I think it's more than that. If only that, it could be offset by special circumstances such as a weak 2022 draft class (in the teams position of need) compared to a stronger 2023 draft class.
Your example also leaves out the fact the the player that created additional value because of experience is also one year closer to no longer being on his rookie contract.
So there are most certainly mitigating factors that can offset your example.
I think it has a much to do with the uncertainty, of trading a known commodity for an unknow commodity, in which case you depreciate the value of the unknown.
Would the Houston Texans trade their 2023 first round pick to the Cincinnati Bengals, for their 2022 first round pick?
I think Cincy would do it in a heart beat.
In this particular case, if they just "swapped" 1sts with the Bears, and the Bears performed better than expectations, the Giants are screwed, If they knew for a fact that the Bears pick would be a top 3 pick, that changes things considerably, but there is no way of knowing that.