Move on from Yu!!!!!!!

[beckdawg]

Predictions or projections, the stats they show for the pitching is pretty bad, especially for the pen...

There no way they win 89 games with that pitching projection...

I haven't looked at the projections for individual players but the team stats look fine. They have the cubs offense as best in the NL and third overall behind Houston and NYY. They have the cubs 7th in runs against. Their at +/- +89. In 2017 the closet team to +89 was Boston who was +117 and won 93 games. In 2016, Tor and LAD won 89 and 91 games with +93 and +87 run diffs. So to see them have the cubs projected at 89 wins isn't really that surprising.

Basically their projecting the cubs will slug their way to wins more so than pitching their way to wins. But effectively it doesn't matter how you score more runs so long as you do. That's not to say the cubs are just fine as is but I don't think it's a bad projection.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Move on from Yu?

Looks like you'll have to wait six years to do that...

 

[Ari Bear]

Move on from Yu? How about move on with Yu!

 

[anotheridiot]

Never liked the Lester signing, not too interested in this one either. Next 3 years Jake will be the better pitcher, then the window closes because no way we are going to be able to pay all these guys market value and the tax is not raised enough.

Rizzo is underpaid, Bryant will keep breaking arby records, Russell, Baez, Contrares and if Schwarber turns it around its done anyway.

Here I thought the team did not want to go to a fifth year to get either of these guys, but sixth?

 

[Parade_Rain]

Never liked the Lester signing, not too interested in this one either.

Lester started the ball rolling. He was the Trumpeter signing that announced the Cubs were truly competitive. 3 years and 3 Final Fours later you're here to say you didn't like the signing and don't like this one either? This is considerably meatballish to me.

 

[fatbeard]

Never liked the Lester signing, not too interested in this one either.

And if Jon Lester never pitches another game for the Cubs, his contract will have been worth it. So how's that working out for you, Nostradamus?

 

[anotheridiot]

Mr Meatball here, just biding the time til every one wants two guys to opt out... Yeah Yu does not trust his defense and tries to strike everyone out instead of saving pitch counts so his K/9 is always good. The record, not so good. Clearly shit the bed in the playoffs while tipping pitches. At least lester had some proven playoff experience.

Lester signed while the cubs proclaim, we cannot develop a top of the rotation starting pitcher.

Now they again proclaim, three years later and we still cannot develop a top of the rotation starting pitcher.

They got away cheap on Arrieta and apparently they expect him on his knees or bent over taking another cheap deal.

Jake out pitched Lester making 20 million in 2015 while he made 3.630
Jake outpitched Lester making 25 million in 2016 while he made 10.7

Last year was the first year Lester did as well as Jake, 25 million to 15.637.500

Jake has made 32 million his entire career.

Now no doubt they stay in this luxury tax with arby coming up on the core position players because they had to have this guy, or be forced to trade some away.

I'd buy that for Jake, not this non playoff performer.

 

[fatbeard]

Mr Meatball here, just biding the time til every one wants two guys to opt out... Yeah Yu does not trust his defense and tries to strike everyone out instead of saving pitch counts so his K/9 is always good. The record, not so good. Clearly shit the bed in the playoffs while tipping pitches. At least lester had some proven playoff experience.

Lester signed while the cubs proclaim, we cannot develop a top of the rotation starting pitcher.

Now they again proclaim, three years later and we still cannot develop a top of the rotation starting pitcher.

They got away cheap on Arrieta and apparently they expect him on his knees or bent over taking another cheap deal.

Jake out pitched Lester making 20 million in 2015 while he made 3.630
Jake outpitched Lester making 25 million in 2016 while he made 10.7

Last year was the first year Lester did as well as Jake, 25 million to 15.637.500

Jake has made 32 million his entire career.

Now no doubt they stay in this luxury tax with arby coming up on the core position players because they had to have this guy, or be forced to trade some away.

I'd buy that for Jake, not this non playoff performer.

How is it the fault of Cubs management that Arrieta got screwed by baseball's labor rules?

One of the most poorly-reasoned posts I've read on here in a while. Congrats.

 

[chibears55]

https://twitter.com/bradrobinson8/status/962501238943289345

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[fatbeard]

https://twitter.com/bradrobinson8/status/962501238943289345

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

I'm still shocked the Cubs paid $21mil AAV for Darvish. And that people are complaining about it.

Two years ago the Cubs had to pay a 37-year old John Lackey $16mil AAV.

 

[chibears55]

I'm still shocked the Cubs paid $21mil AAV for Darvish. And that people are complaining about it.

Two years ago the Cubs had to pay a 37-year old John Lackey $16mil AAV.

I think some people are hung up too much on his WS performance and forgot what he did in his start against Dbacks and Cubs...

For what TOR starters are getting paid, the Cubs are paying peanuts for him at 21 per.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[anotheridiot]

I'm still shocked the Cubs paid $21mil AAV for Darvish. And that people are complaining about it.

Two years ago the Cubs had to pay a 37-year old John Lackey $16mil AAV.

6 years of guaranteed money for a 31 year old pitcher.

I thought the holdup was going to 5 years.

Never mind though, apparently Jake turned down this same deal, so he either did not want back or boreass wanted more guaranteed money, which shows a lack of confidence in a players ability to perform. Jake will probably need to settle for 4/100 which makes him more expensive anyway.

 

[CSF77]

How is it the fault of Cubs management that Arrieta got screwed by baseball's labor rules?

One of the most poorly-reasoned posts I've read on here in a while. Congrats.

I'm trying to figure that out also.

2015: Jake: 7.3 WAR John: 5 WAR
2016: Jake: 3.8 WAR John: 4.4
2017: Jake: 2.4 WAR John: 2.7

They both regressed over a 3 year period but Jake's was much more pronounced.

You can pretty much say John is regressing with age. Jake had a crazy run but lost velocity and is now sitting at 2.4 WAR is pretty realistic.

Boras is pushing buttons that buyers are not buying into. They are seeing a guy that lost velocity earlier than expected and had to adjust his mechanics to compensate. But at the end of the day 2.4 WAR is MOR and not worth 25 Mil per.

What Theo offered him was very generous and honestly not deserving.

 

[fatbeard]

6 years of guaranteed money for a 31 year old pitcher.

I thought the holdup was going to 5 years.

Never mind though, apparently Jake turned down this same deal, so he either did not want back or boreass wanted more guaranteed money, which shows a lack of confidence in a players ability to perform. Jake will probably need to settle for 4/100 which makes him more expensive anyway.

The Cubs went to six years to lower the AAV and stay under the luxury tax, that way they can spend on next year's banner FA class without getting hit by the escalating penalties. They secured a WS-contender rotation for the next three years, and you're bitching about what might be a few bad years on the end of Darvish's contract (though he's tradeable in years 5 & 6). They're in a three year window now. Why is this so hard?

 

[fatbeard]

Yu Darvish will make $19mil and $18mil, respectively, in the last two years of his contract (2022 & 2023). Those will be his age 35 and 36 seasons. He is tradeable in both years.

In contrast, the Cubs paid John Lackey $16mil each year for his age 37 and 38 seasons.

If you're bitching about this contract, you're a moron.

 

[anotheridiot]

The Cubs went to six years to lower the AAV and stay under the luxury tax, that way they can spend on next year's banner FA class without getting hit by the escalating penalties. They secured a WS-contender rotation for the next three years, and you're bitching about what might be a few bad years on the end of Darvish's contract (though he's tradeable in years 5 & 6). They're in a three year window now. Why is this so hard?

How can they spend next year when this puts them over the tax? Who is coming off the books next year? Heyward wont leave and they wont trade Zobrist in year 4.

Hendricks will have another good year and "break the bank" at 8 million and be too expensive. Raises are coming. The teams that are preparing for next years big free agents are simply not spending now.

I am sure this forum will be full of guys looking for Kershaw opting out and signing Harper with no room

 

[fatbeard]

How can they spend next year when this puts them over the tax? Who is coming off the books next year? Heyward wont leave and they wont trade Zobrist in year 4.

Because baseball's luxury tax is a soft cap. You can go over and pay the premium, but the penalty becomes more draconian over time. You can "reset" your budget by going back under the luxury tax for a season. That's why teams like the Dodgers were cutting payroll this year; they want to get back under the luxury tax threshold so that they can "reset" their penalty and then splurge during next years incredible crop of FA talent.

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/mlb-luxury-tax-dodgers-yankees-giants-tigers-nationals-paying-2019-fa-class-cba-harper-machado/ofl3a6nhs1qk17v17iqubxjrz

[url]https://www.fangraphs.com/library/business/luxury-tax/
[/URL]

 

[CSF77]

Basically if you go over the cap you pay tax for every dollar gone over.

The % is based off of how many times in a row you go over.

Let’s say they did sign Jake. He would cost 25 mil and 17 mil would be over (aprox) 17.5% would put that at 19.275. Or 2.275 mil taxed.

Year 2: 30%. or 5.1 mil tax and if they went after Harper you can add 30% to his payday.

Then 40% more year 2 and 50% year and beyond.

That is why signing Jake is about stupid. Just drop the love affair.

 

[chibears55]

How can they spend next year when this puts them over the tax? Who is coming off the books next year? Heyward wont leave and they wont trade Zobrist in year 4.

Hendricks will have another good year and "break the bank" at 8 million and be too expensive. Raises are coming. The teams that are preparing for next years big free agents are simply not spending now.

I am sure this forum will be full of guys looking for Kershaw opting out and signing Harper with no room

If they really want to sign Harper next off season, i predict if Heyward dont opt out , theyll trade him even if they have to eat money and or get back low end prospects in a deal..

I think Harper will be their main and pretty much only FA theyll go after..

They wont need SP, bullpen: sure they can always improve but wont spend much on it, position players are pretty much set (Almora will hopefully lock down CF), bench is pretty much set..

As of now, there not much needed for next year as most everyone under team control/signed pass 2019..

Payroll next 4 yrs without ARBs

$81.000
$53.000
$41.000
$40.000

I think their in good shape as Luxery tax goes above 200 Ks



Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

Before signing Yu I was thinking that they would start using the farm instead and then move Hayward to CF and go deep on Harper

Now it is more remote. Adding him and then dealing with Bryant’s increases. It just feels like too much of a reach. The O is fine honestly. It lacks a lead off more than another power stick.