Offseason discussion/rumors

[xer0h0ur]

From what I understand they would expect to get two top level prospects from Sale and one from Quintana.

 

[CSF77]

From what I understand they would expect to get two top level prospects from Sale and one from Quintana.

For sure. That package was 1 of 2 guys in the top 100. Jimenez has superstar upside. Clifton looks MOR to be honest but get it up to 97. Paulino IMO is a BP arm but a lefty that has a 96 MPH fastball holds real value. Mark is MLB ready and could break in as a pure hitter. .274/.360/.486 at Iowa. He is not a superstar but is a player that just produces every day.

It is a solid offer to be honest and pretty realistic on guys that the Cubs would be willing to deal out.

 

[chibears55]

didn't see this discussed anywhere else, but how much would it take to get Sale off the white sox?

Problem is Reinsdorf will never deal anyone of significant to the Cubs..
Even more so now that the Cubs just won it all and are built to continue competing for a championship for a few years..



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[CSF77]

Problem is Reinsdorf will never deal anyone of significant to the Cubs..
Even more so now that the Cubs just won it all and are built to continue competing for a championship for a few years..



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That only matters if he is looking at 2 similar offers.

At the end of the day he is going to take the highest yield vs shutting a team out. What it boils down to is if they are closing the door on this team or keeping it open. They opt for a reset then they have to take back the best returns. Regardless from whom.

 

[TL1961]

That only matters if he is looking at 2 similar offers.

At the end of the day he is going to take the highest yield vs shutting a team out. What it boils down to is if they are closing the door on this team or keeping it open. They opt for a reset then they have to take back the best returns. Regardless from whom.

No, it matters whether comparing two offers or not. It rarelly happpens, because no team wants the player they traded away to be a reminder in the face of their own fans every day.

They won't trade Sale to the Cubs for any return.

 

[CSF77]

No, it matters whether comparing two offers or not. It rarelly happpens, because no team wants the player they traded away to be a reminder in the face of their own fans every day.

They won't trade Sale to the Cubs for any return.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/1742542/

 

[TL1961]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/1742542/

Yeah, you got me. If the Cubs weren't afraid to have Steve Renko on the other side of town, clearly the Sox won't worry about Sale.

Seriously, that was 100 years of no-name players going between teams. Santo at the end of his career, and Sosa in a mistake, when he was considered a bust.

 

[beckdawg]

If Reinsdorf puts a stop to a cubs trade then he's frankly a worse owner than I already thought. You don't lose ground to the cubs by trading Sale or whomever to them. You lose ground by being a shitty team. I've probably said similar things before about in division trades but if you're that scared of dealing in city or division then you may as well resign now. There's only 29 other teams to deal with. It's usually a safe bet that around half of those are going the same direction you are and the other half aren't which basically means there's maybe 15 teams who you'd match up with in any given trade from a buyer/seller standpoint. From there you have to match up from a personnel standpoint. At that point there's usually only 4-5 teams that realistically make sense for any given trade opportunity. As such, if you're cutting off potential deals that make sense for both sides because of arbitrary reasons like being in division or in city you're doing yourself a disservice.

Given what we've seen out of the cubs front office, I honestly believe they will deal with anyone if they think i will make he team better and assuming prices aren't ridiculous.

 

[Omeletpants]

Connie Mack (As) was considered one of the greatest owners of all time and he refused to trade with crosstown rivals Phillies

 

[CSF77]

Your point was they don't trade. They have. Will they? No. Not because they can't. But because Theo won't. He has said that he is not making any major deals this off season. I expect minor deals that involve guys they will lose if they don't for pitching.

As far as a F/A signing I'm seeing John Jay as the most likely. He would get the bulk of a platoon in CF. Theo doesn't trust Almora as a every day player.

On the prospects:

Happ is going nowhere. The fact they started talking platoon in CF points to Happ being the future lead off. They are not committing to anyone that will take an investment here.

Eloy is in the same boat. I believe he becomes the everyday RF in 3 years. If Heyward bails he will have a solid replacement in RF. A OF of Schwarber, Happ and Jimenez is pretty scary.

So Theo is not going to drain the tank for Sale or any other starter. He doesn't have to right now. I believe the commitment is getting Montgomery to harness his stuff bucause his stuff is pretty good and he is still on the good side of 30.

 

[Omeletpants]

If Heyward bails he will have a solid replacement in RF.

I stopped reading at this point. Do you think there is anyway in the world that Heywards opts out of $20M yearly contract when he has the shittiest swing in MLB?

 

[chibears55]

I didn't realize Sales was a FA after the season....

If I'm the Sox, I'd trade him for everything they can get this off-season over waiting til deadline where half season rental could net less, chance of injury and get nothing...

Doubt Sales re signs unless Sox offer crazy deal..

Hell.. Knowing this now, if I'm Epstein with a world series title in back pocket I'm not tying up too much money this off-season.

Sales going to get all my attention next off season as Arrieta, and Lackey come off the book..

What a possibility for a top 3 in rotation for 2018

Sales Hendricks Lester

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[chibears55]

I stopped reading at this point. Do you think there is anyway in the world that Heywards opts out of $20M yearly contract when he has the shittiest swing in MLB?

Even if Hayward starts having good offensive numbers, unless he becomes an MVP candidate with crazy production these next 2 years he not opting out because he will be over age 30 and there no way any other team will offer him more than 20 mil per for 4 or 5 yrs that he will get staying with cubs..

Best case scenario for Epstein is if Jiminez is real deal and ready in 2 or 3 yrs.
Heyward is productive and Epstein can trade him and salary for whatever needed then..

If Heyward don't hit next year , this could end up being the worse contract Epstein has given..
8 yrs 185 mil with no team option



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[DanTown]

The idea that the Cubs should sign bad CF just to sign them is dumb. You already have two guys who are more than capable of playing CF in Almora and Heyward so the idea that you have any sort of need for an OF is beyond short-sighted. What the Cubs truly need is a guy who can lead off and bat against tough righties when you want/need to give Zobrist a day-off from the leadoff spot. Matt Joyce is a guy with good walk rate career versus righties (13%) who also gives you a good bat off the bench when he's not starting. He's a minus defender but with Heyward/Almora next to him, you really just need him to catch what comes out there. He's big and slow but he gets on base a ton from the left side. He also has enough power still (12 HR in 251 PA; .477 slugging v righties last year) that you can't just go after him either.

Joyce - RF
Schwarber - LF
Bryant - 3B
Rizzo - 1B
Russell - SS
Contreras - C
Heyward/Almora (Bats 8th) - CF
Baez - 2B
Pitcher

Bench - Zobrist, Almora/Heyward

I prefer Joyce over guys like Jay, Crisp, or Bourn because the latter two are simply incapable of being solid players anymore (even in platoon advantages) and Jay is the righty version of Albert Almora that is a low ceiling player that doesn't help solve a need. At least with Joyce, the Cubs have a guy who has a great track record of getting on and being a difference maker against right handed pitching. And while Joyce is a bad defender, the Cubs can survive him out there for six innings then turn it over to Heyward/Almora with a lead.

 

[DanTown]

Even if Hayward starts having good offensive numbers, unless he becomes an MVP candidate with crazy production these next 2 years he not opting out because he will be over age 30 and there no way any other team will offer him more than 20 mil per for 4 or 5 yrs that he will get staying with cubs..

Best case scenario for Epstein is if Jiminez is real deal and ready in 2 or 3 yrs.
Heyward is productive and Epstein can trade him and salary for whatever needed then..

If Heyward don't hit next year , this could end up being the worse contract Epstein has given..
8 yrs 185 mil with no team option



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He's going to have 5 years / 108 million at age 29 left if he opts out after 2018 and 4/88 at age 30 if he opts out after 2019. While it's obviously a non-starter if his offense is where it is now, I can see him opting out of either of those years and securing an extra year or two in FA if he's still a GG OF who with the bat is still a 4+ WAR player. If he can get 6/120 instead of 4/88, that's a lot better for him. Or if he can get 5/100. Teams will still have money and you expect contracts to keep going up.

I really don't see the downside to Heyward's future years. If he's a GG guy who has a OPS around 115 (the six years previous to this one) then he's well worth 20 million a year in 2018 and beyond.

 

[chibears55]

He's going to have 5 years / 108 million at age 29 left if he opts out after 2018 and 4/88 at age 30 if he opts out after 2019. While it's obviously a non-starter if his offense is where it is now, I can see him opting out of either of those years and securing an extra year or two in FA if he's still a GG OF who with the bat is still a 4+ WAR player. If he can get 6/120 instead of 4/88, that's a lot better for him. Or if he can get 5/100. Teams will still have money and you expect contracts to keep going up.

I really don't see the downside to Heyward's future years. If he's a GG guy who has a OPS around 115 (the six years previous to this one) then he's well worth 20 million a year in 2018 and beyond.

Heyward remaining contract after 2018 (1st chance to opt out)

29 2019 20 mil
30 2020 21 mil
31 2021 21 mil
32 2022 22 mil
33 2023 22 mil

Again.. If he basically a .260 to .270 hitter with minimal power , whose best asset is fielding..

I don't see a team in their right mind offering him a 6+ yr deal for the same or more annually then what he'll get from cubs if he stays the remaining 5 yrs..

He himself would be taking a big risk opting out of this deal just to see if he can get an extra year or two added on..

Cause again, I doubt a team will pay him 20 to 22 mil per at age 33 34 35 if he a 270 hitter with minimal power..
Plus his defense will be starting to decline at those ages

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[CSF77]

Connie Mack (As) was considered one of the greatest owners of all time and he refused to trade with crosstown rivals Phillies

I stopped reading at this point. Do you think there is anyway in the world that Heywards opts out of $20M yearly contract when he has the shittiest swing in MLB?

I was disappointed in Lester's first year also.

 

[CSF77]

Connie Mack (As) was considered one of the greatest owners of all time and he refused to trade with crosstown rivals Phillies

The idea that the Cubs should sign bad CF just to sign them is dumb. You already have two guys who are more than capable of playing CF in Almora and Heyward so the idea that you have any sort of need for an OF is beyond short-sighted. What the Cubs truly need is a guy who can lead off and bat against tough righties when you want/need to give Zobrist a day-off from the leadoff spot. Matt Joyce is a guy with good walk rate career versus righties (13%) who also gives you a good bat off the bench when he's not starting. He's a minus defender but with Heyward/Almora next to him, you really just need him to catch what comes out there. He's big and slow but he gets on base a ton from the left side. He also has enough power still (12 HR in 251 PA; .477 slugging v righties last year) that you can't just go after him either.

Joyce - RF
Schwarber - LF
Bryant - 3B
Rizzo - 1B
Russell - SS
Contreras - C
Heyward/Almora (Bats 8th) - CF
Baez - 2B
Pitcher

Bench - Zobrist, Almora/Heyward

I prefer Joyce over guys like Jay, Crisp, or Bourn because the latter two are simply incapable of being solid players anymore (even in platoon advantages) and Jay is the righty version of Albert Almora that is a low ceiling player that doesn't help solve a need. At least with Joyce, the Cubs have a guy who has a great track record of getting on and being a difference maker against right handed pitching. And while Joyce is a bad defender, the Cubs can survive him out there for six innings then turn it over to Heyward/Almora with a lead.

This comes from Theo:

Heyward and Almora jump out as potential successors to Fowler in center, though the former has far more experience in right field and Epstein isn’t yet eager to hand the role to the latter. Instead, he’d add someone to “complement [Almora] and allow him to grow into the job” – likely a lefty-swinging center fielder, per Sullivan. As this year’s free agent list shows, center fielders who should come at modest prices and are either left-handed or switch-hitters include Jon Jay, Coco Crisp and Michael Bourn. Picking up one of them (or anyone else) would further crowd the Cubs’ outfield, perhaps making a Soler trade even more probable than it appears now. Epstein remains bullish on the 24-year-old, but he isn’t ruling out moving him.

 

[DanTown]

This comes from Theo:

Heyward and Almora jump out as potential successors to Fowler in center, though the former has far more experience in right field and Epstein isn’t yet eager to hand the role to the latter. Instead, he’d add someone to “complement [Almora] and allow him to grow into the job” – likely a lefty-swinging center fielder, per Sullivan. As this year’s free agent list shows, center fielders who should come at modest prices and are either left-handed or switch-hitters include Jon Jay, Coco Crisp and Michael Bourn. Picking up one of them (or anyone else) would further crowd the Cubs’ outfield, perhaps making a Soler trade even more probable than it appears now. Epstein remains bullish on the 24-year-old, but he isn’t ruling out moving him.

Almost none of that is a quote from Theo, most of that is conjecture from different pieces. The only quote is "complement him and allow him to grow into the job". I don't get how Matt Joyce doesn't allow that. Joyce gives the Cubs a lead-off hitter against righties and it allows them to use Heyward in CF as well as Sczcur potentially if the team makes a move with Soler.

The "complement" that Joyce gives is Almora doesn't have to be a regular in the lineup if you can put Joyce in RF and at the top of the lineup and bat Heyward down in the lineup. Getting guys like Jay/Crisp/Bourn doesn't give the Cubs a back-up option at the leadoff spot nor does it give them good defenders in the field. Jay is the closest thing to that but he's a guy with an average walk rate, no power, and no real usable speed. Getting Joyce would also allow the Cubs to sit Heyward more if he continues to be a woefully terrible hitter; Joyce can bat and be a 2-3 WAR player in a way that Bourn, Crisp, and Jay/Almora in RF certainly doesn't allow.

Joyce is also a drastically better hitter from the right side late in games in a high leverage situation than any of those other players.

 

[brett05]

Theo has typically been very aggressive with Japanese position players and it would not surprise me if he was all-in on Otani. You're talking a guy who could start a game and then move to the field to keep his bat in the lineup. Or a guy who maybe can be your leadoff hitter and platoon in RF/CF with Heyward if his batting numbers are at all indicative of his value.

He's worth more than the other "busts" (who mostly busted due to injury and coming over too late in their career to correct flaws) where as Otani will be 22 in spring training. I'd sign him and let his talent decide to be a full-time hitter, full-time pitcher, or a dual player.

you'd give him 10/$300 which is what the talk is? That's INSANE!