Offseason discussion/rumors

[TC in Mississippi]

Sale really is no risk at all. You do know why his numbers were down this year, yes? Not being snarky at all here, but it was well publicized.

It is a real concern Brett, although I'll agree he's bet the odds so far and might continue. Still bad mechanics can cause injuries and there's not a soul in baseball who will tell you different. That said they don't always cause injuries. Sale is to be commended for realizing that he could lower his velocity at the sake of some high K numbers in order to preserve his arm but that doesn't allay the worries of everyone who sees those mechanics. that doesn't mean that I think Sale is an injury waiting to happen, it's just that depending on circumstance I weight that risk. For instance if I'm Boston with an undisputed ace in Price, and have to give up Moncada, I'd be more comfortable with Quintana.

 

[brett05]

It is a real concern Brett, although I'll agree he's bet the odds so far and might continue. Still bad mechanics can cause injuries and there's not a soul in baseball who will tell you different. That said they don't always cause injuries. Sale is to be commended for realizing that he could lower his velocity at the sake of some high K numbers in order to preserve his arm but that doesn't allay the worries of everyone who sees those mechanics. that doesn't mean that I think Sale is an injury waiting to happen, it's just that depending on circumstance I weight that risk. For instance if I'm Boston with an undisputed ace in Price, and have to give up Moncada, I'd be more comfortable with Quintana.

The problem is TC that good mechanics can cause it too. You never know what's really going to cause the issue. The fact is that throwing overhand is unnatural. It's not good for the body. Since there is no proof of this, let's make some proof and say a bad mechanic in a pitcher causes more injuries. How much more? It's not worth it for Sale's age, body of work, and dominance.

 

[brett05]

They said the same about Lincecum and then he just fell off a cliff without really having the devastating injury.

Age 24-25: HOF level production (14.4 fWAR)
Age 26-27: All-level production (8.1 fWAR)
Age 28-29: Starter production (2.8 fWAR)
Age 30-32: Minor-league production (-.4 fWAR)

Sale has been much more consistent (4.7 to 6.2 WAR) since 2012 but last year was one of his worst WAR / IP seasons.

Just things to think about when it comes to trying to predict the future.

Again see why he was low this past season.

As for Tim, I recall no talk of him falling off because of how he pitches. Sale on the other hand is talked about in all media markets and Sale blows off that talk.

 

[brett05]

One, of course he'd make more five+ years later.

Two, Kershaw made less because he wasn't actually an UFA at age 22 but I dispute that he wouldn't have gotten a ton when teams had no problem paying for Cliff Lee's 33-37 seasons.

Three, I already explained to you how the price is so much higher because teams with regional cable networks can make up so much of the costs in a way that does not exist for other players. If signing Otani guarantees you 100 million in TV revenue that you'd otherwise never get, that means Otani's true cost is only 200 million. But that revenue exists in his 300 million price that you have to pay for. So now it's 10/200 (which is much more realistic to you most likely) in terms of true cost.

Let me correct you on two points. Pitchers 5 years ago were more valuable in their later years than they are now. Secondly television contracts are just that contracts. The teams don't get a single penny more when they spend on FAs. Not a single penny. The only one that gets rich off those moves potentially is the TV company by charging more for commercials.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Oddly enough, despite being virtually no pitching on the market, Jeremy Hellickson has accepted Phillies QO. I think this might signal that teams are unwilling to overpay for lesser pitching just because it's all there is. It's also likely that the trade market for pitching is looking to be robust.

 

[chibears55]

The reason you did not realize it or see anyone talking about it is he is not a free agent after 2017. He's got two ultra cheap team options. No one thinks those two options won't be picked up. That's why he's worth at least 4 top 100 specs plus.

Yea I missed that....

I go back to my original thought then, which is I dont think Reinsdorf will allow a trade like that to the Cubs

But

As a fan id have no problem if Schwarber was offered for Sales, if Sales agrees to extend past these 3 years.

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[brett05]

Yea I missed that....

I go back to my original thought then, which is I dont think Reinsdorf will allow a trade like that to the Cubs

But

As a fan id have no problem if Schwarber was offered for Sales, if Sales agrees to extend past these 3 years.

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If he agrees? You don't even get the conversation started by only offering Kyle. Come on now. You need to have some realism to your offer.

 

[brett05]

Oddly enough, despite being virtually no pitching on the market, Jeremy Hellickson has accepted Phillies QO. I think this might signal that teams are unwilling to overpay for lesser pitching just because it's all there is. It's also likely that the trade market for pitching is looking to be robust.

Very odd. It's very unlikely a pitcher will have a more favorable free agent year anytime soon.

Yes, it makes the trade market that much more in costs to get a decent pitcher.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Very odd. It's very unlikely a pitcher will have a more favorable free agent year anytime soon.

Yes, it makes the trade market that much more in costs to get a decent pitcher.

Ken Rosenthal reported the other day that the White Sox are looking for 2 top prospects and a flyer or two for Sale and 1 and a flyer for Quintana. A Boston columnist speculated that Moncada and Swihart would get Sale. I think that's probably pretty close. If the White Sox got that and also a decent prospect for Frazier they could be contending again in less than 2 years.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

I wouldn't touch Sale. He's a great pitcher but I'm not giving up the farm to get him. Why would we? We're going to be one of the best teams in baseball with out him. All we need to do is make the playoffs and see what happens. Our minor league depth is really, really important. We need wave after wave of good young players to hit the majors so we have sustained success.

I think we need to add rotation depth, as we can't expect all five of our guys to stay healthy again. We'll need capable fill-in starters. But they don't need to be TOR guys. We have Lester, Hendricks and Arrieta already.

Aside from some bullpen help and rotation depth, we can just go with what we have next year. We'll still be favored to win the division. During the season we can identify our weaknesses and make a deal or two at the dead line and just give up one or two good prospects.

The Montgomery deal was HUGE.

 

[beckdawg]

Ken Rosenthal reported the other day that the White Sox are looking for 2 top prospects and a flyer or two for Sale and 1 and a flyer for Quintana. A Boston columnist speculated that Moncada and Swihart would get Sale. I think that's probably pretty close. If the White Sox got that and also a decent prospect for Frazier they could be contending again in less than 2 years.

If that's the going price, I'd part with Happ or Jimenez for Quintana. He honestly strikes me as more this front office's type of pitcher anyways which is to say decent ground ball rate, a tick above average k/9 and a very good bb/9.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I wouldn't touch Sale. He's a great pitcher but I'm not giving up the farm to get him. Why would we? We're going to be one of the best teams in baseball with out him. All we need to do is make the playoffs and see what happens. Our minor league depth is really, really important. We need wave after wave of good young players to hit the majors so we have sustained success.

I think we need to add rotation depth, as we can't expect all five of our guys to stay healthy again. We'll need capable fill-in starters. But they don't need to be TOR guys. We have Lester, Hendricks and Arrieta already.

Aside from some bullpen help and rotation depth, we can just go with what we have next year. We'll still be favored to win the division. During the season we can identify our weaknesses and make a deal or two at the dead line and just give up one or two good prospects.

The Montgomery deal was HUGE.

I tend to agree but the FO is always listening. You never know what might come up or whose name is mentioned. It's just due diligence. I wouldn't mind a BOR starter to compete with Montgomery. Cubs Den had this piece the other day about they types of arms this front office looks for all the time. It's very methodical and thorough. Here's the link:

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2016/11/merging-the-cubs-rotation-and-bullpen-search/

 

[chibears55]

If he agrees? You don't even get the conversation started by only offering Kyle. Come on now. You need to have some realism to your offer.

I wasn't saying only Kyle, I just said I wouldn't be against trading him to get Sales...

Obviously Schwarber would be the main piece going..




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[chibears55]

I wouldn't touch Sale. He's a great pitcher but I'm not giving up the farm to get him. Why would we? We're going to be one of the best teams in baseball with out him. All we need to do is make the playoffs and see what happens. Our minor league depth is really, really important. We need wave after wave of good young players to hit the majors so we have sustained success.

I think we need to add rotation depth, as we can't expect all five of our guys to stay healthy again. We'll need capable fill-in starters. But they don't need to be TOR guys. We have Lester, Hendricks and Arrieta already.

Aside from some bullpen help and rotation depth, we can just go with what we have next year. We'll still be favored to win the division. During the season we can identify our weaknesses and make a deal or two at the dead line and just give up one or two good prospects.

The Montgomery deal was HUGE.

Its more about getting arms for after 2017..

Right now the Cubs have nothing concrete of outside Lester and Hendrick going for them in 2018

They may be set pretty good with position players but are pretty empty in the pitching department after 2017.



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[DanTown]

Let me correct you on two points. Pitchers 5 years ago were more valuable in their later years than they are now.

Yeah, pitchers were more valuable five years ago, that's why David Price and Zach Grienke didn't just sign the two largest contracts for a pitcher ever just last winter.

 

[TL1961]

Yeah, pitchers were more valuable five years ago, that's why David Price and Zach Grienke didn't just sign the two largest contracts for a pitcher ever just last winter.

That just shows they were overvalued.

Neither is among the top 50 most valuable players in 2016.

 

[FrankieLyrical]

If we don't re-sign Dex, is it a lock that Almora will be the CF'er?

 

[Omeletpants]

If we don't re-sign Dex, is it a lock that Almora will be the CF'er?

Nope. He did not prove he has a major league bat.

 

[CSF77]

Yeah, pitchers were more valuable five years ago, that's why David Price and Zach Grienke didn't just sign the two largest contracts for a pitcher ever just last winter.

Not exactly surprising that Zach regressed pitching in Azl. Price continued his string of disappearing in the play offs. :clap: yep best options are to overspend because it like works ya know.

 

[chibears55]

If we don't re-sign Dex, is it a lock that Almora will be the CF'er?

Not a lock that he will be the everyday starter but I think he will get a chance to take it over at some point if he shows he can hit major league pitching consistently in April and May.

I think they'll go get a guy to platoon in CF with him to start and Maddon will eventually go with who hot and hitting.



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