Official Offseason Thread - CUBS edition

[2SeamHeat]

I want to kill puppies whenever I see someone write clog the bases. My god that bit of Dusty wisdom just will never die does it?

Well, I wouldn't say kill puppies.... maybe yuppies. I agree, that clog the bases theory has always been silly... at best. You can't score if you don't get on base. With Pena, however, it's never really helped him score more runs. One thing his taking walks does do is keep innings and possible rallies alive... but with how bad this team has been with RISP... that hasn't seemed to matter either. I'd think that he could at least be taking walks and setting up say Barney or ARam to score... but no... not so much.

I don't think OBP is a bad thing. I actually look at it over BA almost all times. However, things like BA with RISP (especially when you're supposed to be a run producer) are important as well. This team seems unable to buy a hit with RISP at times. I wish I could find a tally of LoB somewhere. I'd almost guarantee most everyone on this team that plays everyday would be in the top 20.

 

[daddies3angels]

So to be clear the reason you don't want Pena around next year is because he doesn't put up the RBI numbers you want, hits poorly in RISP and all of his numbers except BB and OBP are similar to Soriano this year?

Or am I adding things at this point...

They are the same things


reason OBP higher then Soriano is cause of walks. Rest of his numbers are exactly the same as Soriano who 99% of Cub fans want to run out of this town

 

[dabynsky]

:umad:

It doesn't do much for a guy like Pena to get on base if he can't steal or even break up a double play.

That is plain dumb. Teams that walk a lot score runs. Walks are good. They aren't the only thing, but to act like a walk is bad is dumb.

 

[nwfisch]

That is plain dumb. Teams that walk a lot score runs. Walks are good. They aren't the only thing, but to act like a walk is bad is dumb.

I never said a walk is bad, it doesn't do any good to walk if the team can't hit RISP or move around the bases.

 

[Rice Cube]

Most everyone on this team would be on the LOB shit list because they:

a) hit grounders
b) have little to no power
c) make a lot of outs even if there aren't men on base

It's kind of silly to use the RISP thing because this team is just so bad from top to bottom. You can't really teach plate discipline though, and Pena's eye was pretty useful to those Tampa Bay teams. He was also able to drive in more guys in TB because they knew how to get on base. Individually he only controls how often he himself gets on base.

 

[daddies3angels]

That is plain dumb. Teams that walk a lot score runs. Walks are good. They aren't the only thing, but to act like a walk is bad is dumb.

I agree teams that walk score runs but to have those walks score you need guys who HIT with men in RISP which Pena doesnt do that. Think about it Pena and Fuku were the best at taking walks but still scored less runs then other guys on the team that dont walk cause guys like Pena NOT driving them in. So yes walks is important but having guys who can do the right things with RISP is more important.

 

[Rice Cube]

I agree teams that walk score runs but to have those walks score you need guys who HIT with men in RISP which Pena doesnt do that. Think about it Pena and Fuku were the best at taking walks but still scored less runs then other guys on the team that dont walk cause guys like Pena NOT driving them in. So yes walks is important but having guys who can do the right things with RISP is more important.

This is weird logic.

Pena and Kosuke walk a lot. Someone else has to drive them in. It's the someone else (i.e. Byrd, Soriano) who weren't doing their jobs.

 

[dabynsky]

Going out and trying to get guys that are good at hitting with RISP was the line of thinking Jim Hendry used to justify signing Jeromy Burnitz.

 

[daddies3angels]

This is weird logic.

Pena and Kosuke walk a lot. Someone else has to drive them in. It's the someone else (i.e. Byrd, Soriano) who weren't doing their jobs.

yea..it sounded weird lol. Im just saying that RISP avg to me more important then BB. Teams that hit really well with RISP to me do better then teams that walk alot but never get the big hits. Hard to have pitcher walk 4-5 batters to score runs while if guys on base from hits like Cubs have been and then RISP avg up they score alot more runs.....Even thats hard to understand lol

 

[daddies3angels]

Going out and trying to get guys that are good at hitting with RISP was the line of thinking Jim Hendry used to justify signing Jeromy Burnitz.

That was like 8 years ago? i think he made other moves that contradicts that LIKE Pena

 

[Rice Cube]

yea..it sounded weird lol. Im just saying that RISP avg to me more important then BB. Teams that hit really well with RISP to me do better then teams that walk alot but never get the big hits. Hard to have pitcher walk 4-5 batters to score runs while if guys on base from hits like Cubs have been and then RISP avg up they score alot more runs.....Even thats hard to understand lol

I think the teams that hit really well with RISP tend to have guys who know how to get on base. It's sort of part of the definition inherent in hitting with RISP. Of course, you have to consistently get guys on base, you've got to have guys in the lineup who have some pop or at least gap-to-gap power, and every now and then, those guys also take walks or get hit by a pitch to load the bases or force in a run. OBP isn't anything to sneeze at. It's true that it isn't the end-all/be-all, but the ability to get on base is the best individual trait that a player can have. It's the only thing he can really control. Everything else is really up to his teammates and the baseball gods.

 

[2SeamHeat]

So to be clear the reason you don't want Pena around next year is because he doesn't put up the RBI numbers you want, hits poorly in RISP and all of his numbers except BB and OBP are similar to Soriano this year?

Or am I adding things at this point...

It's part of the reason. It's also part of the reason I want Soriano gone. It's part of the reason why I'm on the fence with ARam.

Pena needs to hit.. period. He needs to come through as a run producer... period. That's his job. He needs to drive in runs. I applaud him for how he takes walks, I really do. But, his job isn't to take walks when there are RBI opportunities. His job is to get hits that drive in those runs.

Everyone has a purpose on the team. Why does Barney suck? Because he only has a .319 OBP... and rarely attempts a steal. He has the speed to steal, he just doesn't try. However, Pierre had the speed to steal as well... but carried a shitty OBP. That's why he sucked... and he cost way more than he was worth.

Why did Fuki suck, despite being the team leader in OBP overall while with the team? He was hired to be a run producer... and never topped 13 HR or 58 RBI.

ARam sucks because of his laissez faire attitude. He puts up good numbers, but he has always had the talent and skill to do quite a bit more. He just doesn't put the effort in. This in mind, I wouldn't ***** about him coming back... with a slight pay cut.

DLee sucked because he fell apart in his last 3 years with the team.

Theriot sucked because he carried a shitty OBP in all but 2008. He also made some of the dumbest running mistakes I've ever seen.

Soriano sucks because he loafs most of the time. Also, he's too streaky, and K's too often. He also almost refuses to take a walk. The book on him... get him with 2 strikes and throw it up around his head... easy K. The guy was hired to be something close to a 40-40 guy... yet he hasn't done anything remotely like his career season before signing with the Cubs.

It depends on your job. If you are a table-setter (Pierre, Theriot, Grudz, Castro, Barney, Campana, etc.) you have to have at least a decent OBP (above. 350), you need to do things to get yourself into scoring position (steal, take the extra base on a hit when you can, go first to third often, etc.). You also need to carry a good BA (.280+). And... you have to score runs. Fuki turned out to be a decent table-setter. Problem is, he was paid to be a run-producer.

If you are a run-producer (ARam, Pena, Byrd, Soriano, Soto,), you need to be able to slug. This doesn't always mean you have to hit HR, doubles do wonders as well. HR are better. To do both is perfect. You have to carry a good BA with RISP. You have to drive in runs when the opportunity comes your way. OBP is nice to have here, especially since the big run producers tend to get pitched around and intentionally walked from time to time. It also helps setup the guys behind you. However, carrying a .220 or so BA will rarely do... no matter what your OBP is. Why? It means you're not picking up hits. Why does this matter? Because walks rarely drive anyone home. Pena sucks because he was hired to be a run-producer... and fails at it.

Also, one more negative aspect about Pena's walks (proving this is a case-by-case issue) about a quarter of his K's come with full counts... and almost all of those (28 of 37) have been looking for the walk.. rather than defending the plate or looking for the hit.

 

[2SeamHeat]

Boston has a team OBP of .350 and NYY has a team OBP of .348. The Cubs have a .315 OBP. Try again.

The Mets are ranked 4th this year in OBP... 2nd in the NL at .335. The are ranked 13th in Runs... 7th in the NL with 592. 39 more than the Cubs... despite the 21 point difference in OBP. They suck at BA w/RISP like we do.

You need both... and the Cubs have neither.

 

[2SeamHeat]

Just because he doesn't run out every ground ball doesn't mean he doesn't work hard and try. Sure, he has some mental lapses, but that doesn't affect his work ethic or his effort.

How do you know that he is the one who passed along this "oh well" attitude? Are you in the clubhouse? Have you talked with the players? I don't see how you could possibly know that.

As for Pena=Berkman, signing either is bad for this team because it means that they aren't looking toward the future.

If WAR is worthless, what is BA?


I don't see how you know that he won't sign a new deal. You know so much about these players thoughts, it really amazes me!

Thank you for making my point about Soriano's lack of effort. I appreciate you killing your own argument.

WAR was a stat created for fantasy baseball scoring. Even the team who employs the guy who created it... doesn't use it. The guy who created it, Bill James, states that it is nothing more than a stat used for rotisserie fantasy baseball leagues... and that it is the most overused stat by the "experts" when trying to evaluate a player. It's also a stat that is calculated differently by just about everyone who does use and publish it. A stat that is changed by everyone who uses it... isn't a stat. I always get a laugh when statheads take false stats so seriously. WAR is as useless as Range Factor.

BA is actually the percentage of times a guy gets a hit in terms of the number of his at bats. Pretty simple stat, doesn't entail everything... but is pretty important in the grand scheme of things. EVERY baseball team uses it in evaluating a player. Unlike the maybe 4-5 that try to use their own metric of WAR.

As for the "oh well" attitude. I read. Maybe you don't if it has noting to do with stats. I do. I pay attention when players say things regarding their former or current teammates, coaches, and etc.

So, signing either Pena or Berkman means the team isn't looking toward the future? Really? OK. Then signing Fielder means the team isn't looking beyond the next 3 years. Elaborate on your theory, and I'll elaborate on mine.... bet neither one will make any real sense.

I'm not saying, nor never had said, that ARam won't sign a new deal. From what has come out from the Cubs front office the past 14 months or so... the odds are slim he'll be offered a new deal. Also, if the team signs Fielder and any SP worth his salt... there won't be the cash to re-sign Aram. Not after arbitration hits.

 

[daddies3angels]

It's part of the reason. It's also part of the reason I want Soriano gone. It's part of the reason why I'm on the fence with ARam.

Pena needs to hit.. period. He needs to come through as a run producer... period. That's his job. He needs to drive in runs. I applaud him for how he takes walks, I really do. But, his job isn't to take walks when there are RBI opportunities. His job is to get hits that drive in those runs.

Everyone has a purpose on the team. Why does Barney suck? Because he only has a .319 OBP... and rarely attempts a steal. He has the speed to steal, he just doesn't try. However, Pierre had the speed to steal as well... but carried a shitty OBP. That's why he sucked... and he cost way more than he was worth.

Why did Fuki suck, despite being the team leader in OBP overall while with the team? He was hired to be a run producer... and never topped 13 HR or 58 RBI.

ARam sucks because of his laissez faire attitude. He puts up good numbers, but he has always had the talent and skill to do quite a bit more. He just doesn't put the effort in. This in mind, I wouldn't ***** about him coming back... with a slight pay cut.

DLee sucked because he fell apart in his last 3 years with the team.

Theriot sucked because he carried a shitty OBP in all but 2008. He also made some of the dumbest running mistakes I've ever seen.

Soriano sucks because he loafs most of the time. Also, he's too streaky, and K's too often. He also almost refuses to take a walk. The book on him... get him with 2 strikes and throw it up around his head... easy K. The guy was hired to be something close to a 40-40 guy... yet he hasn't done anything remotely like his career season before signing with the Cubs.

It depends on your job. If you are a table-setter (Pierre, Theriot, Grudz, Castro, Barney, Campana, etc.) you have to have at least a decent OBP (above. 350), you need to do things to get yourself into scoring position (steal, take the extra base on a hit when you can, go first to third often, etc.). You also need to carry a good BA (.280+). And... you have to score runs. Fuki turned out to be a decent table-setter. Problem is, he was paid to be a run-producer.

If you are a run-producer (ARam, Pena, Byrd, Soriano, Soto,), you need to be able to slug. This doesn't always mean you have to hit HR, doubles do wonders as well. HR are better. To do both is perfect. You have to carry a good BA with RISP. You have to drive in runs when the opportunity comes your way. OBP is nice to have here, especially since the big run producers tend to get pitched around and intentionally walked from time to time. It also helps setup the guys behind you. However, carrying a .220 or so BA will rarely do... no matter what your OBP is. Why? It means you're not picking up hits. Why does this matter? Because walks rarely drive anyone home. Pena sucks because he was hired to be a run-producer... and fails at it.

Also, one more negative aspect about Pena's walks (proving this is a case-by-case issue) about a quarter of his K's come with full counts... and almost all of those (28 of 37) have been looking for the walk.. rather than defending the plate or looking for the hit.

I have seen him take FB right down the middle to many times this year cause he is looking for walk. We learned in little league rather go out swinging then just looking.

 

[X]

last time I checked...Pena's got almost 3x as many walks as the next closest on the team. We might be better off if more players took walks so a single could drive 'em in...

 

[2SeamHeat]

last time I checked...Pena's got almost 3x as many walks as the next closest on the team. We might be better off if more players took walks so a single could drive 'em in...

He also has almost twice the strikeouts of everyone not named Soriano or Soto... and a ton of those Ks... are looking. At least the majority of times that Soriano or Soto strike out, they go down swinging... not hoping the curve ball that hit the same exact spot the pitch before (and was called a strike) might slip out of the strike zone this time.

He also loves to leave RISP for the next guy to pick up, rather than try to drive them in himself.

 

[daddies3angels]

last time I checked...Pena's got almost 3x as many walks as the next closest on the team. We might be better off if more players took walks so a single could drive 'em in...

We not arguing he dont take walks. What im saying is take away walks he and Soriano have the same exact numbers. So why do Cub fans what Sori gone so bad but Pena there ok with resigning him.

 

[2SeamHeat]

last time I checked...Pena's got almost 3x as many walks as the next closest on the team. We might be better off if more players took walks so a single could drive 'em in...

I do agree, we could use more guys that took more walks... and that saw more than 3.2 pitches per PA. We also need guys that will hit with RISP, not just take a ton of walks and strike out a ton of times in those situations.

We need both OBP-oriented table-setters and BA w/RISP oriented run producers. We need more guys with .280 BAs pulling .360 OBPs.... not .220 BAs pulling .350 OBPs. We need guys hitting .275+ with RISP... not .150-ish.

 

[X]

He also has almost twice the strikeouts of everyone not named Soriano or Soto... and a ton of those Ks... are looking. At least the majority of times that Soriano or Soto strike out, they go down swinging... not hoping the curve ball that hit the same exact spot the pitch before (and was called a strike) might slip out of the strike zone this time.

He also loves to leave RISP for the next guy to pick up, rather than try to drive them in himself.

Well, it's just hard for me to fault a guy w/ the most hrs and 2nd most rbis on the team for stuff like that, tho. He's got the 2nd highest OBP on the team despite a .225 avg and the 2nd highest OPS on the team as well.