point it'll be closer to $9 mil a win which is 11.8. For the sake of argument let's say if he puts up anything between 11-14 wins you'd be happy. over 5 years that 2.2-2.8 fWAR per season. In a horrible hitting season of 2016 he was worth 1.5 wins. In other words, it's not that hard for Heyward to be at least worth his contract. And people underrate what he hit in 2017. He hit .259/.326/.389 which isn't what he can do(he's a career .262/.344/.412 hitter) but it's by no means "bad." If he upped his slugging to .400 it would probably have been above league average. But even if he doesn't regress again toward his career numbers, he hit .271/.351/.384 in 2014 and was a 5.1 fWAR player.

What's interesting about Heyward is ever since being traded from Atlanta his walk rate has dropped. It was 10.3% the year before the trade and over 10% every year but 2012 with the Braves. With the cards it dropped to 9.2%. With the cubs in 2016 it dropped to 9.1% Last year it dropped to 8.5%. That suggest to me that the cards and the cubs apparently were trying to tinker with him enough that it had an effect on his performance. That's one of the reasons it's interesting to hear Chili say he wants Heyward to get back to what he was comfortable with rather than what the org wants him to be.

 

[Iceman2385]

Doesnt Jhey have a no trade clause? So the trade idea seems like a reach. I still think r best chance is an opt out, but he would prob need close to career year for that to happen. That seems very unlikely. My guess is were stuck w him.

 

[beckdawg]

Doesnt Jhey have a no trade clause? So the trade idea seems like a reach. I still think r best chance is an opt out, but he would prob need close to career year for that to happen. That seems very unlikely. My guess is were stuck w him.

Honestly even if he has a career year I'm not sure he'd opt out. Look at this winter. And while people think it might get better next year would you throw away $106 mil guaranteed on a chance you may get more than $21.6 mil AAV? The only way I can realistically see Heyward opting out is if he has an MVP caliber season(6-7+ fWAR) where his offensive numbers look like the player people have always dreamed he could be. If he just puts up 5 wins and looks like the amazing defender average-ish hitter he's been in the past why would anyone give him more than he got before 2016?

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Heyward isn't going to opt out but I don't think it's fair to say he's outrageously over paid. Well check that, after this year I don't think it's fair to say that. He's making $28.166 mil this year so by basically any metric he's going to be over paid unless he has a 4-5 win season this year but that's not really the concern. The concern is the following 5 years. Those years he makes 20, 21x2 and 22x2 for his age 29-33 seasons. Cain just got 14, 15, 16, 17 and 18 for 32-36. So you're talking about the difference between them over those 5 years being $106 mil for 29-33 vs $80 mil for 32-36. That's a $21.2 mil AAV vs $16 mil or roughly $5 mil difference per year. Over parts of 8 seasons Cain has been worth 23.5 fWAR. If we cut off the first two "developmental" years of that it comes down to 22.2 fWAR over 6 seasons or 3.7 a season. Heyward has been worth 30.2 fWAR over parts of 8 seasons which is 3.8 a season but the thing to remember was he was in the majors at 18 and he's only going to be 28 where as cain will be 32.

To be worth the $106 mil left on his deal after this coming season he'd need to put up 13.25 wins if you're going by $8 mil per win but more than likely by that point it'll be closer to $9 mil a win which is 11.8. For the sake of argument let's say if he puts up anything between 11-14 wins you'd be happy. over 5 years that 2.2-2.8 fWAR per season. In a horrible hitting season of 2016 he was worth 1.5 wins. In other words, it's not that hard for Heyward to be at least worth his contract. And people underrate what he hit in 2017. He hit .259/.326/.389 which isn't what he can do(he's a career .262/.344/.412 hitter) but it's by no means "bad." If he upped his slugging to .400 it would probably have been above league average. But even if he doesn't regress again toward his career numbers, he hit .271/.351/.384 in 2014 and was a 5.1 fWAR player.

What's interesting about Heyward is ever since being traded from Atlanta his walk rate has dropped. It was 10.3% the year before the trade and over 10% every year but 2012 with the Braves. With the cards it dropped to 9.2%. With the cubs in 2016 it dropped to 9.1% Last year it dropped to 8.5%. That suggest to me that the cards and the cubs apparently were trying to tinker with him enough that it had an effect on his performance. That's one of the reasons it's interesting to hear Chili say he wants Heyward to get back to what he was comfortable with rather than what the org wants him to be.

Oh, I hear ya. I like the guy, and I think he'll end up straightening out to being worth enough in total fWAR to end up earning his contract. And as I say, I really like the defensive end of his performance a lot. I sometimes think people don't give his Gold Glove enough credit, even though he always has a nice DRS rating.

I was trying to infer that those who don't think he's worth his contract think he ought to opt out, but for the life of me I can't think of any other reason they think he would do so than "because they said so"...

 

[beckdawg]

Oh, I hear ya. I like the guy, and I think he'll end up straightening out to being worth enough in total fWAR to end up earning his contract. And as I say, I really like the defensive end of his performance a lot. I sometimes think people don't give his Gold Glove enough credit, even though he always has a nice DRS rating.

I was trying to infer that those who don't think he's worth his contract think he ought to opt out, but for the life of me I can't think of any other reason they think he would do so than "because they said so"...

Yeah I guess I'm just a bit overly defensive because I feel like some people wrongly assume that Heyward's deal is a giant albatross when it really isn't. After this season he's fairly affordable albeit not an "amazing" value based on recent play. But then most FA aren't amazing value. That's kind of the point of FA.

 

[chibears55]

Cocaine is a helluva drug.

Why would they keep Heyward if he chooses not to opt out if they are going after Harper ?


Almora can handle CF..



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[anotheridiot]

Yeah I guess I'm just a bit overly defensive because I feel like some people wrongly assume that Heyward's deal is a giant albatross when it really isn't. After this season he's fairly affordable albeit not an "amazing" value based on recent play. But then most FA aren't amazing value. That's kind of the point of FA.

Its not if he could hit and drive in runs like they expect him to. But then again, this Darvish deal is "cheap" since Kershaw and Greinke were so grossly overpaid. If this is a spot on deal, then Lester is grossly overpaid. Its all who you compare him to.

I said from the get go that Heyward was never the same after getting hit in the face and that is more of Theo's fault than Heywards fault. If he does start hitting, it just takes a little chin music to shut him back down. He got paid for what he should have done for the cubs, not what he did for the braves or when he started his decline with the cardinals with power numbers, even though he still hit enough.

Anyway, what is the choice with Heyward, he had full no trade years 1-3, limited no trade 4-5 and gets his 10/5 year rights. They need to play him because he needs to reach 550 plate appearances to even keep his opt out rights.

 

[fatbeard]

Why would they keep Heyward if he chooses not to opt out if they are going after Harper ?


Almora can handle CF..



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They would keep him because his contract is un-tradeable.

 

[chibears55]

Why would Heyward opt out? He''s getting paid an outrageously high AAV, far above what anyone is going to pay him based on his offensive numbers from the past two seasons.

Do you think he would do so because he feels guilty making all that money, and wants to make all us Cub fans who yell that we're overpaying for him stop saying bad things about him on the internet?

If so, yeah -- that cocaine is really getting in and eating away at the ol' brain cells, buddy.

Trading him is no better of an option -- no one will take him *and* his salary. So, we end up paying for him, whether he plays for us or against us. Sort of like good ol' Edwin Jackson, we paid his salary right up to this year, IIRC.

Any other trades you'd like to suggest? Justin Wilson straight-up for Clayton Kershaw?

Just because you don't like a player (or, more particularly, the salary he's getting), doesn't mean you can just get rid of him and not pay his salary. Besides, I like having that Gold Glove out there patrolling right field (or maybe center, next year). Recall, players also contribute who give us defensive runs saved, as well as those who bat .300 and slug .500...

Im not saying he will opt out, just you never know.. it an option for him

I think it more likely he'll get traded..
Cubs will eat a portion of the money if that what it'll take to move him and bring in Harper..

He'll be 29, plenty of teams may be willing to add a defensive RFer who'll hopefully improve his hitting this year for 15 + per (cubs eat some salary) , next 4 years..




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[chibears55]

They would keep him because his contract is un-tradeable.

No it not....



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[CSF77]

And the crew just posted the white flag:

Brewers To Sign Wade Miley

 

[fatbeard]

No it not....



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This is delusional. Heyward is still owed $106mil after 2018. No one is going to accept that contract for, at best, a 2-win player. The Cubs would have to eat $50mil to make that realistic, and that's not going to happen. Just stop.

 

[chibears55]

This is delusional. Heyward is still owed $106mil after 2018. No one is going to accept that contract for, at best, a 2-win player. The Cubs would have to eat $50mil to make that realistic, and that's not going to happen. Just stop.

Youre in the minority on that thought..

He'll be owed 20 21 21 22 22 ages 29 to 33..

Cubs eat 5+ per , a team would just owe him 15+ for him per.
That a bargain for most teams in today market..

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[brett05]

Youre in the minority on that thought..

He'll be owed 20 21 21 22 22 ages 29 to 33..

Cubs eat 5+ per , a team would just owe him 15+ for him per.
That a bargain for most teams in today market..

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For a declining player that can't get 2 war? That's a huge overpay

 

[fatbeard]

Youre in the minority on that thought..

He'll be owed 20 21 21 22 22 ages 29 to 33..

Cubs eat 5+ per , a team would just owe him 15+ for him per.
That a bargain for most teams in today market..

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Lorenzo Cain is a reliable 3-4 win player and he just signed for 16mil AAV.

So what you're saying is someone is going to trade for Heyward, who is--at best--a two-win player who provides half of Cain's value, and pay him the same money that Cain is making, and that this constitutes "a bargain."

Maybe you need another cup of coffee...or several?

 

[brett05]

The value of WAR was up until recently 8 million per. I believe that total has dropped a ton

 

[chibears55]

Guarantee to you two..

Heyward at age 29 were a FA after this year he would get 15-17 per offers..



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