*OFFICIAL* Offseason Rumors, Signings, and Shenanigans

Bearly

Bearly

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Mighty Joe Young said:
In most cases, I would agree with you. But there is a time and place where conventional wisdom does not apply, and I believe it is here.

Its the combination of trading Quinn, the Bears in a rebuild, AND this draft supposedly being very "middle" heavy - not a ton of top end talent, but supposedly a lot of second and third-round talent that could potentially extend into the fifth round.

What does holding onto Quinn do for the Bears exactly? Fans get to have a hard dick over a guy who is on the wrong side of 30 and had a career year coming back to a team that will be lucky to win more than 3 games with him, heading into the period of an NFL player's life where production drastically starts to decline and can fall off a cliff, meanwhile he's taking up cap space and when he does go, you get nothing for him?


For all the people who think I'm crazy, someone explain to me how the ABOVE makes total sense for a rebuilding team, and keep your personal feelings out of it?


IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.

Not in this situation. If we were talking about Roquan Smith here, then yeah, I'd get that. That's a guy whose young, good, should be peaking when this team is ready, and so if you WERE going to trade him, you damn sure better get a high value for him.

But we aren't talking about Smith. We're talking about Quinn - over 30, had a career year after a TERRIBLE one, and is soaking up a LOT of cap space. And as I said, this is supposedly a DEEP draft.

You wait until draft day, and then you trade Quinn for as much as you can get for him. There is NO POINT to being stubborn here. You draft right, you can get a potential starter or at least good contributor with the pick (even if it is low 3rd, high 4th, which is where I think it lands because of his contract), and the money you save can go toward another free agent who WILL help the team going forward next year.

This isn't about holding onto guys fans have a hard on for now. Its about team building. And that means looking beyond just next season.

You take whatever you can get for Quinn....
Click to expand...
Draft right? Low 3rd/high 4th? Doesn't matter who's picking. More than 2/3rds will effectively be fails. There's a big difference between the top 50 or so and what comes after. This was tabulated in 2020 so 5 to 10 years after they were drafted.

The follow chart shows (1) the total number of players drafted in rounds 3 and 4 between 2000 – 2014, sorted by position, (2) the total number of those draft players who have been full-time starters for 4 or more years, and (3) the percentage of such players, by position group and total per year:

Position Rd 3# started 4 or more yrs% starters in rd 3 by positionRd 4# started 4 or more yrs% starters in rd 4 by position
QB18316.67%20315.00%
RB39410.26%621117.74%
WR721723.61%65710.77%
TE341338.24%30826.67%
OL794151.90%892426.97%
DT481327.08%401025.00%
DE361233.33%461430.43%
LB742331.08%721520.83%
DB1072220.56%1131715.04%
Sum507148 537109
Total % starters 29.19% 20.30%

We're all excited come draft day but fan expectations are unrealistic.
 

rawdawg

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Dejo said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519312957284495366
Click to expand...
Interesting. I tend to agree. First position I really noticed is off ball LB. There's very few guys after round 4 that I see with any upside to do much on an NFL roster. Then I looked at edge rusher, same thing, but maybe a few guys early 5th where the Bears pick. A lot of late round CBs are starting to move up draft boards. Guys like Kalon Barnes are projected to go in Round 4 now instead of the 6th. The DTs have a couple guys in the 5th/6th round area that I like, but I'd like a lot more as UDFAs.

I do think you'll be able to get some developmental skill players late on Day 3 though. There's a ton of late WR talent. Definitely can find role players here. Same with RB. I think the Bears might actually grab a RB with that 6th, especially if they are able to get an extra late pick somehow.
 
dennehy

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rawdawg said:
I kinda wrote off nickel CBs after the Bears signed Tavon Young, but it is only a 1-year deal. I like Wright as a player, but his 4.57 40 time kills him at 173lbs. I thought he had potential as a 3rd/4th round pick, but I think he's a UDFA. Tape says mid round though.
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That's what I thought too. He's 100% slot, not an outside guy. Could see him in the 5th or 6th perhaps. Good tape but that time is really terrible.
 
Spitta Andretti

Spitta Andretti

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Mighty Joe Young

Mighty Joe Young

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rawdawg said:
Interesting. I tend to agree. First position I really noticed is off ball LB. There's very few guys after round 4 that I see with any upside to do much on an NFL roster. Then I looked at edge rusher, same thing, but maybe a few guys early 5th where the Bears pick. A lot of late round CBs are starting to move up draft boards. Guys like Kalon Barnes are projected to go in Round 4 now instead of the 6th. The DTs have a couple guys in the 5th/6th round area that I like, but I'd like a lot more as UDFAs.

I do think you'll be able to get some developmental skill players late on Day 3 though. There's a ton of late WR talent. Definitely can find role players here. Same with RB. I think the Bears might actually grab a RB with that 6th, especially if they are able to get an extra late pick somehow.
Click to expand...

I agree as well. Its a weird draft. We often hear about drafts that are either top-heavy or just bad, but this one is "middle-heavy".

There's a lot of positions where there isn't a real drop off between rounds 1 and 2, but that it seems like the real value is in rounds 3 through the top half of round 5. Then there is a HUGE drop off in quality. A team could trade everything to live in the middle of this draft and come out of it in good shape - it really is a weird one in terms of how drafts go.
 

maxhatter

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Spitta Andretti said:
Face discipline for doing donuts? Florio is such a fucking hack
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I agree that Florio is a fucking hack, but if he gets charged with reckless driving and child endangerment, I'm sure the NFL will take a look at and potentially suspend him for it
 
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