I dont get the backend. Keirmaier and Almora are about the same player with Almora being under control with more bat potential. Colome isnt a shut down closer and Edwards has bigger potential and under control. Happ Soler and another arm for Archer. I can see that. I dont get the back end part in the Cubs head.
After further inspection, Colome is under control until 2021. He did have an outstanding year, but I still dont want to give up Edwards. Maybe something else for him. I still dont get the Almora for Keirmaier. Almora is Theo first draft pick and is incredible in CF. I just dont get that swap.
If we're working under the assumption that the Rays would take that trade Bowden suggested, think the basic workings of the trade are Soler + Happ for Archer, Edwards for Colome and Almora for Keimaier. If that's something the rays find reasonable, I tend to agree with your thoughts. Almora vs Keimaier is probably in the cubs favor which... i mean I'm sure they can get more for him in a separate trade so I doubt they'd really mind excluding that. Colome vs Edwards is 4 years of control against 6 for Edwards. That's probably in TB's favor but again I'm not sure it's enough to matter to hold up a trade.
I've been reading various Rays stuff trying to get a feel for what their fans want.
There is apparent interest in Montero as I've mentioned before. So, adding him into a Happ/Soler package makes some sense likely with $5-10 mil to offset his contract a bit. As a reference point, McCann was making $17 mil/year and the Yankees ate $5.5 mil each of the following 2 years. He was also worth a 50 grade prospect and a guy not in the yankees top 30 right now. In cubs terms, that's roughly equivalent to #5-13-ish prospect so guys like Zagunis, Underwood, De La Cruz, Clifton, Albertos, Hudson, Dewes, DJ Wilson, and Eddy Martinez.
From my point of view, I'd argue that Happ/Soler/Montero and say $5 mil is probably too little. Their OF depth is pretty porous right now. So, I could potentially see 5 years of control on Szczur interesting them or conversely, Mark Zagunis as they are both sort of similar 4th OF types. Szczur isn't going to be a star or even likely a starter but he's cheap and better than what they have. Also, they don't have much prospect depth above A ball in the OF. From there, I think cubs would likely need to add some pitching from their second tier be that Johnson, Stinnett, Williams, Tseng, Steele or Sands.
Overall, that may seem potentially cheap but the Rays front office has said they intend to be competitive. They might be able to net more quality by tanking a season or two but if they indeed are trying to remain competitive, a trade like this gives them 3 useful pieces today in Soler, Montero and Szczur/Zagunis, a quality prospect in Happ and a depth arm. And if you're essentially counting Soler as a top 50 type prospect he was, that's a top 25 prospect in Happ, a top 50 guy in Soler, two 50ish grade guys if we're counting that as Montero's value and a 45 grade arm.
