Official Offseason Thread - CUBS edition

[daddies3angels]

Well, it's just hard for me to fault a guy w/ the most hrs and 2nd most rbis on the team for stuff like that, tho. He's got the 2nd highest OBP on the team despite a .225 avg and the 2nd highest OPS on the team as well.

Tells you how bad the team is lol :thinking:

 

[X]

We not arguing he dont take walks. What im saying is take away walks he and Soriano have the same exact numbers. So why do Cub fans what Sori gone so bad but Pena there ok with resigning him.

well, for one, you can't just "take away the walks" and compare #s...they're a part of the game.

2ndly, Soriano is getting paid significantly more for a significantly longer period of time....and Pena plays defense.

 

[X]

Tells you how bad the team is lol :thinking:

that part I'm not arguing, haha.

 

[daddies3angels]

well, for one, you can't just "take away the walks" and compare #s...they're a part of the game.

2ndly, Soriano is getting paid significantly more for a significantly longer period of time....and Pena plays defense.

The money has to do alot with guys feeling. Im just curious why would they want to give Pena another 2 years in Chicago basically putting up Sori number with more walks. I just think 1B should be a RBI spot and clearly he not a very good RBI guy. When he hits lower then .175 AVG RISP he dont help team no matter how many walks he has.. Look back in the thread and you see some great stats about how many runs he has scored and other tidbits.

 

[X]

The money has to do alot with guys feeling. Im just curious why would they want to give Pena another 2 years in Chicago basically putting up Sori number with more walks. I just think 1B should be a RBI spot and clearly he not a very good RBI guy. When he hits lower then .175 AVG RISP he dont help team no matter how many walks he has.. Look back in the thread and you see some great stats about how many runs he has scored and other tidbits.

fair enough..I haven't looked back in this thread at all...will tomorrow...will respond...


<3

 

[Captain Obvious]

YES!!! Fisch stats show that his walks dont help the team anyways. He has no speed and just clogs the bases. I want my 1B to be a RBI guy. He has proven he is not.

Dusty Baker says hi!

:umad:

It doesn't do much for a guy like Pena to get on base if he can't steal or even break up a double play.

Other than the whole, it takes runners to score runs part.... oh yeah, that's like the whole point of baseball. duh.

Thank you for making my point about Soriano's lack of effort. I appreciate you killing your own argument.

WAR was a stat created for fantasy baseball scoring. Even the team who employs the guy who created it... doesn't use it. The guy who created it, Bill James, states that it is nothing more than a stat used for rotisserie fantasy baseball leagues... and that it is the most overused stat by the "experts" when trying to evaluate a player. It's also a stat that is calculated differently by just about everyone who does use and publish it. A stat that is changed by everyone who uses it... isn't a stat. I always get a laugh when statheads take false stats so seriously. WAR is as useless as Range Factor.

BA is actually the percentage of times a guy gets a hit in terms of the number of his at bats. Pretty simple stat, doesn't entail everything... but is pretty important in the grand scheme of things. EVERY baseball team uses it in evaluating a player. Unlike the maybe 4-5 that try to use their own metric of WAR.

As for the "oh well" attitude. I read. Maybe you don't if it has noting to do with stats. I do. I pay attention when players say things regarding their former or current teammates, coaches, and etc.

So, signing either Pena or Berkman means the team isn't looking toward the future? Really? OK. Then signing Fielder means the team isn't looking beyond the next 3 years. Elaborate on your theory, and I'll elaborate on mine.... bet neither one will make any real sense.

I'm not saying, nor never had said, that ARam won't sign a new deal. From what has come out from the Cubs front office the past 14 months or so... the odds are slim he'll be offered a new deal. Also, if the team signs Fielder and any SP worth his salt... there won't be the cash to re-sign Aram. Not after arbitration hits.

Yes, I killed my own argument by saying just because he doesn't run every ground ball out, doesn't mean he doesn't try or whatever word I used. Would you rather he run everything out when he is old and slow? Do you want him to pull another hamstring?

Bill James creates Win Shares, which is different. It doesn't matter what the purpose is or what his opinion on it's usage is. It correlates to wins at a very high rate. Who is calling it a stat? You're calling it a stat. I'm calling it a metric. Metric, stat, horsepoop, whatever, if it correlates to wins at a higher rate than something else, it's going to be more reliable. Do I need to go into detail on that matter?

Yes, batting average is the percentage of times a guy gets a hit! Very good! You've been learning! I'm proud of you. I really am. Is it important? I could have swore that this game was called baseball, in which your goal is to get on base, which leads to runs, thus called baseball. But by your logic, it should be called hitball. Why does BA matter? It doesn't. Sure, if used in the right context, such as wRISP,AVG-OBP diff., things like that. But the stat alone doesn't mean shit. Oh and because every team uses it, it's right. When every kid in the 3rd grade was pooping their pants, I bet you were the kid who was giving into peer pressure.

Oh, you pay attention to what players say, huh? Then it should be no problem for you to show me one negative that has been said about Soriano and his work ethic by a former or current teammate, coach, etc.

Yes, signing Fielder, who will sign a 5-6 year contract, is looking to the next 3 years, not the next 5-6 years. Very good. Even with your 3 year projection, that's still looking to the future and not signing a declining mid-30s 1B.

Oh now the Cubs FO has said it's a slim chance he'll get offered a new deal! Whoopie! I would love to see what evidence you have to back that up. Is the part where TR said he was going to spend wisely? because that totally points towards a new deal.

 

[Captain Obvious]

The money has to do alot with guys feeling. Im just curious why would they want to give Pena another 2 years in Chicago basically putting up Sori number with more walks. I just think 1B should be a RBI spot and clearly he not a very good RBI guy. When he hits lower then .175 AVG RISP he dont help team no matter how many walks he has.. Look back in the thread and you see some great stats about how many runs he has scored and other tidbits.

Seems like you answered your question for yourself.

 

[dabynsky]

The Mets are ranked 4th this year in OBP... 2nd in the NL at .335. The are ranked 13th in Runs... 7th in the NL with 592. 39 more than the Cubs... despite the 21 point difference in OBP. They suck at BA w/RISP like we do.

You need both... and the Cubs have neither.

In the NL the Mets are 4th in batting average with RISP, 6th with OBP, 7th in SLG, and 6th in OPS. You have an interesting defintion of sucking in RISP situations since they are better than half the teams in this league in nearly every category in that situation. The fact that the Mets are 8th in SLG and have hit the 11th most homeruns in the league seem as likely of an explanation for the lack of runs scored.

This really gets back to the main point that hitting with RISP isn't a skill that hitters have. The best way to do well in RISP is to get as many good hitters as you can. Hitters tend to perform the same in all situations if given enough at bats. No player has been shown to be able to significantly raise his ability in any given situation consistently throughout a career.

 

[Shawon_Dunston]

In the NL the Mets are 4th in batting average with RISP, 6th with OBP, 7th in SLG, and 6th in OPS. You have an interesting defintion of sucking in RISP situations since they are better than half the teams in this league in nearly every category in that situation. The fact that the Mets are 8th in SLG and have hit the 11th most homeruns in the league seem as likely of an explanation for the lack of runs scored.

This really gets back to the main point that hitting with RISP isn't a skill that hitters have. The best way to do well in RISP is to get as many good hitters as you can. Hitters tend to perform the same in all situations if given enough at bats. No player has been shown to be able to significantly raise his ability in any given situation consistently throughout a career.

In addition, what good is BA with RISP when there is no one on base? The more people there are on base = more opportunities with RISP = More runs scored.

 

[poodski]

Looking Ahead To The Offseason ( Thoughts, Wants, Don't Wants ) Thread

The money has to do alot with guys feeling. Im just curious why would they want to give Pena another 2 years in Chicago basically putting up Sori number with more walks. I just think 1B should be a RBI spot and clearly he not a very good RBI guy. When he hits lower then .175 AVG RISP he dont help team no matter how many walks he has.. Look back in the thread and you see some great stats about how many runs he has scored and other tidbits.

There is no situation where a walk lowers your run expectancy.

I know people want RBI guys but there really is no such thing. A walk still raises out chance of winning every single time.

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html

 

[Rice Cube]

There are other individual metrics that correlate better than batting average. BA w/RISP isn't one of them.

What Hitting Metrics Correlate Year-to-Year? - Beyond the Box Score

 

[poodski]

Looking Ahead To The Offseason ( Thoughts, Wants, Don't Wants ) Thread

LD% really shocks me on that list. Never thought it would be that low.

The rest seem to make sense.

 

[Rice Cube]

LD% really shocks me on that list. Never thought it would be that low.

The rest seem to make sense.

I think you can make an argument that the ability to hit a ball square to generate a line drive is at least partially based on luck. Also, it is possible that one scorer's definition of "line drive" may be a "fly ball" to another scorer. You can also hit grounders really really hard but those are rarely classified as line drives, if at all.

 

[poodski]

Looking Ahead To The Offseason ( Thoughts, Wants, Don't Wants ) Thread

I think you can make an argument that the ability to hit a ball square to generate a line drive is at least partially based on luck. Also, it is possible that one scorer's definition of "line drive" may be a "fly ball" to another scorer. You can also hit grounders really really hard but those are rarely classified as line drives, if at all.

Yeah. I get why it's low just surprised how low it is. I would think the ability to hit the ball well (line drive) would be a skill. BABIP wouldn't of course.

Just like I would think the ability to get weak contact from a pitcher would be a skill. BABIP of course wouldn't.

Just goes to show you really don't know as much as you think you know about baseball. Which is why I believe in numbers way more than eyeballs.

 

[Rice Cube]

Some Albert Pujols-ish food for thought:

The St. Louis Cardinals, Albert Pujols, Free Agency, and Jose Reyes by Jonah Keri - Grantland

 

[daddies3angels]

I think all of us are so ready for the offseason. Im excited to watch playoffs for baseball but im so ready for NOV to see what Cubbies doing

 

[nwfisch]

No matter what LaHair does, it shouldn't limit the Cubs in pursuing help at 1B. That is if the Ricketts have the money to spend

 

[daddies3angels]

No matter what LaHair does, it shouldn't limit the Cubs in pursuing help at 1B. That is if the Ricketts have the money to spend

Have is not the question. Its will he spend the money? With close to 50 mil coming off books this year and about another 30 mil coming off next year Cubs will have the money. Now the question becomes will he spend and if he does wisely

 

[Jntg4]

Have is not the question. Its will he spend the money? With close to 50 mil coming off books this year and about another 30 mil coming off next year Cubs will have the money. Now the question becomes will he spend and if he does wisely

Not necessarily, we are like 300 Million + in debt after all.

 

[2SeamHeat]

In the NL the Mets are 4th in batting average with RISP, 6th with OBP, 7th in SLG, and 6th in OPS. You have an interesting defintion of sucking in RISP situations since they are better than half the teams in this league in nearly every category in that situation. The fact that the Mets are 8th in SLG and have hit the 11th most homeruns in the league seem as likely of an explanation for the lack of runs scored.

This really gets back to the main point that hitting with RISP isn't a skill that hitters have. The best way to do well in RISP is to get as many good hitters as you can. Hitters tend to perform the same in all situations if given enough at bats. No player has been shown to be able to significantly raise his ability in any given situation consistently throughout a career.

Ummm, recheck your numbers, Dab.

OBP at the time of my post:

Boston .350 - currently ranked 2nd in Runs 747
Yankees .348 - 1st 765
Cardinals .338 - 5th (NL leader) 659
Detroit .336 - 4th 661
Mets .335 - 13th (7th NL) 622

BA w/RISP at the time of my post:

StL .290
Texas .284
Detroit .282
Boston .279
Yankees .276
KC .272
Milwaukee .269
Oakland .268
Philly .267
Cincy .264
Baltimore .264
NYM .263

Ok, they were 12th in the MLB and 5th in the NL... so I did have that wrong. But still, they had the 5th best OBP in the majors and 2nd best in the NL... but were middle of the pack in the MLB in BA w/RISP. Now, they have risen in the past couple of days in that as well. They now sit above Philly with a .266. However, they are also ranked last in the MLB with RISP LoB per game at 3.99.

The point is, having a high team OBP doesn't always equate to scoring more runs. Usually, the teams that do have the highest OBPs do score the most runs... but not always. At the time, I thought it was interesting how the Mets were ranked in runs scored much more similarly to where they ranked in BA w/RISP than OBP. Basically every team ranked higher than them in BA w/RISP had scored more runs, with the exceptions of Baltimore and Oakland.

Notice also, the other top 5 teams with OBP in the MLB are also in the top 5 with BA w/RISP... and are in the top 5 in runs scored. Only the Mets fell out of the top 5 in BA w/RISP and Runs. However, Texas has the same OBP as the Mets now... and are in the top 5 in both BA w/RISP and Runs. Kinda holds my overall point true that you need both... doesn't it?