Offseason discussion/rumors

[CSF77]

Not entirely sure that's an accurate representation. The Royals won the world series last year with a ton of guys who play like Almora. In my estimation you would ideally having a mix of high OBP guys at the top of the line up and guys with good contact rates below them. Honestly I'm more concerned with K rate than walk rate. There's numerous examples of guys who can survive as regulars with a 4-5% walk rate so long as they have a 10-13% k rate. Walks generally speaking are better than balls in play but I think there's situations where the latter is better and the cubs often struggled getting guys home once they were on base because they weren't great a putting the ball in play.

They play to their park. That park supports contact hitters with the gaps in the OF. Wriggly is a smaller park and that factor is lessened.

The things that always hold true are OBA, D and baserunning. With stable pitching. Power can be repressed or increased by the wind but OBA gives more opertunity. Baserunning maxamizes it.

 

[CSF77]

If Fowler was giving + UZR in Wrig and-5 before. This leads to believe the park is easier to play CF in. He did not just improve like that based off of his ability. It was a result of a smaller OF to cover.

So pushing a top D CF with contact over OBA.

I feel that he would factor more in a bigger park where his D covers the gaps more and his hitting can exploit the wider OF gaps.

Not a bad player but it feels square fitting into a round hole.

 

[CSF77]

My point was more Torres + Candelario rather than the 4 players they got.

Candelario was pretty much equal to McKenny at the time. They were going in opposite directions so it was smart to sell on McKenny when they did.

 

[anotheridiot]

Heyward pulls a 10% walk rate. Ive thought about him leading off in CF with Zo as the RH lead off. The main problem I've seen with it is the bottom of the line up becomes RH. Heyward was a LH bat that split up Russell, Contreras and Baez.

Thats kind of a moot point, because if Heyward was hitting he would have never been taken out of the 2 hole, let alone have batted 7th or 8th.

 

[chibears55]

Cubs can always take another shot at Charlie Blackmon from Rockies..
Maybe 3rd time a charm

I just hope this CBA gets resolved by next week so they can start making some moves come winter meetings..

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[CSF77]

Thats kind of a moot point, because if Heyward was hitting he would have never been taken out of the 2 hole, let alone have batted 7th or 8th.

Fowler, Heyward, Zobrist, Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Russell, More Montero

Then after Schwarber went DL

Fowler, Heyward, Bryant, Rizzo, Zobrist, Russell, Montero, Baez

Now with Contreras as the main C it removes a LH bat lower in the order. But as you see Joe uses lefties to break up the righties. Regardless of what is happening.

 

[beckdawg]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/209527456/5-hypothetical-black-friday-trades/

5. Rays trade LHP Drew Smyly to the Cubs for OF Jorge Soler
I'm proposing this as a one-for-one that draws on the high cost of pitching in this marketplace, though I confess that assessing Soler's trade value these days is not easily done. He has huge potential, and his remaining contract ($17.7 million over four years, with the option of opting into arbitration after 2018) is extremely reasonable, especially for a financially cautious team like the Rays. But 765 plate appearances into his career, Soler, in addition to battling hamstring issues, just hasn't proven himself as a consistent threat at the Major League level yet.

I don't know about the Rays moving ace Chris Archer, but trading Smyly seems to make a lot of sense. They've got rotation depth, and Smyly's rising arbitration cost (he made $3.75 million last year and has two more rounds of arbitration before becoming a free agent after 2018) makes him a good candidate to be dealt out of that depth.

The Cubs need pitching depth, and it would be interesting to see how they'd apply Smyly to that need. He could round out their rotation now that Jason Hammel is a free agent. Or the Cubs could stretch out Mike Montgomery and take advantage of Smyly's strong career splits against left-handers (.202/.243/.334 opponents' slash) and his 2013 success in a relief role with Detroit to employ him out of the 'pen.

Perhaps Smyly alone isn't enough to land Soler. Perhaps this deal would have to be a bigger one involving other pieces (such as Rays closer Alex Colome). But the Cubs and Rays seem like natural trading partners right now.

 

[CSF77]

If they were packing Smyly and Colome for Soler and something then that is a deal they should pursue.

 

[Omeletpants]

We would be lucky to get anything resembling major league talent for Soler

 

[beckdawg]

If they were packing Smyly and Colome for Soler and something then that is a deal they should pursue.

I obviously was in favor of the idea to start with but I found it interesting a third party writer thought Soler might get the cubs more. Given where pitching is priced I sort of expected it to go the other way hence why I initially suggested Montero. Still think Montero makes sense to the Rays. I'd love to find some form of a trade where the cubs net Smyly and Brent Honeywell. I'm not sure how that would work though because unless they deal Longoria they don't really need another 3B and I'd imagine the cubs would need to include at least Candelario.

Taylor Guerrieri also seems interesting. Colome would also be interesting as his splits are better vs LH despite being a RHP. My only thing is I'm not sure they would deal hm if they are thinking of trying to compete.

 

[CSF77]

I obviously was in favor of the idea to start with but I found it interesting a third party writer thought Soler might get the cubs more. Given where pitching is priced I sort of expected it to go the other way hence why I initially suggested Montero. Still think Montero makes sense to the Rays. I'd love to find some form of a trade where the cubs net Smyly and Brent Honeywell. I'm not sure how that would work though because unless they deal Longoria they don't really need another 3B and I'd imagine the cubs would need to include at least Candelario.

Taylor Guerrieri also seems interesting. Colome would also be interesting as his splits are better vs LH despite being a RHP. My only thing is I'm not sure they would deal hm if they are thinking of trying to compete.

They need control more than anything.

Soler: 2016: 11.7 BB% 25% SO. 284 AB .238/.333/.436 12 HR's. 1 HR per 23.66 AB's. So say he is healthy and keeps those avg's. Having a DH would help keep him rested more. So say he gets 500 AB's. about 21 HR's at that rate.

BABIP .276 below league avg. 2015 .361 So you can expect around a .300. Which will increase his BA at least up to .250.

So he has potential to be more. His raw BB and SO% are decent. He just needs to stay healthy and have more luck.

 

[anotheridiot]

Fowler, Heyward, Zobrist, Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Russell, More Montero

Then after Schwarber went DL

Fowler, Heyward, Bryant, Rizzo, Zobrist, Russell, Montero, Baez

Now with Contreras as the main C it removes a LH bat lower in the order. But as you see Joe uses lefties to break up the righties. Regardless of what is happening.

I dont get why you are quoting me on this. The point was that Heyward never hit and was dropped out of the 2 hole. You dont pay the guy 184 million to hit 7th. I guess eventually there will be some calls for Theo to take some responsibility for this signing, a position that was really not all that important to make a change at with the addition of Zobrist and knowing Bryant would be playing the outfield more. Soler made 1 error and had 4 assists in 95 games, but Heyward making 10 assists and 2 errors in 150 games was such a huge lift? Thats cub fans for you, buy the big names like the old yankees while preaching about the kids.

There are people feeling the potential with Pierce Johnson will be met this year and the cubs having him competing for the 5th spot since he is not getting the message in AAA and thinking his talent can use a Bosio touch.

 

[CSF77]

I dont get why you are quoting me on this. The point was that Heyward never hit and was dropped out of the 2 hole. You dont pay the guy 184 million to hit 7th. I guess eventually there will be some calls for Theo to take some responsibility for this signing, a position that was really not all that important to make a change at with the addition of Zobrist and knowing Bryant would be playing the outfield more. Soler made 1 error and had 4 assists in 95 games, but Heyward making 10 assists and 2 errors in 150 games was such a huge lift? Thats cub fans for you, buy the big names like the old yankees while preaching about the kids.

There are people feeling the potential with Pierce Johnson will be met this year and the cubs having him competing for the 5th spot since he is not getting the message in AAA and thinking his talent can use a Bosio touch.

Heyward had a bad sophomore season and bounced back. I doubt the signing will end up negative. Too much talent there.

Johnson may not start in the majors. He wasn't the staff ace in Iowa. That was Buchanan.

You don't go to the majors as a starter unless you are the best starter at AAA. Hendricks was and he went directly to a starter

Johnson has some work to do

 

[DanTown]

Pierce Johnson got moved out of the rotation in AAA to the bullpen by the end of the year. Ryan Williams is probably the best option if you're looking for a future arm but he's struggled to strike guys out and he had a "regression" year last year in terms of being a guy who doesn't walk people and doesn't give up HR. But it's tough to judge HR numbers in Iowa as the league typically has a lot of offensive production.

 

[CSF77]

If things stay status que in the staff I see it as

Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta, Montgomery, Lackey

CL: Edwards
7-8th Strop & Rondon

MR: Grimm and 1 spot open for completion for RH

LH: Zan and Rosscup with a few looking in.

Ideally they look at Johnson as a 2 inning guy and he excels at it. That is the trend right now and a ex starter should have the durability for it.

 

[chibears55]

Apparently the Cubs and Rays are talking again...

Supposedly the Cubs interest is Archer
Rays are needing bats and want a pitcher in return for Archer ..

Word is..
Cubs send Happ Soler and a pitcher for Archer

Chris Archer 28 is an established starter ..
5 yrs of cheap control, last 2 yrs are team options..

Its a questionable one for me..those are 2 potential solid bats
But
I think I'd do the deal

Archer young, controlled and could be a fixture at top 3 of rotation for at least next 5 yrs..

Soler blocked in LF and RF now and Happ probably a year away and don't really have a set position now (2B,LF,CF) all filled right now

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[beckdawg]

Apparently the Cubs and Rays are talking again...

Supposedly the Cubs interest is Archer
Rays are needing bats and want a pitcher in return for Archer ..

Word is..
Cubs send Happ Soler and a pitcher for Archer

Chris Archer 28 is an established starter ..
5 yrs of cheap control, last 2 yrs are team options..

Its a questionable one for me..those are 2 potential solid bats
But
I think I'd do the deal

Archer young, controlled and could be a fixture at top 3 of rotation for at least next 5 yrs..

Soler blocked in LF and RF now and Happ probably a year away and don't really have a set position now (2B,LF,CF) all filled right now

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Source? Not doubting just interesting in reading whatever i can.... i'm jonesin for some mlb action!

 

[beckdawg]

Also, I'm ok with Happ and Soler for Archer. What i'm more curious about is who else is going. If it's Cease, De La Cruz, Clifton or Jose Albertos... I don't know. If it's Underwood, Pierce Johnson, Jake Stinnett or Ryan Williams I'm pretty fine. I don't think they can deal Hatch as it's not been a full year since he was drafted. Hudson I'm sort of iffy on. Rest of the top 30 arms are Rosario(fine with), Zastryzny(doubt they'd move him for depth reasons), Felix Pena(fine with), Jen-ho Tseng(fine with), Corey Black(fine with), Jose Paulino(iffy) and Bailey Clark who was also just drafted.

I'd be some what surprised if the pitcher being discussed wasn't on of the first 4 though. Underwood might also be realistic.

Edit: dug a bit more into this According to this link you can sort of project surplus value on players. Soler was a bit more difficult as he only has 4 years of control left. So i just divided the 8.1 WAR they had for "Hitters #26-50" by 7 and then times 3 and then subtracted that from the $38.2M they had for hitters prospects in that range.

Given that, Happ and Soler have around $88.5 mil in surplus value. In this article, fangraphs calculated Archer's surplus value at $128.5 mil. So, we're roughly $40 mil off. That ends up being around two 80-100 type hitting prospects. Underwood was the #77 prospect going into this season. He had a bit of a down year but think you can feasibly argue he'd be roughly worth one of those. Cease and De La Cruz are also likely similar in value.

From there you're still short. If they want Montero think you could argue something like Montero and a 15-40ish prospect in the cubs system. I'd be sort of ok with that though like I said I really don't wanna give up Cease or De La Cruz. If they could give up two other minor parts I'd be ok. For example, Szczur and Ryan Williams might provide them with cheap players they can readily plug in and might be more desirable than higher upside guys farther away.

Also for what it's worth, this article , suggested Archer's value might be more like $114.9 mil. That would be around $26.5 mil in surplus value over happ/soler. In that scenario, something like Underwood and Montero might be "equal" value. Think the fangraphs case might be best case on Archer while the el birdos might be a touch low.

 

[CSF77]

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/11/cubs-talks-rays-reportedly-included-chris-archer.php

 

[CSF77]

Soler: expendable

Happ: lacks high ended D that the Cubs prefer. If he ends up a LF he is Blocked by Schwarber. 2B blocked by Baez. They also have 3 years of control of Zobrist who is a older version of Happ.

So both are expendable.

On pitching I would expect Underwood or Stennet with Steele or Sands. All are around AA level and would impact with in 2 years.

I doubt the lower level guys will be talked about due to them being too early in their development