Official WhiteSox Trade Discussion VOL 1

[GrinderBall41]

and keep the Starting pitching in tact? Why/ What good would that do with no bullpen to speak ofwhat we need to do is totally wreck this ship and build a new one from the bottom up with young hungry talent and it does work just peek over to the AL East and see who's at the top there with young talent and not much of a money on the line as we do with this band of misfits!

Peavy, MB, and Floyd have almost no value right now and you want to trade them?

You think you can get prospects that have more potential than Peavy, MB, and Floyd over the next few years?

Obviously we're fucked for this year. But on paper this rotation is still really good moving forward for the next 3-4 years.

And as far as the bullpen: Santos is the future closer, Jenks and Putz have no future here. ANd Thornton is the most valuable movable piece. I think we could get somebody to overpay for him.

 

[Got teeth? Keith doesn't.]

If this team is ever going to win we need CQ to be a .850+ OPS player. Selling this low on him would be the absolute stupidest thing we could do.

PK, AJ, Jenks, Jones, Putz and Thornton should be shopped for prospects.

And the rotation should be kept intact.

CQ is a one year fluke man, he hasn't looked nearly as good since 2008 and he is never coming back. Just forget about him.

and keep the Starting pitching in tact? Why/ What good would that do with no bullpen to speak ofwhat we need to do is totally wreck this ship and build a new one from the bottom up with young hungry talent and it does work just peek over to the AL East and see who's at the top there with young talent and not much of a money on the line as we do with this band of misfits!

Why the hell would you want to sell our starters at their lowest trade value right now? That's not smart GM'ing 101 and I agree with grinderball.

 

[GrinderBall41]

CQ is a one year fluke man, he hasn't looked nearly as good since 2008 and he is never coming back. Just forget about him.

He might be, but I doubt it. He raked all through the minors also.

He is a head case, ill give you that. Like PK, he focuses way too much on mechanics and "out-dumbs" himself as hawk would say. His injuries + his struggles have snowballed and its ugly now but im confident that he will get it back together. He was too consistent in '08 you dont just forget how to hit after a full season of domination.

And he wasnt absolutely terrible last year. His BABIP was .221 with a higher than average LD% which points to a tough-luck season. ANd he still slugged over .450.

But either way, he cant be traded. He has more potential than any prospect you could ever get for him.

 

[Got teeth? Keith doesn't.]

He is a head case, ill give you that. Like PK, he focuses way too much on mechanics and "out-dumbs" himself as hawk would say. His injuries + his struggles have snowballed and its ugly now but im confident that he will get it back together. He was too consistent in '08 you dont just forget how to hit after a full season of domination.
It's quite easy, it's called a one year fluke.

And he wasnt absolutely terrible last year. His BABIP was .221 with a higher than average LD% which points to a tough-luck season. ANd he still slugged over .450.
Someone needs to get more familiar with these numbers. A low BABIP in a bad season does not suggest he was better than he actually was. And in what world do you live on that a 16.3 LD% is above average, when the major league average is around 20%? He's never been a high BABIP hitter, coming in with a career .247 mark and in his MVP-caliber '08 season, it was only .278. I'm willing to bet that he is more of a .230 hitter than a .290 hitter.

But either way, he cant be traded. He has more potential than any prospect you could ever get for him.

I agree, he isn't worth trading right now, but that doesn't take away from the fact that he's just terrible.

 

[GrinderBall41]

I agree, he isn't worth trading right now, but that doesn't take away from the fact that he's just terrible.

16.3% is above his average LD%.

This year he's completely buried. And he's probably not a .290 hitter, but i think its reasonable to hope for .260/.380/.470 over the next few years.

 

[Got teeth? Keith doesn't.]

16.3% is above his average LD%.

This year he's completely buried. And he's probably not a .290 hitter, but i think its reasonable to hope for .260/.380/.470 over the next few years.

Oh wow, by .6%...

 

[GrinderBall41]

Oh wow, by .6%...

Still doesnt justify a 5% drop in BABIP over the previous year.

 

[GrinderBall41]

Look obviously the easy stance to take is that his one year wa a fluke because he hasnt replicated it yet. ANd maybe it was. Im just saying its not inconceivable that he was showing his true self in '08 and multiple factors have brought him down since.

I look at him like a prospect. Because at any point he could return to that form.

 

[Got teeth? Keith doesn't.]

Still doesnt justify a 5% drop in BABIP over the previous year.

No, but a decline in speed does.

 

[GrinderBall41]

No, but a decline in speed does.

I was ready to drop this but now youre implying that his 2008 numbers were driven by infield hits...

 

[Got teeth? Keith doesn't.]

I was ready to drop this but now youre implying that his 2008 numbers are driven by infield hits...

Um, no? BABIP and speed have a huge correlation. Ever since Quentin's plantar fasciitis, his speed has gone down drastically. Take a look at the top 10 BABIP leaders this season:
1. Austin Jackson
2. Austin Kearns
3. Justin Morneau
4. Ichiro
5. Robinson Cano
6. David Freese
7. Colby Rasmus
8. Elvis Andrus
9. Adrian Beltre
10. Andre Torres

Is it a coincidence that they combine to go for 73-100 in stolen bases, even with Morneau, Freese, and Beltre combining to go 2 for 4 in stolen bases? Or look at a bigger sample size in 2009:

1. David Wright 27-36
2. Ichiro 26-35
3. Hanley Ramirez 27-35
4. Joe Mauer 4-5
5. Joey Votto 4-5
6. Shin-Soo Choo 21-23
7. Derek Jeter 30-35
8. Michael Bourn 61-73
9. Chris Coghlan 8-13
10. Jason Bartlett 30-37

Fro a total of 238 for 297.

 

[GrinderBall41]

Some guys, like Ichiro, have high BABIP's due to beating out infield hits.

Are you suggesting that faster guys have high BABIPs for a different reason than infield hits?

Maybe having the corners in due to the threat of a bunt hit?

 

[Got teeth? Keith doesn't.]

Some guys, like Ichiro, have high BABIP's due to beating out infield hits.

Are you suggesting that faster guys have high BABIPs for a different reason than infield hits?

Maybe having the corners in due to the threat of a bunt hit?

Well, Ichiro, Andrus, Hanley, and Bourn are the only players listed on either list that have top-tier speed.

 

[FedEx227]

Some guys, like Ichiro, have high BABIP's due to beating out infield hits.

Are you suggesting that faster guys have high BABIPs for a different reason than infield hits?

Maybe having the corners in due to the threat of a bunt hit?

Exactly... all those guys have higher BABIP's because they can outrun grounders and hits that would otherwise be just routine groundouts from most other guys.

 

[Got teeth? Keith doesn't.]

Exactly... all those guys have higher BABIP's because they can outrun grounders and hits that would otherwise be just routine groundouts from most other guys.

And that is exactly why Quentins BABIP is low and will most likely always remain lower than usual because of his deteriorating speed.

 

[FedEx227]

No... that's not true at all.

Quentin's BABIP is low because he's hitting a ton of really shitty popups and getting generally awful contact on the ball.

Quentin has never been a guy who has relied on beating out throws to first as a way to get his hits. His BABIP has always been really dependent on his ability to drive the ball out of the ballpark and if instead of homers, he's hitting lazy fly balls and his BABIP is going to suffer.

BABIP does not correlate with speed. BABIP correlates with luck and the type of contact you're generally putting on the ball. Sometimes guys with speed can skew their BABIP numbers but generally it's not meant to tell you how a guy is getting slower as his career progresses. Or how fast a guy is, or anything of that nature. That's nowhere near right. Sometimes it happens, but that's not a correlation.

In the case of someone like Denard Span, if he were to rupture his Achilles next week and the next 3-4 years have a dramatically lower BABIP than what he had previously, it would probably be due to the fact that a lot of his hits came on beating out grounders or his ability to reach base on something most other guys wouldn't. That doesn't mean that applies to every player or even every fast guy. It happens to some fast guys who hit a lot of infield grounders. Quentin's game has never been that. His game has been to hit the ball out of the ballpark.

 

[Capt. Serious]

He might be, but I doubt it. He raked all through the minors also.

He is a head case, ill give you that. Like PK, he focuses way too much on mechanics and "out-dumbs" himself as hawk would say. His injuries + his struggles have snowballed and its ugly now but im confident that he will get it back together. He was too consistent in '08 you dont just forget how to hit after a full season of domination.

And he wasnt absolutely terrible last year. His BABIP was .221 with a higher than average LD% which points to a tough-luck season. ANd he still slugged over .450.

But either way, he cant be traded. He has more potential than any prospect you could ever get for him.

Yes, he can be traded because i'm fucking sick of watching his horse shit AB's.

 

[GrinderBall41]

No... that's not true at all.

Quentin's BABIP is low because he's hitting a ton of really shitty popups and getting generally awful contact on the ball.

Quentin has never been a guy who has relied on beating out throws to first as a way to get his hits. His BABIP has always been really dependent on his ability to drive the ball out of the ballpark and if instead of homers, he's hitting lazy fly balls and his BABIP is going to suffer.

BABIP does not correlate with speed. BABIP correlates with luck and the type of contact you're generally putting on the ball. Sometimes guys with speed can skew their BABIP numbers but generally it's not meant to tell you how a guy is getting slower as his career progresses. Or how fast a guy is, or anything of that nature. That's nowhere near right. Sometimes it happens, but that's not a correlation.

In the case of someone like Denard Span, if he were to rupture his Achilles next week and the next 3-4 years have a dramatically lower BABIP than what he had previously, it would probably be due to the fact that a lot of his hits came on beating out grounders or his ability to reach base on something most other guys wouldn't. That doesn't mean that applies to every player or even every fast guy. It happens to some fast guys who hit a lot of infield grounders. Quentin's game has never been that. His game has been to hit the ball out of the ballpark.

I could be wrong but I dont think HR's are factored into BABIP. I think its just balls in play.

Other than that I fully agree.

 

[GrinderBall41]

Yes, he can be traded because i'm fucking sick of watching his horse shit AB's.

Solid logic. You should be a GM.

 

[Got teeth? Keith doesn't.]

No... that's not true at all.

Quentin's BABIP is low because he's hitting a ton of really shitty popups and getting generally awful contact on the ball.

Quentin has never been a guy who has relied on beating out throws to first as a way to get his hits. His BABIP has always been really dependent on his ability to drive the ball out of the ballpark and if instead of homers, he's hitting lazy fly balls and his BABIP is going to suffer.

BABIP does not correlate with speed. BABIP correlates with luck and the type of contact you're generally putting on the ball. Sometimes guys with speed can skew their BABIP numbers but generally it's not meant to tell you how a guy is getting slower as his career progresses. Or how fast a guy is, or anything of that nature. That's nowhere near right. Sometimes it happens, but that's not a correlation.

In the case of someone like Denard Span, if he were to rupture his Achilles next week and the next 3-4 years have a dramatically lower BABIP than what he had previously, it would probably be due to the fact that a lot of his hits came on beating out grounders or his ability to reach base on something most other guys wouldn't. That doesn't mean that applies to every player or even every fast guy. It happens to some fast guys who hit a lot of infield grounders. Quentin's game has never been that. His game has been to hit the ball out of the ballpark.

How can you argue against the players with the higher BABIP's being usually speed guys and the lower BABIP guys be slower players? That screams correlation to me. There is factual evidence, I don't see hwo you can argue against it.

Also grinderball is right, HR's aren't factored into BABIP.