Offseason discussion/rumors

CSF77

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If that's the going price, I'd part with Happ or Jimenez for Quintana. He honestly strikes me as more this front office's type of pitcher anyways which is to say decent ground ball rate, a tick above average k/9 and a very good bb/9.

Value wise yes. But no. I really see Jimenez in RF and Happ in CF as the direction that they are going. But I see Johnson, Zag, Black, Candi as guys they would be willing to shop. So that means they would be looking at not so mega returns.

Those are guys at AAA so they need a opertunity to play and there are teams that need guys like that. Cubs need a closer.
 

FrankieLyrical

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Not a lock that he will be the everyday starter but I think he will get a chance to take it over at some point if he shows he can hit major league pitching consistently in April and May.

I think they'll go get a guy to platoon in CF with him to start and Maddon will eventually go with who hot and hitting.



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Who are other options? Or do we have a platoon with Heyward getting time at CF?
 

JaySix

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you'd give him 10/$300 which is what the talk is? That's INSANE!

A risk? Yes. Insane? No.

It's all about if you trust the way the front office judges talent. This is a professional player, not a high school player and if he is as good as everyone thinks he is, 300M for 10 years for a guy 22 years old is not that insane. You would give it to guys like Trout, Harper etc in a heartbeat at that age but obviously we don't know 100% since he hasn't played in the MLB yet.

If posted I would want him on the Cubs, badly.
 

CSF77

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Who are other options? Or do we have a platoon with Heyward getting time at CF?

Most likely they would platoon Heyward and Soler in RF. Schwarber and Zobrist in LF (Zo would start at 2B vs RHP) that leaves Almora and ? In CF. Jay seems like a target but there are others to concider also.

I would expect them getting a D first guy to protect Schwarber.
 

DanTown

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Why would Jon Jay come here? Why do people feel he solves a need? What need does he solve? And why would he come here anyway? To get very little playing time? If he's going somewhere to be a fourth OF, not sure why he'd pick a team that has a massive amount of talent in the OF and not a team like say the Indians or White Sox that have a massive hole in their CF.

Just feels weird to me to talk about guys with little/no value as hitters as potential needs. I mean Jon Jay is maybe 10% than Almora in CF but a worse fielder so a wash in terms of replacement value compared to Almora. Maybe you feel there's a platoon advantage but Jay doesn't have a platoon advantage and he's a fairly average hitter for CF so you can't really expect him to be a valuable hitter in the corners so he doesn't offer much there either. And if you feel that you want to play Baez more, that means either Bryant or Zobrist goes to RF.

It would take a major injury (ala Schwarber last year) to really open up any sort of regular playing time for Jon Jay and for that reason, I can see why Jay wouldn't come here if he can play and get more money somewhere else.
 

DanTown

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Not exactly surprising that Zach regressed pitching in Azl. Price continued his string of disappearing in the play offs. :clap: yep best options are to overspend because it like works ya know.

I'm not going to have a reasoned debate about those two because the point isn't how good or bad they are; the point is that teams are still willing to spend a ton of money on pitchers in the twilight of their career so the argument that pitchers are "more valuable" to teams five years than today is simply not true.
 

DanTown

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Nope. He did not prove he has a major league bat.

Plus defender in CF who doesn't strike out a ton and bats at the bottom of the order is all the bat needs to show If he can be an average bat (his OPS+ last year was 102) with very good defense and average speed, that's a 2-3 WAR player. Not a guy you're going to be wowed by but a guy who at the end of the day will help the ball club out. Makes logical sense to almost platoon him and Soler. Add in potentially Candelario (most likely as a 3B option that moves KB to RF) and Zobrist/Baez potential, there really isn't a need to replace Fowler with anything more than that.

Obviously Almora will not replace what Fowler did at the plate but I think he can obviously upgrade what Fowler did in the OF defensively (Almora had 3 DRS v Fowler's 1 while playing in less than 1/4 the number of innings Fowler did).
 

beckdawg

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Value wise yes. But no. I really see Jimenez in RF and Happ in CF as the direction that they are going. But I see Johnson, Zag, Black, Candi as guys they would be willing to shop. So that means they would be looking at not so mega returns.

Those are guys at AAA so they need a opertunity to play and there are teams that need guys like that. Cubs need a closer.

Happ isn't going to play CF in the majors. If they thought he had any reasonable chance of doing so they would have left him playing CF as it's a far more valuable position than 2B. He's playing 2B because his bat fits far better there than in a corner OF spot.
 

beckdawg

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If we don't re-sign Dex, is it a lock that Almora will be the CF'er?

Think it will be a platoon of Heyward/Almora with Heyward shifting to RF when not in CF and Almora in CF vs someone like Zobrist or more likely Bryant in RF when Almora sits. Basically, I think Almora ends up in that swing role Baez played but instead of Almora moving around all over it will be other players.
 

beckdawg

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Nope. He did not prove he has a major league bat.

Not sure I get this opinion. Almora had a 101 wRC+ which means he was 1% better than your average MLB player in run creation. He also hit .277/.308/.455. As a comparison, Baez who people rightly think will play a bunch next year hit .273/.314/.423 with a 94 wRC+. Almora's only had 117 major league plate appearances as opposed to Baez who had 309 coming into 2016 and had 450 this season. It's fairly reasonable to assume Almora will improve next year having had more experience. Again to compare to Baez, his first 200 or so PAs he hit .169/.227/.324 with a 54 wRC+. That's not to shit on Baez but just point out that very few rookies come up and hit like the majority of the cubs have(Schwarber/Bryant/Contreras).

And more to the point, Almora showed the type of player he was in game 7 taking the extra base that eventually became the winning run on a play most wouldn't. I don't get why so many are down on him. He doesn't have a huge offensive ceiling but he does the little things well and plays great defense. If he's an average hitter which he's already shown he can be at the major league level he's easily a 3 win player. If he's any better than that you could very quickly get into the 4-5 win range.
 

Parade_Rain

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Happ isn't going to play CF in the majors. If they thought he had any reasonable chance of doing so they would have left him playing CF as it's a far more valuable position than 2B. He's playing 2B because his bat fits far better there than in a corner OF spot.
2B is up the middle and just as criticsl as CF defensively.
 

brett05

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Ken Rosenthal reported the other day that the White Sox are looking for 2 top prospects and a flyer or two for Sale and 1 and a flyer for Quintana. A Boston columnist speculated that Moncada and Swihart would get Sale. I think that's probably pretty close. If the White Sox got that and also a decent prospect for Frazier they could be contending again in less than 2 years.

Two top specs, like top ten/already in the majors like Urias, Deleon and two flyers like a puig and another top 100 guy for Sale.
 

brett05

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If that's the going price, I'd part with Happ or Jimenez for Quintana. He honestly strikes me as more this front office's type of pitcher anyways which is to say decent ground ball rate, a tick above average k/9 and a very good bb/9.

Except that would not get the talks started as those would be back end pieces. The Cubs would have to start with Baez/Kyle
 

brett05

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Yeah, pitchers were more valuable five years ago, that's why David Price and Zach Grienke didn't just sign the two largest contracts for a pitcher ever just last winter.
:smh: :facepalm:
 

brett05

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A risk? Yes. Insane? No.

It's all about if you trust the way the front office judges talent. This is a professional player, not a high school player and if he is as good as everyone thinks he is, 300M for 10 years for a guy 22 years old is not that insane. You would give it to guys like Trout, Harper etc in a heartbeat at that age but obviously we don't know 100% since he hasn't played in the MLB yet.

If posted I would want him on the Cubs, badly.

And I would laugh so hard.

Japan is not the bigs. All of these analogies that keep getting pitched are awful.

Paying big dollars for a HS kid (which only you suggested) would not only be INSANE, it would be TREASON to the sport.
 

brett05

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I'm not going to have a reasoned debate about those two because the point isn't how good or bad they are; the point is that teams are still willing to spend a ton of money on pitchers in the twilight of their career so the argument that pitchers are "more valuable" to teams five years than today is simply not true.
tumblr_inline_npe1jvtMkM1sqgfba_250.jpg
 

beckdawg

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2B is up the middle and just as criticsl as CF defensively.

I disagree. You can plug a substandard defensive player in at 2B. Teams have done this for years sacrificing defense for offense. For instance, Daniel Murphy, Rougned Odor, and Chase Utley all played over 1000 innings at 2B with negative defensive metrics. I'd make the case that CF is even more important defensively than SS. A CF who can't get to the gaps gives up doubles while a SS/2B who doesn't have range generally speaking is giving up singles. And even if your assertion of 2B being just as important defensively is accurate, there flat out aren't enough CF in the league worth talking about. There were 12 CF who had 2 or higher fWAR and about half of those did it on defense mostly a la Kevin Pillar. There were 17 2B. In other words, if Happ could play CF he's far more valuable there.

The vast majority of CF prospects look something like DJ Wilson does which is to say a 60/50/60 or higher grades on run/throw/field. Happ had 55/55/45. If you have good instincts you can get by with that run grade. For instance, Almora had a 50 run grade but he's got one of the best first steps in baseball. Like wise, you will often see teams skimp a bit on CF arms because the lack of depth at the position. But generally speaking, teams don't skimp on fielding. So, long story short, Happ can probably play CF in a pinch but you don't want him starting 150 games there.

And none of that is to crap on Happ because I think he's a fine 2B prospect. All I'm saying is there's no way he's realistically playing CF full time.
 

TC in Mississippi

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And I would laugh so hard.

Japan is not the bigs. All of these analogies that keep getting pitched are awful.

Paying big dollars for a HS kid (which only you suggested) would not only be INSANE, it would be TREASON to the sport.

There is plenty of video of Otani. You know baseball, watch him yourself leaving the results to the side. I'm talking as a pitcher here. His stuff is as good as I've ever seen and he can command all 4 of his pitches equally. Clayton Kershaw is the only MLB pitcher who you can say that about currently. MLB and NPB scouts have been aware of Otani since he was 12. He isn't a fluke. There isn't a team in baseball that wouldn't take him on their team tomorrow and some teams would have the money to do it. The risk reward says that if you can you do it.
 

beckdawg

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Except that would not get the talks started as those would be back end pieces. The Cubs would have to start with Baez/Kyle

I mean Schwarber is a nonstarter almost certainly in any trade. If they were going to deal him they would have dealt him for Miller. As for Baez, I doubt the cubs would deal him either though I think there's a case to be made you'd be better off with someone like Happ anyways as the main piece. I'm obviously not the best one to support Baez here but to me his variance would be too high for a rebuilding team. Sure if he totally figures out hitting he could be a 5-6 win player with his defense. But, the obvious downside is if he doesn't progress. For my money, if you're trading a star during a rebuild you go with safety. Happ is about as safe as you get outside of generational hitters like Schwarber and Bryant were in the minors. Happ has hit .272/.362/.452 in the minors and is a switch hitter with 20/20 potential. That's pretty safe.

That thinking safe strategy is largely why the cubs are where they are right now. They went with college hitters at the top of the past several drafts and gambled in smaller ways such as trading for Arrieta and drafting pitching lower. Overall though I'm not going to bother getting into specifics about what Quintana or Sale will cost with you because we've largely been down this road before and you place a far higher price on pitching. That's not to say you're wrong but as I mentioned in the reply to TC, if that's the going price for Quintana I'd be interested in him.
 

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