Offseason discussion/rumors

[brett05]

Any prospect deal would center around Trevor Clifton and Ian Happ. Sox would want 2 front line prospects and you would expect either Happ or Jimenez. Clifton has impressed enough to take over as the top arm. Add to it he is close enough to the majors to be a viable impact trade chip.

Then you would expect B list types added in. This would depens on the Sox's needs more than anything. But I'm thinking Mark Zagunis and Jose Paulino

That offer around those two would not get the talks started.

 

[brett05]

I didn't realize Sales was a FA after the season....

If I'm the Sox, I'd trade him for everything they can get this off-season over waiting til deadline where half season rental could net less, chance of injury and get nothing...

Doubt Sales re signs unless Sox offer crazy deal..

Hell.. Knowing this now, if I'm Epstein with a world series title in back pocket I'm not tying up too much money this off-season.

Sales going to get all my attention next off season as Arrieta, and Lackey come off the book..

What a possibility for a top 3 in rotation for 2018

Sales Hendricks Lester

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

The reason you did not realize it or see anyone talking about it is he is not a free agent after 2017. He's got two ultra cheap team options. No one thinks those two options won't be picked up. That's why he's worth at least 4 top 100 specs plus.

 

[CSF77]

Almost none of that is a quote from Theo, most of that is conjecture from different pieces. The only quote is "complement him and allow him to grow into the job". I don't get how Matt Joyce doesn't allow that. Joyce gives the Cubs a lead-off hitter against righties and it allows them to use Heyward in CF as well as Sczcur potentially if the team makes a move with Soler.

The "complement" that Joyce gives is Almora doesn't have to be a regular in the lineup if you can put Joyce in RF and at the top of the lineup and bat Heyward down in the lineup. Getting guys like Jay/Crisp/Bourn doesn't give the Cubs a back-up option at the leadoff spot nor does it give them good defenders in the field. Jay is the closest thing to that but he's a guy with an average walk rate, no power, and no real usable speed. Getting Joyce would also allow the Cubs to sit Heyward more if he continues to be a woefully terrible hitter; Joyce can bat and be a 2-3 WAR player in a way that Bourn, Crisp, and Jay/Almora in RF certainly doesn't allow.

Joyce is also a drastically better hitter from the right side late in games in a high leverage situation than any of those other players.

Not a problem with that.

 

[CSF77]

That offer around those two would not get the talks started.

I've already said that the Cubs are not going to sell the farm. If you feel that any team should have to to cut a deal that is fine. Theo will not.

 

[brett05]

I've already said that the Cubs are not going to sell the farm. If you feel that any team should have to to cut a deal that is fine. Theo will not.

I agree with that and have said all along the Cubs won't pay what a quality young TOR is worth for about a year now.

 

[CSF77]

I agree with that and have said all along the Cubs won't pay what a quality young TOR is worth for about a year now.

I believe the goal they should have is getting Baez at 2B full time and Schwarber as a full time LF. That means they both have to really work hard on their approaches to their weakness's. Baez vs RHP and Schwarber to LHP. Up until then the parts will have to keep moving.

Now on SP I believe that Montgomery will be the 4 with Lackey as the 5.

Now all of this talk about trading for an ace? Why? Jake is the 3 in the rotation. So why do they need to get a 1 to replace him? Did they come up short with what they had? No. so in reality they do not need to push the panic button.

 

[anotheridiot]

I believe the goal they should have is getting Baez at 2B full time and Schwarber as a full time LF. That means they both have to really work hard on their approaches to their weakness's. Baez vs RHP and Schwarber to LHP. Up until then the parts will have to keep moving.

Now on SP I believe that Montgomery will be the 4 with Lackey as the 5.

Now all of this talk about trading for an ace? Why? Jake is the 3 in the rotation. So why do they need to get a 1 to replace him? Did they come up short with what they had? No. so in reality they do not need to push the panic button.

The reason you think about replacing Jake is the fact he said he is not giving any home town discounts and in all honesty, we see if Baltimores ban on the cut pitches will be seen with Jake losing more of his stuff. We have seen him lose more control, his problem seems to be still trying to throw hard when taking some MPH off the pitches might be the way to go. Everyone knows the cubs have money they can spend, these players want to expect they are the ones the team is spending the money on. Otherwise its Lester, Hendricks, oh shit, oh shit, oh shit. This team is going to get the best pitcher they can in the offseason, whether he is an ace moving to a 4 or whatever. There will be 7 starters again for spring training, even though the rotation is set with Lester, hendricks, Jake, Monty and LAckey and lackey is just the 5 because of not throwing two lefties together in a series.

Cubs did not have to go thru new york this year, and we know they will have 3 or 4 aces again.

 

[CSF77]

The reason you think about replacing Jake is the fact he said he is not giving any home town discounts and in all honesty, we see if Baltimores ban on the cut pitches will be seen with Jake losing more of his stuff. We have seen him lose more control, his problem seems to be still trying to throw hard when taking some MPH off the pitches might be the way to go. Everyone knows the cubs have money they can spend, these players want to expect they are the ones the team is spending the money on. Otherwise its Lester, Hendricks, oh shit, oh shit, oh shit. This team is going to get the best pitcher they can in the offseason, whether he is an ace moving to a 4 or whatever. There will be 7 starters again for spring training, even though the rotation is set with Lester, hendricks, Jake, Monty and LAckey and lackey is just the 5 because of not throwing two lefties together in a series.

Cubs did not have to go thru new york this year, and we know they will have 3 or 4 aces again.

Let's see:

They were going to lose 3/5ths in 2018. By cutting Hammel and going to Montgomery it dropped to 2/5th of a turn over. So they did something already.

They are not going to put 2018 ahead of 2017. If Jake moves on they get a free pick and they then spend either cash or talent to fix the issue. This is not a issue in 2017.

Sounds like you are worried. I'm not. They will have Schwarber back. They got to where they are with out him. Add to it now the kids have a ring. That means play off experience. Not to mention there are not many teams that have the weapons that the Cubs do.

So what they "have" to do is replace Fowler. Then they have to figure out who is closing. Those are needs created by F/A movement.

Everything else is just distractions to these issues.

 

[DanTown]

you'd give him 10/$300 which is what the talk is? That's INSANE!

What would you have given Clayton Kershaw when he was 22/23?

300 million is close to 40 WAR over the life of a 10 year deal. I'd probably say the likelihood of that being true from age 23-32 is incredibly high. That's like signing Jon Lester (38.0 WAR since 2007) in terms of value/age as the median/average value. If he's slightly better (Felix Hernandez, Zach Grienke, CC Sabathia were 43-45 WAR) then you're talking a multiple time Cy Young winner. It's a risk of course but I tend to believe in the value of signing a potential front line starter (i.e David Price costs more AAV with less of his prime covered) for four to five years at a minimum to a deal like that. If you're right about Otani (which again, is a lot about human scouting too) then you just acquired a front line starter at age 23 for simply money. Considering the cost that teams put in acquiring front line starters at that age (either via trade or development by using draft picks), being able to simply spend money to get one is incredibly valuable. Think about how much the Cubs would have to give to get Noah Syndegaard (two years older) while only having HALF the control (5 years v 10). How is that much different than money?

It's incredibly rare that all-time pitching prospects hit UFA at age 23 but 30 million AAV (especially going forward) is unlikely to be that bad of a deal unless you completely whiff on his ability to pitch (which is possible but I'd question that since he's dominating that league at such a young age).

The only reason I could be talked out of it is arm issues for imports tends to be anecdotally higher but most of those guys came over at a more advanced age (meaning it was likely harder to stretch their arms out for US pitching).

Also, that cost is covered with the potential to sell your regional cable network in Japan. If Otani costs you 30 million a year but you know that Otani alone means you can sell 10 million dollars worth of Cubs cable starting in 2019 then he really doesn't cost you 30 million, that true cost is only 20 million because it's not as if not signing Otani gives you that access to cable rights.

 

[DanTown]

The reason you did not realize it or see anyone talking about it is he is not a free agent after 2017. He's got two ultra cheap team options. No one thinks those two options won't be picked up. That's why he's worth at least 4 top 100 specs plus.

The White Sox probably think Sale is the more valuable pitcher but I'd definitely consider Quintana to be the better value/asset to get in a trade. He has more control (4 years v 3), he's been more durable (hasn't missed a start in four+ years), and he likely ages better than Sale due to his lack of unorthodox delivery and less reliance on the strikeout to get hitters out. Don't get me wrong, Chris Sale is a fantastic pitcher but that dip in production last year (2.5 less K per 9, drop in swinging strike to 11.3% from 14.6%, hard hit percentage from 25.1% to 31.7%) is very concerning for a guy who didn't miss a start with injury and was in his age 27 season. We obviously need more data but if that year is the "new normal" then Sale is drastically overpriced and who knows where he is in two+ years. Is he the next Verlander (drop in prime year but then rebounds) or the next Lincecum (unorthodox delivery who quickly dropped off from Hall of Fame type career to out of baseball)?

 

[brett05]

What would you have given Clayton Kershaw when he was 22/23?

I am guessing you mean if he was a FA after winning his first Cy Young. He'd be worth a major contract of around $20-25 million per back in 2011-2012 Off Season.

 

[brett05]

The White Sox probably think Sale is the more valuable pitcher but I'd definitely consider Quintana to be the better value/asset to get in a trade. He has more control (4 years v 3), he's been more durable (hasn't missed a start in four+ years), and he likely ages better than Sale due to his lack of unorthodox delivery and less reliance on the strikeout to get hitters out. Don't get me wrong, Chris Sale is a fantastic pitcher but that dip in production last year (2.5 less K per 9, drop in swinging strike to 11.3% from 14.6%, hard hit percentage from 25.1% to 31.7%) is very concerning for a guy who didn't miss a start with injury and was in his age 27 season. We obviously need more data but if that year is the "new normal" then Sale is drastically overpriced and who knows where he is in two+ years. Is he the next Verlander (drop in prime year but then rebounds) or the next Lincecum (unorthodox delivery who quickly dropped off from Hall of Fame type career to out of baseball)?

The two are close absolutely. Q is going to net 3 top 100 specs to get the ball rolling as well. Sale could be the next guy to drop off, or he could get traded to the NL and give Kershaw competition for the best pitcher in the game as his NL stats would show he has strong potential of doing.

But it's still Sale as the clear 1. And that's not just coming from the White Sox, that's all of baseball saying that compared to Q.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The two are close absolutely. Q is going to net 3 top 100 specs to get the ball rolling as well. Sale could be the next guy to drop off, or he could get traded to the NL and give Kershaw competition for the best pitcher in the game as his NL stats would show he has strong potential of doing.

But it's still Sale as the clear 1. And that's not just coming from the White Sox, that's all of baseball saying that compared to Q.

I don't disagree with any of that but there are some that consider Sale a greater injury risk. They were just discussing it on MLB Radio this morning. On the other hand people have been saying that for years and he's proved them wrong so who knows?

 

[DanTown]

The two are close absolutely. Q is going to net 3 top 100 specs to get the ball rolling as well. Sale could be the next guy to drop off, or he could get traded to the NL and give Kershaw competition for the best pitcher in the game as his NL stats would show he has strong potential of doing.

But it's still Sale as the clear 1. And that's not just coming from the White Sox, that's all of baseball saying that compared to Q.

It all comes down to risk. Sale is more likely of the two to win the Cy Young but he's also more likely of the two to be a sub 2 WAR pitcher either due to drop off or injury caused by an unorthodox delivery. Much like the Otani discussion, it really depends on what your needs are. If you're the Red Sox and you already have Price, I'm not sure that Quintana isn't the better fit where as if you're the Astros and you don't have a pitcher on the roster outside of Keuchel, who just had major regression, who is a top 50 SP than you're probably thinking that the risk of Sale is worth it since Quintana doesn't really solve the potential issues.

 

[DanTown]

I am guessing you mean if he was a FA after winning his first Cy Young. He'd be worth a major contract of around $20-25 million per back in 2011-2012 Off Season.

So teams were willing to give Cliff Lee 5/120 (24 million AAV) and Carl Crawford 20 million AAV but they'd only barely go more to sign Kershaw who was younger and more productive? Why? That's insane. Kershaw likely gets 30 million THEN. And Kerhsaw will have made 10 years / 212 million without even being in UFA.

 

[brett05]

I don't disagree with any of that but there are some that consider Sale a greater injury risk. They were just discussing it on MLB Radio this morning. On the other hand people have been saying that for years and he's proved them wrong so who knows?

Exactly...the catastrophic injury prediction has been alive and well for years.

 

[brett05]

It all comes down to risk. Sale is more likely of the two to win the Cy Young but he's also more likely of the two to be a sub 2 WAR pitcher either due to drop off or injury caused by an unorthodox delivery. Much like the Otani discussion, it really depends on what your needs are. If you're the Red Sox and you already have Price, I'm not sure that Quintana isn't the better fit where as if you're the Astros and you don't have a pitcher on the roster outside of Keuchel, who just had major regression, who is a top 50 SP than you're probably thinking that the risk of Sale is worth it since Quintana doesn't really solve the potential issues.

Sale really is no risk at all. You do know why his numbers were down this year, yes? Not being snarky at all here, but it was well publicized.

 

[brett05]

So teams were willing to give Cliff Lee 5/120 (24 million AAV) and Carl Crawford 20 million AAV but they'd only barely go more to sign Kershaw who was younger and more productive? Why? That's insane. Kershaw likely gets 30 million THEN. And Kerhsaw will have made 10 years / 212 million without even being in UFA.

So he got better and will have been paid less. Again, my numbers are inline as is the MAJOR LEAGUE proof that he had in his game at that point. That's why the $300 million is a JOKE. Odds are extremely probable that Otani never plays his worth. Sorry, I am stepping out on a twig based on your comments. I will rip any team including my beloved White Sox who have a solid history in the Asian market that this deal is beyond dumb.

 

[DanTown]

Exactly...the catastrophic injury prediction has been alive and well for years.

They said the same about Lincecum and then he just fell off a cliff without really having the devastating injury.

Age 24-25: HOF level production (14.4 fWAR)
Age 26-27: All-level production (8.1 fWAR)
Age 28-29: Starter production (2.8 fWAR)
Age 30-32: Minor-league production (-.4 fWAR)

Sale has been much more consistent (4.7 to 6.2 WAR) since 2012 but last year was one of his worst WAR / IP seasons.

Just things to think about when it comes to trying to predict the future.

 

[DanTown]

So he got better and will have been paid less. Again, my numbers are inline as is the MAJOR LEAGUE proof that he had in his game at that point. That's why the $300 million is a JOKE. Odds are extremely probable that Otani never plays his worth. Sorry, I am stepping out on a twig based on your comments. I will rip any team including my beloved White Sox who have a solid history in the Asian market that this deal is beyond dumb.

One, of course he'd make more five+ years later.

Two, Kershaw made less because he wasn't actually an UFA at age 22 but I dispute that he wouldn't have gotten a ton when teams had no problem paying for Cliff Lee's 33-37 seasons.

Three, I already explained to you how the price is so much higher because teams with regional cable networks can make up so much of the costs in a way that does not exist for other players. If signing Otani guarantees you 100 million in TV revenue that you'd otherwise never get, that means Otani's true cost is only 200 million. But that revenue exists in his 300 million price that you have to pay for. So now it's 10/200 (which is much more realistic to you most likely) in terms of true cost.