All the same, it is too much to spend the first rounder on him for this team, to me; it doesnt have to be spent on a DE as long as you put it towards a difference maker, and ideally to me it is spent on the OL so that Caleb keeps a cleaner jersey. Garrett puts this team in a great position but we should not be getting into a bidding war, doing so will blow past what a team in this position should pay for one player. Which is why you must place a hard cap on what you would spend, and the most comparable trade I can conceive for a past comparison is the Mack trade, 2nd rounder and a third-day pick the following year. Most teams will pay more for Garrett because the ideal landing spots for him are shoe ins for the playoffs.
And the 5th year option is of great value . I am not going to get into the leverage part because that is entirely subjective, depends entirely on how the negotiator uses it, and every option in my contracts (not for athletes though) are drafted with the intent that they are exercised so that you can negotiate follow on deals without the need to get it done under duress (which saves my client money). The big value is that it gives a franchise the opportunity to retain a star when negotiations do not result in a contract and you need time. And so I do not know what you mean with a probability statement that you would be dealing with a player on the fringes - it happens every year.
Ja'Marr Chase,
Jaycee Horn,
Micah Parsons are all playing on the fifth year option right now. Patrick Surtain II had his option exercised in April and was just signed to a new deal in September. It is a cost-controlled insurance policy just as much as a franchise tag is, and is just as important of a tool.
