Nady or Dunn.....

[poodski]

Lilly's 12M
Lee 13M
Nady 3M
Vizcaino 1M
Howry ___
Bradley (money coming for Silva)

Then, maybe non-tender players: Hill, Baker and even Guzman.

Also, half of Kosuke maybe.

The RS will be up there, the Yankess, The Phillies are rising, Cardinals (if they sign Albert), possibly the WS because I think they will keep Konerko and AJ and they wil make about the same. It all depends on the offseason...if the Cubs make minor moves, I don't see them in the top 5.

Well top 5 is kinda of a silly benchmark to be honest. A few teams could go big and be a top 5 salary for a year and its blown out of proportion. Just because a few teams spend high doesnt mean we should just spend to be a top 5. Regardless I think 140 will be top 5. So thats where I will put my numbers at.

So right now we have 8 players (Sori, Z, Fuku, Silva, Demp, Bird, Shark, Grabow) guaranteed a contract next year making a total of 86.9 Million dollars. If you want to count the money we get for Silva that number comes down to 81.4M, but you don't really know if the Cubs will count that. The payrolls you see out there count his entire salary towards the Cubs. So for the basis of this I am not going to take the 5.5 off.

Now we have to add Aramis to that. Who will be getting 14.6M so now we are up to 101.5M for 9 players.

Now we get to our big 3 arbitration players. Soto, Marmol and to an extent Marshall. I think between the 3 it's going to be around 12 million dollars. I might be a little high or even low, but that's about where I see it. Theriot got 2.6 million in his first year, and all three of these guys are better and Marmol and Marshall are in their second year.

So now we are up to 12 players and sitting at 113.5M. Gorzy is certainly in for a decent raise. Lets say 2 million for him so now are at 115.5M for 13 players. If you keep any of Baker, Hill, or Guzman its going to be around a million a piece. I will assume we keep two of the three. So 117.5 for 15 players. So now we have the other 10 lets say they make a total of 5 million. So now we are sitting at 122.5M just for the current team. That does leave you around 17.5M to get Dunn, but if you get Dunn that's about all you have the money for. The team is going to want to get a RH reliever (Kerry Wood), so that's going to take up some money. Plus going to need to get a decent backup INF or possibly a catcher. Plus there is all this talk about bringing Lilly back.

If we get Dunn thats it. You are most likely looking at Fuld as your 5th OF'er. Looking at another terrible year for the bullpen outside of Marmol/Marshall. Definitely no getting another SP, and doing nothing about getting some sort of player that can play 3B when Aramis is out.

I just don't think the money is there for it.

 

[waldo7239117]

The raises for non-tender contracts:

Marmol: 2.125 to around 4.
Baker (if not non-tender) 975K to around 1.3. I see him being traded and not non-tender.
Marshall: 950K to around 2M.
Guzman: 825K to around 950K. I thin if the Cubs were going to non-tender him, they will trade him first.
Gorzelanny: 800K to around 1.5M.
Hill: 700K to around 900K. I think he will be non-tender.
Soto: 575K to around 4M.
Paying Silvas contract: 5.5M

Then, the Cubs subtract;
Lilly: 13M
Lee: 13M
Miles: 1M
Howry: 297,268
Tracy: 900K
Vizcaino: 500K

Money coming off: 29,829,500.
Money with the possible arb raises (counting the ones that could be non-tender): 14.65.
Money coming off-possibe arb cases: 15,179,500.

Add that to the payroll Cots Baeball contracts, of the payroll they have for next year (adding the arb cases they don't have.): $118,175

The, add 3 more million for minor league players that could make team and get paid. 3M is probably going to be more but it's better to be hight than low: $121,175.

This is the payroll the Cubs could be looking at with no moves with arb cases. Also, non-tender canidates and trades could be made, to lower the payroll.

2010 payroll: $144,359,000
2011 payroll: $121,175,000 (member with no moves into consideration, just possible raies in arb)

And that=23,184,000 will be subtracted from this year payroll. So, if Ricketts want to keep the same payroll, JH will have about 20-23M to spend this offseason and that's enought for Dunn and another player or two.

Thoughts? I know I'm wrong but this was fun to look into.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

What money is coming off?

This payroll is already really really high.

Unless we move Fukudome and/or Z I dont see the room for anyone like Dunn either.

Thats keeping a top 5 payroll.

x2
:clap:

 

[Jntg4]

My point is that if they ahve no chance at Dunn, why does the team keep getting quoted about attempting to get Dunn. Not just the players, but executives from withing the organization.

 

[JustinTCB]

Regardless of your guesses and what not, Waldo, you forget that payroll is going down. The $144 million payroll is going away for a few years, and the days of cost-controlled players getting all the playing time is in.

I'd be shocked if payroll is above $130-$133 million, and really, only that high if they keep all the big contracts.

 

[waldo7239117]

I know the payroll is going down...and I want it to go down. I want to see the Cubs play, but I'm just saying they do have money for Dunn if they want him.

 

[waldo7239117]

Here's another article about the payroll:

Projecting the Cubs 2011 payroll | Cubs Pack

 

[Jntg4]

I was about to post that:
Projecting the Cubs 2011 payroll | Cubs Pack

 

[poodski]

My point is that if they ahve no chance at Dunn, why does the team keep getting quoted about attempting to get Dunn. Not just the players, but executives from withing the organization.

What do you expect them to say?

Hoffpauir or bust?

 

[poodski]

Here's another article about the payroll:

Projecting the Cubs 2011 payroll | Cubs Pack

I was about to post that:
Projecting the Cubs 2011 payroll | Cubs Pack

God thats a bad fucking article.

 

[poodski]

I mean just a terrible article.

You guys make fun of Waldo, but what he wrote on here was much more intelligible than that garbage.

 

[DewsSox79]

poodski is the real deal cub fan. very nice to not see another meatball fan in the cubs forum!

 

[Captain Obvious]

you guys are completley delusional. Wow! way to miss every specific fact in this whole cubs organization. it is this fantasy land that you guys live in. put down the cubbie kool aid for a second and actually read about this team financially, read every specific document on your new owner. you wont get dunn, and i will sig bet all of you for 1 year of wearing a cubs logo.

what is going to be the next statement? he is great for club house chemistry? he has fire and passion?

I'll take that bet. If the Cubs sign Dunn, you have to wear a sig of my choice for 1 year. If they don't, I wear a sig of your choice for a year. -

 

[X]

poodski is the real deal cub fan. very nice to not see another meatball fan in the cubs forum!

lulz.

 

[Jntg4]

Forget the whole financials for now. Make this just "Who would you rather have?"

 

[poodski]

Dunn.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

If cash is no object whatsoever..

Dunn in a heartbeat.

 

[DewsSox79]

I'll take that bet. If the Cubs sign Dunn, you have to wear a sig of my choice for 1 year. If they don't, I wear a sig of your choice for a year. -

 

[Jntg4]

Levine thinks the Cubs will spend. Dunn and Hudson, but also rather than adding a pitcher, calling up Jackson, and possibly Archer (for Archer with the next year 1nd a half, for Jackson, beginning of next season. He did say that he thinsk spending is the wrong move though. But anybody except Castro is apparently available and Z is drawing strong interest from the Mets and Dodgers.

 

[DewsSox79]

again, no matter this false resurgence of zambrano.....you will still have to eat most of the contract. fools gold on his recent performance.